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Author : Andrew B. Martinez
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (124 download)
Download or read book Smooth Robust Multi-horizon Forecast written by Andrew B. Martinez and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Alexander Chudik
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1802620613
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (26 download)
Download or read book Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran written by Alexander Chudik and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-01-18 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The collection of chapters in Volume 43 Part A of Advances in Econometrics serves as a tribute to one of the most innovative, influential, and productive econometricians of his generation, Professor M. Hashem Pesaran.
Author : Rogier Quaedvlieg
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Multi-Horizon Forecast Comparison written by Rogier Quaedvlieg and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We introduce tests for multi-horizon superior predictive ability. Rather than comparing forecasts of different models at multiple horizons individually, we propose to jointly consider all horizons within a forecast path. We define the concepts of uniform and average superior predictive ability. The former entails superior performance at each individual horizon, while the latter allows inferior performance at some horizons to be compensated by others. We show that the tests lead to more coherent conclusions, and are better able to differentiate models than the single-horizon tests. We provide an extension of the Model Confidence Set to allow for multi-horizon comparison of more than two models. Simulations demonstrate appropriate size and high power. An illustration of the tests on a large set of macroeconomic variables demonstrates the empirical benefits of multi-horizon comparison.
Author : Thomas Goodwin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book A State Space Approach to Evaluate Multi-Horizon Forecasts written by Thomas Goodwin and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a state space modeling framework to evaluate a set of forecasts that target the same variable but are updated along the forecast horizon. The approach decomposes forecast errors into three distinct horizon-specific processes, namely, bias, rational error and implicit error, and attributes forecast revisions to corrections for these forecast errors. We derive the conditions under which forecasts that contain error that is irrelevant to the target can still present the second moment bounds of rational forecasts. By evaluating multi-horizon daily maximum temperature forecasts for Melbourne, Australia, we demonstrate how this modeling framework analyzes the dynamics of the forecast revision structure across horizons. Understanding forecast revisions is critical for weather forecast users to determine the optimal timing for their planning decision.
Download or read book Robust Forecasting with Exponential and Holt-Winters Smoothing written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author : Jennifer L. Castle
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 303021432X
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (32 download)
Download or read book Modelling our Changing World written by Jennifer L. Castle and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-08-30 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth. Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.
Author : Filippo Maria Bianchi
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319703382
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)
Download or read book Recurrent Neural Networks for Short-Term Load Forecasting written by Filippo Maria Bianchi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-09 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The key component in forecasting demand and consumption of resources in a supply network is an accurate prediction of real-valued time series. Indeed, both service interruptions and resource waste can be reduced with the implementation of an effective forecasting system. Significant research has thus been devoted to the design and development of methodologies for short term load forecasting over the past decades. A class of mathematical models, called Recurrent Neural Networks, are nowadays gaining renewed interest among researchers and they are replacing many practical implementations of the forecasting systems, previously based on static methods. Despite the undeniable expressive power of these architectures, their recurrent nature complicates their understanding and poses challenges in the training procedures. Recently, new important families of recurrent architectures have emerged and their applicability in the context of load forecasting has not been investigated completely yet. This work performs a comparative study on the problem of Short-Term Load Forecast, by using different classes of state-of-the-art Recurrent Neural Networks. The authors test the reviewed models first on controlled synthetic tasks and then on different real datasets, covering important practical cases of study. The text also provides a general overview of the most important architectures and defines guidelines for configuring the recurrent networks to predict real-valued time series.
Author : Chris Chatfield
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1420036203
Total Pages : 281 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Time-Series Forecasting written by Chris Chatfield and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2000-10-25 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space
Author : Laurence M. Ball
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455263389
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)
Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-01 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.
Author : Sean Holly
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Money, Inflation and Employment written by Sean Holly and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1994 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Celebrates the contribution of Sir James Ball to economic policy and theory, with a range of original essays covering managing the economy, exchange rate policy, structural adjustments in the UK, a theory of intercept corrections in microeconomic forecasting and other matters.
