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Why Stock Markets Crash

Author : Didier Sornette
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400885094
Total Pages : 449 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Stock Markets Crash by : Didier Sornette

Download or read book Why Stock Markets Crash written by Didier Sornette and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-21 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

Six Days in October

Author : Karen Blumenthal
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1442488913
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (424 download)

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Book Synopsis Six Days in October by : Karen Blumenthal

Download or read book Six Days in October written by Karen Blumenthal and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2013-02-12 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over six terrifying, desperate days in October 1929, the fabulous fortune that Americans had built in stocks plunged with a fervor never seen before. At first, the drop seemed like a mistake, a mere glitch in the system. But as the decline gathered steam, so did the destruction. Over twenty-five billion dollars in individual wealth was lost, vanished, gone. People watched their dreams fade before their very eyes. Investing in the stock market would never be the same. Here, Wall Street Journal bureau chief Karen Blumenthal chronicles the six-day period that brought the country to its knees, from fascinating tales of key stock-market players, like Michael J. Meehan, an immigrant who started his career hustling cigars outside theaters and helped convince thousands to gamble their hard-earned money as never before, to riveting accounts of the power struggles between Wall Street and Washington, to poignant stories from those who lost their savings—and more—to the allure of stocks and the power of greed. For young readers living in an era of stock-market fascination, this engrossing account explains stock-market fundamentals while bringing to life the darkest days of the mammoth crash of 1929.

The Great Crash, 1929

Author : John Kenneth Galbraith
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Crash, 1929 by : John Kenneth Galbraith

Download or read book The Great Crash, 1929 written by John Kenneth Galbraith and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Kenneth Galbraith's classic study of the Wall Street Crash of 1929.

The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Was Not a Bubble

Author : Bernard C. Beaudreau
Publisher : Cambridge Scholars Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1527542033
Total Pages : 146 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (275 download)

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Book Synopsis The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Was Not a Bubble by : Bernard C. Beaudreau

Download or read book The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Was Not a Bubble written by Bernard C. Beaudreau and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2019-10-23 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929, Yale University Economics Professor Irving Fisher remained steadfast in his view that the boom in prices had been warranted, pointing to the myriad innovations of the 1920s, including the introduction of the electric unit drive and utility-supplied power. Dismissed by most, this view has since given way to Alan Greenspan’s view of irrational exuberance. This book presents a series of contemporary and period writings which rehabilitate the fundamentals view, showing why Irving Fisher was right. Whereas Fisher was unable to provide a convincing narrative for the crash, these writings point to the Hoover Administration’s tariff initiative, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill, as the key element which contributed to both the boom and the crash.

The Stock Market Crash of 1929

Author : Sabrina Crewe
Publisher : Gareth Stevens Publishing LLLP
ISBN 13 : 9780836834161
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (341 download)

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Book Synopsis The Stock Market Crash of 1929 by : Sabrina Crewe

Download or read book The Stock Market Crash of 1929 written by Sabrina Crewe and published by Gareth Stevens Publishing LLLP. This book was released on 2004-12-15 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses the stock market crash of 1929 and the following Great Depression, examining the causes of the crash, the impact on U.S. history, and people who influenced these events.

The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash

Author : Harold Bierman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789798400629
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (6 download)

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Book Synopsis The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash by : Harold Bierman

Download or read book The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash written by Harold Bierman and published by . This book was released on with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Warning

Author : Joseph Ensign Granville
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis The Warning by : Joseph Ensign Granville

Download or read book The Warning written by Joseph Ensign Granville and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A History of the United States in Five Crashes

Author : Scott Nations
Publisher : HarperCollins
ISBN 13 : 0062467298
Total Pages : 367 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (624 download)

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Book Synopsis A History of the United States in Five Crashes by : Scott Nations

Download or read book A History of the United States in Five Crashes written by Scott Nations and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2017-06-13 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this absorbing, smart, and accessible blend of economic and cultural history, Scott Nations, a longtime trader, financial engineer, and CNBC contributor, takes us on a journey through the five significant stock market crashes in the past century to reveal how they defined the United States today The Panic of 1907: When the Knickerbocker Trust Company failed, after a brazen attempt to manipulate the stock market led to a disastrous run on the banks, the Dow lost nearly half its value in weeks. Only billionaire J.P. Morgan was able to save the stock market. Black Tuesday (1929): As the newly created Federal Reserve System repeatedly adjusted interest rates in all the wrong ways, investment trusts, the darlings of that decade, became the catalyst that caused the bubble to burst, and the Dow fell dramatically, leading swiftly to the Great Depression. Black Monday (1987): When "portfolio insurance," a new tool meant to protect investments, instead led to increased losses, and corporate raiders drove stock prices above their real values, the Dow dropped an astonishing 22.6 percent in one day. The Great Recession (2008): As homeowners began defaulting on mortgages, investment portfolios that contained them collapsed, bringing the nation's largest banks, much of the economy, and the stock market down with them. The Flash Crash (2010): When one investment manager, using a runaway computer algorithm that was dangerously unstable and poorly understood, reacted to the economic turmoil in Greece, the stock market took an unprecedentedly sudden plunge, with the Dow shedding 998.5 points (roughly a trillion dollars in valuation) in just minutes. The stories behind the great crashes are filled with drama, human foibles, and heroic rescues. Taken together they tell the larger story of a nation reaching enormous heights of financial power while experiencing precipitous dips that alter and reset a market where millions of Americans invest their savings, and on which they depend for their futures. Scott Nations vividly shows how each of these major crashes played a role in America's political and cultural fabric, each providing painful lessons that have strengthened us and helped us to build the nation we know today. A History of the United States in Five Crashes clearly and compellingly illustrates the connections between these major financial collapses and examines the solid, clear-cut lessons they offer for preventing the next one.

