Rational Decision

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Rational Decisions

Author : Ken Binmore
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400833094
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Decisions by : Ken Binmore

Download or read book Rational Decisions written by Ken Binmore and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-12-29 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds. The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies. Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.

Rational Decisions in Organisations

Author : Frédéric Adam
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000543102
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Decisions in Organisations by : Frédéric Adam

Download or read book Rational Decisions in Organisations written by Frédéric Adam and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-05-30 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managers in organisations must make rational decisions. Rational decision making is the opposite of intuitive decision making. It is a strict procedure utilising objective knowledge and logic. It involves identifying the problem to solve, gathering facts, identifying options and outcomes, analysing them, considering all the relationships and selecting the decision. Rational decision making requires support: methods and software tools. The identification of the problem to solve needs methods that would measure and evaluate the current situation. Identification and evaluation of options and analysis of the available possibilities involves analysis and optimisation methods. Incorporating intuition into rational decision making needs adequate methods that would translate ideas or observed behaviours into hard data. Communication, observation and opinions recording is hardly possible today without adequate software. Information and data that form the input, intermediate variables and the output must be stored, managed and made accessible in a user-friendly manner. Rational Decisions in Organisations: Theoretical and Practical Aspects presents selected recent developments in the support of the widely understood rational decision making in organisations, illustrated through case studies. The book shows not only the variety of perspectives involved in decision making, but also the variety of domains where rational decision support systems are needed. The case studies present decision making by medical doctors, students and managers of various universities, IT project teams, construction companies, banks and small and large manufacturing companies. Covering the richness of relationships in which the decisions should and must be taken, the book illustrates how modern organisations operate in chains and networks; they have multiple responsibilities, including social, legal, business and ethical duties. Nowadays, managers in organisations can make transparent decisions and consider a multitude of stakeholders and their diverse features, incorporating diverse criteria, using multiple types and drivers of information and decision-making patterns, and referring to numerous lessons learned. As the book makes clear, the marriage of theoretical ideas with the possibilities offered by technology can make the decisions in organisations more rational and, at the same time, more human.

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World

Author : Reid Hastie
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 1412959039
Total Pages : 393 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Choice in an Uncertain World by : Reid Hastie

Download or read book Rational Choice in an Uncertain World written by Reid Hastie and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2010 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.

Simply Rational

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Evolution and Cognition
ISBN 13 : 019939007X
Total Pages : 329 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (993 download)

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Book Synopsis Simply Rational by : Gerd Gigerenzer

Download or read book Simply Rational written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Evolution and Cognition. This book was released on 2015 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a heuristic revolution that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.

Rational Decision Making

Author : Franz Eisenführ
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783642028519
Total Pages : 447 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (285 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Decision Making by : Franz Eisenführ

Download or read book Rational Decision Making written by Franz Eisenführ and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Rational Decision-Making

Author : Hamid Noorani
Publisher : Xlibris Corporation
ISBN 13 : 146912453X
Total Pages : 183 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (691 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Decision-Making by : Hamid Noorani

Download or read book Rational Decision-Making written by Hamid Noorani and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: RATIONAL DECISION-MAKING For a Brighter FutureFor the Love of the World This book shows youthrough examples and application exerciseshow to make rational decisions that will make you more productive. Based on the modern philosophy of Systems-Thinking, the book presents a well-defined path to living a productive life: making rational choices that will help you meet your long-term goals and fulfill your obligations to others. To assist you, the book provides tools and concepts you can use to set your objectives, identify and weigh the options, and evaluate the expected benefits. And the many thought-provoking, real-life situations will show you how to craft strategic initiativeswhether in individual, group, organizational, or public policy decisions.

Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319114247
Total Pages : 178 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making by : Tshilidzi Marwala

Download or read book Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-10-20 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Develops insights into solving complex problems in engineering, biomedical sciences, social science and economics based on artificial intelligence. Some of the problems studied are in interstate conflict, credit scoring, breast cancer diagnosis, condition monitoring, wine testing, image processing and optical character recognition. The author discusses and applies the concept of flexibly-bounded rationality which prescribes that the bounds in Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon’s bounded rationality theory are flexible due to advanced signal processing techniques, Moore’s Law and artificial intelligence. Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making examines and defines the concepts of causal and correlation machines and applies the transmission theory of causality as a defining factor that distinguishes causality from correlation. It develops the theory of rational counterfactuals which are defined as counterfactuals that are intended to maximize the attainment of a particular goal within the context of a bounded rational decision making process. Furthermore, it studies four methods for dealing with irrelevant information in decision making: Theory of the marginalization of irrelevant information Principal component analysis Independent component analysis Automatic relevance determination method In addition it studies the concept of group decision making and various ways of effecting group decision making within the context of artificial intelligence. Rich in methods of artificial intelligence including rough sets, neural networks, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, incremental learning and fuzzy networks, this book will be welcomed by researchers and students working in these areas.

Rationalizing Capitalist Democracy

Author : S.M. Amadae
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226016544
Total Pages : 414 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis Rationalizing Capitalist Democracy by : S.M. Amadae

Download or read book Rationalizing Capitalist Democracy written by S.M. Amadae and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2003-10-15 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offering a fascinating biography of a foundational theory, Amadae reveals not only how the ideological battles of the Cold War shaped ideas but also how those ideas may today be undermining the very notion of individual liberty they were created to defend.

Rational Diagnosis and Treatment

Author : Peter Gøtzsche
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470723685
Total Pages : 244 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (236 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Diagnosis and Treatment by : Peter Gøtzsche

Download or read book Rational Diagnosis and Treatment written by Peter Gøtzsche and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-03-11 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its fourth edition, Rational Diagnosis and Treatment: Evidence-Based Clinical Decision-Making is a unique book to look at evidence-based medicine and the difficulty of applying evidence from group studies to individual patients. The book analyses the successive stages of the decision process and deals with topics such as the examination of the patient, the reliability of clinical data, the logic of diagnosis, the fallacies of uncontrolled therapeutic experience and the need for randomised clinical trials and meta-analyses. It is the main theme of the book that, whenever possible, clinical decisions must be based on the evidence from clinical research, but the authors also explain the pitfalls of such research and the problems involved in applying evidence from groups of patients to the individual patient. For this new edition, the sections on placebo and meta-analysis and on alternative medicine have been thoroughly updated, and there is more focus on insufficient reporting of harms of interventions. The sections on different research designs describe advantages and limitations, and the increased medicalisation and the effects of cancer screening on health people are noted. A section on academic freedom when clinicians collaborate with industry and ghost authors is added. This essential reference work integrates the science and statistical approach of evidence-based medicine with the art and humanism of medical practice; distinguishing between data, sets of data, knowledge and wisdom, and their application. Such an intellectually challenging book is ideal for both medical students and doctors who require theoretical and practical clinical skills to help ensure that they apply theory in practice.

Thinking about Acting

Author : John L. Pollock
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199838860
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking about Acting by : John L. Pollock

Download or read book Thinking about Acting written by John L. Pollock and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-07-27 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Pollock aims to construct a theory of rational decision making for real agents--not ideal agents. Real agents have limited cognitive powers, but traditional theories of rationality have applied only to idealized agents that lack such constraints. Pollock argues that theories of ideal rationality are largely irrelevant to the decision making of real agents. Thinking about Acting aims to provide a theory of "real rationality."

