Rare Event Simulation

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Rare Event Simulation using Monte Carlo Methods

Author : Gerardo Rubino
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470745410
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (454 download)

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Book Synopsis Rare Event Simulation using Monte Carlo Methods by : Gerardo Rubino

Download or read book Rare Event Simulation using Monte Carlo Methods written by Gerardo Rubino and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-03-18 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. Graduate students, researchers and practitioners who wish to learn and apply rare event simulation techniques will find this book beneficial.

Introduction to Rare Event Simulation

Author : James Bucklew
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475740786
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Rare Event Simulation by : James Bucklew

Download or read book Introduction to Rare Event Simulation written by James Bucklew and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a unified theory of rare event simulation and the variance reduction technique known as importance sampling from the point of view of the probabilistic theory of large deviations. It allows us to view a vast assortment of simulation problems from a unified single perspective.

Reaction Rate Theory and Rare Events

Author : Baron Peters
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444594701
Total Pages : 636 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)

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Book Synopsis Reaction Rate Theory and Rare Events by : Baron Peters

Download or read book Reaction Rate Theory and Rare Events written by Baron Peters and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2017-03-22 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reaction Rate Theory and Rare Events bridges the historical gap between these subjects because the increasingly multidisciplinary nature of scientific research often requires an understanding of both reaction rate theory and the theory of other rare events. The book discusses collision theory, transition state theory, RRKM theory, catalysis, diffusion limited kinetics, mean first passage times, Kramers theory, Grote-Hynes theory, transition path theory, non-adiabatic reactions, electron transfer, and topics from reaction network analysis. It is an essential reference for students, professors and scientists who use reaction rate theory or the theory of rare events. In addition, the book discusses transition state search algorithms, tunneling corrections, transmission coefficients, microkinetic models, kinetic Monte Carlo, transition path sampling, and importance sampling methods. The unified treatment in this book explains why chemical reactions and other rare events, while having many common theoretical foundations, often require very different computational modeling strategies. - Offers an integrated approach to all simulation theories and reaction network analysis, a unique approach not found elsewhere - Gives algorithms in pseudocode for using molecular simulation and computational chemistry methods in studies of rare events - Uses graphics and explicit examples to explain concepts - Includes problem sets developed and tested in a course range from pen-and-paper theoretical problems, to computational exercises

Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems

Author : Jerome Morio
Publisher : Woodhead Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0081001118
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (81 download)

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Book Synopsis Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems by : Jerome Morio

Download or read book Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems written by Jerome Morio and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2015-11-16 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rare event probability (10-4 and less) estimation has become a large area of research in the reliability engineering and system safety domains. A significant number of methods have been proposed to reduce the computation burden for the estimation of rare events from advanced sampling approaches to extreme value theory. However, it is often difficult in practice to determine which algorithm is the most adapted to a given problem.Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems: A Practical Approach provides a broad up-to-date view of the current available techniques to estimate rare event probabilities described with a unified notation, a mathematical pseudocode to ease their potential implementation and finally a large spectrum of simulation results on academic and realistic use cases. Provides a broad overview of the practical approach of rare event methods. Includes algorithms that are applied to aerospace benchmark test cases Offers insight into practical tuning issues

Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods

Author : Dirk P. Kroese
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118014952
Total Pages : 627 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods by : Dirk P. Kroese

Download or read book Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods written by Dirk P. Kroese and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-06-06 with total page 627 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive overview of Monte Carlo simulation that explores the latest topics, techniques, and real-world applications More and more of today’s numerical problems found in engineering and finance are solved through Monte Carlo methods. The heightened popularity of these methods and their continuing development makes it important for researchers to have a comprehensive understanding of the Monte Carlo approach. Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods provides the theory, algorithms, and applications that helps provide a thorough understanding of the emerging dynamics of this rapidly-growing field. The authors begin with a discussion of fundamentals such as how to generate random numbers on a computer. Subsequent chapters discuss key Monte Carlo topics and methods, including: Random variable and stochastic process generation Markov chain Monte Carlo, featuring key algorithms such as the Metropolis-Hastings method, the Gibbs sampler, and hit-and-run Discrete-event simulation Techniques for the statistical analysis of simulation data including the delta method, steady-state estimation, and kernel density estimation Variance reduction, including importance sampling, latin hypercube sampling, and conditional Monte Carlo Estimation of derivatives and sensitivity analysis Advanced topics including cross-entropy, rare events, kernel density estimation, quasi Monte Carlo, particle systems, and randomized optimization The presented theoretical concepts are illustrated with worked examples that use MATLAB®, a related Web site houses the MATLAB® code, allowing readers to work hands-on with the material and also features the author's own lecture notes on Monte Carlo methods. Detailed appendices provide background material on probability theory, stochastic processes, and mathematical statistics as well as the key optimization concepts and techniques that are relevant to Monte Carlo simulation. Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods is an excellent reference for applied statisticians and practitioners working in the fields of engineering and finance who use or would like to learn how to use Monte Carlo in their research. It is also a suitable supplement for courses on Monte Carlo methods and computational statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

