Rare Event Simulation using Monte Carlo Methods

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470745410
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (454 download)

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Book Synopsis Rare Event Simulation using Monte Carlo Methods by : Gerardo Rubino

Download or read book Rare Event Simulation using Monte Carlo Methods written by Gerardo Rubino and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-03-18 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. Graduate students, researchers and practitioners who wish to learn and apply rare event simulation techniques will find this book beneficial.

Introduction to Rare Event Simulation

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475740786
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Rare Event Simulation by : James Bucklew

Download or read book Introduction to Rare Event Simulation written by James Bucklew and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a unified theory of rare event simulation and the variance reduction technique known as importance sampling from the point of view of the probabilistic theory of large deviations. It allows us to view a vast assortment of simulation problems from a unified single perspective.

The Cross-Entropy Method

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475743211
Total Pages : 316 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis The Cross-Entropy Method by : Reuven Y. Rubinstein

Download or read book The Cross-Entropy Method written by Reuven Y. Rubinstein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rubinstein is the pioneer of the well-known score function and cross-entropy methods. Accessible to a broad audience of engineers, computer scientists, mathematicians, statisticians and in general anyone, theorist and practitioner, who is interested in smart simulation, fast optimization, learning algorithms, and image processing.

Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118612353
Total Pages : 177 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)

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Book Synopsis Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization by : Reuven Y. Rubinstein

Download or read book Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization written by Reuven Y. Rubinstein and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-11-13 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive account of the theory and application of Monte Carlo methods Based on years of research in efficient Monte Carlo methods for estimation of rare-event probabilities, counting problems, and combinatorial optimization, Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization is a complete illustration of fast sequential Monte Carlo techniques. The book provides an accessible overview of current work in the field of Monte Carlo methods, specifically sequential Monte Carlo techniques, for solving abstract counting and optimization problems. Written by authorities in the field, the book places emphasis on cross-entropy, minimum cross-entropy, splitting, and stochastic enumeration. Focusing on the concepts and application of Monte Carlo techniques, Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization includes: Detailed algorithms needed to practice solving real-world problems Numerous examples with Monte Carlo method produced solutions within the 1-2% limit of relative error A new generic sequential importance sampling algorithm alongside extensive numerical results An appendix focused on review material to provide additional background information Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization is an excellent resource for engineers, computer scientists, mathematicians, statisticians, and readers interested in efficient simulation techniques. The book is also useful for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses on Monte Carlo methods.

An Introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030478459
Total Pages : 378 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis An Introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo by : Nicolas Chopin

Download or read book An Introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo written by Nicolas Chopin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-10-01 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a general introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters. These methods have become a staple for the sequential analysis of data in such diverse fields as signal processing, epidemiology, machine learning, population ecology, quantitative finance, and robotics. The coverage is comprehensive, ranging from the underlying theory to computational implementation, methodology, and diverse applications in various areas of science. This is achieved by describing SMC algorithms as particular cases of a general framework, which involves concepts such as Feynman-Kac distributions, and tools such as importance sampling and resampling. This general framework is used consistently throughout the book. Extensive coverage is provided on sequential learning (filtering, smoothing) of state-space (hidden Markov) models, as this remains an important application of SMC methods. More recent applications, such as parameter estimation of these models (through e.g. particle Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques) and the simulation of challenging probability distributions (in e.g. Bayesian inference or rare-event problems), are also discussed. The book may be used either as a graduate text on Sequential Monte Carlo methods and state-space modeling, or as a general reference work on the area. Each chapter includes a set of exercises for self-study, a comprehensive bibliography, and a “Python corner,” which discusses the practical implementation of the methods covered. In addition, the book comes with an open source Python library, which implements all the algorithms described in the book, and contains all the programs that were used to perform the numerical experiments.

Stochastic Hybrid Systems

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1420008544
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Hybrid Systems by : Christos G. Cassandras

Download or read book Stochastic Hybrid Systems written by Christos G. Cassandras and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-10-03 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Because they incorporate both time- and event-driven dynamics, stochastic hybrid systems (SHS) have become ubiquitous in a variety of fields, from mathematical finance to biological processes to communication networks to engineering. Comprehensively integrating numerous cutting-edge studies, Stochastic Hybrid Systems presents a captivating treatment of some of the most ambitious types of dynamic systems. Cohesively edited by leading experts in the field, the book introduces the theoretical basics, computational methods, and applications of SHS. It first discusses the underlying principles behind SHS and the main design limitations of SHS. Building on these fundamentals, the authoritative contributors present methods for computer calculations that apply SHS analysis and synthesis techniques in practice. The book concludes with examples of systems encountered in a wide range of application areas, including molecular biology, communication networks, and air traffic management. It also explains how to resolve practical problems associated with these systems. Stochastic Hybrid Systems achieves an ideal balance between a theoretical treatment of SHS and practical considerations. The book skillfully explores the interaction of physical processes with computerized equipment in an uncertain environment, enabling a better understanding of sophisticated as well as everyday devices and processes.

Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems

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Publisher : Woodhead Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0081001118
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (81 download)

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Book Synopsis Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems by : Jerome Morio

Download or read book Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems written by Jerome Morio and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2015-11-16 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rare event probability (10-4 and less) estimation has become a large area of research in the reliability engineering and system safety domains. A significant number of methods have been proposed to reduce the computation burden for the estimation of rare events from advanced sampling approaches to extreme value theory. However, it is often difficult in practice to determine which algorithm is the most adapted to a given problem.Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems: A Practical Approach provides a broad up-to-date view of the current available techniques to estimate rare event probabilities described with a unified notation, a mathematical pseudocode to ease their potential implementation and finally a large spectrum of simulation results on academic and realistic use cases. Provides a broad overview of the practical approach of rare event methods. Includes algorithms that are applied to aerospace benchmark test cases Offers insight into practical tuning issues

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521766559
Total Pages : 399 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (217 download)

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Book Synopsis Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation by : Kenneth Train

Download or read book Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation written by Kenneth Train and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-06 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

Feynman-Kac Formulae

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780387202686
Total Pages : 584 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis Feynman-Kac Formulae by : Pierre Del Moral

Download or read book Feynman-Kac Formulae written by Pierre Del Moral and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-03-30 with total page 584 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text takes readers in a clear and progressive format from simple to recent and advanced topics in pure and applied probability such as contraction and annealed properties of non-linear semi-groups, functional entropy inequalities, empirical process convergence, increasing propagations of chaos, central limit, and Berry Esseen type theorems as well as large deviation principles for strong topologies on path-distribution spaces. Topics also include a body of powerful branching and interacting particle methods.

The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1447145887
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (471 download)

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Book Synopsis The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis by : Enrico Zio

Download or read book The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis written by Enrico Zio and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo simulation is one of the best tools for performing realistic analysis of complex systems as it allows most of the limiting assumptions on system behavior to be relaxed. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis comprehensively illustrates the Monte Carlo simulation method and its application to reliability and system engineering. Readers are given a sound understanding of the fundamentals of Monte Carlo sampling and simulation and its application for realistic system modeling. Whilst many of the topics rely on a high-level understanding of calculus, probability and statistics, simple academic examples will be provided in support to the explanation of the theoretical foundations to facilitate comprehension of the subject matter. Case studies will be introduced to provide the practical value of the most advanced techniques. This detailed approach makes The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis a key reference for senior undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers and practitioners. It provides a powerful tool for all those involved in system analysis for reliability, maintenance and risk evaluations.

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319297546
Total Pages : 366 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 by : Sez Atamturktur

Download or read book Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 written by Sez Atamturktur and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-27 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantifi cation, Volume 3. Proceedings of the 34th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Dynamics of Multiphysical Systems: From Active Materials to Vibroacoustics, 2016, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. Th e collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: • Uncertainty Quantifi cation & Model Validation • Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics • Bayesian & Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods • Practical Applications of MVUQ • Advances in MVUQ & Model Updating • Robustness in Design & Validation • Verifi cation & Validation Methods

Safety and Reliability Modeling and Its Applications

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Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128233249
Total Pages : 433 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (282 download)

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Book Synopsis Safety and Reliability Modeling and Its Applications by : Mangey Ram

Download or read book Safety and Reliability Modeling and Its Applications written by Mangey Ram and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2021-08-15 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Safety and Reliability Modeling and Its Applications combines work by leading researchers in engineering, statistics and mathematics who provide innovative methods and solutions for this fast-moving field. Safety and reliability analysis is one of the most multidimensional topics in engineering today. Its rapid development has created many opportunities and challenges for both industrialists and academics, while also completely changing the global design and systems engineering environment. As more modeling tasks can now be undertaken within a computer environment using simulation and virtual reality technologies, this book helps readers understand the number and variety of research studies focusing on this important topic. The book addresses these important recent developments, presenting new theoretical issues that were not previously presented in the literature, along with solutions to important practical problems and case studies that illustrate how to apply the methodology. - Uses case studies from industry practice to explain innovative solutions to real world safety and reliability problems - Addresses the full interdisciplinary range of topics that influence this complex field - Provides brief introductions to important concepts, including stochastic reliability and Bayesian methods

Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods 2012

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642410952
Total Pages : 680 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (424 download)

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Book Synopsis Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods 2012 by : Josef Dick

Download or read book Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods 2012 written by Josef Dick and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book represents the refereed proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Scientific Computing that was held at the University of New South Wales (Australia) in February 2012. These biennial conferences are major events for Monte Carlo and the premiere event for quasi-Monte Carlo research. The proceedings include articles based on invited lectures as well as carefully selected contributed papers on all theoretical aspects and applications of Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods. The reader will be provided with information on latest developments in these very active areas. The book is an excellent reference for theoreticians and practitioners interested in solving high-dimensional computational problems arising, in particular, in finance, statistics and computer graphics.

