Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (327 download)

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Book Synopsis Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates by : Sherman Kent

Download or read book Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates written by Sherman Kent and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A selection of Kent's recently declassified writings on the occasion of the Conference on Estimating Soviet Military Power, 1950-1984, which Harvard University's Charles Warren Center for Studies in American History and the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence are co-sponsoring in Cambridge in December, 1994.

Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates by : Sherman Kent

Download or read book Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates written by Sherman Kent and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)

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Book Synopsis Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates by : Sherman Kent

Download or read book Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates written by Sherman Kent and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates

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Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 1257781898
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (577 download)

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Book Synopsis Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates by : Donald P. Steury, Editor

Download or read book Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates written by Donald P. Steury, Editor and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2011-05-31 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These collected essays by Sherman Kent were edited by Donald P. Steury and published in 1994 by the History Staff of the Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, Washington D.C. Kent was chairman of the Board of National Estimates from 1952 - 1967 and these declassified essays represent the essence of his thinking on estimate preparation as well as important historical background on the methodology used before and during his tenure. The foreword is by J. Kenneth McDonald, then (1994) chief of the CIA History Staff and the text includes some security-related redactions. This book, long out of print, is a foundational text in the study of intelligence analysis. For the general non-fiction reading public, Kent's illustrative anecdotes about De Gaulle, Bedell Smith, Dean Acheson, etc., offer color and interest, as does his "lessons learned" essay on analysis failure in predicting Soviet missile deliveries to Cuba.

Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates by : United States. President

Download or read book Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates written by United States. President and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400879159
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy by : Sherman Kent

Download or read book Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy written by Sherman Kent and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-08 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intelligence work is in some ways like a newspaper or newsmagazine, in some like a business, in some like the research activity of a university; very little of it involves cloaks and daggers. All of it is important to national survival, and should be understood by the citizens of a democracy. In this remarkable book, an able scholar, experienced in foreign intelligence, analyzes all of these varied aspects of what is known as "high-level foreign positive intelligence." Illustrations are drawn from that branch, but the lessons apply to all intelligence, and in fact to all those phases of business, of journalism, and (most importantly) of scholarship, where the problem is to learn what has happened or will happen. Originally published in 1966. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

Global Trends 2040

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Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (949 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq Together with Additional Views

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Publisher : Select Committee on Intelligence
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 534 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)

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Book Synopsis Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq Together with Additional Views by : United States. Congress. Senate. Select Committee on Intelligence

Download or read book Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq Together with Additional Views written by United States. Congress. Senate. Select Committee on Intelligence and published by Select Committee on Intelligence. This book was released on 2004 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence presents its report on prewar intelligence regarding Iraq, which contains numerous documents from various U.S. intelligence agencies regarding possible weapons of mass destruction, and other issues relating to Iraq.

CIA and the Pursuit of Security

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Publisher : Edinburgh University Press
ISBN 13 : 1474428878
Total Pages : 507 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (744 download)

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Book Synopsis CIA and the Pursuit of Security by : Dylan Huw Dylan

Download or read book CIA and the Pursuit of Security written by Dylan Huw Dylan and published by Edinburgh University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-18 with total page 507 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its creation in 1947, the CIA has been at the heart of America's security apparatus. Written by intelligence scholars and experts, The CIA and the Pursuit of Security offers the reader a lively survey of the CIA past and present. The history of the agency is presented through the prism of its declassified documents, with each being supplemented by insightful contextual analysis. The book chronicles the evolution of the CIA, its remarkable successes, clandestine operations, and its ongoing struggle to maintain American security in an age of proliferating threats.

Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

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Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309163420
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow by : National Research Council

Download or read book Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.

National Intelligence Council: Issues and Options for Congress

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Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437928048
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)

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Book Synopsis National Intelligence Council: Issues and Options for Congress by : Richard A. Best

Download or read book National Intelligence Council: Issues and Options for Congress written by Richard A. Best and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Truth to Power

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190940034
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (99 download)

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Book Synopsis Truth to Power by : Robert Hutchings

Download or read book Truth to Power written by Robert Hutchings and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-05-24 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Truth to Power, the first-ever history of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), is told through the reflections of its eight Chairs in the period from the end of the Cold War until 2017. Co-editors Robert Hutchings and Gregory Treverton add a substantial introduction placing the NIC in its historical context going all the way back to the Board of National Estimates in the 1940s, as well as a concluding chapter that highlights key themes and judgments. This historic mission of this remarkable but little-known organization, now forty years old, is strategic intelligence assessment in service of senior American foreign policymakers. Its signature inside products, National Intelligence Estimates, are now accompanied by the NIC's every-four-years Global Trends. Unclassified, Global Trends has become a noted NIC brand, its release awaited by officials, academics and private sector managers around the world. Truth to Power tracks the NIC's role in providing strategic analysis on every major foreign policy issue confronting the United States during this consequential period. Chapters provide insider insights on the Balkan wars of the 1990s, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003, the nuclear weapons programs in Iran and North Korea, upheaval in the Middle East including the rise and fall of the Islamic State, the rise of China, and the Russia's turn toward aggression under Vladimir Putin. The book also assesses the NIC's newly expanded role in direct support to meetings of the National Security Council as well as its longstanding role in producing longer-range strategic intelligence.

