Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

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Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 1324004789
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by : John Kay

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Radical Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : Bridge Street Press
ISBN 13 : 9780349143996
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (439 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty by : Mervyn King

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty written by Mervyn King and published by Bridge Street Press. This book was released on 2021-09-02 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Obliquity

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Author :
Publisher : Profile Books
ISBN 13 : 1847651852
Total Pages : 297 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (476 download)

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Book Synopsis Obliquity by : John Kay

Download or read book Obliquity written by John Kay and published by Profile Books. This book was released on 2011-02-03 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you want to go in one direction, the best route may involve going in another. This is the concept of 'obliquity': paradoxical as it sounds, many goals are more likely to be achieved when pursued indirectly. The richest men and women are not the most materialistic; the happiest people are not necessarily those who focus on happiness, and the most profitable companies are not always the most profit-oriented as the recent financial crisis showed us. Whether overcoming geographical obstacles, winning decisive battles or meeting sales targets, history shows that oblique approaches are the most successful, especially in difficult terrain. John Kay applies his provocative, universal theory to everything from international business to town planning and from football to managing forest fire.

Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 052151732X
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (215 download)

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Book Synopsis Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty by : Itzhak Gilboa

Download or read book Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Radical Uncertainty

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Author :
Publisher : National Geographic Books
ISBN 13 : 1324004770
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty by : John Kay

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty written by John Kay and published by National Geographic Books. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy

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Author :
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 0393247031
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (932 download)

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Book Synopsis The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy by : Mervyn King

Download or read book The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy written by Mervyn King and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2016-03-21 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Mervyn King may well have written the most important book to come out of the financial crisis. Agree or disagree, King’s visionary ideas deserve the attention of everyone from economics students to heads of state.” —Lawrence H. Summers Something is wrong with our banking system. We all sense that, but Mervyn King knows it firsthand; his ten years at the helm of the Bank of England, including at the height of the financial crisis, revealed profound truths about the mechanisms of our capitalist society. In The End of Alchemy he offers us an essential work about the history and future of money and banking, the keys to modern finance. The Industrial Revolution built the foundation of our modern capitalist age. Yet the flowering of technological innovations during that dynamic period relied on the widespread adoption of two much older ideas: the creation of paper money and the invention of banks that issued credit. We take these systems for granted today, yet at their core both ideas were revolutionary and almost magical. Common paper became as precious as gold, and risky long-term loans were transformed into safe short-term bank deposits. As King argues, this is financial alchemy—the creation of extraordinary financial powers that defy reality and common sense. Faith in these powers has led to huge benefits; the liquidity they create has fueled economic growth for two centuries now. However, they have also produced an unending string of economic disasters, from hyperinflations to banking collapses to the recent global recession and current stagnation. How do we reconcile the potent strengths of these ideas with their inherent weaknesses? King draws on his unique experience to present fresh interpretations of these economic forces and to point the way forward for the global economy. His bold solutions cut through current overstuffed and needlessly complex legislation to provide a clear path to durable prosperity and the end of overreliance on the alchemy of our financial ancestors.

How We Learn

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Author :
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0525559906
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (255 download)

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Book Synopsis How We Learn by : Stanislas Dehaene

Download or read book How We Learn written by Stanislas Dehaene and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2021-02-02 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “There are words that are so familiar they obscure rather than illuminate the thing they mean, and ‘learning’ is such a word. It seems so ordinary, everyone does it. Actually it’s more of a black box, which Dehaene cracks open to reveal the awesome secrets within.”--The New York Times Book Review An illuminating dive into the latest science on our brain's remarkable learning abilities and the potential of the machines we program to imitate them The human brain is an extraordinary learning machine. Its ability to reprogram itself is unparalleled, and it remains the best source of inspiration for recent developments in artificial intelligence. But how do we learn? What innate biological foundations underlie our ability to acquire new information, and what principles modulate their efficiency? In How We Learn, Stanislas Dehaene finds the boundary of computer science, neurobiology, and cognitive psychology to explain how learning really works and how to make the best use of the brain’s learning algorithms in our schools and universities, as well as in everyday life and at any age.

