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Responses Of The Stock Market To Macroeconomic Announcements Across Economic States
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Book Synopsis Responses of the Stock Market to Macroeconomic Announcements Across Economic States by : Zuliu Hu
Download or read book Responses of the Stock Market to Macroeconomic Announcements Across Economic States written by Zuliu Hu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-05-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the stock market responsive to macroeconomic news? This paper employs the daily returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Index, the S&P 500 index, the Russell 1000 index, and the Russell 2000 index to examine stock market reactions to a broad list of macroeconomic announcements, including money supply, inflation, employment, housing starts, and trade balances, etc. Several announcements concerning real economic activity that have received little attention in previous research are shown to have a significant impact on stock prices. The paper also presents preliminary evidence for the different reaction to macroeconomic news by small cap stocks and large cap stocks.
Book Synopsis Responses of the Stock Market to Macroeconomic Announcements Across Economic States by : Li Li (economist.)
Download or read book Responses of the Stock Market to Macroeconomic Announcements Across Economic States written by Li Li (economist.) and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic News Effects in Commodity Futures and German Stock and Bond Futures Markets by : He Huang
Download or read book Macroeconomic News Effects in Commodity Futures and German Stock and Bond Futures Markets written by He Huang and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2010 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A well-known concept in modern capital market theory is that only systematic risk factors affect security prices. Macroeconomic announcements are among the most important news for financial markets because the state of the economy is a prime candidate for such a source of non-diversifiable risk. This book investigates the effects of US macroeconomic news on three financial markets that have received less attention in the literature so far. The markets of interest are the commodity futures market, the German stock index futures market, and the German bond futures market. I investigate not only price effects, but also liquidity effects as well as the channels of cross-border information flow. I find that commodity markets as well as international stock and bond markets are likewise affected by the release of US macroeconomic news. The strength of the commodity price response depends on the state of the economy and news about the US economy is more important for German stock markets than domestic economic news. For an investor in any of these markets, this book provides valuable information on how to adjust his trading strategies around the release of macroeconomic news. Moreover, my findings contribute to the understanding of cross-border information flow. First, I find that both domestic and foreign economic news induce significant price and liquidity effects. Second, I find that there are two important channels of information transmission for foreign news: the direct response to the news and the indirect response to the foreign response to the news.
Book Synopsis The Stock Market Reaction to Presidential Tweets in the Case of the US-China Trade War by : Max Luca Wiegand
Download or read book The Stock Market Reaction to Presidential Tweets in the Case of the US-China Trade War written by Max Luca Wiegand and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2020-01-09 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2019 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1.3, University of Frankfurt (Main), language: English, abstract: In times of an increasingly digitalized world, behavioral changes in society do not spare high-ranking politicians and decision makers. In some cases, those changes in behavior can have unforeseen yet considerable consequences. By making use of the renowned event study methodology, this paper scrutinizes the impact of acting U.S. president Donald Trump’s Twitter activity on international stock markets. In particular, a select set of ten short messages posted in the context of the present US-China trade dispute is analyzed with regard to the U.S. American S&P 500, the Chinese Hang Seng Index (HSI) and the German DAX. Highly significant market reactions, both positive and negative, are found for the HSI and the examined markets’ aggregate, while Trump’s native market showed the least responsiveness to his tweets. Apart from that, the obtained results suggest a fairly rapid processing of new information and thus adjustment of prices. Ever since Donald Trump’s official inaugural address as the 45th president of the United States of America in January 2017, he has been cherishing a very polarizing and distinct way of leading the world’s largest economy compared to his more recent predecessors. That leadership style is not least characterized by his preferred yet – considering his position – rather uncommon way of communicating to the outside world, namely his extensive use of microblogging service Twitter for presidential announcements and commentaries of any nature. Amongst others, a particularly high activity can be observed in conjunction with the rising political and economic tensions between the United States and China that have been intensifying over Trump’s course of presidency. The dispute between the two economic superpowers – it comprises various topics such as the United States’ massive and long-standing trade deficit and alleged intellectual property theft – ultimately lead to the imposition of a series of mutual tariffs worth hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars. And while Trump regularly keeps his followers updated about his thoughts, claims and the statuses of trade negotiations, stock markets around the globe seem to react heavily to the developments of what is referred to as the US-China trade war. The question arises whether those unscheduled and seemingly impulsive short messages can be a causal explanation for recent stock market movements.