The Cross-Entropy Method

Author : Reuven Y. Rubinstein
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475743211
Total Pages : 316 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis The Cross-Entropy Method by : Reuven Y. Rubinstein

Download or read book The Cross-Entropy Method written by Reuven Y. Rubinstein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rubinstein is the pioneer of the well-known score function and cross-entropy methods. Accessible to a broad audience of engineers, computer scientists, mathematicians, statisticians and in general anyone, theorist and practitioner, who is interested in smart simulation, fast optimization, learning algorithms, and image processing.

Mean Field Simulation for Monte Carlo Integration

Author : Pierre Del Moral
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1466504056
Total Pages : 628 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (665 download)

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Book Synopsis Mean Field Simulation for Monte Carlo Integration by : Pierre Del Moral

Download or read book Mean Field Simulation for Monte Carlo Integration written by Pierre Del Moral and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last three decades, there has been a dramatic increase in the use of interacting particle methods as a powerful tool in real-world applications of Monte Carlo simulation in computational physics, population biology, computer sciences, and statistical machine learning. Ideally suited to parallel and distributed computation, these advanced particle algorithms include nonlinear interacting jump diffusions; quantum, diffusion, and resampled Monte Carlo methods; Feynman-Kac particle models; genetic and evolutionary algorithms; sequential Monte Carlo methods; adaptive and interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo models; bootstrapping methods; ensemble Kalman filters; and interacting particle filters. Mean Field Simulation for Monte Carlo Integration presents the first comprehensive and modern mathematical treatment of mean field particle simulation models and interdisciplinary research topics, including interacting jumps and McKean-Vlasov processes, sequential Monte Carlo methodologies, genetic particle algorithms, genealogical tree-based algorithms, and quantum and diffusion Monte Carlo methods. Along with covering refined convergence analysis on nonlinear Markov chain models, the author discusses applications related to parameter estimation in hidden Markov chain models, stochastic optimization, nonlinear filtering and multiple target tracking, stochastic optimization, calibration and uncertainty propagations in numerical codes, rare event simulation, financial mathematics, and free energy and quasi-invariant measures arising in computational physics and population biology. This book shows how mean field particle simulation has revolutionized the field of Monte Carlo integration and stochastic algorithms. It will help theoretical probability researchers, applied statisticians, biologists, statistical physicists, and computer scientists work better across their own disciplinary boundaries.

Importance Sampling

Author : Rajan Srinivasan
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783540434207
Total Pages : 266 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (342 download)

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Book Synopsis Importance Sampling by : Rajan Srinivasan

Download or read book Importance Sampling written by Rajan Srinivasan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2002-06-01 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research monograph deals with fast stochastic simulation based on im portance sampling (IS) principles and some of its applications. It is in large part devoted to an adaptive form of IS that has proved to be effective in appli cations that involve the estimation of probabilities of rare events. Rare events are often encountered in scientific and engineering processes. Their charac terization is especially important as their occurrence can have catastrophic consequences of varying proportions. Examples range from fracture due to material fatigue in engineering structures to exceedance of dangerous levels during river water floods to false target declarations in radar systems. Fast simulation using IS is essentially a forced Monte Carlo procedure designed to hasten the occurrence of rare events. Development of this simu lation method of analysis of scientific phenomena is usually attributed to the mathematician von Neumann, and others. Since its inception, MC simula tion has found a wide range of employment, from statistical thermodynamics in disordered systems to the analysis and design of engineering structures characterized by high complexity. Indeed, whenever an engineering problem is analytically intractable (which is often the case) and a solution by nu merical techniques prohibitively expensive computationally, a last resort to determine the input-output characteristics of, or states within, a system is to carry out a simulation.

