Real Life Decision Making

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Simply Rational

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Evolution and Cognition
ISBN 13 : 019939007X
Total Pages : 329 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (993 download)

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Book Synopsis Simply Rational by : Gerd Gigerenzer

Download or read book Simply Rational written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Evolution and Cognition. This book was released on 2015 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a heuristic revolution that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.

Thinking in Bets

Author : Annie Duke
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0735216371
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (352 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking in Bets by : Annie Duke

Download or read book Thinking in Bets written by Annie Duke and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2019-05-07 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Making Decisions That Matter

Author : Kathleen M. Galotti
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1135664889
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (356 download)

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Book Synopsis Making Decisions That Matter by : Kathleen M. Galotti

Download or read book Making Decisions That Matter written by Kathleen M. Galotti and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2005-07-11 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goal of this book is to describe ongoing research that examines real people making real decsions, and compares it with theoretical predications to provide readers with "food for thought" when it comes to their own decision making & to point out quest

The Great Mental Models, Volume 1

Author : Shane Parrish
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0593719972
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (937 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 by : Shane Parrish

Download or read book The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

Handbook of Risk Theory

Author : Rafaela Hillerbrand
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400714335
Total Pages : 1209 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Risk Theory by : Rafaela Hillerbrand

Download or read book Handbook of Risk Theory written by Rafaela Hillerbrand and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 1209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists and legal scholars. But the topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple of decades questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars into risk theory. This handbook provides for an overview into key topics in a major new field of research. It addresses a wide range of topics, ranging from decision theory, risk perception to ethics and social implications of risk, and it also addresses specific case studies. It aims to promote communication and information among all those who are interested in theoetical issues concerning risk and uncertainty. This handbook brings together internationally leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines who work on risk theory. The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues that are studied by risk scholars. We hope that the Handbook of Risk Theory will be a helpful starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current perspectives.

Adolescent Decision Making

Author : National Research Council and Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309064791
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Adolescent Decision Making by : National Research Council and Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Adolescent Decision Making written by National Research Council and Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-06-14 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest in the role that decision making plays in adolescents' involvement in high-risk behaviors led the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Planning and Evaluation of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to request the Board on Children, Youth, and Families to convene a workshop on adolescent decision making. The Board on Children, Youth, and Families is a joint activity of the National Research Council (NRC) and the Institute of Medicine. A workshop was held on January 6-7, 1998, to examine what is known about adolescents' decision-making skills and the implications of that knowledge for programs to further their healthy development.

The Little Black Book of Decision Making

Author : Michael Nicholas
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0857087029
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (57 download)

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Book Synopsis The Little Black Book of Decision Making by : Michael Nicholas

Download or read book The Little Black Book of Decision Making written by Michael Nicholas and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-08-28 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The secret to making the right call in an increasingly complex world The decisions we make every day – frequently automatic and incredibly fast – impact every area of our lives. The Little Black Book of Decision Making delves into the cognition behind decision making, guiding you through the different ways your mind approaches various scenarios. You'll learn to notice that decision making is a matter of balance between your rational side and your intuition – the trick is in honing your intuition to steer you down the right path. Pure reasoning cannot provide all of the answers, and relying solely on intuition could prove catastrophic in business. There must be a balance between the two, and the proportions may change with each situation. This book helps you quickly pinpoint the right mix of logic and 'gut feeling,' and use it to find the best possible solution. Balance logic and intuition in your decision making approach Avoid traps set by the mind's inherent bias Understand the cognitive process of decision making Sharpen your professional judgement in any situation Decision making is the primary difference between organisations that lead and those that struggle. The Little Black Book of Decision Making helps you uncover errors in thinking before they become errors in judgement.

Decision Making by the Book

Author : Haddon Robinson
Publisher : Our Daily Bread Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1572934905
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (729 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making by the Book by : Haddon Robinson

Download or read book Decision Making by the Book written by Haddon Robinson and published by Our Daily Bread Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It’s said that decisions are made in the details. And yet, we make hundreds, even thousands of decisions daily. So how do Christians process all those details and come up with answers that please God? In Decision-Making by the Book, author, lecturer, and radio personality, Haddon W. Robinson, takes his usual clear-eyed, not-a-word-wasted approach, to help you make decisions according to biblical principles—every time.