Rational Descriptions, Decisions and Designs

Author : Myron Tribus
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 1483146235
Total Pages : 500 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (831 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Descriptions, Decisions and Designs by : Myron Tribus

Download or read book Rational Descriptions, Decisions and Designs written by Myron Tribus and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rational Descriptions, Decisions and Designs is a reference for understanding the aspects of rational decision theory in terms of the basic formalism of information theory. The text provides ways to achieve correct engineering design decisions. The book starts with an understanding for the need to apply rationality, as opposed to uncertainty, in design decision making. Inductive logic in computers is explained where the design of the machine and the accompanying software are considered. The text then explains the functional equations and the problems of arriving at a rational description through some mathematical preliminaries. Bayes' equation and rational inference as tools for adjusting probabilities when something new is encountered in earlier probability distributions are explained. The book presents as well a case study concerning the error made in following specifications of spark plugs. The author also explains the Bernoulli trials, where a probability that a better hypothesis than that already adopted may exist. The rational measure of uncertainty and the principle of maximum entropy with sample calculations are included in the text. After considering the probabilities, the decision theory is taken up where engineering design follows. Examples regarding transmitter and voltmeter designs are presented. The book ends by explaining probabilities of success and failure as applied to reliability engineering, that it is a state of knowledge rather than the state of a thing. The text can serve as a textbook for students in technology engineering and design, and as a useful reference for mathematicians, statisticians, and fabrication engineers.

Rational Choice Theory and Organizational Theory

Author : Mary Zey
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 9780803951365
Total Pages : 156 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (513 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Choice Theory and Organizational Theory by : Mary Zey

Download or read book Rational Choice Theory and Organizational Theory written by Mary Zey and published by SAGE. This book was released on 1998 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rational Choice Theory and Organizational Theory is written in response to the neo-classical economic rational choice theories and organizational economic theories which have emerged in the past decade and gained center stage in current organizational analysis.

Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance

Author : Ali Farazmand
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030662527
Total Pages : 13623 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (36 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance by : Ali Farazmand

Download or read book Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance written by Ali Farazmand and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-04-05 with total page 13623 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This global encyclopedic work serves as a comprehensive collection of global scholarship regarding the vast fields of public administration, public policy, governance, and management. Written and edited by leading international scholars and practitioners, this exhaustive resource covers all areas of the above fields and their numerous subfields of study. In keeping with the multidisciplinary spirit of these fields and subfields, the entries make use of various theoretical, empirical, analytical, practical, and methodological bases of knowledge. Expanded and updated, the second edition includes over a thousand of new entries representing the most current research in public administration, public policy, governance, nonprofit and nongovernmental organizations, and management covering such important sub-areas as: 1. organization theory, behavior, change and development; 2. administrative theory and practice; 3. Bureaucracy; 4. public budgeting and financial management; 5. public economy and public management 6. public personnel administration and labor-management relations; 7. crisis and emergency management; 8. institutional theory and public administration; 9. law and regulations; 10. ethics and accountability; 11. public governance and private governance; 12. Nonprofit management and nongovernmental organizations; 13. Social, health, and environmental policy areas; 14. pandemic and crisis management; 15. administrative and governance reforms; 16. comparative public administration and governance; 17. globalization and international issues; 18. performance management; 19. geographical areas of the world with country-focused entries like Japan, China, Latin America, Europe, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Russia and Eastern Europe, North America; and 20. a lot more. Relevant to professionals, experts, scholars, general readers, researchers, policy makers and manger, and students worldwide, this work will serve as the most viable global reference source for those looking for an introduction and advance knowledge to the field.

Risk and Rationality

Author : Lara Buchak
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 0199672164
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk and Rationality by : Lara Buchak

Download or read book Risk and Rationality written by Lara Buchak and published by . This book was released on 2013-11 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lara Buchak sets out a new account of rational decision-making in the face of risk. She argues that the orthodox view (expected utility theory) is too narrow, and suggests an alternative, more permissive theory: one that allows individuals to pay attention to the worst-case or best-case scenario, and vindicates the ordinary decision-maker.

