Summary And Analysis Of Thinking Fast And Slow

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Thinking, Fast and Slow

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN 13 : 1429969350
Total Pages : 511 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (299 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking, Fast and Slow by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Thinking, Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: *Major New York Times Bestseller *More than 2.6 million copies sold *One of The New York Times Book Review's ten best books of the year *Selected by The Wall Street Journal as one of the best nonfiction books of the year *Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient *Daniel Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, world-famous psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Topping bestseller lists for almost ten years, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a contemporary classic, an essential book that has changed the lives of millions of readers.

Decisive

Author : Chip Heath
Publisher : Random House Canada
ISBN 13 : 0307361144
Total Pages : 326 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (73 download)

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Book Synopsis Decisive by : Chip Heath

Download or read book Decisive written by Chip Heath and published by Random House Canada. This book was released on 2013-03-26 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The four principles that can help us to overcome our brains' natural biases to make better, more informed decisions--in our lives, careers, families and organizations. In Decisive, Chip Heath and Dan Heath, the bestselling authors of Made to Stick and Switch, tackle the thorny problem of how to overcome our natural biases and irrational thinking to make better decisions, about our work, lives, companies and careers. When it comes to decision making, our brains are flawed instruments. But given that we are biologically hard-wired to act foolishly and behave irrationally at times, how can we do better? A number of recent bestsellers have identified how irrational our decision making can be. But being aware of a bias doesn't correct it, just as knowing that you are nearsighted doesn't help you to see better. In Decisive, the Heath brothers, drawing on extensive studies, stories and research, offer specific, practical tools that can help us to think more clearly about our options, and get out of our heads, to improve our decision making, at work and at home.

Summary - Thinking, Fast and Slow:

Author : Instant-Summary
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN 13 : 9781982040475
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (44 download)

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Book Synopsis Summary - Thinking, Fast and Slow: by : Instant-Summary

Download or read book Summary - Thinking, Fast and Slow: written by Instant-Summary and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2017-12-25 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thinking, Fast and Slow - A Complete and Detailed Summary! The first chapter begins with Daniel Kahneman's description of two main characters of the book, neither of which are people. He refers to something that he calls System 1 and System 2. System 1 is dedicated to thinking fast. It almost solely relies on intuition and almost entirely disregards information. System 1 is in control every time we do an activity that requires quick thinking and reactions. For example, System 1 in in control when we drive, when we want to read other people's facial expressions, when we answer to questions that require quick answers, etc. Kahneman states that System 1 is involuntary and operates entirely on its own. System 2 thinks slowly and always relies on information and almost never on intuition. System 2 is in control when we try to solve difficult math problem, when we want to focus our attention on the voice of person in a room full of people, when we fill in tax forms, or during any other events that are based on awareness. System 2 requires energy, because it operates voluntarily. Here Is a Preview of What You Will Get: - A summarized version of the book, with approx. 60 pages. - You will find the book analyzed to further strengthen your knowledge. - Fun multiple-choice quizzes, along with answers to help you learn about the book. Get a copy, and learn everything about Thinking, Fast and Slow.

Noise

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Little, Brown
ISBN 13 : 031645138X
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (164 download)

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Book Synopsis Noise by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

The Undoing Project

Author : Michael Lewis
Publisher : National Geographic Books
ISBN 13 : 0393354776
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (933 download)

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Book Synopsis The Undoing Project by : Michael Lewis

Download or read book The Undoing Project written by Michael Lewis and published by National Geographic Books. This book was released on 2017-10-31 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Brilliant. . . . Lewis has given us a spectacular account of two great men who faced up to uncertainty and the limits of human reason.” —William Easterly, Wall Street Journal Forty years ago, Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky wrote a series of breathtakingly original papers that invented the field of behavioral economics. One of the greatest partnerships in the history of science, Kahneman and Tversky’s extraordinary friendship incited a revolution in Big Data studies, advanced evidence-based medicine, led to a new approach to government regulation, and made much of Michael Lewis’s own work possible. In The Undoing Project, Lewis shows how their Nobel Prize–winning theory of the mind altered our perception of reality.