Real-Life Decision-Making

Author : Mats Danielson
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9781032524399
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (243 download)

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Book Synopsis Real-Life Decision-Making by : Mats Danielson

Download or read book Real-Life Decision-Making written by Mats Danielson and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Have you ever experienced a decision situation that was hard to come to grips with? Did you ever feel a need to improve your decision-making skills? Is this something where you feel that you have not learned enough practical and useful methods? In that case, you are not alone! Even though decision-making is both considered and actually also is a very important skill in modern work-life as well as in private life, these skills are not to any reasonable extent taught in schools at any level. No wonder many people do indeed feel the need to improve but have a hard time finding out how. This book is an attempt to remedy this shortcoming of our educational systems and possibly also of our common, partly intuition-based, decision culture. Intuition is not at all bad, quite the contrary, but it has to co-exist with rationality. We will show you how. Methods for decision-making should be of prime concern to any individual or organisation, even if the decision processes are not always explicitly or even consciously formulated. All kinds of organisations, as well as individuals, must continuously make decisions of the most varied nature in order to prosper and attain their objectives. A large part of the time spent in any organisation, not least at management levels, is spent gathering, processing, and compiling information for the purpose of making decisions supported by that information. The same interest has hitherto not been shown for individual decision-making, even though large gains would also be obtained at a personal level if important personal decisions were better deliberated. This book aims at changing that and thus attends to both categories of decision-makers. This book will take you through a journey starting with some history of decision-making and analysis and then go through easy-to-learn ways of structuring decision information and methods for analysing the decision situations, beginning with simple decision situations and then moving on to progressively harder ones, but never losing sight of the overarching goal that the reader should be able to follow the progression and being able to carry out similar decision analyses in real-life situations. The Open Access version of this book, available at http: //www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons [Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND)] 4.0 license. Funded by Stockholm University DSV

Sources of Power

Author : Gary A. Klein
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262260867
Total Pages : 372 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (622 download)

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Book Synopsis Sources of Power by : Gary A. Klein

Download or read book Sources of Power written by Gary A. Klein and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999-02-18 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anyone who watches the television news has seen images of firefighters rescuing people from burning buildings and paramedics treating bombing victims. How do these individuals make the split-second decisions that save lives? Most studies of decision making, based on artificial tasks assigned in laboratory settings, view people as biased and unskilled. Gary Klein is one of the developers of the naturalistic decision making approach, which views people as inherently skilled and experienced. It documents human strengths and capabilities that so far have been downplayed or ignored. Since 1985, Klein has conducted fieldwork to find out how people tackle challenges in difficult, nonroutine situations. Sources of Power is based on observations of humans acting under such real-life constraints as time pressure, high stakes, personal responsibility, and shifting conditions. The professionals studied include firefighters, critical care nurses, pilots, nuclear power plant operators, battle planners, and chess masters. Each chapter builds on key incidents and examples to make the description of the methodology and phenomena more vivid. In addition to providing information that can be used by professionals in management, psychology, engineering, and other fields, the book presents an overview of the research approach of naturalistic decision making and expands our knowledge of the strengths people bring to difficult tasks.

Yes or No

Author : Jeff Shinabarger
Publisher : David C Cook
ISBN 13 : 1434708551
Total Pages : 258 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (347 download)

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Book Synopsis Yes or No by : Jeff Shinabarger

Download or read book Yes or No written by Jeff Shinabarger and published by David C Cook. This book was released on 2014-09-01 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As you face daily choices that require yes or no decisions, there are times when you feel paralyzed—either from fear of making the wrong choice or because of too many seemingly equal options. Social entrepeneur Jeff Shinabarger helps you break through these moments of tension and transition with proven ways to move toward good choices. Discover opportunities to become a decision maker as you gain strength in saying no, develop your personal philosophy of choice, and start using a practical process for making good choices even in difficult situations.

Today Matters

Author : John C. Maxwell
Publisher : Center Street
ISBN 13 : 1599952068
Total Pages : 237 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (999 download)

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Book Synopsis Today Matters by : John C. Maxwell

Download or read book Today Matters written by John C. Maxwell and published by Center Street. This book was released on 2008-11-16 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most of us look at our days in the wrong way: We exaggerate yesterday. We overestimate tomorrow. We underestimate today. The truth is that the most important day you will ever experience is today. Today is the key to your success. Maxwell offers 12 decisions and disciplines-he calls it his daily dozen-that can be learned and mastered by any person to achieve success.

Real-Life Decision-Making

Author : Mats Danielson
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000936899
Total Pages : 141 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Real-Life Decision-Making by : Mats Danielson

Download or read book Real-Life Decision-Making written by Mats Danielson and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-08-08 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Have you ever experienced a decision situation that was hard to come to grips with? Did you ever feel a need to improve your decision-making skills? Is this something where you feel that you have not learned enough practical and useful methods? In that case, you are not alone! Even though decision-making is both considered and actually is a very important skill in modern work-life as well as in private life, these skills are not to any reasonable extent taught in schools at any level. No wonder many people do indeed feel the need to improve but have a hard time finding out how. This book is an attempt to remedy this shortcoming of our educational systems and possibly also of our common, partly intuition-based, decision culture. Intuition is not at all bad, quite the contrary, but it has to co-exist with rationality. We will show you how. Methods for decision-making should be of prime concern to any individual or organisation, even if the decision processes are not always explicitly or even consciously formulated. All kinds of organisations, as well as individuals, must continuously make decisions of the most varied nature in order to prosper and attain their objectives. A large part of the time spent in any organisation, not least at management levels, is spent gathering, processing, and compiling information for the purpose of making decisions supported by that information. The same interest has hitherto not been shown for individual decision-making, even though large gains would also be obtained at a personal level if important personal decisions were better deliberated. This book aims at changing that and thus attends to both categories of decision-makers. This book will take you through a journey starting with some history of decision-making and analysis and then go through easy-to-learn ways of structuring decision information and methods for analysing the decision situations, beginning with simple decision situations and then moving on to progressively harder ones, but never losing sight of the overarching goal that the reader should be able to follow the progression and being able to carry out similar decision analyses in real-life situations. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

