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Reason And Prediction
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Book Synopsis Reason and Prediction by : Simon Blackburn
Download or read book Reason and Prediction written by Simon Blackburn and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1973-02-08 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An original study of the philosophical problems associated with inductive reasoning. Like most of the main questions in epistemology, the classical problem of induction arises from doubts about a mode of inference used to justify some of our most familiar and pervasive beliefs. The experience of each individual is limited and fragmentary, yet the scope of our beliefs is much wider; and it is the relation between belief and experience, in particular the belief that the future will in some respects resemble the past and the unobserved the observed, which forms the subject of this book. Dr Blackburn's first aim is to state the problem of induction properly, to show that there does exist a genuine problem immune to the solutions in vogue at present, yet no tin principle insoluble. He gives an extended and original account of the concept of a reason and goes on to discuss prediction. In the end Dr Blackburn produces a rationale for belief in certain short-term predictions based on his reinterpretation of the classical principle of indifference. He claims that a justification for induction can be found along the lines he has suggested and must indeed be found there if anywhere.
Book Synopsis Causation, Prediction, and Search by : Peter Spirtes
Download or read book Causation, Prediction, and Search written by Peter Spirtes and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 551 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is intended for anyone, regardless of discipline, who is interested in the use of statistical methods to help obtain scientific explanations or to predict the outcomes of actions, experiments or policies. Much of G. Udny Yule's work illustrates a vision of statistics whose goal is to investigate when and how causal influences may be reliably inferred, and their comparative strengths estimated, from statistical samples. Yule's enterprise has been largely replaced by Ronald Fisher's conception, in which there is a fundamental cleavage between experimental and non experimental inquiry, and statistics is largely unable to aid in causal inference without randomized experimental trials. Every now and then members of the statistical community express misgivings about this turn of events, and, in our view, rightly so. Our work represents a return to something like Yule's conception of the enterprise of theoretical statistics and its potential practical benefits. If intellectual history in the 20th century had gone otherwise, there might have been a discipline to which our work belongs. As it happens, there is not. We develop material that belongs to statistics, to computer science, and to philosophy; the combination may not be entirely satisfactory for specialists in any of these subjects. We hope it is nonetheless satisfactory for its purpose.
Book Synopsis Prediction, Learning, and Games by : Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi
Download or read book Prediction, Learning, and Games written by Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-03-13 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.
Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock
Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Book Synopsis Predictive Analytics by : Eric Siegel
Download or read book Predictive Analytics written by Eric Siegel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-12 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a
Book Synopsis The Signal and the Noise by : Nate Silver
Download or read book The Signal and the Noise written by Nate Silver and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Download or read book Surfing Uncertainty written by Andy Clark and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exciting new theories in neuroscience, psychology, and artificial intelligence are revealing minds like ours as predictive minds, forever trying to guess the incoming streams of sensory stimulation before they arrive. In this up-to-the-minute treatment, philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark explores new ways of thinking about perception, action, and the embodied mind.
Book Synopsis Time Predictions by : Torleif Halkjelsvik
Download or read book Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Book Synopsis The Journal of Philosophy, Psychology, and Scientific Methods by : Frederick James Eugene Woodbridge
Download or read book The Journal of Philosophy, Psychology, and Scientific Methods written by Frederick James Eugene Woodbridge and published by . This book was released on 1919 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Routledge Philosophy GuideBook to Anscombe's Intention by : Rachael Wiseman
Download or read book Routledge Philosophy GuideBook to Anscombe's Intention written by Rachael Wiseman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-31 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: G. E. M. Anscombe’s Intention is a classic of twentieth-century philosophy. The work has been enormously influential despite being a dense and largely misunderstood text. It is a standard reference point for anyone engaging with philosophy of action and philosophy of psychology. In this Routledge Philosophy GuideBook, Rachael Wiseman: situates Intention in relation to Anscombe’s moral philosophy and philosophy of mind considers the influence of Aquinas, Aristotle, Frege, and Wittgenstein on the method and content of Intention adopts a structure for assessing the text that shows how Anscombe unifies the three aspects of the concept of intention considers the influence and implications of the piece whilst distinguishing it from subsequent work in the philosophy of action Ideal for anyone wanting to understand and gain a perspective on Elizabeth Anscombe’s seminal work, this guide is an essential introduction, useful in the study of the philosophy of action, ethics, philosophy of psychology and related areas.
Book Synopsis Time-Series Prediction and Applications by : Amit Konar
Download or read book Time-Series Prediction and Applications written by Amit Konar and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-25 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents machine learning and type-2 fuzzy sets for the prediction of time-series with a particular focus on business forecasting applications. It also proposes new uncertainty management techniques in an economic time-series using type-2 fuzzy sets for prediction of the time-series at a given time point from its preceding value in fluctuating business environments. It employs machine learning to determine repetitively occurring similar structural patterns in the time-series and uses stochastic automaton to predict the most probabilistic structure at a given partition of the time-series. Such predictions help in determining probabilistic moves in a stock index time-series Primarily written for graduate students and researchers in computer science, the book is equally useful for researchers/professionals in business intelligence and stock index prediction. A background of undergraduate level mathematics is presumed, although not mandatory, for most of the sections. Exercises with tips are provided at the end of each chapter to the readers’ ability and understanding of the topics covered.
Book Synopsis Prediction Markets by : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-06-16 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.