Anatomy of Global Stock Market Crashes

Author : Gagari Chakrabarti
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 8132204638
Total Pages : 69 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (322 download)

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Book Synopsis Anatomy of Global Stock Market Crashes by : Gagari Chakrabarti

Download or read book Anatomy of Global Stock Market Crashes written by Gagari Chakrabarti and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-05 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work is an exploration of the global market dynamics, their intrinsic natures, common trends and dynamic interlinkages during the stock market crises over the last twelve years. The study isolates different phases of crisis and differentiates between any crisis that remains confined to the region and those that take up a global dimension. The latent structure of the global stock market, the inter-regional and intra-regional stock market dynamics around the crises are analyzed to get a complete picture of the structure of the global stock market. The study further probing into the inherent nature of the global stock market in generating crisis finds the global market to be chaotic thus making the system intrinsically unstable or at best to follow knife-edge stability. The findings have significant bearing at theoretical level and on policy decisions.

The Coming Crash in the Housing Market

Author : John R. Talbott
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 9780071422208
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (222 download)

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Book Synopsis The Coming Crash in the Housing Market by : John R. Talbott

Download or read book The Coming Crash in the Housing Market written by John R. Talbott and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2003-04-28 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The Coming Crash in the Housing Market" shows homeowners how to avoid owing more to lenders than their houses are worth--known as an "underwater" mortgage--and reveals commonsense steps for protecting one's assets when the bottom falls out.

Safety-First Retirement Planning

Author : Wade Donald Pfau
Publisher : Retirement Researcher Guid
ISBN 13 : 9781945640063
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Safety-First Retirement Planning by : Wade Donald Pfau

Download or read book Safety-First Retirement Planning written by Wade Donald Pfau and published by Retirement Researcher Guid. This book was released on 2019-10 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two fundamentally different philosophies for retirement income planning, which I call probability-based and safety-first, diverge on the critical issue of where a retirement plan is best served: in the risk/reward trade-offs of a diversified and aggressive investment portfolio that relies primarily on the stock market, or in the contractual protections of insurance products that integrate the power of risk pooling and actuarial science alongside investments. The probability-based approach is generally better understood by the public. It advocates using an aggressive investment portfolio with a large allocation to stocks to meet retirement goals. My earlier book How Much Can I Spend in Retirement? A Guide to Investment-Based Retirement Strategies provides an extensive investigation of probability-based approaches. But this investments-only attitude is not the optimal way to build a retirement income plan. There are pitfalls in retirement that we are less familiar with during the accumulation years. The nature of risk changes. Longevity risk is the possibility of living longer than planned, which could mean not having resources to maintain the retiree's standard of living. And once retirement distributions begin, market downturns in the early years can disproportionately harm retirement sustainability. This is sequence-of-returns risk, and it acts to amplify the impacts of market volatility in retirement. Traditional wealth management is not equipped to handle these new risks in a fulfilling way. More assets are required to cover spending goals over a possibly costly retirement triggered by a long life and poor market returns. And yet, there is no assurance that assets will be sufficient. For retirees who are worried about outliving their wealth, probability-based strategies can become excessively conservative and stressful. This book focuses on the other option: safety-first retirement planning. Safety-first advocates support a more bifurcated approach to building retirement income plans that integrates insurance with investments, providing lifetime income protections to cover spending. With risk pooling through insurance, retirees effectively pay an insurance premium that will provide a benefit to support spending in otherwise costly retirements that could deplete an unprotected investment portfolio. Insurance companies can pool sequence and longevity risks across a large base of retirees, much like a traditional defined-benefit company pension plan or Social Security, allowing for retirement spending that is more closely aligned with averages. When bonds are replaced with insurance-based risk pooling assets, retirees can improve the odds of meeting their spending goals while also supporting more legacy at the end of life, especially in the event of a longer-than-average retirement. We walk through this thought process and logic in steps, investigating three basic ways to fund a retirement spending goal: with bonds, with a diversified investment portfolio, and with risk pooling through annuities and life insurance. We consider the potential role for different types of annuities including simple income annuities, variable annuities, and fixed index annuities. I explain how different annuities work and how readers can evaluate them. We also examine the potential for whole life insurance to contribute to a retirement income plan. When we properly consider the range of risks introduced after retirement, I conclude that the integrated strategies preferred by safety-first advocates support more efficient retirement outcomes. Safety-first retirement planning helps to meet financial goals with less worry. This book explains how to evaluate different insurance options and implement these solutions into an integrated retirement plan.

