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Author : Jeremy Hammond
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 108 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations, Speculative Bubbles, and the Stock Market Crash of October 1987 written by Jeremy Hammond and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : G.P. Dwyer
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401578818
Total Pages : 206 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (15 download)
Download or read book The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility, and Chaos written by G.P. Dwyer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. and R. W. Hafer The articles and commentaries included in this volume were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' thirteenth annual economic policy conference, held on October 21-22, 1988. The conference focused on the behavior of asset market prices, a topic of increasing interest to both the popular press and to academic journals as the bull market of the 1980s continued. The events that transpired during October, 1987, both in the United States and abroad, provide an informative setting to test alter native theories. In assembling the papers presented during this conference, we asked the authors to explore the issue of asset pricing and financial market behavior from several vantages. Was the crash evidence of the bursting of a speculative bubble? Do we know enough about the work ings of asset markets to hazard an intelligent guess why they dropped so dramatically in such a brief time? Do we know enough to propose regulatory changes that will prevent any such occurrence in the future, or do we want to even if we can? We think that the articles and commentaries contained in this volume provide significant insight to inform and to answer such questions. The article by Behzad Diba surveys existing theoretical and empirical research on rational bubbles in asset prices.
Author : David F. DeRosa
Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN 13 : 1952927110
Total Pages : 206 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (529 download)
Download or read book Bursting the Bubble: Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market written by David F. DeRosa and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2021-04-02 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The presence of speculative bubbles in capital markets (an important area of interest in financial history) is widely accepted across many circles. Talk of them is pervasive in the media and especially in the popular financial press. Bubbles are thought to be found primarily in the stock market, which is our main interest, although bubbles are said to occur in other markets. Bubbles go hand in hand with the notion that markets can be irrational. The academic community has a great interest in bubbles, and it has produced scholarly literature that is voluminous. For some economists, doing bubble research is like joining the vanguard of a Kuhnian paradigm shift in economic thinking. Not so fast. If bubbles did exist, they would pose a serious challenge to neoclassical finance. Bubbles would contradict the ideas that markets are rational or work in an informationally efficient manner. That’s what makes the topic of bubbles interesting. This book reviews and evaluates the academic literature as well as some popular investment books on the possible existence of speculative bubbles in the stock market. The main question is whether there is convincing empirical evidence that bubbles exist. A second question is whether the theoretical concepts that have been advanced for bubbles make them plausible. The reader will discover that I am skeptical that bubbles actually exist. But I do not think I or anyone else will ever be able to conclusively prove that there has never been a bubble. From studying the literature and from reading history, I find that many famous purported bubbles reflect inaccurate history or mistakes in analysis or simply cannot be shown to have existed. In other instances, bubbles might have existed. But in each of those cases, there are credible rational explanations. And good evidence exists for the idea that even if bubbles do exist, they are not of great importance to understanding the stock market.
Author : Didier Sornette
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400885094
Total Pages : 449 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Why Stock Markets Crash written by Didier Sornette and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-21 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.
Author : United States. Presidential Task Force on Market Mechanisms
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (512 download)
Download or read book Report of the Presidential Task Force on Market Mechanisms written by United States. Presidential Task Force on Market Mechanisms and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : William Curt Hunter
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262582537
Total Pages : 650 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (825 download)
Download or read book Asset Price Bubbles written by William Curt Hunter and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.
Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475561008
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Author :
Publisher : Ludwig von Mises Institute
ISBN 13 : 1610164555
Total Pages : 147 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (11 download)
Download or read book Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money written by and published by Ludwig von Mises Institute. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Housing Bubble was hardly the first in human history. What's eluded historians is the same issue that eludes commentators today: the underlying cause of bubbles. This book is the first (and only) book to solve the mystery of the most famous bubble in world history: Tulipmania in 17th century Netherlands. It Is a legendary event but explanations have been lacking. People blame irrational exuberance, free markets, and an unleashed aristocracy. Douglas French takes a different route: he follows the money to prove that the bubble resulted from a government intervention that dramatically exploded the money supply and fueled the tulip-price bubble – not altogether different from modern bubbles. This book was French’s Master’s thesis written under the direction of Murray Rothbard and examining three of the most famous speculative bubble episodes in history through the lens of Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Although each of these episodes is well documented, this book examines the monetary interventions that engendered each of these events showing that not only the Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble were caused by government meddling, but Tulipmania was as well. Tulipmania was unique in that it was the sound money policy of the Dutch combined with free coinage laws that led to an acute increase in the supply of money and fostered an atmosphere that was ripe for speculation and malinvestment, manifesting itself in the intense trading of tulip bulbs. The author examines not only the Mississippi Bubble but also the life and monetary theories of its architect, John Law. Professor Joe Salerno calls Law the world’s first macroeconomist who implemented a Keynesian monetary system in France nearly two hundred years before Keynes was born. At the same time across the English Channel, a nearly bankrupt British government looked on with envy at Law’s system, believing that he was working a financial miracle. It was anything but this and investors in both countries were devastated. Although these episodes occurred centuries ago, readers will find the events eerily similar to today’s bubbles and busts: low interest rates, easy credit terms, widespread public participation, bankrupt governments, price inflation, frantic attempts by government to keep the booms going, and government bailouts of companies after the crash. When will we learn? We first have to get cause and effect in history straight. This book is an excellent contribution to that effort.