Book Synopsis Power and Prediction by : Ajay Agrawal
Download or read book Power and Prediction written by Ajay Agrawal and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2022-11-15 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disruption resulting from the proliferation of AI is coming. The authors of the bestselling Prediction Machines can help you prepare. Artificial intelligence (AI) has impacted many industries around the world—banking and finance, pharmaceuticals, automotive, medical technology, manufacturing, and retail. But it has only just begun its odyssey toward cheaper, better, and faster predictions that drive strategic business decisions. When prediction is taken to the max, industries transform, and with such transformation comes disruption. What is at the root of this? In their bestselling first book, Prediction Machines, eminent economists Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb explained the simple yet game-changing economics of AI. Now, in Power and Prediction, they go deeper, examining the most basic unit of analysis: the decision. The authors explain that the two key decision-making ingredients are prediction and judgment, and we perform both together in our minds, often without realizing it. The rise of AI is shifting prediction from humans to machines, relieving people from this cognitive load while increasing the speed and accuracy of decisions. This sets the stage for a flourishing of new decisions and has profound implications for system-level innovation. Redesigning systems of interdependent decisions takes time—many industries are in the quiet before the storm—but when these new systems emerge, they can be disruptive on a global scale. Decision-making confers power. In industry, power confers profits; in society, power confers control. This process will have winners and losers, and the authors show how businesses can leverage opportunities, as well as protect their positions. Filled with illuminating insights, rich examples, and practical advice, Power and Prediction is the must-read guide for any business leader or policymaker on how to make the coming AI disruptions work for you rather than against you.
Download or read book The Journal of Philosophy written by and published by . This book was released on 1919 with total page 752 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covers topics in philosophy, psychology, and scientific methods. Vols. 31- include "A Bibliography of philosophy," 1933-
Book Synopsis Prediction of Elimination from Basic Pilot Training for Reasons Other Than Flying Deficiency by : Ernest Cook Tupes
Download or read book Prediction of Elimination from Basic Pilot Training for Reasons Other Than Flying Deficiency written by Ernest Cook Tupes and published by . This book was released on 1951 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Decision and Prediction Analysis Powered With Operations Research by : Bubevski, Vojo
Download or read book Decision and Prediction Analysis Powered With Operations Research written by Bubevski, Vojo and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2024-07-16 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Organizations today face complex decisions and uncertainties that can have a profound impact on their financial stability and strategic direction. Traditional decision-making methods often fall short when it comes to addressing multifaceted issues like financing, product manufacturing, and facility location. These challenges demand a robust framework that quantifies factors, assesses risks, and provides optimal solutions. Without advanced tools and techniques, businesses are at risk of making uninformed decisions that could lead to significant financial losses and missed opportunities. The urgency to equip yourself with these tools is clear. Decision and Prediction Analysis Powered With Operations Research offers a comprehensive solution to these challenges. This book integrates operations research techniques to reframe and solve complex business problems. It provides a detailed exploration of decision analysis tools, such as influence diagrams and decision trees, which help visualize and assess various decision scenarios. By applying these tools, organizations can better understand uncertainties, evaluate risks, and make decisions that maximize expected utility and achieve strategic objectives.
Book Synopsis Awareness shaping or shaped by prediction and postdiction by : Yuki Yamada
Download or read book Awareness shaping or shaped by prediction and postdiction written by Yuki Yamada and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2015-06-08 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We intuitively believe that we are aware of the external world as it is. Unfortunately, this is not entirely true. In fact, the capacity of our sensory system is too small to veridically perceive the world. To overcome this problem, the sensory system has to spatiotemporally integrate neural signals in order to interpret the external world. However, the spatiotemporal integration involves severe neural latencies. How does the sensory system keep up with the ever-changing external world? As later discussed, ‘prediction’ and ‘postdiction’ are essential keywords here. For example, the sensory system uses temporally preceding events to predict subsequent events (e.g., Nijhawan, 1994; Kerzel, 2003; Hubbard, 2005) even when the preceding event is subliminally presented (Schmidt, 2000). Moreover, internal prediction modulates the perception of action outcomes (Bays et al., 2005; Cardoso-Leite et al., 2010) and sense of agency (Wenke et al., 2010). Prediction is also an indispensable factor for movement planning and control (Kawato, 1999). On the other hand, the sensory system also makes use of subsequent events to postdictively interpret a preceding event (e.g. Eagleman & Sejnowski, 2000; Enns, 2002; Khuu et al., 2010; Kawabe, 2011, 2012; Miyazaki et al., 2010; Ono & Kitazawa, 2011) and it's much the same even for infancy (Newman et al., 2008). Moreover, it has also been proposed that sense of agency stems not only from predictive processing but also from postdictive inference (Ebert & Wegner, 2011). The existence of postdictive processing is also supported by several neuroscience studies (Kamitani & Shimojo, 1999; Lau et al., 2007). How prediction and postdiction shape awareness of the external world is an intriguing question. Prediction is involved with the encoding of incoming signals, whereas postdiction is related to a re-interpretation of already encoded signals. Given this perspective, prediction and postdiction may exist along a processing stream for a single external event. However, it is unclear whether, and if so how, prediction and postdiction interact with each other to shape awareness of the external world. Awareness of the external world may also shape prediction and/or postdiction. It is plausible that awareness of the external world drives the prediction and postdiction of future and past appearances of the world. However, the literature provides little information about the role of awareness of the external world in prediction and postdiction. This background propelled us to propose this research topic with the aim of offering a space for systematic discussion concerning the relationship between awareness, prediction and postdiction among researchers in broad research areas, such as psychology, psychophysics, neuroscience, cognitive science, philosophy, and so forth. We encouraged papers that address one or more of the following questions: 1) How does prediction shape awareness of the external world? 2) How does postdiction shape awareness of the external world? 3) How do prediction and postdiction interact with each other in shaping awareness of the external world? 4) How does awareness of the external world shape prediction/postdiction?
