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Rational Expectations And Efficiency In Futures Markets
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Book Synopsis Rational Expectations and Efficiency in Futures Markets by : Barry Goss
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Efficiency in Futures Markets written by Barry Goss and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005-10-09 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do traders in futures markets make use of all relevant information and is this reflected in prices? This collection of original essays by a team of international economists considers these and other questions central to futures markets.
Download or read book Imagined Futures written by Jens Beckert and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-07 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a capitalist system, consumers, investors, and corporations orient their activities toward a future that contains opportunities and risks. How actors assess uncertainty is a problem that economists have tried to solve through general equilibrium and rational expectations theory. Powerful as these analytical tools are, they underestimate the future’s unknowability by assuming that markets, in the aggregate, correctly forecast what is to come. Jens Beckert adds a new chapter to the theory of capitalism by demonstrating how fictional expectations drive modern economies—or throw them into crisis when the imagined futures fail to materialize. Collectively held images of how the future will unfold are critical because they free economic actors from paralyzing doubt, enabling them to commit resources and coordinate decisions even if those expectations prove inaccurate. Beckert distinguishes fictional expectations from performativity theory, which holds that predictions tend to become self-fulfilling prophecies. Economic forecasts are important not because they produce the futures they envision but because they create the expectations that generate economic activity in the first place. Actors pursue money, investments, innovations, and consumption only if they believe the objects obtained through market exchanges will retain value. We accept money because we believe in its future purchasing power. We accept the risk of capital investments and innovation because we expect profit. And we purchase consumer goods based on dreams of satisfaction. As Imagined Futures shows, those who ignore the role of real uncertainty and fictional expectations in market dynamics misunderstand the nature of capitalism.
Book Synopsis Information and Learning in Markets by : Xavier Vives
Download or read book Information and Learning in Markets written by Xavier Vives and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-01-25 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ways financial analysts, traders, and other specialists use information and learn from each other are of fundamental importance to understanding how markets work and prices are set. This graduate-level textbook analyzes how markets aggregate information and examines the impacts of specific market arrangements--or microstructure--on the aggregation process and overall performance of financial markets. Xavier Vives bridges the gap between the two primary views of markets--informational efficiency and herding--and uses a coherent game-theoretic framework to bring together the latest results from the rational expectations and herding literatures. Vives emphasizes the consequences of market interaction and social learning for informational and economic efficiency. He looks closely at information aggregation mechanisms, progressing from simple to complex environments: from static to dynamic models; from competitive to strategic agents; and from simple market strategies such as noncontingent orders or quantities to complex ones like price contingent orders or demand schedules. Vives finds that contending theories like informational efficiency and herding build on the same principles of Bayesian decision making and that "irrational" agents are not needed to explain herding behavior, booms, and crashes. As this book shows, the microstructure of a market is the crucial factor in the informational efficiency of prices. Provides the most complete analysis of the ways markets aggregate information Bridges the gap between the rational expectations and herding literatures Includes exercises with solutions Serves both as a graduate textbook and a resource for researchers, including financial analysts
Book Synopsis Mean Markets and Lizard Brains by : Terry Burnham
Download or read book Mean Markets and Lizard Brains written by Terry Burnham and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2008-09-29 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyone from journalists to market pros are turning to behavioral finance to explain, analyze, and predict market direction. In contrast to old-school assumptions of cool-headed rationality, the new behavioral school embraces hot-blooded human irrationality as a core feature of both individuals and financial markets. The 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to scholars of this new scientific approach to irrationality. In Mean Markets and Lizard Brains, Terry Burnham, an economist who has a proven ability to translate complex topics into everyday language, reveals the biological causes of irrationality. The human brain contains ancient structures that exert powerful and often unconscious influences on behavior. This "lizard brain" may have helped our ancestors eat and reproduce, but it wreaks havoc with our finances. Going far beyond cataloguing our financial foibles, Dr. Burnham applies this novel approach to all of today's most important financial topics: the stock market, the economy, real estate, bonds, mortgages, inflation, and savings. This broad and scholarly investigation provides an in-depth look at why manias, panics, and crashes happen, and why people are built to want to buy at irrationally high prices and sell at irrationally low prices. Most importantly, by incorporating the new science of irrationality, readers can position themselves to profit from financial markets that often seem downright mean. Mean Markets and Lizard Brains skillfully identifies the craziness that is part of human nature, helps us see it in ourselves, and then shows us how to profit from a world that doesn't always make sense.
Book Synopsis Behavioral Finance by : Lucy F. Ackert
Download or read book Behavioral Finance written by Lucy F. Ackert and published by South Western Educational Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book begins by building upon the established, conventional principles of finance that you've have already learned in your principles course. The authors then move into psychological principles of behavioral finance, including heuristics and biases, overconfidence, emotion and social forces. You immediately see how human behavior influences the decisions of individual investors and professional finance practitioners, managers, and markets. You also gain a strong understanding of how social forces impact individuals' choices. The book clearly explains what behavioral finance indicates about observed market outcomes as well as how psychological biases potentially impact the behavior of managers. The book's solid academic approach provides opportunities for you to utilize theory and complete applications in every chapter as you learn the implications of behavioral finance on retirement, pensions, education, debiasing, and client management. The book spends a significant amount of time examining how today's practitioners can use behavioral finance to further their professional success.