Stochastic Simulation Optimization

Author : Chun-hung Chen
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814282642
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (142 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Simulation Optimization by : Chun-hung Chen

Download or read book Stochastic Simulation Optimization written by Chun-hung Chen and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the advance of new computing technology, simulation is becoming very popular for designing large, complex and stochastic engineering systems, since closed-form analytical solutions generally do not exist for such problems. However, the added flexibility of simulation often creates models that are computationally intractable. Moreover, to obtain a sound statistical estimate at a specified level of confidence, a large number of simulation runs (or replications) is usually required for each design alternative. If the number of design alternatives is large, the total simulation cost can be very expensive. Stochastic Simulation Optimization addresses the pertinent efficiency issue via smart allocation of computing resource in the simulation experiments for optimization, and aims to provide academic researchers and industrial practitioners with a comprehensive coverage of OCBA approach for stochastic simulation optimization. Starting with an intuitive explanation of computing budget allocation and a discussion of its impact on optimization performance, a series of OCBA approaches developed for various problems are then presented, from the selection of the best design to optimization with multiple objectives. Finally, this book discusses the potential extension of OCBA notion to different applications such as data envelopment analysis, experiments of design and rare-event simulation.

Discrete-Event Simulation

Author : George S. Fishman
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475735529
Total Pages : 554 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Discrete-Event Simulation by : George S. Fishman

Download or read book Discrete-Event Simulation written by George S. Fishman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This is an excellent and well-written text on discrete event simulation with a focus on applications in Operations Research. There is substantial attention to programming, output analysis, pseudo-random number generation and modelling and these sections are quite thorough. Methods are provided for generating pseudo-random numbers (including combining such streams) and for generating random numbers from most standard statistical distributions." --ISI Short Book Reviews, 22:2, August 2002

Advances in Chemical Physics, Volume 123

Author : Ilya Prigogine
Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
ISBN 13 : 9780471214533
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (145 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Chemical Physics, Volume 123 by : Ilya Prigogine

Download or read book Advances in Chemical Physics, Volume 123 written by Ilya Prigogine and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 2002-07-22 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest edition of the leading forum in chemical physics Edited by Nobel Prize winner Ilya Prigogine and renowned authority Stuart A. Rice. The Advances in Chemical Physics series provides a forum for critical, authoritative evaluations in every area of the discipline. In a format that encourages the expression of individual points of view, experts in the field present comprehensive analyses of subjects of interest. This stand-alone, special topics volume reports recent advances in electron-transfer research, with significant, up-to-date chapters by internationally recognized researchers. Volume 123 collects innovative papers on "Transition Path Sampling," "Dynamics of Chemical Reactions and Chaos," "The Role of Self Similarity in Renormalization Group Theory," and several other related topics. Advances in Chemical Physics remains the premier venue for presentations of new findings in its field.

Modeling and Simulation of Discrete Event Systems

Author : Byoung Kyu Choi
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118732855
Total Pages : 427 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling and Simulation of Discrete Event Systems by : Byoung Kyu Choi

Download or read book Modeling and Simulation of Discrete Event Systems written by Byoung Kyu Choi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-08-07 with total page 427 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Computer modeling and simulation (M&S) allows engineers to study and analyze complex systems. Discrete-event system (DES)-M&S is used in modern management, industrial engineering, computer science, and the military. As computer speeds and memory capacity increase, so DES-M&S tools become more powerful and more widely used in solving real-life problems. Based on over 20 years of evolution within a classroom environment, as well as on decades-long experience in developing simulation-based solutions for high-tech industries, Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is the only book on DES-M&S in which all the major DES modeling formalisms – activity-based, process-oriented, state-based, and event-based – are covered in a unified manner: A well-defined procedure for building a formal model in the form of event graph, ACD, or state graph Diverse types of modeling templates and examples that can be used as building blocks for a complex, real-life model A systematic, easy-to-follow procedure combined with sample C# codes for developing simulators in various modeling formalisms Simple tutorials as well as sample model files for using popular off-the-shelf simulators such as SIGMA®, ACE®, and Arena® Up-to-date research results as well as research issues and directions in DES-M&S Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is an ideal textbook for undergraduate and graduate students of simulation/industrial engineering and computer science, as well as for simulation practitioners and researchers.

