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Scenario Planning And Strategy In The Pentagon
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Book Synopsis Scenario Planning and Strategy in the Pentagon by : Michael Fitzsimmons
Download or read book Scenario Planning and Strategy in the Pentagon written by Michael Fitzsimmons and published by . This book was released on 2020-09-17 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scenario planning should be one of the Pentagon's most important tools for developing strategy for an uncertain future. However, the formalized joint scenario planning process to support strategy and force development-Support for Strategic Analysis-has faced many challenges over the past 2 decades, and has ultimately proven less influential than intended on strategic decision-making. Explaining why is the main purpose of this monograph. It argues that scenario analysis has been most effective in supporting capability and program development, while it has fallen short in shaping strategy and force structure. The reasons for this are numerous and are rooted in intrinsic, structural characteristics of decision-making in large organizations. The monograph concludes with several recommendations for rejuvenating scenario planning in the Pentagon.
Book Synopsis Scenario Planning and Strategy in the Pentagon by : Michael Fitzsimmons
Download or read book Scenario Planning and Strategy in the Pentagon written by Michael Fitzsimmons and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2019-01-29 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scenario planning should be one of the Pentagon's most important tools for developing strategy for an uncertain future. However, the formalized joint scenario planning process to support strategy and force development-Support for Strategic Analysis-has faced many challenges over the past 2 decades, and has ultimately proven less influential than intended on strategic decision-making. Explaining why is the main purpose of this monograph. It argues that scenario analysis has been most effective in supporting capability and program development, while it has fallen short in shaping strategy and force structure. The reasons for this are numerous and are rooted in intrinsic, structural characteristics of decision-making in large organizations. The monograph concludes with several recommendations for rejuvenating scenario planning in the Pentagon.
Book Synopsis Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation by : Paul K. Davis
Download or read book Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report extends research on using scenarios for strategic planning, with experiments in what can be called massive scenario generation (MSG), a computationally intensive technique that seeks to combine virtues of human- and model-based exploration of "the possibility space." The authors measure particular approaches to MSG against four metrics: not needing a good initial model; the dimensionality of the possibility space considered; the degree of exploration of that space; and the quality of resulting knowledge. The authors then describe two MSG experiments for contrasting cases, one that began with a reasonable but untested analytical model, and one that began without an analytical model, but with a thoughtful list of the conditions that might characterize and distinguish among circumstances in the situation considered, a list derived from a combination of single-analyst thinking and group brainstorming. The authors experimented with a variety of methods and tools for interpreting and making sense of the "data" arising from MSG, using ordinary linear sensitivity analysis, a generalization using analyst-inspired aggregation fragments, some advanced filtering methods drawing on data-mining and machine-learning methods, and motivated metamodeling. On the basis of this preliminary work, we conclude that MSG has the potential to expand the scope of what are recognized as possible developments, provide an understanding of how those developments might come about, and help identify aspects of the world that should be studied more carefully, tested, or monitored. It should assist planners by enriching their mental library of the patterns used to guide reasoning and action at the time of crisis or decision and should help them identify anomalous situations requiring unusual actions. Finally, it should identify crucial issues worthy of testing or experimentation in games or other venues and, in some cases, suggest better ways to design mission rehearsals. If MSG can be built into training, education, research, and socialization exercises, it should leave participants with a wider and better sense of the possible, while developing skill at problem-solving in situations other than those of the "best estimate." Much development is needed, but prospects are encouraging.
Book Synopsis The Army in the Strategic Planning Process by : Builder, Carl H.
Download or read book The Army in the Strategic Planning Process written by Builder, Carl H. and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The report describes national security strategy, how it is formulated and applied by the military services, and about the role, past and future, of the US Army in these processes.
Book Synopsis Force Planning Scenarios, 1945-2016 by : Eric V. Larson
Download or read book Force Planning Scenarios, 1945-2016 written by Eric V. Larson and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Prepared for the United States Army"--Title page.