Judgment, Decision-Making, and Embodied Choices

Author : Markus Raab
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128235608
Total Pages : 174 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (282 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment, Decision-Making, and Embodied Choices by : Markus Raab

Download or read book Judgment, Decision-Making, and Embodied Choices written by Markus Raab and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2020-10-14 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Judgment, Decision-Making, and Embodied Choices introduces a new concept of embodied choices which take sensorimotor experiences into account when limited time and resources forces a person to make a quick decision. This book combines areas of cognitive psychology and movement science, presenting an integrative approach to understanding human functioning in everyday scenarios. This is the first book focusing on the role of the gut as a second brain, introducing the link to risky behavior. The book's author engages readers by providing real-life experiences and scenarios connecting theory to practice. Discusses the role of gut feelings and the brain-gut behavior connection Demonstrates that behavior influences decision and other people’s perceptions about mood or character Includes research on medical decisions and shopping decisions Illustrates how to train embodied choices

Research Needs for Human Factors

Author : Richard W. Pew
Publisher : National Academies
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 176 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (475 download)

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Book Synopsis Research Needs for Human Factors by : Richard W. Pew

Download or read book Research Needs for Human Factors written by Richard W. Pew and published by National Academies. This book was released on 1983 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Decision Makeover

Author : Mike Whitaker
Publisher : Greenleaf Book Group
ISBN 13 : 1626344272
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis The Decision Makeover by : Mike Whitaker

Download or read book The Decision Makeover written by Mike Whitaker and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2017-09-12 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The secret of happy and successful people? Their ability to make good decisions. Changing careers, launching a business, starting a family, buying a home, moving to a new city? How do you know whether you’re making the right decision? In The Decision Makeover, Mike Whitaker offers a thoughtful and strategic approach for choosing wisely in all aspects of your life whether it’s about money, career, education, health, friends, or family. With his background in both business and psychology, he lays out a decision-making process that gives you the power to achieve your dreams. He even explains what to do if you’ve made some poor decisions along the way, so that you can move ahead without regret. Whitaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the difference between small and big decisions, and shows why defining your essential goals is the key to overcoming the roadblocks that can derail your progress. He reveals: • why your next decision could change your life forever • why you make bad decisions • how to avoid self-destructive decision-making • how to proceed confidently toward future decisions Filledwith engaging anecdotes and interactive exercises, The Decision Makeover gives you the tools to finally achieve all that you want. For young people just beginning to make important life decisions, or those who have seen it all and are ready for a “reset,” this timeless book is a must-have for anyone wanting to achieve the maximum success possible through purposeful decision making.

Fear of Missing Out

Author : Patrick J. McGinnis
Publisher : Sourcebooks, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1492694959
Total Pages : 225 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (926 download)

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Book Synopsis Fear of Missing Out by : Patrick J. McGinnis

Download or read book Fear of Missing Out written by Patrick J. McGinnis and published by Sourcebooks, Inc.. This book was released on 2020-05-05 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What are you really missing out on? You're home on a Friday night, scrolling through Instagram, ready to go to bed. You see pictures on your timeline of a party you were invited to, but didn't go to. You were confident when you said no, but now you can't stop thinking about it, and you start feeling worse. You have FOMO, or, Fear of Missing Out. Coined in a Harvard Business School article, FOMO has become a global term to describe the decimating anxiety when thinking other people are having better, more fulfilling, experiences than you are. It's a natural, biological response, but that doesn't make it feel any better. Amplified by the rise of social media, #FOMO has become a cultural crisis—so what's the cure? Patrick McGinnis, creator of the term FOMO, has been thinking about it for seventeen years—and he has a solution: decision-making. Learning to weigh the costs and benefits of your choices, prioritizing your decisions, and listening to your gut are central to silencing FOMO and its lesser-known cousin, FOBO: Fear of a Better Option. After all, don't you want to feel comfortable and confident in your decisions? Written with self-evaluations throughout the book, Fear of Missing Out: Practical Decision Making in a World of Overwhelming Choice helps you ascertain and eliminate the parts of your life that are causing more anxiety than happiness. So give this a read, and then go to that party, start that new book, create a new goal—or don't. Make that decision, and be confident in it: it's the first of many of its kind.