Handbook of Materials Modeling

Author : Sidney Yip
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402032862
Total Pages : 2903 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Materials Modeling by : Sidney Yip

Download or read book Handbook of Materials Modeling written by Sidney Yip and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-11-17 with total page 2903 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first reference of its kind in the rapidly emerging field of computational approachs to materials research, this is a compendium of perspective-providing and topical articles written to inform students and non-specialists of the current status and capabilities of modelling and simulation. From the standpoint of methodology, the development follows a multiscale approach with emphasis on electronic-structure, atomistic, and mesoscale methods, as well as mathematical analysis and rate processes. Basic models are treated across traditional disciplines, not only in the discussion of methods but also in chapters on crystal defects, microstructure, fluids, polymers and soft matter. Written by authors who are actively participating in the current development, this collection of 150 articles has the breadth and depth to be a major contributor toward defining the field of computational materials. In addition, there are 40 commentaries by highly respected researchers, presenting various views that should interest the future generations of the community. Subject Editors: Martin Bazant, MIT; Bruce Boghosian, Tufts University; Richard Catlow, Royal Institution; Long-Qing Chen, Pennsylvania State University; William Curtin, Brown University; Tomas Diaz de la Rubia, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Nicolas Hadjiconstantinou, MIT; Mark F. Horstemeyer, Mississippi State University; Efthimios Kaxiras, Harvard University; L. Mahadevan, Harvard University; Dimitrios Maroudas, University of Massachusetts; Nicola Marzari, MIT; Horia Metiu, University of California Santa Barbara; Gregory C. Rutledge, MIT; David J. Srolovitz, Princeton University; Bernhardt L. Trout, MIT; Dieter Wolf, Argonne National Laboratory.

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309380979
Total Pages : 187 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El NiÃ±o, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation

Author : Kenneth Train
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521766559
Total Pages : 399 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (217 download)

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Book Synopsis Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation by : Kenneth Train

Download or read book Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation written by Kenneth Train and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-06 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

Modern Simulation and Modeling

Author : Reuven Y. Rubinstein
Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 392 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Modern Simulation and Modeling by : Reuven Y. Rubinstein

Download or read book Modern Simulation and Modeling written by Reuven Y. Rubinstein and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1998-03-09 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A step-by-step guide for today's modeling and simulation practices This new guide for modeling and simulation of discrete-event systems (DES) demonstrates why simulation is fast becoming the method of choice for the evaluation of system performance in science, engineering, and management. The book begins with the basics of conventional simulation, then proceeds to modern simulation-treating sensitivity analysis and optimization in a wide range of systems that exhibit complex interaction of discrete events. These include communications networks, flexible manufacturing systems, PERT (project evaluation and review techniques) networks, queueing systems, and more. Less focused on theory than on presenting a clear approach to practical applications, Modern Simulation and Modeling: * Emphasizes concepts rather than mathematical completeness * Integrates references and explanations of complex topics into the body of the text * Provides an innovative chapter on rare-event probability estimation * Describes the implementation of the score function (SF) method using the NSO simulation package * Features 40 illustrations and numerous algorithms * Offers extensive, end-of-chapter exercise sets * Includes chapter bibliographies for further reading Modern Simulation and Modeling is an essential text for graduate students of DES and stochastic processes and for undergraduate students in simulation. It is also an excellent reference for professionals in statistics and probability, mathematics, and management science.

Stochastic Simulation: Algorithms and Analysis

Author : Søren Asmussen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387690336
Total Pages : 490 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (876 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Simulation: Algorithms and Analysis by : Søren Asmussen

Download or read book Stochastic Simulation: Algorithms and Analysis written by Søren Asmussen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-07-14 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sampling-based computational methods have become a fundamental part of the numerical toolset of practitioners and researchers across an enormous number of different applied domains and academic disciplines. This book provides a broad treatment of such sampling-based methods, as well as accompanying mathematical analysis of the convergence properties of the methods discussed. The reach of the ideas is illustrated by discussing a wide range of applications and the models that have found wide usage. The first half of the book focuses on general methods; the second half discusses model-specific algorithms. Exercises and illustrations are included.