Book Synopsis Strategy Shelved by : Steven T Wills
Download or read book Strategy Shelved written by Steven T Wills and published by . This book was released on 2021-06-15 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As U.S. strategy shifts (once again) to focus on great power competition, Strategy Shelved provides a valuable, analytic look back to the Cold War era by examining the rise and eventual fall of the U.S. Navy's naval strategy system from the post-World War II era to 1994. Steven T. Wills draws some important conclusions that have relevance to the ongoing strategic debates of today. His analysis focuses on the 1970s and 1980s as a period when U.S. Navy strategic thought was rebuilt after a period of stagnation during the Vietnam conflict and its high water mark in the form of the 1980s' maritime strategy and its attendant six hundred -ship navy force structure. He traces the collapse of this earlier system by identifying several contributing factors: the provisions of the Goldwater Nichols Act of 1986, the aftermath of the First Gulf War of 1991, the early 1990s revolution in military affairs, and the changes to the Chief of Naval Operations staff in 1992 following the end of the Cold War. All of these conditions served to undermine the existing naval strategy system. The Goldwater Nichols Act subordinated the Navy to joint control with disastrous effects on the long-serving cohort of uniformed naval strategists. The first Gulf War validated Army and Air Force warfare concepts developed in the Cold War but not those of the Navy's maritime strategy. The Navy executed its own revolution in military affairs during the Cold War through systems like AEGIS but did not get credit for those efforts. Finally, the changes in the Navy (OPNAV) staff in 1992 served to empower the budget arm of OPNAV at the expense of its strategists. These measures laid the groundwork for a thirty-year "strategy of means" where service budgets, a desire to preserve existing force structure, and lack of strategic vision hobbled not only the Navy, but also the Joint Force's ability to create meaningful strategy to counter a rising China and a revanchist Russian threat. Wills concludes his analysis with an assessment of the return of naval strategy documents in 2007 and 2015 and speculates on the potential for success of current Navy strategies including the latest tri-service maritime strategy. His research makes extensive use of primary sources, oral histories, and navy documents to tell the story of how the U.S. Navy created both successful strategies and how a dedicated group of naval officers were intimately involved in their creation. It also explains how the Navy's ability to create strategy, and even the process for training strategy writers, was seriously damaged in the post-Cold War era.
Book Synopsis 7 Deadly Scenarios by : Andrew Krepinevich
Download or read book 7 Deadly Scenarios written by Andrew Krepinevich and published by Bantam. This book was released on 2009-01-27 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border. Major American cities are leveled by black-market nukes. China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown. Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons. What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How will we respond? Are we prepared? These are the questions that Andrew F. Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling book. As a military expert and consultant, Krepinevich must think the unthinkable based on the latest intelligence and geopolitical trends—and devise a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality. As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the real ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take—and what we must do to prepare before it’s too late.
Book Synopsis "Shaping" the World Through "engagement" by : Thomas M. Jordan
Download or read book "Shaping" the World Through "engagement" written by Thomas M. Jordan and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Shaping" the World Through "Engagement": Assessing the Department of Defense's Theater Engagement Planning Process by :
Download or read book Shaping" the World Through "Engagement": Assessing the Department of Defense's Theater Engagement Planning Process written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures by : Michael F. Oppenheimer
Download or read book Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures written by Michael F. Oppenheimer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China, Syria, and the Iran nuclear crisis. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.
Book Synopsis Avoiding Trivia by : Daniel W. Drezner
Download or read book Avoiding Trivia written by Daniel W. Drezner and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Critically assesses the past, future, and potential future role and impact of long-term strategic planning in foreign policy. Key figures from past decades of foreign policy and planning provide authoritative insight on the difficulties and importance of thinking and acting in a coherent way for the long term"--Provided by publisher.
