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Subjective Expected Utility Theory With Small Worlds
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Book Synopsis Planning within Complex Urban Systems by : Shih-Kung Lai
Download or read book Planning within Complex Urban Systems written by Shih-Kung Lai and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-17 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Imagine living in a city where people could move freely and buildings could be replaced at minimal cost. Reality cannot be further from such. Despite this imperfect world in which we live, urban planning has become integral and critical especially in the face of rapid urbanization in many developing and developed countries. This book introduces the axiomatic/experimental approach to urban planning and addresses the criticism of the lack of a theoretical foundation in urban planning. With the rise of the complexity movement, the book is timely in its depiction of cities as complex systems and explains why planning from within is useful in the face of urban complexity. It also includes policy implications for the Chinese cities in the context of axiomatic/experimental planning theory.
Book Synopsis Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty by : Mark Machina
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty written by Mark Machina and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-11-14 with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. - Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance - Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings - Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Book Synopsis The Market Mind Hypothesis by : Patrick Schotanus
Download or read book The Market Mind Hypothesis written by Patrick Schotanus and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2023-10-04 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is economics’ missing link? Recent economic crises have had a devastating impact on society. Worryingly, they gravely risked a collapse of the financial system. These crises also painfully revealed economics’ blind spots. Crucially, economics is not an innocent bystander but central to the problem. In this pioneering book, Patrick Schotanus explains that economics’ mechanical worldview is the ontological error which leads to flawed thinking and faulty practices. The Market Mind Hypothesis (MMH) thus calls it "mechanical economics": it not only erroneously views but also dangerously treats the economy as a machine, the market as an automaton, and its agents as robots. Inspired by heterodox economic and leading cognitive thinkers, this book offers an alternative paradigm. Central to MMH’s psychophysical worldview is the fact that consumers, investors, and other participants are conscious beings and that their minds’ extension makes consciousness a reality in markets, exemplified by market mood. Specifically, denial of the complex mind~matter exchanges as the essence of markets means the extended mind~body problem is economics’ elephant in the room. The book argues that if mechanical economics is the answer, we have been asking the wrong questions. Moreover, we will not solve our economic predicaments by doubling down on the assumption of rationality, nor by identifying yet another behavioural bias. Instead, scholars and students of economics and finance as well as finance practitioners need to investigate—through cognitive economics—the deep links between markets and minds to better understand both. With a foreword by investment strategist Russell Napier, an intermezzo by neuroscientist and complexity pioneer Scott Kelso, and an afterword by 4E cognition philosopher Julian Kiverstein.
Book Synopsis The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis by : Sanjit Dhami
Download or read book The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis written by Sanjit Dhami and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-14 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This first volume of The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis covers the opening topic found in this definitive introduction to the subject: the behavioral economics of risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity. It is an essential guide for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students seeking a concise and focused text on this important subject, and examines how the decision maker chooses his optimal action in the presence of risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity. This updated extract from Dhami's leading textbook allows the reader to pursue subsections of this vast and rapidly growing field and to tailor their reading to their specific interests in behavioural economics.
Book Synopsis Elgar Companion to Herbert Simon by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Download or read book Elgar Companion to Herbert Simon written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-04-12 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Honoring the life and work of Herbert Simon, this illuminating Companion provides an in-depth survey of one of the most prolific social scientists of our age. Mirroring the breadth of Simon’s studies, chapters analyze his contributions to artificial intelligence, economics, entrepreneurship, management, psychology and other fields.
Book Synopsis Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes by : P. Humphreys
Download or read book Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes written by P. Humphreys and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2000-04-01 with total page 567 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains an edited selection of papers presented at the Eighth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making, held in Budapest. Together they span a wide range of new developments in studies of decision making, the practice of decision analysis and the development of decision-aiding technology.The volume is arranged in sections: Societal Decision Making; Organizational Decision Making; Aiding the Structuring of Small Scale Decision Problems, and Tracing Decision Processes.The emphasis is on decision processes and structures and their applications, rather than formal modelling in isolation, thus reflecting current developments in research and practice which follow from the understanding of the nature and operation of decision theoretical models gained during the 1970's.The fifth section, A Symposium on the Validity of Studies on Heuristics and Biases, is of a different nature. The papers take stock of the considerable volume of work investigation ``heuristics and biases'' in decision making over the past decade, and their implication for theory and practice.