Enlightenment Now

Author : Steven Pinker
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0698177886
Total Pages : 578 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (981 download)

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Book Synopsis Enlightenment Now by : Steven Pinker

Download or read book Enlightenment Now written by Steven Pinker and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2018-02-13 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INSTANT NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER A NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF 2018 ONE OF THE ECONOMIST'S BOOKS OF THE YEAR "My new favorite book of all time." --Bill Gates If you think the world is coming to an end, think again: people are living longer, healthier, freer, and happier lives, and while our problems are formidable, the solutions lie in the Enlightenment ideal of using reason and science. By the author of the new book, Rationality. Is the world really falling apart? Is the ideal of progress obsolete? In this elegant assessment of the human condition in the third millennium, cognitive scientist and public intellectual Steven Pinker urges us to step back from the gory headlines and prophecies of doom, which play to our psychological biases. Instead, follow the data: In seventy-five jaw-dropping graphs, Pinker shows that life, health, prosperity, safety, peace, knowledge, and happiness are on the rise, not just in the West, but worldwide. This progress is not the result of some cosmic force. It is a gift of the Enlightenment: the conviction that reason and science can enhance human flourishing. Far from being a naïve hope, the Enlightenment, we now know, has worked. But more than ever, it needs a vigorous defense. The Enlightenment project swims against currents of human nature--tribalism, authoritarianism, demonization, magical thinking--which demagogues are all too willing to exploit. Many commentators, committed to political, religious, or romantic ideologies, fight a rearguard action against it. The result is a corrosive fatalism and a willingness to wreck the precious institutions of liberal democracy and global cooperation. With intellectual depth and literary flair, Enlightenment Now makes the case for reason, science, and humanism: the ideals we need to confront our problems and continue our progress.

The Great Mental Models, Volume 1

Author : Shane Parrish
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0593719972
Total Pages : 209 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (937 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 by : Shane Parrish

Download or read book The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

Get Smart!

Author : Brian Tracy
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0399183795
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (991 download)

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Book Synopsis Get Smart! by : Brian Tracy

Download or read book Get Smart! written by Brian Tracy and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2017-03-14 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the secrets for how to think and act like the most successful people in the world and reap the rewards! In today’s constantly changing world, you have to be smart to get ahead. But the average person uses only about two percent of their mental ability. How can we learn to unleash our brain’s full potential to maximize our opportunities, like the most successful people do? In Get Smart!, acclaimed success expert and bestselling author Brian Tracy reveals simple, proven ways to tap into our natural thinking talents and abilities and make quantum leaps toward achieving our dreams. In this indispensable guide, you’ll learn to: · Train your brain to think in ways that create successful results · Recognize and exploit growth opportunities in any situation · Identify and eliminate negative patterns holding you back · Plan, act, and achieve goals with greater precision and speed Whether you want to increase sales, bolster creativity, or better navigate life’s unexpected changes, Get Smart! will help you tap into your powerful mental resources to obtain the results you want and reap the rewards successful people enjoy.

Judgment Under Uncertainty

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521284141
Total Pages : 574 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (841 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment Under Uncertainty by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Avoiding Data Pitfalls

Author : Ben Jones
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119278163
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Avoiding Data Pitfalls by : Ben Jones

Download or read book Avoiding Data Pitfalls written by Ben Jones and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-11-19 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Avoid data blunders and create truly useful visualizations Avoiding Data Pitfalls is a reputation-saving handbook for those who work with data, designed to help you avoid the all-too-common blunders that occur in data analysis, visualization, and presentation. Plenty of data tools exist, along with plenty of books that tell you how to use them—but unless you truly understand how to work with data, each of these tools can ultimately mislead and cause costly mistakes. This book walks you step by step through the full data visualization process, from calculation and analysis through accurate, useful presentation. Common blunders are explored in depth to show you how they arise, how they have become so common, and how you can avoid them from the outset. Then and only then can you take advantage of the wealth of tools that are out there—in the hands of someone who knows what they're doing, the right tools can cut down on the time, labor, and myriad decisions that go into each and every data presentation. Workers in almost every industry are now commonly expected to effectively analyze and present data, even with little or no formal training. There are many pitfalls—some might say chasms—in the process, and no one wants to be the source of a data error that costs money or even lives. This book provides a full walk-through of the process to help you ensure a truly useful result. Delve into the "data-reality gap" that grows with our dependence on data Learn how the right tools can streamline the visualization process Avoid common mistakes in data analysis, visualization, and presentation Create and present clear, accurate, effective data visualizations To err is human, but in today's data-driven world, the stakes can be high and the mistakes costly. Don't rely on "catching" mistakes, avoid them from the outset with the expert instruction in Avoiding Data Pitfalls.

