Shocks Crises And False Alarms

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Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms

Author : Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1647825415
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (478 download)

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Book Synopsis Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms by : Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

Download or read book Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms written by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2024-07-09 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An essential new guide to navigating macroeconomic risk. The shocks and crises of recent years—pandemic, recession, inflation, war—have forced executives and investors to recognize that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively managed. Yet unreliable forecasting, pervasive doomsaying, and whipsawing data severely hamper the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral—or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps, but so are true structural changes that go undetected. How can leaders avoid these macro traps to make better tactical and strategic decisions? In this perspective-shifting book, BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to assess macroeconomic risk. Casting doubt on conventional model-based thinking, they demonstrate a more powerful approach to building sound macroeconomic judgment. Using incisive analysis built upon frameworks, historical context, and structural narratives—what they call "economic eclecticism"—the book empowers readers with the durable skills to assess continuously evolving risks in the real economy, the financial system, and the geopolitical arena. Moreover, the authors' more nuanced approach reveals that the all-too-common narratives of economic collapse and decline are often false alarms themselves, while the fundamental strengths of our current "era of tightness" become visible. With rational optimism rather than gloom, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms speaks to the key financial and macroeconomic controversies that define our times—and provides a compass for navigating the global economy. Rather than relying on blinking dashboards or flashy headlines, leaders can and should judge macroeconomic risks for themselves.

Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513568329
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-03 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries

Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475528515
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries by : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

Download or read book Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.

A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises

Author : Mr.Suman S Basu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484333640
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises by : Mr.Suman S Basu

Download or read book A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises written by Mr.Suman S Basu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-15 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate “histories of vulnerabilities” for countries, regions, and the world. For the global financial crisis, our models report that vulnerabilities in advanced economies were rooted in the bursting of leveraged bubbles, while vulnerabilities in emerging markets stemmed from lengthy booms in credit and asset prices combined with growing weaknesses in the corporate and external sectors.

Arms and Influence

Author : Thomas C. Schelling
Publisher : Yale University Press
ISBN 13 : 0300253486
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Arms and Influence by : Thomas C. Schelling

Download or read book Arms and Influence written by Thomas C. Schelling and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This is a brilliant and hardheaded book. It will frighten those who prefer not to dwell on the unthinkable and infuriate those who have taken refuge in stereotypes and moral attitudinizing.”—Gordon A. Craig, New York Times Book Review Originally published more than fifty years ago, this landmark book explores the ways in which military capabilities—real or imagined—are used, skillfully or clumsily, as bargaining power. Anne-Marie Slaughter’s new introduction to the work shows how Schelling’s framework—conceived of in a time of superpowers and mutually assured destruction—still applies to our multipolar world, where wars are fought as much online as on the ground.

Risk and Contingency Management: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice

Author : Management Association, Information Resources
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1522539336
Total Pages : 482 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (225 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk and Contingency Management: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice by : Management Association, Information Resources

Download or read book Risk and Contingency Management: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice written by Management Association, Information Resources and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2017-12-01 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In business, mistakes and errors will inevitably occur. As such, organizations must be constantly alert and ready to meet challenges head-on. Risk and Contingency Management: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice is a comprehensive reference source for the latest scholarly material on trends and techniques for the prediction and evaluation of financial risks and how to diminish their effect. Highlighting a range of pertinent topics such as project management, risk auditing and reporting, and resource management, this multi-volume book is ideally designed for researchers, academics, professionals, managers, students, and practitioners interested in risk and contingency management.

Predicting Fiscal Crises

Author : Ms.Svetlana Cerovic
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484372557
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Fiscal Crises by : Ms.Svetlana Cerovic

Download or read book Predicting Fiscal Crises written by Ms.Svetlana Cerovic and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-03 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both nonfiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature.

Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries

Author : Yasemin Bal Gunduz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475599773
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries by : Yasemin Bal Gunduz

Download or read book Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries written by Yasemin Bal Gunduz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-09 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.