Book Synopsis The Language of Game Theory by : Adam Brandenburger
Download or read book The Language of Game Theory written by Adam Brandenburger and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains eight papers written by Adam Brandenburger and his co-authors over a period of 25 years. These papers are part of a program to reconstruct game theory in order to make how players reason about a game a central feature of the theory. The program OCo now called epistemic game theory OCo extends the classical definition of a game model to include not only the game matrix or game tree, but also a description of how the players reason about one another (including their reasoning about other players' reasoning). With this richer mathematical framework, it becomes possible to determine the implications of how players reason for how a game is played. Epistemic game theory includes traditional equilibrium-based theory as a special case, but allows for a wide range of non-equilibrium behavior. Sample Chapter(s). Foreword (39 KB). Introduction (132 KB). Chapter 1: An Impossibility Theorem on Beliefs in Games (299 KB). Contents: An Impossibility Theorem on Beliefs in Games (Adam Brandenburger and H Jerome Keisler); Hierarchies of Beliefs and Common Knowledge (Adam Brandenburger and Eddie Dekel); Rationalizability and Correlated Equilibria (Adam Brandenburger and Eddie Dekel); Intrinsic Correlation in Games (Adam Brandenburger and Amanda Friedenberg); Epistemic Conditions for Nash Equilibrium (Robert Aumann and Adam Brandenburger); Lexicographic Probabilities and Choice Under Uncertainty (Lawrence Blume, Adam Brandenburger, and Eddie Dekel); Admissibility in Games (Adam Brandenburger, Amanda Friedenberg and H Jerome Keisler); Self-Admissible Sets (Adam Brandenburger and Amanda Friedenberg). Readership: Graduate students and researchers in the fields of game theory, theoretical computer science, mathematical logic and social neuroscience."
Book Synopsis Taming Uncertainty by : Ralph Hertwig
Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
Book Synopsis Economic Evolution, Learning, and Complexity by : Uwe Cantner
Download or read book Economic Evolution, Learning, and Complexity written by Uwe Cantner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The twelve papers in this collection grew out of the workshop on "Eco nomic Evolution, Learning, and Complexity" held at the University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany on May 23-25, 1997. The Augsburg workshop was the second of two events in the Euroconference Series on Evolutionary Economics, the first of which was held in Athens, Greece in September 1993. A special issue of the Journal of Evolutionary Econo mics (1993(4)) edited by Yannis Katsoulacos on "Evolutionary and Neo classical Perspectives on Market Structure and Economic Growth" con tains selected papers from the Athens conference. The Athens conference explored neoclassical and evolutionary perspectives on technological competition and increasing returns. It helped to identify the dis tinguishing features of evolutionary scholarship. The Augsburg workshop was more oriented toward exploring methodological issues in evolutiona of the papers employed new me ry and related scholarship. A number thods, such as genetic programming and experimental analysis, some developed new econometric techniques or raised new empirical issues in evolutionary economics, and some relied on simulation techniques. Twelve papers covering a range of areas were selected for this collection. The papers address central issues in evolutionary and Schumpeterian accounts of industrial competition, learning, and innovation.
Book Synopsis Identity, Capabilities, and Changing Economics by : John B. Davis
Download or read book Identity, Capabilities, and Changing Economics written by John B. Davis and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2024-02 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mainstream economics assumes economic agents act and make decisions to maximize their utility. This model of economic behavior, based on rational choice theory, has come under increasing attack in economics because it does not accurately reflect the way people behave and reason. The shift towards a more realistic account of economic agents has been mostly associated with the rise of behavioral economics, which views individuals through the lens of bounded rationality. Identity, Capabilities, and Changing Economics goes further and uses identity analysis to build on this critique of the utility conception of individuals, arguing it should be replaced by a conception of economic agents in an uncertain world as socially embedded and identified with their capabilities. Written by one of the world's leading philosophers of economics, the book develops a new approach to economics' theory of the individual, explaining individuals as adaptive and reflexive rather than utility maximizing.
Book Synopsis Language Of Game Theory, The: Putting Epistemics Into The Mathematics Of Games by : Adam Brandenburger
Download or read book Language Of Game Theory, The: Putting Epistemics Into The Mathematics Of Games written by Adam Brandenburger and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-03-12 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains eight papers written by Adam Brandenburger and his co-authors over a period of 25 years. These papers are part of a program to reconstruct game theory in order to make how players reason about a game a central feature of the theory. The program — now called epistemic game theory — extends the classical definition of a game model to include not only the game matrix or game tree, but also a description of how the players reason about one another (including their reasoning about other players' reasoning). With this richer mathematical framework, it becomes possible to determine the implications of how players reason for how a game is played. Epistemic game theory includes traditional equilibrium-based theory as a special case, but allows for a wide range of non-equilibrium behavior.