Measurement, Modelling and Evaluation of Computing Systems

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030430243
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Measurement, Modelling and Evaluation of Computing Systems by : Holger Hermanns

Download or read book Measurement, Modelling and Evaluation of Computing Systems written by Holger Hermanns and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-03-09 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the proceedings of the 20th International GI/ITG Conference on Measurement, Modelling and Evaluation of Computing Systems, MMB 2020, held in Saarbrücken, Germany, in March 2020. The 16 full papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 32 submissions. They are dealing with scientific aspects of measurement, modelling and evaluation of intelligent systems including computer architectures, communication networks, distributed systems and software, autonomous systems, workflow systems, cyber-physical systems and networks, Internet-of-Things, as well as highly dependable, highly performant and highly secure systems.

A First Course in Order Statistics

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Publisher : SIAM
ISBN 13 : 0898716489
Total Pages : 291 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (987 download)

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Book Synopsis A First Course in Order Statistics by : Barry C. Arnold

Download or read book A First Course in Order Statistics written by Barry C. Arnold and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2008-09-25 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This updated classic text will aid readers in understanding much of the current literature on order statistics: a flourishing field of study that is essential for any practising statistician and a vital part of the training for students in statistics. Written in a simple style that requires no advanced mathematical or statistical background, the book introduces the general theory of order statistics and their applications. The book covers topics such as distribution theory for order statistics from continuous and discrete populations, moment relations, bounds and approximations, order statistics in statistical inference and characterisation results, and basic asymptotic theory. There is also a short introduction to record values and related statistics. The authors have updated the text with suggestions for further reading that may be used for self-study. Written for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in statistics and mathematics, practising statisticians, engineers, climatologists, economists, and biologists.

Machine Learning: Theory and Applications

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Publisher : Newnes
ISBN 13 : 0444538666
Total Pages : 551 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)

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Book Synopsis Machine Learning: Theory and Applications by :

Download or read book Machine Learning: Theory and Applications written by and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-05-16 with total page 551 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical learning and analysis techniques have become extremely important today, given the tremendous growth in the size of heterogeneous data collections and the ability to process it even from physically distant locations. Recent advances made in the field of machine learning provide a strong framework for robust learning from the diverse corpora and continue to impact a variety of research problems across multiple scientific disciplines. The aim of this handbook is to familiarize beginners as well as experts with some of the recent techniques in this field.The Handbook is divided in two sections: Theory and Applications, covering machine learning, data analytics, biometrics, document recognition and security. - Very relevant to current research challenges faced in various fields - Self-contained reference to machine learning - Emphasis on applications-oriented techniques

Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118632168
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)

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Book Synopsis Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method by : Reuven Y. Rubinstein

Download or read book Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method written by Reuven Y. Rubinstein and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-11-07 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This accessible new edition explores the major topics in Monte Carlo simulation that have arisen over the past 30 years and presents a sound foundation for problem solving Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the state-of-the-art theory, methods and applications that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over more than a quarter of a century ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo, variance reduction techniques such as importance (re-)sampling, and the transform likelihood ratio method, the score function method for sensitivity analysis, the stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization, the cross-entropy method for rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization, and application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems. An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, as well as a generous sampling of applied examples. The Third Edition features a new chapter on the highly versatile splitting method, with applications to rare-event estimation, counting, sampling, and optimization. A second new chapter introduces the stochastic enumeration method, which is a new fast sequential Monte Carlo method for tree search. In addition, the Third Edition features new material on: • Random number generation, including multiple-recursive generators and the Mersenne Twister • Simulation of Gaussian processes, Brownian motion, and diffusion processes • Multilevel Monte Carlo method • New enhancements of the cross-entropy (CE) method, including the “improved” CE method, which uses sampling from the zero-variance distribution to find the optimal importance sampling parameters • Over 100 algorithms in modern pseudo code with flow control • Over 25 new exercises Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in stochastic simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method. Reuven Y. Rubinstein, DSc, was Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management at Technion-Israel Institute of Technology. He served as a consultant at numerous large-scale organizations, such as IBM, Motorola, and NEC. The author of over 100 articles and six books, Dr. Rubinstein was also the inventor of the popular score-function method in simulation analysis and generic cross-entropy methods for combinatorial optimization and counting. Dirk P. Kroese, PhD, is a Professor of Mathematics and Statistics in the School of Mathematics and Physics of The University of Queensland, Australia. He has published over 100 articles and four books in a wide range of areas in applied probability and statistics, including Monte Carlo methods, cross-entropy, randomized algorithms, tele-traffic c theory, reliability, computational statistics, applied probability, and stochastic modeling.