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Reducing Uncertainty In Current Analysis And Projections
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Book Synopsis Reducing Uncertainty by : Thomas Fingar
Download or read book Reducing Uncertainty written by Thomas Fingar and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-07-20 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes what Intelligence Community (IC) analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. It is written by a 25-year intelligence professional.
Book Synopsis Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by : National Research Council
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Book Synopsis International journal of forecasting by : International Institute of Forecasters
Download or read book International journal of forecasting written by International Institute of Forecasters and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis by : National Research Council
Download or read book Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-09-10 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.
Book Synopsis Federal Forecasters Conference, 2000 by : Debra E. Gerald
Download or read book Federal Forecasters Conference, 2000 written by Debra E. Gerald and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers by : National Research Council
Download or read book Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-07-31 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.
Book Synopsis The Out-of-sample Forecasting Performance of Exchange Rate Models when Coefficients are Allowed to Change by : Garry J. Schinasi
Download or read book The Out-of-sample Forecasting Performance of Exchange Rate Models when Coefficients are Allowed to Change written by Garry J. Schinasi and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Minimum Variance Pooling of Forecasts at Different Levels of Aggregation by : Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
Download or read book Minimum Variance Pooling of Forecasts at Different Levels of Aggregation written by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Computational Intelligent Data Analysis for Sustainable Development by : Ting Yu
Download or read book Computational Intelligent Data Analysis for Sustainable Development written by Ting Yu and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Going beyond performing simple analyses, researchers involved in the highly dynamic field of computational intelligent data analysis design algorithms that solve increasingly complex data problems in changing environments, including economic, environmental, and social data. Computational Intelligent Data Analysis for Sustainable Development present
Book Synopsis Scaling and Uncertainty Analysis in Ecology by : Jianguo Wu
Download or read book Scaling and Uncertainty Analysis in Ecology written by Jianguo Wu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-07-02 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book of its kind – explicitly considering uncertainty and error analysis as an integral part of scaling. The book draws together a series of important case studies to provide a comprehensive review and synthesis of the most recent concepts, theories and methods in scaling and uncertainty analysis. It includes case studies illustrating how scaling and uncertainty analysis are being conducted in ecology and environmental science.
Book Synopsis Special Studies Paper by : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Download or read book Special Studies Paper written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Use of High-frequency Data in Model-based Forecasting at the Federal Reserve Board by : Carol Corrado
Download or read book The Use of High-frequency Data in Model-based Forecasting at the Federal Reserve Board written by Carol Corrado and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Should Fixed Coefficients be Reestimated Every Period [for Extrapolation?] by : P. A. V. B. Swamy
Download or read book Should Fixed Coefficients be Reestimated Every Period [for Extrapolation?] written by P. A. V. B. Swamy and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309259789 Total Pages :252 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (92 download)
Book Synopsis A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling by : Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling
Download or read book A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling written by Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-07 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.
Book Synopsis Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate by : P. Kabat
Download or read book Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate written by P. Kabat and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004 with total page 598 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a state-of-the-art scientific overview of the influence of terrestrial vegetation and soils within the Earth system. It deals especially with interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere via the hydrological cycle and their interlinkage with anthropogenic activities. Measurements gathered in integrated field experiments in the Sahel, the Amazon, North America and South-east Asia confirm the importance of these interactions, but a substantial data consolidation effort still needs to be undertaken. Observations are complemented by modelling studies, including regional models that simulate flows and transport in river catchments, coupled land-cover and regional climate systems, and Earth-system and global circulation models. Water, nutrient and sediment fluxes in river basins are also discussed and are shown to be highly impacted and regulated by humans through land use, pollution and river engineering. Finally, the book discusses environmental vulnerability and methodologies for assessing the risks associated with regional and global climatic and environmental variability and change.The editors emphasise that the results reported in this book are based on the research work of many individual scientists and teams around the world associated with the objectives of the IGBP-BAHC and WCRP-GEWEX international research programmes.
Book Synopsis Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response by : Chongfu Huang
Download or read book Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response written by Chongfu Huang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-07-25 with total page 968 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this present internet age, risk analysis and crisis response based on information will make up a digital world full of possibilities and improvements to people’s daily life and capabilities. These services will be supported by more intelligent systems and more effective decisionmaking. This book contains all the papers presented at the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, August 27-29, 2013, Istanbul, Turkey. The theme was intelligent systems and decision making for risk analysis and crisis response. The risk issues in the papers cluster around the following topics: natural disasters, finance risks, food and feed safety, catastrophic accidents, critical infrastructure, global climate change, project management, supply chains, public health, threats to social safety, energy and environment. This volume will be of interest to all professionals and academics in the field of risk analysis, crisis response, intelligent systems and decision-making, as well as related fields of enquiry.
Book Synopsis Ecological Forecasting by : Michael C. Dietze
Download or read book Ecological Forecasting written by Michael C. Dietze and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative and accessible introduction to the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science Ecologists are being asked to respond to unprecedented environmental challenges. How can they provide the best available scientific information about what will happen in the future? Ecological Forecasting is the first book to bring together the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science. Ecological Forecasting presents a new way of doing ecology. A closer connection between data and models can help us to project our current understanding of ecological processes into new places and times. This accessible and comprehensive book covers a wealth of topics, including Bayesian calibration and the complexities of real-world data; uncertainty quantification, partitioning, propagation, and analysis; feedbacks from models to measurements; state-space models and data fusion; iterative forecasting and the forecast cycle; and decision support. Features case studies that highlight the advances and opportunities in forecasting across a range of ecological subdisciplines, such as epidemiology, fisheries, endangered species, biodiversity, and the carbon cycle Presents a probabilistic approach to prediction and iteratively updating forecasts based on new data Describes statistical and informatics tools for bringing models and data together, with emphasis on: Quantifying and partitioning uncertainties Dealing with the complexities of real-world data Feedbacks to identifying data needs, improving models, and decision support Numerous hands-on activities in R available online
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