How to Assess Country Risk

Author : International Monetary
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513574213
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis How to Assess Country Risk by : International Monetary

Download or read book How to Assess Country Risk written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF’s Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund’s broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in ”normal times.” The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results.

The Role of Macroeconomic Shocks in Banking Crises

Author : Jarmo Pesola
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis The Role of Macroeconomic Shocks in Banking Crises by : Jarmo Pesola

Download or read book The Role of Macroeconomic Shocks in Banking Crises written by Jarmo Pesola and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Discipline in the Global Economy?

Author : Jakob Vestergaard
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135854858
Total Pages : 517 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (358 download)

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Book Synopsis Discipline in the Global Economy? by : Jakob Vestergaard

Download or read book Discipline in the Global Economy? written by Jakob Vestergaard and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-01-13 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Discipline in the Global Economy, Jakob Vestergaard investigates the currently prevailing regulation of international finance, launched in response to the financial crises of the 1990’s. At the core of this approach is a set of standards of ‘best practice’, ranging from banking supervision to corporate governance. Vestergaard argues that although these standards are presented as ‘international’, they comprise a norm for the ‘proper’ organization and regulation of economies which is intimately related to the Anglo-American model of capitalism. With this approach to the regulation of international finance, previous deregulation policies were replaced by a comprehensive system for the global disciplining of economies. This is a remarkable, if not paradoxical, occurrence in what is allegedly the heyday of neoliberalism and ‘free market economy’. Moreover, this mode of international financial regulation has proved ineffective, if not counter-productive, in terms of its objective to enhance the stability and resilience of the international financial system. Only by abandoning ‘laissez-fairy tales’ about liberalism may we begin to understand our present predicament– and open a space for critical thinking on modes of international economic governance that are at the same time more conducive to financial stability and more in line with the ethos of liberalism.

Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low-Income Countries

Author : Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475523955
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low-Income Countries by : Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji

Download or read book Natural Disasters and Food Crises in Low-Income Countries written by Mr.Olumuyiwa Adedeji and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-17 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The exposure of low-income countries to natural disasters has a significant impact on food production and food security. This paper provides a framework for assessing a country’s vulnerability to food crisis in the event of natural disasters. The paper finds that macroeconomic and structural indicators that are crucial for ensuring the resilience of low-income countries to adverse external shocks are equally important for minimizing the occurrence of food crisis in the event of natural disasters.

Serial Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings

Author : Mr.Tamon Asonuma
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475524692
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Serial Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings by : Mr.Tamon Asonuma

Download or read book Serial Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings written by Mr.Tamon Asonuma and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-21 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging countries that have defaulted on their debt repayment obligations in the past are more likely to default again in the future than are non-defaulters even with the same external debt-to-GDP ratio. These countries actually have repeated defaults or restructurings in short periods. This paper explains these stylized facts within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework by explicitly modeling renegotiations between a defaulting country and its creditors. The quantitative analysis of the model reveals that the equilibrium probability of default for a given debt-to-GDP level is weakly increasing with the number of past defaults. The model also accords with an additional fact: lower recovery rates (high NPV haircuts) are associated with increases in spreads at renegotiation.

Censorship, Surveillance, and Privacy: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications

Author : Management Association, Information Resources
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1522571140
Total Pages : 2215 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (225 download)

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Book Synopsis Censorship, Surveillance, and Privacy: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications by : Management Association, Information Resources

Download or read book Censorship, Surveillance, and Privacy: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications written by Management Association, Information Resources and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2018-10-05 with total page 2215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The censorship and surveillance of individuals, societies, and countries have been a long-debated ethical and moral issue. In consequence, it is vital to explore this controversial topic from all angles. Censorship, Surveillance, and Privacy: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications is a vital reference source on the social, moral, religious, and political aspects of censorship and surveillance. It also explores the techniques of technologically supported censorship and surveillance. Highlighting a range of topics such as political censorship, propaganda, and information privacy, this multi-volume book is geared towards government officials, leaders, professionals, policymakers, media specialists, academicians, and researchers interested in the various facets of censorship and surveillance.