Author : Jennifer L. Castle
Publisher : Now Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781680837087
Total Pages : 190 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (37 download)
Download or read book Climate Econometrics written by Jennifer L. Castle and published by Now Publishers. This book was released on 2020-08-18 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate Econometrics: An Overview provides a review of the research in this new and growing field. The structure of the monograph is as follows: First, section 2 describes econometric methods for empirical climate modeling that can account for wide-sense non-stationarity, namely both stochastic trends and location shifts, with possibly large outliers, as well as dynamics and non-linearities. Section 3 considers hazards confronting empirical modeling of nonstationary time-series data using an example where a counter-intuitive finding is hard to resolve. The framework has a clear subject-matter theory, so is not mere 'data mining', yet the empirical result flatly contradicts the well-based theory. Section 4 provides a brief excursion into climate science, mainly concerned with the composition of the Earth's atmosphere and the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas. Section 5 considers the consequences, both good and bad, of the Industrial Revolution raising living standards beyond the wildest dreams of those living in the 17th century, but leading to dangerous levels of CO2 emissions from using fossil fuels and consider applications of climate econometrics against that background. Section 6 illustrates the approach by modeling past climate variability over the Ice Ages. Section 7 models UK annual CO2 emissions over 1860-2017 to walk through the stages of modeling empirical time series that manifest all the problems of wide-sense non-stationarity. Section 8 concludes and summarizes a number of other empirical applications.
Author : Todd E. Clark
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (11 download)
Download or read book Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors written by Todd E. Clark and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : John E. Boylan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119135303
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (191 download)
Download or read book Intermittent Demand Forecasting written by John E. Boylan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-06-02 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
Author : David F. Hendry
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780198283164
Total Pages : 918 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (831 download)
Download or read book Dynamic Econometrics written by David F. Hendry and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 918 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main problem in econometric modelling of time series is discovering sustainable and interpretable relationships between observed economic variables. The primary aim of this book is to develop an operational econometric approach which allows constructive modelling. Professor Hendry deals with methodological issues (model discovery, data mining, and progressive research strategies); with major tools for modelling (recursive methods, encompassing, super exogeneity, invariance tests); and with practical problems (collinearity, heteroscedasticity, and measurement errors). He also includes an extensive study of US money demand. The book is self-contained, with the technical background covered in appendices. It is thus suitable for first year graduate students, and includes solved examples and exercises to facilitate its use in teaching. About the Series Advanced Texts in Econometrics is a distinguished and rapidly expanding series in which leading econometricians assess recent developments in such areas as stochastic probability, panel and time series data analysis, modeling, and cointegration. In both hardback and affordable paperback, each volume explains the nature and applicability of a topic in greater depth than possible in introductory textbooks or single journal articles. Each definitive work is formatted to be as accessible and convenient for those who are not familiar with the detailed primary literature.
Author : Georges Kariniotakis
Publisher : Woodhead Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0081005059
Total Pages : 388 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (81 download)
Download or read book Renewable Energy Forecasting written by Georges Kariniotakis and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting Contains chapters on operational applications
Author : Gergely Ganics
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (113 download)
Download or read book From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts written by Gergely Ganics and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Surveys of professional forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for "fixed events". For example, in each quarter, panelists are asked to forecast output growth and inflation for the current calendar year and the next, implying that the forecast horizon changes with each survey round. The fixed-event nature limits the usefulness of survey density predictions for policymakers and market participants, who often wish to characterize uncertainty a fixed number of periods ahead ("fixed-horizon"). Is it possible to obtain fixed-horizon density forecasts using the available fixed-event ones? We propose a density combination approach that weights fixed-event density forecasts according to a uniformity of the probability integral transform criterion, aiming at obtaining a correctly calibrated fixed-horizon density forecast. Using data from the US Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show that our combination method produces competitive density forecasts relative to widely used alternatives based on historical forecast errors or Bayesian VARs. Thus, our proposed fixed-horizon predictive densities are a new and useful tool for researchers and policymakers.