Beyond Uncertainty

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108608043
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (86 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond Uncertainty by : Katie Steele

Download or read book Beyond Uncertainty written by Katie Steele and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-09-09 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main aim of this Element is to introduce the topic of limited awareness, and changes in awareness, to those interested in the philosophy of decision-making and uncertain reasoning. While it has long been of interest to economists and computer scientists, this topic has only recently been subject to philosophical investigation. Indeed, at first sight limited awareness seems to evade any systematic treatment: it is beyond the uncertainty that can be managed. On the one hand, an agent has no control over what contingencies she is and is not aware of at a given time, and any awareness growth takes her by surprise. On the other hand, agents apparently learn to identify the situations in which they are more and less likely to experience limited awareness and subsequent awareness growth. How can these two sides be reconciled? That is the puzzle we confront in this Element.

Other People's Money

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Publisher : PublicAffairs
ISBN 13 : 1610396049
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Other People's Money by : John Kay

Download or read book Other People's Money written by John Kay and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2015-09-22 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The finance sector of Western economies is too large and attracts too many of the smartest college graduates. Financialization over the past three decades has created a structure that lacks resilience and supports absurd volumes of trading. The finance sector devotes too little attention to the search for new investment opportunities and the stewardship of existing ones, and far too much to secondary-market dealing in existing assets. Regulation has contributed more to the problems than the solutions. Why? What is finance for? John Kay, with wide practical and academic experience in the world of finance, understands the operation of the financial sector better than most. He believes in good banks and effective asset managers, but good banks and effective asset managers are not what he sees. In a dazzling and revelatory tour of the financial world as it has emerged from the wreckage of the 2008 crisis, Kay does not flinch in his criticism: we do need some of the things that Citigroup and Goldman Sachs do, but we do not need Citigroup and Goldman to do them. And many of the things done by Citigroup and Goldman do not need to be done at all. The finance sector needs to be reminded of its primary purpose: to manage other people's money for the benefit of businesses and households. It is an aberration when the some of the finest mathematical and scientific minds are tasked with devising algorithms for the sole purpose of exploiting the weakness of other algorithms for computerized trading in securities. To travel further down that road leads to ruin. A Financial Times Book of the Year, 2015 An Economist Best Book of the Year, 2015 A Bloomberg Best Book of the Year, 2015

Naturalistic Decision Making

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Author :
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1317779592
Total Pages : 442 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (177 download)

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Book Synopsis Naturalistic Decision Making by : Caroline E. Zsambok

Download or read book Naturalistic Decision Making written by Caroline E. Zsambok and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2014-01-02 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you aren't using the term naturalistic decision making, or NDM, you soon will be. Even as a very young field, NDM has already had far-reaching applications in areas as diverse as management, aviation, health care, nuclear power, military command and control, corporate teamwork, and manufacturing. Put simply, NDM is the way people use their experience to make decisions in the context of a job or task. Of particular interest to NDM researchers are the effects of high-stake consequences, shifting goals, incomplete information, time pressure, uncertainty, and other conditions that are present in most of today's work places and that add to the complexity of decision making. Applications of NDM research findings target decision aids and training that help people in their decision-making processes. This book reports the findings of top NDM researchers, as well as many of their current applications. In addition, the book offers a historical perspective on the emergence of this new paradigm, describes recent theoretical and methodological advancements, and points to future developments. It was written for people interested in decision making research and applications relative to a diverse array of work settings and products such as human-computer interfaces, decision support systems, individual and team training, product designs, and organizational development and planning.

Seeing What Others Don't

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Publisher : PublicAffairs
ISBN 13 : 1610392752
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Seeing What Others Don't by : Gary Klein

Download or read book Seeing What Others Don't written by Gary Klein and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2013-06-25 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A renowned cognitive psychologist reveals the science behind achieving breakthrough discoveries, allowing readers to confidently solve problems, improve decision-making, and achieve success. Insights-like Darwin's understanding of the way evolution actually works, and Watson and Crick's breakthrough discoveries about the structure of DNA-can change the world. Yet we know very little about when, why, or how insights are formed-or what blocks them. In Seeing What Others Don't, Gary Klein unravels the mystery. Klein is a keen observer of people in their natural settings-scientists, businesspeople, firefighters, police officers, soldiers, family members, friends, himself-and uses a marvelous variety of stories to illuminate his research into what insights are and how they happen. What, for example, enabled Harry Markopolos to put the finger on Bernie Madoff? How did Dr. Michael Gottlieb make the connections between different patients that allowed him to publish the first announcement of the AIDS epidemic? How did Martin Chalfie come up with a million-dollar idea (and a Nobel Prize) for a natural flashlight that enabled researchers to look inside living organisms to watch biological processes in action? Klein also dissects impediments to insight, such as when organizations claim to value employee creativity and to encourage breakthroughs but in reality block disruptive ideas and prioritize avoidance of mistakes. Or when information technology systems are "dumb by design" and block potential discoveries. Both scientifically sophisticated and fun to read, Seeing What Others Don't shows that insight is not just a "eureka!" moment but a whole new way of understanding.