Book Synopsis The Rational Expectations Revolution by : Preston J. Miller
Download or read book The Rational Expectations Revolution written by Preston J. Miller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These 21 readings describe the orgins and growth of the macroeconomic analysis known as "rational expectations". The readings trace the development of this approach from the late 1970s to the 1990s.
Book Synopsis Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets by : Wing-Keung Wong
Download or read book Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets written by Wing-Keung Wong and published by Mdpi AG. This book was released on 2022-02-17 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.
Book Synopsis The Informational Role of Prices by : Sanford J. Grossman
Download or read book The Informational Role of Prices written by Sanford J. Grossman and published by MIT Press (MA). This book was released on 1989 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A uniform framework for understanding how prices convey information in securities markets.
Book Synopsis Understanding Strategic Interaction by : Wulf Albers
Download or read book Understanding Strategic Interaction written by Wulf Albers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategic interaction occurs whenever it depends on others what one finally obtains: on markets, in firms, in politics etc. Game theorists analyse such interaction normatively, using numerous different methods. The rationalistic approach assumes perfect rationality whereas behavioral theories take into account cognitive limitations of human decision makers. In the animal kingdom one usually refers to evolutionary forces when explaining social interaction. The volume contains innovative contributions, surveys of previous work and two interviews which shed new light on these important topics of the research agenda. The contributions come from highly regarded researchers from all over the world who like to express in this way their intellectual inspiration by the Nobel-laureate Reinhard Selten.
Download or read book Inequalities written by G. H. Hardy and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1952 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This classic of the mathematical literature forms a comprehensive study of the inequalities used throughout mathematics. First published in 1934, it presents clearly and lucidly both the statement and proof of all the standard inequalities of analysis. The authors were well-known for their powers of exposition and made this subject accessible to a wide audience of mathematicians.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Book Synopsis Models of Futures Markets by : Barry Goss
Download or read book Models of Futures Markets written by Barry Goss and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents an entirely new analysis of the economics of futures markets, that will be of interest to both specialists in the area and the generalist economist seeking a new perspective. Through a combination of theoretical investigation and empirical application, three important themes are explored: the gains from futures trading and the efforts of emerging markets to reap these benefits; rationality and rival hypotheses of trader behaviour, such as noise trading; and the effect of regulatory tools on price formation.
Book Synopsis The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence by : Andrew Ang
Download or read book The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence written by Andrew Ang and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2011 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) asserts that, at all times, the price of a security reflects all available information about its fundamental value. The implication of the EMH for investors is that, to the extent that speculative trading is costly, speculation must be a loser's game. Hence, under the EMH, a passive strategy is bound eventually to beat a strategy that uses active management, where active management is characterized as trading that seeks to exploit mispriced assets relative to a risk-adjusted benchmark. The EMH has been refined over the past several decades to reflect the realism of the marketplace, including costly information, transactions costs, financing, agency costs, and other real-world frictions. The most recent expressions of the EMH thus allow a role for arbitrageurs in the market who may profit from their comparative advantages. These advantages may include specialized knowledge, lower trading costs, low management fees or agency costs, and a financing structure that allows the arbitrageur to undertake trades with long verification periods. The actions of these arbitrageurs cause liquid securities markets to be generally fairly efficient with respect to information, despite some notable anomalies.
Book Synopsis Storage and Commodity Markets by : Jeffrey C. Williams
Download or read book Storage and Commodity Markets written by Jeffrey C. Williams and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991-03-29 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with the capability to store surplus commodities and the impact of stockpiles on prices and production.
Book Synopsis Rational Expectations by : Steven M. Sheffrin
Download or read book Rational Expectations written by Steven M. Sheffrin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1996-06-13 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops the idea of rational expectations and surveys its use in economics today.
Book Synopsis Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets by : Apostolos Serletis
Download or read book Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets written by Apostolos Serletis and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2007-04-27 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bringing together leading-edge research and innovative energy markets econometrics, this book collects the author's most important recent contributions in energy economics. In particular, the book:• applies recent advances in the field of applied econometrics to investigate a number of issues regarding energy markets, including the theory of storage and the efficient markets hypothesis• presents the basic stylized facts on energy price movements using correlation analysis, causality tests, integration theory, cointegration theory, as well as recently developed procedures for testing for shared and codependent cycles• uses recent advances in the financial econometrics literature to model time-varying returns and volatility in energy prices and to test for causal relationships between energy prices and their volatilities• explores the functioning of electricity markets and applies conventional models of time series analysis to investigate a number of issues regarding wholesale power prices in the western North American markets• applies tools from statistics and dynamical systems theory to test for nonlinear dynamics and deterministic chaos in a number of North American hydrocarbon markets (those of ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, naptha, crude oil, and natural gas)
Book Synopsis Essays in Financial Economics by : Rita Biswas
Download or read book Essays in Financial Economics written by Rita Biswas and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2019-10-24 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume, dedicated to John W. Kensinger, explores a variety of topics in financial economics, including firm growth, investment risks, and the profitability of the banking industry. With its global perspective, Essays in Financial Economics is a valuable addition to the bookshelf of any researcher in finance.