Book Synopsis Military Operational Planning and Strategic Moves by : Lucía Martínez Ordóñez
Download or read book Military Operational Planning and Strategic Moves written by Lucía Martínez Ordóñez and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-05-03 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book employs game theory to warfare and in particular to military operations. It aims at scrutinizing the validity of the two ideas that have governed the literature on war and warfighting: One is the Clausewitzian Fog of War, which suggests that he who is able to "see" through the gunsmoke and observe his opponent’s moves before he has to commit to some strategy himself, should be able to gain an advantage over that enemy; the other is the tradition of understanding military conflict as a zero-sum game. Combined, these ideas seem to imply that war always gives rise to a second-mover advantage. This book questions the validity of this presumption at the operational level of military planning. It provides a simple but rigorous game-theoretic framework in order to analyse operational alternatives for a whole range of typical conflicts Western military forces are facing, including the most recent ones such as Anti-Access/Area-Denial and supporting host nations' counterinsurgency campaigns.
Book Synopsis Creating Strategic Vision by : Perry McCoy Smith
Download or read book Creating Strategic Vision written by Perry McCoy Smith and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Revising the Two Mtw Force Shaping Paradigm by : Steven Metz
Download or read book Revising the Two Mtw Force Shaping Paradigm written by Steven Metz and published by . This book was released on 2014-07-23 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: U.S. military strategy is undergoing its most serious examination since the end of the Cold War. Led by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, this process is designed to assess every dimension of the strategy, including its most basic assumptions and concepts. For the first time in over a decade, everything about U.S. military strategy is subject to question. One of the most important elements of U.S. military strategy for the past ten years has been the belief that a force able to fight two nearly simultaneous major theater wars (MTW) of the DESERT STORM type would be capable of dealing with the full gamut of security challenges that the United States is likely to face. Now nearly every expert on U.S. military strategy agrees that this force shaping paradigm needs a relook.
Book Synopsis Revising the Two MTW Force Shaping Paradigm by : Steven Metz
Download or read book Revising the Two MTW Force Shaping Paradigm written by Steven Metz and published by Strategic Studies Institute U. S. Army War College. This book was released on 2001 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most important elements of U.S. military strategy for the past 10 years has been the belief that a force able to fight two nearly simultaneous major theater wars of the DESERT STORM type would be capable of dealing with the full gamut of security challenges that the United States is likely to face. These essays from a wide range of scholars, analysts, government officials, and uniformed thinkers represent their views of the question of a force shaping paradigm for the U.S. military. They vary widely on assumptions, analytical parameters, and recommendations.
Book Synopsis All Hell Breaking Loose by : Michael T. Klare
Download or read book All Hell Breaking Loose written by Michael T. Klare and published by Metropolitan Books. This book was released on 2019-11-12 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All Hell Breaking Loose is an eye-opening examination of climate change from the perspective of the U.S. military. The Pentagon, unsentimental and politically conservative, might not seem likely to be worried about climate change—still linked, for many people, with polar bears and coral reefs. Yet of all the major institutions in American society, none take climate change as seriously as the U.S. military. Both as participants in climate-triggered conflicts abroad, and as first responders to hurricanes and other disasters on American soil, the armed services are already confronting the impacts of global warming. The military now regards climate change as one of the top threats to American national security—and is busy developing strategies to cope with it. Drawing on previously obscure reports and government documents, renowned security expert Michael Klare shows that the U.S. military sees the climate threat as imperiling the country on several fronts at once. Droughts and food shortages are stoking conflicts in ethnically divided nations, with “climate refugees” producing worldwide havoc. Pandemics and other humanitarian disasters will increasingly require extensive military involvement. The melting Arctic is creating new seaways to defend. And rising seas threaten American cities and military bases themselves. While others still debate the causes of global warming, the Pentagon is intensely focused on its effects. Its response makes it clear that where it counts, the immense impact of climate change is not in doubt.
Book Synopsis Learning from the Future by : Liam Fahey
Download or read book Learning from the Future written by Liam Fahey and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1997-11-10 with total page 478 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unter Szenarioplanung versteht man eine spezielle Methode der Vorhersage zukünftiger politischer, ökonomischer und demographischer Entwicklungen, die das Funktionieren eines Unternehmens beeinflussen können. Diese Technik wird hier von renommierten Vorreitern auf diesem Gebiet ausführlich beleuchtet - so lernt der Manager, verschiedene Implikationen plausibler Ereignisse und Einflüsse systematisch zu durchdenken. (11/97)
