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Author : Boum-Jong Choe
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Commodity Price Forecasts written by Boum-Jong Choe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Boum Jong Choe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Commodity Price Forecasts written by Boum Jong Choe and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasts for the primary commodity market by the Bank's International Commodity Markets Division - with significant but not excessive adaptation to spot- price movements - probably are reasonable, optimal short- term forecasts, superior to "naive" forecasts or futures prices.
Author : Boum Jong Choe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (777 download)
Download or read book Rational expectations and commodity price forecast written by Boum Jong Choe and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Boum-Jong Choe
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book Commodity Price Forecasts and Futures Prices written by Boum-Jong Choe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1990 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Barry Goss
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 113497521X
Total Pages : 252 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (349 download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Efficiency in Futures Markets written by Barry Goss and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005-10-09 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do traders in futures markets make use of all relevant information and is this reflected in prices? This collection of original essays by a team of international economists considers these and other questions central to futures markets.
Author : Roman Frydman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521310956
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-10-02 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes.
Author : C. L. Gilbert
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book The Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Models of Primary Commodity Prices written by C. L. Gilbert and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard linear model fails to account for primary commodity price movements in any significant area, so it is important to do more empirical work to learn to which commodities this nonlinear model applies.
Author : L. Alan Winters
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521385503
Total Pages : 334 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (855 download)
Download or read book Primary Commodity Prices written by L. Alan Winters and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-03-08 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of an international conference on 'Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy', held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities covers topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this stock is its development of the policy implications of theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussant's comments to draw out their technical and policy implications. The book's readership will include commodity economists, commodity market practitioners and policy analysis, as well as professionals and advanced students interested in the fields of applied econometrics, economic development and international trade.
Author : Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226531929
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (265 download)
Download or read book A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.
Author : François Gardes
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Price Expectations in Goods and Financial Markets written by François Gardes and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2000 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and scholars in related fields discuss the concept of rationality of expectations from both a theoretical and an empirical point of view, and at both individual and collective levels. Concerning the first aspect, the book focuses on how agents collect and process information and how market opinion is formed. Concerning the second aspect, it presents studies based on individual price expectations and on the consensus revealed by survey data. Contributors analyze price expectations in a variety of markets, periods, and countries, paying special attention to financial markets which have represented the main field of study over the last ten years. Annotation copyrighted by Book News Inc., Portland, OR
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Peter von zur Muehlen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Predicting Inflation with Commodity Prices written by Peter von zur Muehlen and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents extensive results from testing for bias and serially correlated errors in a large collection of quarterly multiperiod predictions from surveys conducted since 1968 by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the American Statistical Association. The tests of the joint null hypothesis that the regressions of actual on predicted values have zero intercepts and unitary slope coefficients are very unfavorable to the expectations of inflation, but they show the forecasts of several other variables in a generally much better light. There have been strong tendencies for the forecasters in this period to underestimate inflation and overestimate real growth. Considerable attention is given to the effects of the sample size--the issue of the power of the tests--and also to the extent and role of autocorrelations among the residual errors from these regressions. Rationality in the sense of efficient use of relevant information implies the absence of systematic elements in series of errors from the forecaster's own predictions, measured strictly in the form in which such errors could have been known at the time of the forecast. The frequencies of significant auto-correlations among errors so measured vary greatly across the forecasts for different variables, being very high for inflation, high for inventory investment and the unemployment rate, and much lower for most of the predictions ofthe other variables covered (rates of change in nominal and real GNP and expenditures on consumer durables). The corresponding tests for the group meanforecasts show much less evidence of serially correlated ex ante errors, except for inflation.
Author : Prathap Ramanujam
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Commodity Prices, Financial Markets and World Income written by Prathap Ramanujam and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Matthew Phillip Schaefer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Accuracy, Rational Expectations, and Market Efficiency in the US Beef Cattle Industry written by Matthew Phillip Schaefer and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Roman Frydman
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400846455
Total Pages : 440 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-23 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.
Author : B.R. Munier
Publisher : IOS Press
ISBN 13 : 1614990379
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (149 download)
Download or read book Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices written by B.R. Munier and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012-04-24 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.