Book Synopsis Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications by : Ward Edwards
Download or read book Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications written by Ward Edwards and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Conference on "Utility: Theories, Measurements, and Applications" met at the Inn at Pasatiempo in Santa Cruz, California, from June II to 15, 1989. The all-star cast of attendees are listed as authors in the Table of Contents of this book (see p. V), except for Soo Hong Chew and Amos Tversky. The purpose of the conference, and of National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8823012 that supported it, was to confront proponents of new generalized theories of utility with leading decision analysts com mitted to the implementation, in practice, of the more traditional theory that these new theories reject. That traditional model is variously iden tified in this book as expected utility or subjectively expected utility maximization (EU or SEU for short) and variously attributed to von Neumann and Morgenstern or Savage. I had feared that the conference might consist of an acrimonious debate between Olympian normative theorists uninterested in what people actually do and behavioral modelers obsessed with the cognitive illusions and uninterested in helping people to make wise decisions. I was entirely wrong. The conferees, in two dramatic straw votes at the open ing session, unanimously endorsed traditional SEU as the appropriate normative model and unanimously agreed that people don't act as that model requires. (These votes had a profound impact on my thinking; detail about them and about that impact is located in Chapter 10.
Book Synopsis Karl Popper and Situational Analysis by : Alfonso Palacio-Vera
Download or read book Karl Popper and Situational Analysis written by Alfonso Palacio-Vera and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2024-08-02 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ‘Situational Analysis’ represents Karl Popper’s methodological proposal for the social sciences. Although it has been widely studied and interpreted, this book argues that Situational Analysis remains underestimated and undeveloped and, if properly reformulated, could yet become a broad methodological framework that encompasses both the ‘historical’ social sciences and a large section of the ‘theoretical’ social sciences. The first part of this book develops this idea by returning to Popper’s texts. This book calls for both a reformulation of Situational Analysis and a clarification of the status and role of Popper’s ‘Rationality Principle’. This book also develops Situational Analysis by addressing two aspects of the Problem-Situation facing individual actors that are only sketched out in Popper’s work: institutions and expectations. The second part of this book utilizes the reformulated version of Situational Analysis to shed light on the core methodological differences across some of the most widespread approaches in contemporary economics and sociology. In particular, by showing that many of these approaches are variants of the reformulated version of Situational Analysis presented in the first part of this book, this book argues that apparent methodological differences across these approaches may be reinterpreted as differences in the way social scientists reconstruct the Problem-Situation facing individual actors. This book will be vital reading for academic economists, sociologists, philosophers of science, and other social scientists interested in methodology.
Book Synopsis Decision Theory with a Human Face by : Richard Bradley
Download or read book Decision Theory with a Human Face written by Richard Bradley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.
Download or read book Decision Making written by David E. Bell and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1988-10-28 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A compilation of different approaches--normative, descriptive,and prescriptive--develops this integrated analysis of decision-making that emphasizes the contributions of various disciplinary interests.
Download or read book Early Utilitarians written by Ken Binmore and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-09-11 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People who put the public good before their own self interest have been admired throughout history. But what is the public good? Sages and prophets who think they know better what is good for us than we know ourselves held sway on this subject for more than two thousand years. The world had to wait for the Enlightenment that burst upon the world in the eighteenth century for an account of the public good free from the prejudices of the privileged classes. Utilitarianism is our name for this new way of thinking about morality. Francis Hutcheson encapsulated its aims by inventing its catchphrase “The greatest happiness for the greatest number’’ fifty years before Jeremy Bentham, to whom the slogan is usually attributed. But what is happiness? Why did Jeremy Bentham and John Stuart Mill prefer to speak of utility? How did economists develop this notion? Does it really make sense to compare the utilities of different people? Bob may complain more than Alice in the dentist’s chair, but is he really suffering more? Why should I put the sum of everybody’s utility before my own utility? This short book asks how such questions arose from the social and political realities of the times in which the early utilitarians lived. Nobody need fear being crushed by heavy metaphysical reasoning or incomprehensible algebra when this story is told. This book argues that the answers to all the questions that the early utilitarians found so difficult are transparent when we stand upon their shoulders to look back upon their work. The problem for the early utilitarians was to free themselves from the prejudices of their time. The lesson for us is perhaps that we too need to free ourselves from the prejudices of our own time.
Book Synopsis The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory by : James M. Joyce
Download or read book The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory written by James M. Joyce and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1999-04-13 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the non-specialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a 'representation theorem' that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. The book solves a long-standing problem for Jeffrey's theory by showing for the first time how to obtain a unique utility and probability representation for preferences and judgements of comparative likelihood. The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true. The most complete and robust defence of causal decision theory available.