Analyzing Intelligence

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Publisher : Georgetown University Press
ISBN 13 : 1589012399
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Analyzing Intelligence by : Roger Z. George

Download or read book Analyzing Intelligence written by Roger Z. George and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2008-04-09 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches. The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or "analytical tradecraft") and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis. Analyzing Intelligence is written for the national security expert who needs to understand the role of intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses. Practicing and future analysts will also find that its attention to the enduring challenges provides useful lessons-learned to guide their own efforts. The innovations section will provoke senior intelligence managers to consider major changes in the way analysis is currently organized and conducted, and the way that analysts are trained and perform.

America's Strategic Blunders

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Publisher : Penn State Press
ISBN 13 : 0271039825
Total Pages : 378 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis America's Strategic Blunders by : Willard C. Matthias

Download or read book America's Strategic Blunders written by Willard C. Matthias and published by Penn State Press. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This survey of more than fifty years of national security policy juxtaposes declassified U. S. national intelligence estimates with recently released Soviet documents disclosing the views of Soviet leaders and their Communist allies on the same events. Matthias shows that U. S. intelligence estimates were usually correct but that our political and military leaders generally ignored them&—with sometimes disastrous results. The book begins with a look back at the role of U. S. intelligence during World War II, from Pearl Harbor through the plot against Hitler and the D-day invasion to the &"unconditional surrender&" of Japan, and reveals how better use of the intelligence available could have saved many lives and shortened the war. The following chapters dealing with the Cold War disclose what information and advice U. S. intelligence analysts passed on to policy makers, and also what sometimes bitter policy debates occurred within the Communist camp, concerning Vietnam, the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban missile crisis, the turmoil in Eastern Europe, the Six-Day and Yom Kippur wars in the Middle East, and the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. In many ways, this is a story of missed opportunities the U. S. government had to conduct a more responsible foreign policy that could have avoided large losses of life and massive expenditures on arms buildups. While not exonerating the CIA for its own mistakes, Matthias casts new light on the contributions that objective intelligence analysis did make during the Cold War and speculates on what might have happened if that analysis and advice had been heeded.

The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199888477
Total Pages : 903 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence by : Loch K. Johnson

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence written by Loch K. Johnson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-03-12 with total page 903 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence is a state-of-the-art work on intelligence and national security. Edited by Loch Johnson, one of the world's leading authorities on the subject, the handbook examines the topic in full, beginning with an examination of the major theories of intelligence. It then shifts its focus to how intelligence agencies operate, how they collect information from around the world, the problems that come with transforming "raw" information into credible analysis, and the difficulties in disseminating intelligence to policymakers. It also considers the balance between secrecy and public accountability, and the ethical dilemmas that covert and counterintelligence operations routinely present to intelligence agencies. Throughout, contributors factor in broader historical and political contexts that are integral to understanding how intelligence agencies function in our information-dominated age.

Fixing the Facts

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Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 0801463149
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Fixing the Facts by : Joshua Rovner

Download or read book Fixing the Facts written by Joshua Rovner and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2011-07-26 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the role of intelligence agencies in strategy and policy? How do policymakers use (or misuse) intelligence estimates? When do intelligence-policy relations work best? How do intelligence-policy failures influence threat assessment, military strategy, and foreign policy? These questions are at the heart of recent national security controversies, including the 9/11 attacks and the war in Iraq. In both cases the relationship between intelligence and policy broke down—with disastrous consequences. In Fixing the Facts, Joshua Rovner explores the complex interaction between intelligence and policy and shines a spotlight on the problem of politicization. Major episodes in the history of American foreign policy have been closely tied to the manipulation of intelligence estimates. Rovner describes how the Johnson administration dealt with the intelligence community during the Vietnam War; how President Nixon and President Ford politicized estimates on the Soviet Union; and how pressure from the George W. Bush administration contributed to flawed intelligence on Iraq. He also compares the U.S. case with the British experience between 1998 and 2003, and demonstrates that high-profile government inquiries in both countries were fundamentally wrong about what happened before the war.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

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Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1839743050
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (397 download)

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Book Synopsis Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by : Richards J Heuer

Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and published by Pickle Partners Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-05 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.