Autonomy, Rationality, and Contemporary Bioethics

Author : Jonathan Pugh
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198858582
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (988 download)

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Book Synopsis Autonomy, Rationality, and Contemporary Bioethics by : Jonathan Pugh

Download or read book Autonomy, Rationality, and Contemporary Bioethics written by Jonathan Pugh and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Personal autonomy is often lauded as a key value in contemporary Western bioethics, and the claim that there is an important relationship between autonomy and rationality is often treated as an uncontroversial claim in this sphere. Yet, there is also considerable disagreement about how we should cash out the relationship between rationality and autonomy. In particular, it is unclear whether a rationalist view of autonomy can be compatible with legal judgments that enshrine a patient's right to refuse medical treatment, regardless of whether ". . . the reasons for making the choice are rational, irrational, unknown or even non-existent". In this book, I bring recent philosophical work on the nature of rationality to bear on the question of how we should understand autonomy in contemporary bioethics. In doing so, I develop a new framework for thinking about the concept, one that is grounded in an understanding of the different roles that rational beliefs and rational desires have to play in personal autonomy. Furthermore, the account outlined here allows for a deeper understanding of different form of controlling influence, and the relationship between our freedom to act, and our capacity to decide autonomously. I contrast my rationalist with other prominent accounts of autonomy in bioethics, and outline the revisionary implications it has for various practical questions in bioethics in which autonomy is a salient concern, including questions about the nature of informed consent and decision-making capacity.

Causality, Correlation And Artificial Intelligence For Rational Decision Making

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814630888
Total Pages : 207 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (146 download)

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Book Synopsis Causality, Correlation And Artificial Intelligence For Rational Decision Making by : Tshilidzi Marwala

Download or read book Causality, Correlation And Artificial Intelligence For Rational Decision Making written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-01-02 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Causality has been a subject of study for a long time. Often causality is confused with correlation. Human intuition has evolved such that it has learned to identify causality through correlation. In this book, four main themes are considered and these are causality, correlation, artificial intelligence and decision making. A correlation machine is defined and built using multi-layer perceptron network, principal component analysis, Gaussian Mixture models, genetic algorithms, expectation maximization technique, simulated annealing and particle swarm optimization. Furthermore, a causal machine is defined and built using multi-layer perceptron, radial basis function, Bayesian statistics and Hybrid Monte Carlo methods. Both these machines are used to build a Granger non-linear causality model. In addition, the Neyman-Rubin, Pearl and Granger causal models are studied and are unified. The automatic relevance determination is also applied to extend Granger causality framework to the non-linear domain. The concept of rational decision making is studied, and the theory of flexibly-bounded rationality is used to extend the theory of bounded rationality within the principle of the indivisibility of rationality. The theory of the marginalization of irrationality for decision making is also introduced to deal with satisficing within irrational conditions. The methods proposed are applied in biomedical engineering, condition monitoring and for modelling interstate conflict.

Well-Grounded

Author : Kelly Lambert
Publisher : Yale University Press
ISBN 13 : 0300240910
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Well-Grounded by : Kelly Lambert

Download or read book Well-Grounded written by Kelly Lambert and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-25 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A neuroscientist reveals unique aspects of decision making and the best strategies for protecting and enhancing the brain’s ability to navigate life’s uncertainties Contingency calculations—the ability to predict the outcomes of decisions and actions—are critical for survival and success. Our amazing brains continually process past and current experiences to enable us to make the most adaptive choices. But when the brain’s information systems are compromised—by such varying conditions as drug addiction, poverty, mental illness, or even privilege—we can lose the ability to arrive at informed decisions. In this engaging book, behavioral neuroscientist Kelly Lambert explores a variety of the modern factors that can lead to warped neural processing, or distorted realities she terms “brain bubbles.” Individuals who define success in terms of creature comforts and immediate gratification, for instance, may interact less with the physical and social world and thereby dull their ability to imagine varied contingency scenarios. The author underscores how continuous, meaningful, and well-grounded experiences are required if we are to make the best decisions throughout our lives.