Book Synopsis Discovering and Disentangling Effects of US Macro-Announcements in European Stock Markets by : Tobias R. Rühl
Download or read book Discovering and Disentangling Effects of US Macro-Announcements in European Stock Markets written by Tobias R. Rühl and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Robust Bayesian Analysis of the Stock Market's Response to Macroeconomic News by : Ariel M. Viale
Download or read book A Robust Bayesian Analysis of the Stock Market's Response to Macroeconomic News written by Ariel M. Viale and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the quality of the information that macroeconomic news convey to the stock market as forward looking signals of future business conditions. We introduce a novel robust Bayesian semi-parametric analysis of investors' correspondence functions (i.e., signal-to-price mappings) in the stock market and a feasible ex ante measure of the level of ambiguity in Survey responses anticipating macroeconomic announcements. Using both survey and vector autoregressive (VAR)-based data we show that macroeconomic announcements are relatively ambiguous signals of future economic fundamentals in the stock market, potentially explaining some of previous controversial results in the literature.
Book Synopsis Stock Market Response to Unexpected Macroeconomic News by : Mehdi Sadeghi
Download or read book Stock Market Response to Unexpected Macroeconomic News written by Mehdi Sadeghi and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between unexpected changes in macroeconomic variables and Australian stock returns over the period 1980-1991. The results suggest that stock returns are positively correlated with any surprise news in the current account deficit, the exchange rate and growth rate of real GDP, and negatively correlated with surprise news about the inflation rate and interest rates. Stock returns are also positively correlated with the unexpected unemployment rate and negatively correlated to revisions in the expected unemployment rate. The results furthermore suggest that market portfolios can detect the impact of common economic shocks better than the portfolios of the two main sub-sectors of the market.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany by : Norbert Funke
Download or read book Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany written by Norbert Funke and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze the impact of a broad set of macroeconomic news on stock prices in the United States and Germany. With GARCH specifications we test five hypotheses and find that news on real economic activity has a significant impact on stock prices. The effects vary between different types of stocks and depend on the state of the economy. In a boom period, bad economic news may be good news for stock prices, For German stock prices, international news is at least as important as domestic news. The analysis of bihouriy data suggests that the main effect occurs within a short period of time.
Book Synopsis Discovering and Disentangling the Effects of US Macro-Announcements for European Stocks by : Tobias Rühl
Download or read book Discovering and Disentangling the Effects of US Macro-Announcements for European Stocks written by Tobias Rühl and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study, we analyze the effects of US macroeconomic announcements on European stock returns, return volatility and bid-ask spreads using intraday data. While an index-based analysis provides expected outcomes of differing importance of macro-economic announcements, we provide first evidence on stock-specific reactions. The study further contributes by disentangling stock-specific impacts from overall market reactions. A spread analysis reveals that return volatility affects the spread size positively, and that spreads are systematically higher directly after news releases. This is followed by structurally lower spreads, indicating quickly decreasing asymmetric information in the market after announcements. Additionally, spreads tend to react to announcements even if the returns or the volatility of the underlying stock is not significantly affected. This points at the importance of the analysis of news events beyond return and volatility analyses.
Book Synopsis Persistent Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements in Financial Market Data by : Nicolas Boitout
Download or read book Persistent Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements in Financial Market Data written by Nicolas Boitout and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impact of scheduled releases of macroeconomic variables on the dynamics of financial markets has always attracted a great deal of academic attention in efforts to quantify market responses in terms of volatility and jumps. We investigate whether the occurrence of market reaction due to macroeconomic announcements has an impact on the probability of a reaction caused by the next release of the same macroeconomic value. We measure this impact by means of both post-event volatility changes and a proposed methodology for jump matching. Our findings show that previous market impact significantly changes the probability of an impact detected for the current release.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic News Announcements and the Role of Expectations by : Suk-Joong Kim
Download or read book Macroeconomic News Announcements and the Role of Expectations written by Suk-Joong Kim and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the impact of scheduled government announcements relating to six different macroeconomic variables on the risk and return of three major US financial markets. Our results suggest that these markets do not respond in any meaningful way, to the act of releasing information by the government. Rather, it is the news content of these announcements which cause the market to react. For the three markets tested, unexpected balance of trade news was found to have the greatest impact on the mean return in the foreign exchange market. In the bond market, news related to the internal economy was found to be important. For the US stock market, consumer and producer price information was found to be important. Finally, financial market volatility was found to have increased in response to some classes of announcement and fallen for others. In part, this result can be explained by differential policy feedback effects.