Thinking in Systems

Author : Donella Meadows
Publisher : Chelsea Green Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1603581480
Total Pages : 242 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking in Systems by : Donella Meadows

Download or read book Thinking in Systems written by Donella Meadows and published by Chelsea Green Publishing. This book was released on 2008-12-03 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The classic book on systems thinking—with more than half a million copies sold worldwide! "This is a fabulous book... This book opened my mind and reshaped the way I think about investing."—Forbes "Thinking in Systems is required reading for anyone hoping to run a successful company, community, or country. Learning how to think in systems is now part of change-agent literacy. And this is the best book of its kind."—Hunter Lovins In the years following her role as the lead author of the international bestseller, Limits to Growth—the first book to show the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet—Donella Meadows remained a pioneer of environmental and social analysis until her untimely death in 2001. Thinking in Systems is a concise and crucial book offering insight for problem solving on scales ranging from the personal to the global. Edited by the Sustainability Institute’s Diana Wright, this essential primer brings systems thinking out of the realm of computers and equations and into the tangible world, showing readers how to develop the systems-thinking skills that thought leaders across the globe consider critical for 21st-century life. Some of the biggest problems facing the world—war, hunger, poverty, and environmental degradation—are essentially system failures. They cannot be solved by fixing one piece in isolation from the others, because even seemingly minor details have enormous power to undermine the best efforts of too-narrow thinking. While readers will learn the conceptual tools and methods of systems thinking, the heart of the book is grander than methodology. Donella Meadows was known as much for nurturing positive outcomes as she was for delving into the science behind global dilemmas. She reminds readers to pay attention to what is important, not just what is quantifiable, to stay humble, and to stay a learner. In a world growing ever more complicated, crowded, and interdependent, Thinking in Systems helps readers avoid confusion and helplessness, the first step toward finding proactive and effective solutions.

Behavioral Insights

Author : Michael Hallsworth
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262539403
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Insights by : Michael Hallsworth

Download or read book Behavioral Insights written by Michael Hallsworth and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2020-09-01 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The definitive introduction to the behavioral insights approach, which applies evidence about human behavior to practical problems. Our behavior is strongly influenced by factors that lie outside our conscious awareness, although we tend to underestimate the power of this “automatic” side of our behavior. As a result, governments make ineffective policies, businesses create bad products, and individuals make unrealistic plans. In contrast, the behavioral insights approach applies evidence about actual human behavior—rather than assumptions about it—to practical problems. This volume in the MIT Press Essential Knowledge series, written by two leading experts in the field, offers an accessible introduction to behavioral insights, describing core features, origins, and practical examples. These insights have opened up new ways of addressing some of the biggest challenges faced by societies, changing the way that governments, businesses, and nonprofits work in the process. This book shows how the approach is grounded in a concern with practical problems, the use of evidence about human behavior to address those problems, and experimentation to evaluate the impact of the solutions. It gives an overview of the approach's origins in psychology and behavioral economics, its early adoption by the UK's pioneering “nudge unit,” and its recent expansion into new areas. The book also provides examples from across different policy areas and guidance on how to run a behavioral insights project. Finally, the book outlines the limitations and ethical implications of the approach, and what the future holds for this fast-moving area.

The Art of Thinking Clearly

Author : Rolf Dobelli
Publisher : Harper Collins
ISBN 13 : 0062359800
Total Pages : 269 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis The Art of Thinking Clearly by : Rolf Dobelli

Download or read book The Art of Thinking Clearly written by Rolf Dobelli and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2014-05-06 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A world-class thinker counts the 100 ways in which humans behave irrationally, showing us what we can do to recognize and minimize these “thinking errors” to make better decisions and have a better life Despite the best of intentions, humans are notoriously bad—that is, irrational—when it comes to making decisions and assessing risks and tradeoffs. Psychologists and neuroscientists refer to these distinctly human foibles, biases, and thinking traps as “cognitive errors.” Cognitive errors are systematic deviances from rationality, from optimized, logical, rational thinking and behavior. We make these errors all the time, in all sorts of situations, for problems big and small: whether to choose the apple or the cupcake; whether to keep retirement funds in the stock market when the Dow tanks, or whether to take the advice of a friend over a stranger. The “behavioral turn” in neuroscience and economics in the past twenty years has increased our understanding of how we think and how we make decisions. It shows how systematic errors mar our thinking and under which conditions our thought processes work best and worst. Evolutionary psychology delivers convincing theories about why our thinking is, in fact, marred. The neurosciences can pinpoint with increasing precision what exactly happens when we think clearly and when we don’t. Drawing on this wide body of research, The Art of Thinking Clearly is an entertaining presentation of these known systematic thinking errors--offering guidance and insight into everything why you shouldn’t accept a free drink to why you SHOULD walk out of a movie you don’t like it to why it’s so hard to predict the future to why shouldn’t watch the news. The book is organized into 100 short chapters, each covering a single cognitive error, bias, or heuristic. Examples of these concepts include: Reciprocity, Confirmation Bias, The It-Gets-Better-Before-It-Gets-Worse Trap, and the Man-With-A-Hammer Tendency. In engaging prose and with real-world examples and anecdotes, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

Do Nothing

Author : Celeste Headlee
Publisher : Harmony
ISBN 13 : 1984824740
Total Pages : 290 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (848 download)

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Book Synopsis Do Nothing by : Celeste Headlee