Author : Peter M. Garber
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262571531
Total Pages : 180 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (715 download)
Download or read book Famous First Bubbles written by Peter M. Garber and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001-08-24 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.
Author : William H. Janeway
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107031257
Total Pages : 345 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy written by William H. Janeway and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-10-08 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique insight into the interaction between the state, financiers and entrepreneurs in the modern innovation economy.
Author : Robert P. Flood
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262061698
Total Pages : 528 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (616 download)
Download or read book Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks, and Policy Switching written by Robert P. Flood and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this book are grouped into three sections: the first on price bubbles is primarily financial; the second on speculative attacks (on exchange rate regimes) is international in scope; and the third, on policy switching, is concerned with monetary policy.
Author : Donald Rapp
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1493910922
Total Pages : 374 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (939 download)
Download or read book Bubbles, Booms, and Busts written by Donald Rapp and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-11-14 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals at some length with the question: Since there are many more poor than rich, why don’t the poor just tax the rich heavily and reduce the inequality? In the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century, the topic of inequality was discussed widely. Ending or reducing inequality was a prime motivating factor in the emergence of communism and socialism. The book discusses why later in the 20th century, inequality has faded out as an issue. Extensive tables and graphs of data are presented showing the extent of inequality in America, as well as globally. It is shown that a combination of low taxes on capital gains contributed to a series of real estate and stock bubbles that provided great wealth to the top tiers, while real income for average workers stagnated. Improved commercial efficiency due to computers, electronics, the Internet and fast transport allowed production and distribution with fewer workers, just as the advent of electrification, mechanization, production lines, vehicles and trains in the 1920s and 1930s produced the same stagnating effect.
Author : Markus Konrad Brunnermeier
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 9780198296980
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (969 download)
Download or read book Asset Pricing Under Asymmetric Information written by Markus Konrad Brunnermeier and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2001 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role of information is central to the academic debate on finance. This book provides a detailed, current survey of theoretical research into the effect on stock prices of the distribution of information, comparing and contrasting major models. It examines theoretical models that explain bubbles, technical analysis, and herding behavior. It also provides rational explanations for stock market crashes. Analyzing the implications of asymmetries in information is crucial in this area. This book provides a useful survey for graduate students.
Author : Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1616405414
Total Pages : 692 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (164 download)
Download or read book The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report written by Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.
Author : Gikas Angelos Hardouvelis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Stock Market Bubbles Before the Crash of 1987? written by Gikas Angelos Hardouvelis and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Matthias Salge
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783540626299
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (262 download)
Download or read book Rational Bubbles written by Matthias Salge and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1997-05-23 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 3 On the Economic Relevance of Rational Bubbles 79 3. 1 Capital markets . . . . . . . . . 80 3. 1. 1 Efficient capital markets 86 3. 1. 2 Rational bubbles on capital markets. 93 3. 1. 3 Economic caveats . 103 3. 2 Foreign exchange markets 109 3. 3 Hyperinflation. . . . . . . 117 4 On Testing for Rational Bubbles 123 4. 1 Indirect tests . . . . . . . . . 123 4. 1. 1 Variance bounds tests 124 4. 1. 2 Specification tests . . . 137 4. 1. 3 Integration and cointegration tests 140 4. 1. 4 Final assessment of indirect tests . 150 4. 1. 5 A digression: Charemza, Deadman (1995) analysis. 151 4. 2 Direct tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 4. 2. 1 Deterministic bubble in German hyperinflation. 158 4. 2. 2 Intrinsic bubbles on stock markets. 163 4. 2. 3 An econometric caveat . . . . . 168 4. 2. 4 Final assessment of direct tests 172 5 On the Explanatory Power of Rational Bubbles on the G- man Stock Market 175 5. 1 Data . . . . . . . 175 5. 2 Direct test for rational bubbles 181 5. 2. 1 Temporary Markovian bubbles. 184 5. 2. 2 Temporary intrinsic bubbles . . 193 ix 5. 2. 3 Permanent intrinsic bubbles 198 5. 3 A digression: Testing for unit roots 204 6 Concluding Remarks 215 A Results 221 A. 1 Temporary markovian bubbles. 221 A. 2 Temporary intrinsic bubbles . . 225 A. 3 Permanent intrinsic bubbles - Class 1 to 2 229 A. 4 Permanent intrinsic bubbles - Class 3 to 6 230 A. 5 Integration tests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Author : David Glasner
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136545204
Total Pages : 796 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (365 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles and Depressions written by David Glasner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 796 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experts define, review, and evaluate economic fluctuations Economic and business uncertainty dominate today's economic analyses. This new Encyclopedia illuminates the subject by offering 323 original articles on every major aspect of business cycles, fluctuations, financial crises, recessions, and depressions. The work of more than 200 experts, including many of the leading researchers in the field, the articles cover a broad range of subjects, including capsule biographies of leading economists born before 1920. Individual entries explore banking panics, the cobweb cycle, consumer durables, the depression of 1937-1938, Otto Eckstein, Friedrich Engels, experimental price bubbles, forced savings, lass-Steagall Act, Friedrich hagen, qualitative indicators, use of macro-econometric models, monetary neutrality, Phillips Curve, Paul Samuelson, Say's law, supply-side recessions, James Tokin, trend and random wages, Thorstein Veblen, worker-job turnover, and more.