Book Synopsis The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle by : Christoph E. Boehm
Download or read book The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle written by Christoph E. Boehm and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all jump instantaneously upon news releases. The responses of stock indexes co-move across countries and are large--often comparable in size to the response of the S&P 500. Further, US macroeconomic news explains on average 23 percent of the quarterly variation in foreign stock markets. The joint behavior of stock prices, bond yields, and risk premia suggests that systematic US monetary policy reactions to news do not drive the estimated effects. Instead, the evidence points to a direct effect on investors' risk-taking capacity. Our findings show that a byproduct of the United States' central position in the global financial system is that news about its business cycle has large effects on global financial conditions.
Book Synopsis Explaining the Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News Over the Business Cycle by : Joost Driessen
Download or read book Explaining the Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News Over the Business Cycle written by Joost Driessen and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the impact of unemployment news on stock markets throughout the business cycle. We show dependence of the reaction to the economic environment by studying the reaction in multiple economic environments that are defined based on both the level and momentum of economic activity. Applying the Campbell-Shiller decomposition combined with a VAR model, we attribute the stock market reactions on a daily basis to its main drivers: changes in the risk free rate, risk premium and dividends. The decomposition of daily returns shows that all three drivers are important determinants of announcement returns.
Book Synopsis Regional Aspects of Monetary Policy in Europe by : Jürgen von Hagen
Download or read book Regional Aspects of Monetary Policy in Europe written by Jürgen von Hagen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary union has dawned in Europe. Now that the common currency is a reality, questions concerning the practical conduct of monetary policy in the European Monetary Union (EMU) are moving to the forefront of the policy debate. Among these, one of the most critical is how the new monetary union will cope with the large heterogeneity of its member economies. Given the large differences in economic and financial structures among the EMU member states, monetary policy is likely to affect different member economies in different ways. Regional Aspects of Monetary Policy in Europe collects the proceedings of an international conference held at the Center for European Integration Studies of the University of Bonn, dedicated to this issue. The contributions to this conference fall into two parts. The first part consists of empirical and theoretical studies of the regional effects of monetary policy in heterogeneous monetary unions. The second part consists of papers analyzing the political economy of monetary policy in a monetary union of heterogeneous regions or member states. The papers all support the conclusion that regional differences in the responses to a common monetary policy will make European monetary policy especially difficult in the years to come. Such differences arise from a variety of sources, and they cannot be expected to be mere teething troubles that will disappear after a while. Even if they were ignored in the run-up to the EMU, Europe's central bankers and economic policy makers will have to learn how to cope with such differences in the future.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis Liquidity, Markets and Trading in Action by : Deniz Ozenbas
Download or read book Liquidity, Markets and Trading in Action written by Deniz Ozenbas and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book addresses four standard business school subjects: microeconomics, macroeconomics, finance and information systems as they relate to trading, liquidity, and market structure. It provides a detailed examination of the impact of trading costs and other impediments of trading that the authors call rictions It also presents an interactive simulation model of equity market trading, TraderEx, that enables students to implement trading decisions in different market scenarios and structures. Addressing these topics shines a bright light on how a real-world financial market operates, and the simulation provides students with an experiential learning opportunity that is informative and fun. Each of the chapters is designed so that it can be used as a stand-alone module in an existing economics, finance, or information science course. Instructor resources such as discussion questions, Powerpoint slides and TraderEx exercises are available online.
Book Synopsis The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency by : Mr.Dennis P. J. Botman
Download or read book The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency written by Mr.Dennis P. J. Botman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.