Download or read book Do Nothing written by Celeste Headlee and published by Harmony. This book was released on 2020-03-10 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “A welcome antidote to our toxic hustle culture of burnout.”—Arianna Huffington “This book is so important and could truly save lives.”—Elizabeth Gilbert “A clarion call to work smarter [and] accomplish more by doing less.”—Adam Grant We work feverishly to make ourselves happy. So why are we so miserable? Despite our constant search for new ways to optimize our bodies and minds for peak performance, human beings are working more instead of less, living harder not smarter, and becoming more lonely and anxious. We strive for the absolute best in every aspect of our lives, ignoring what we do well naturally and reaching for a bar that keeps rising higher and higher. Why do we measure our time in terms of efficiency instead of meaning? Why can’t we just take a break? In Do Nothing, award-winning journalist Celeste Headlee illuminates a new path ahead, seeking to institute a global shift in our thinking so we can stop sabotaging our well-being, put work aside, and start living instead of doing. As it turns out, we’re searching for external solutions to an internal problem. We won’t find what we’re searching for in punishing diets, productivity apps, or the latest self-improvement schemes. Yet all is not lost—we just need to learn how to take time for ourselves, without agenda or profit, and redefine what is truly worthwhile. Pulling together threads from history, neuroscience, social science, and even paleontology, Headlee examines long-held assumptions about time use, idleness, hard work, and even our ultimate goals. Her research reveals that the habits we cling to are doing us harm; they developed recently in human history, which means they are habits that can, and must, be broken. It’s time to reverse the trend that’s making us all sadder, sicker, and less productive, and return to a way of life that allows us to thrive.

Slack

Author : Tom DeMarco
Publisher : Crown Currency
ISBN 13 : 0767907698
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (679 download)

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Book Synopsis Slack by : Tom DeMarco

Download or read book Slack written by Tom DeMarco and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2002-04-09 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If your company’s goal is to become fast, responsive, and agile, more efficiency is not the answer--you need more slack. Why is it that today’s superefficient organizations are ailing? Tom DeMarco, a leading management consultant to both Fortune 500 and up-and-coming companies, reveals a counterintuitive principle that explains why efficiency efforts can slow a company down. That principle is the value of slack, the degree of freedom in a company that allows it to change. Implementing slack could be as simple as adding an assistant to a department and letting high-priced talent spend less time at the photocopier and more time making key decisions, or it could mean designing workloads that allow people room to think, innovate, and reinvent themselves. It means embracing risk, eliminating fear, and knowing when to go slow. Slack allows for change, fosters creativity, promotes quality, and, above all, produces growth. With an approach that works for new- and old-economy companies alike, this revolutionary handbook debunks commonly held assumptions about real-world management, and gives you and your company a brand-new model for achieving and maintaining true effectiveness.

Superforecasting

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Mind Hacks

Author : Tom Stafford
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 144939096X
Total Pages : 398 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (493 download)

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Book Synopsis Mind Hacks by : Tom Stafford

Download or read book Mind Hacks written by Tom Stafford and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2004-11-22 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The brain is a fearsomely complex information-processing environment--one that often eludes our ability to understand it. At any given time, the brain is collecting, filtering, and analyzing information and, in response, performing countless intricate processes, some of which are automatic, some voluntary, some conscious, and some unconscious.Cognitive neuroscience is one of the ways we have to understand the workings of our minds. It's the study of the brain biology behind our mental functions: a collection of methods--like brain scanning and computational modeling--combined with a way of looking at psychological phenomena and discovering where, why, and how the brain makes them happen.Want to know more? Mind Hacks is a collection of probes into the moment-by-moment works of the brain. Using cognitive neuroscience, these experiments, tricks, and tips related to vision, motor skills, attention, cognition, subliminal perception, and more throw light on how the human brain works. Each hack examines specific operations of the brain. By seeing how the brain responds, we pick up clues about the architecture and design of the brain, learning a little bit more about how the brain is put together.Mind Hacks begins your exploration of the mind with a look inside the brain itself, using hacks such as "Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation: Turn On and Off Bits of the Brain" and "Tour the Cortex and the Four Lobes." Also among the 100 hacks in this book, you'll find: Release Eye Fixations for Faster Reactions See Movement When All is Still Feel the Presence and Loss of Attention Detect Sounds on the Margins of Certainty Mold Your Body Schema Test Your Handedness See a Person in Moving Lights Make Events Understandable as Cause-and-Effect Boost Memory by Using Context Understand Detail and the Limits of Attention Steven Johnson, author of "Mind Wide Open" writes in his foreword to the book, "These hacks amaze because they reveal the brain's hidden logic; they shed light on the cheats and shortcuts and latent assumptions our brains make about the world." If you want to know more about what's going on in your head, then Mind Hacks is the key--let yourself play with the interface between you and the world.