How the Republicans Caused the Stock Market Crash of 1929

Author : Bernard Beaudreau
Publisher : iUniverse
ISBN 13 : 0595379087
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (953 download)

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Book Synopsis How the Republicans Caused the Stock Market Crash of 1929 by : Bernard Beaudreau

Download or read book How the Republicans Caused the Stock Market Crash of 1929 written by Bernard Beaudreau and published by iUniverse. This book was released on 2005-12 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an alternative view of the Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 as having resulted from government intervention, specifically from a case of flawed government policy in the form of the Republican party's 1928 election promise of an upward tariff revision―the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill. As such, the stock market in particular and the market mechanism in general were not to blame, government was. Where the market was to blame, however, was in its reaction to the massive technology shock that was electric power-based extremely-high-throughput, continuous-flow mass production techniques (EHTCFPT) pioneered at the Ford Motor Company's Highland Park plant in Detroit, Michigan. Specifically, aggregate income and expenditure failed to rise commensurately with vastly increased productive capacity, resulting in under income.

The Stock Market Crash of 1929

Author : Brenda Lange
Publisher : Infobase Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1438104286
Total Pages : 121 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (381 download)

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Book Synopsis The Stock Market Crash of 1929 by : Brenda Lange

Download or read book The Stock Market Crash of 1929 written by Brenda Lange and published by Infobase Publishing. This book was released on 2007 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On October 29, 1929, more than 16 million stock shares were sold at the New York Stock Exchange, and by the end of November investors had lost more than $100 billion in assets. This book looks at the events that helped usher one of the grimmest periods in American history.

Mass Production, the Stock Market Crash, and the Great Depression

Author : Bernard C. Beaudreau
Publisher : iUniverse
ISBN 13 : 0595323340
Total Pages : 206 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (953 download)

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Book Synopsis Mass Production, the Stock Market Crash, and the Great Depression by : Bernard C. Beaudreau

Download or read book Mass Production, the Stock Market Crash, and the Great Depression written by Bernard C. Beaudreau and published by iUniverse. This book was released on 2004-06 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and historians view the events of the 1920s, the stock market boom and crash, the Great Depression and the New Deal, as being largely independent. This work presents an integrated, empirically-consistent view of this important period arguing that all of these events can be traced back to a paradigm technology shock, namely the electrification of U.S. industry from 1910 to 1926. The author goes from electrification through the stock market boom to the tariffs of the late 20s to the stock market crash and depression followed by the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933.

The 1929 Stock Market Crash

Author : Marty Gitlin
Publisher : ABDO
ISBN 13 : 9781604530506
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis The 1929 Stock Market Crash by : Marty Gitlin

Download or read book The 1929 Stock Market Crash written by Marty Gitlin and published by ABDO. This book was released on 2008-01-01 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores the 1929 Stock Market Crash and how that event has sculpted societies, the sciences, and politics.

The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash

Author : Harold Bierman Jr.
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN 13 : 0313007993
Total Pages : 180 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash by : Harold Bierman Jr.

Download or read book The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash written by Harold Bierman Jr. and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 1998-04-16 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Attempting to reveal the real causes of the 1929 stock market crash, Bierman refutes the popular belief that wild speculation had excessively driven up stock market prices and resulted in the crash. Although he acknowledges some prices of stocks such as utilities and banks were overprices, reasonable explanations exist for the level and increase of all other securities stock prices. Indeed, if stocks were overpriced in 1929, then they more even more overpriced in the current era of staggering growth in stock prices and investment in securities. The causes of the 1929 crash, Bierman argues, lie in an unfavorable decision by the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities coupled with the popular practice known as debt leverage in the 1920s corporate and investment arena. This book extends Bierman's argument in an earlier book, The Great Myths of 1929 and the Lessons to Be Learned (Greenwood, 1991), in which he discussed and refuted seven myths about 1929 but could not explain the crash. He now believes he has a reasonable explanation. He also examines the actions of Charles E. Mitchell and Sam Insull and their subsequent unjust criminal prosecution after the crash of the 1929 stock market.

Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

Author : William T Ziemba
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9813223863
Total Pages : 309 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (132 download)

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Book Synopsis Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them by : William T Ziemba

Download or read book Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them written by William T Ziemba and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2017-08-30 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authors’ research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.