From Calamity to Stability: Harnessing the Wisdom of Past Financial Crises to Build a Stable and Resilient Global Financial System

Author : Josh Luberisse
Publisher : Fortis Novum Mundum
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 111 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis From Calamity to Stability: Harnessing the Wisdom of Past Financial Crises to Build a Stable and Resilient Global Financial System by : Josh Luberisse

Download or read book From Calamity to Stability: Harnessing the Wisdom of Past Financial Crises to Build a Stable and Resilient Global Financial System written by Josh Luberisse and published by Fortis Novum Mundum. This book was released on 2023-03-30 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 'From Calamity to Stability: Harnessing the Wisdom of Past Financial Crises to Build a Stable and Resilient Global Financial System', author Josh delves deep into the history of financial crises, examining the causes, impacts, and lessons learned from each event. With a keen analytical approach, Josh expertly navigates the complex landscape of financial regulation, supervision, and policy that has evolved in response to these crises. Drawing on a wealth of research and firsthand experience, the book presents a comprehensive overview of the regulatory frameworks that have emerged over time, from the Glass-Steagall Act to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, as well as the development of international standards such as the Basel Accords. By analyzing the interplay between innovation and stability, Josh identifies key areas where further action is necessary to maintain a resilient financial system capable of supporting sustainable economic growth. Through a careful examination of the role of international cooperation, transparency, and trust in fostering financial stability, 'From Calamity to Stability' offers valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities facing policymakers, financial institutions, and society at large. The book not only underscores the importance of learning from past financial crises but also highlights the need for a flexible, forward-looking regulatory framework that can adapt to emerging trends and challenges. 'From Calamity to Stability' is an essential resource for anyone seeking to understand the complex dynamics of the global financial system and the ongoing efforts to ensure its stability and resilience. With its balanced and informed perspective, this book provides a compelling roadmap for navigating the uncertain global economic landscape and building a more secure financial future for all.

South Asia's Nuclear Security

Author : Bhumitra Chakma
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317586883
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (175 download)

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Book Synopsis South Asia's Nuclear Security by : Bhumitra Chakma

Download or read book South Asia's Nuclear Security written by Bhumitra Chakma and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-12-17 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: South Asia is often viewed as a potential nuclear flashpoint and a probable source of nuclear terrorism. But, how valid are such perceptions? This book seeks to address this question and assesses the region’s nuclear security from two principal standpoints. First, it evaluates the robustness of the Indo-Pakistani mutual deterrence by analysing the strength and weaknesses of the competing arguments regarding the issue. It also analyses the causes and consequences of nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan, the nature of deterrence structure in the region and the challenges of confidence building and arms control between the two countries in order to assess the robustness of South Asia’s nuclear deterrence. Second, it assesses the safety and security of the nuclear assets and nuclear infrastructure of India and Pakistan. The author holds that the debate on South Asia’s nuclear security is largely misplaced because the optimists tend to overemphasise the stabilising effects of nuclear weapons and the pessimists are too alarmists. It is argued that while the risks of nuclear weapons are significant, it is unlikely that India and Pakistan will give up their nuclear arsenals in the foreseeable future. Therefore, what needs to happen is that while nuclear elimination should be the long-term goal, in the interim years the two countries need to pursue minimum deterrence policies to reduce the likelihood of deterrence failure and the possibility of obtaining fissile materials by non-state actors.

Financial Sector Assessment

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 9780821364321
Total Pages : 494 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (643 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Sector Assessment by : World Bank

Download or read book Financial Sector Assessment written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005-09-29 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the wake of the financial crises of the late 1990s, there was a surge of interest in the systematic assessment of financial sectors, with a view to identifying vulnerabilities and evaluating the sector's developmental needs. Consequently, there has been an increased demand from financial sector authorities in many countries for information on key issues and sound practices in the assessment of financial systems and the appropriate design of policy responses. In response, Financial Sector Assessmsnet presents a general analytical framework and broad guidance on approaches, methodologies and key techniques for assessing the stability and development needs of financial systems. It synthesizes current global sound practices in financial sector assessment.