No Time for Spectators

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781939714213
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (142 download)

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Book Synopsis No Time for Spectators by : Martin Dempsey

Download or read book No Time for Spectators written by Martin Dempsey and published by . This book was released on 2020-05-12 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why are the best leaders the ones who are most adept at following? What should we expect of those who have the privilege of leading? And what may leaders expect of those who follow them? Drawing upon a military career spanning more than four decades, General Martin Dempsey, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, examines the limits of loyalty, the necessity of sensible skepticism, and the value of responsible rebelliousness, and explains why we actually should sweat the small stuff. No Time for Spectators takes readers behind the closed doors of the Situation Room, onto the battlefields of Iraq, and to the East German border at the height of the Cold War. It contends that relationships between leaders and followers--employers and employees, politicians and constituents, coaches and athletes, teachers and students--are most productive when based on certain key mutual expectations. The book begins from the premise that life is not a spectator sport. Especially not today, especially not at a time when issues are so complex, information is so pervasive, scrutiny is so intense, and the stakes are so high. No Time for Spectators may not be the answer to all of our problems, but it is a clarion call for those who are actually interested in solving them.

Seemed Like a Good Idea

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1009019112
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Seemed Like a Good Idea by : Mark Pauly

Download or read book Seemed Like a Good Idea written by Mark Pauly and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-07-28 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Consumers, public officials, and even managers of health care and insurance are unhappy about care quality, access, and costs. This book shows that is because efforts to do something about these problems often rely on hope or conjecture, not rigorous evidence of effectiveness. In this book, experts in the field separate the speculative from the proven with regard to how care is rendered, how patients can be in control, how providers should be paid, and how disparities can be reduced – and they also identify the issues for which evidence is currently missing. It provides an antidote to frustration and a clear-eyed guide for forward progress, helping health care and insurance innovators make better decisions on deciding whether to go ahead now based on current evidence, to seek and wait for additional evidence, or to move on to different ideas. It will be useful to practitioners in hospital systems, medical groups, and insurance organizations and can also be used in executive and MBA teaching.

Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 303148553X
Total Pages : 466 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (314 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making by : Richard J. Arend

Download or read book Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making written by Richard J. Arend and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024-01-03 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.

Building Resilient Organizations through Change, Chance, and Complexity

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Author :
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1000615170
Total Pages : 199 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (6 download)

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Book Synopsis Building Resilient Organizations through Change, Chance, and Complexity by : David Lindstedt

Download or read book Building Resilient Organizations through Change, Chance, and Complexity written by David Lindstedt and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-07-15 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A must-read in the wake of COVID-19, this book unpacks the nature of resilient organizations and how they prepare for unpredictable, complex, and profound change. Organizations that do not adapt and evolve die. To date, however, it has not been at all clear how to build a resilient organization. That puts us all in the unenviable position of trying to ready our organizations for an increasingly uncertain future without the proper guidance to do it. This book introduces 14 elements of resilience that consistently emerge in organizations that have thrived amid adversity and volatility. Resilience is not about determination, grit, cybersecurity, or teams of resilient individuals; resilience, it turns out, is often confused with robustness. Readers will discover how resilient organizations build and employ a distinctive combination of crews, capital, culture, and leadership—and, crucially—how to adapt these combinations for their own organization. Senior business leaders, consultants, entrepreneurs, students, and professionals will appreciate this book’s practical, approachable, and engaging guidance, including insights by leaders from Health Care for the Homeless, The Ohio State University, NBCUniversal, retail stores, and more.

Within Reason

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Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226822915
Total Pages : 285 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (268 download)

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Book Synopsis Within Reason by : Sandro Galea

Download or read book Within Reason written by Sandro Galea and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2023 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The COVID-19 response was a collision of politics and public health-a volatile combination that produced predictably bad results. As public-health expertise became a tool for serving political ends, it did more than just prolong a crisis; it left the public-health establishment, like the country, mired in polarization. It was, Sandro Galea argues, a crisis of liberalism: a retreat from the spirit of enlightenment and its reliance on evidence-informed reason above all else. In Within Reason, Galea offers a critical appraisal of public health's capture by the lesser angels of today's society. Across 50 spirited essays, he shows that this is a story much larger than COVID or Trump. The diminishing of US public health is symptomatic of the same insidious social trends that were accelerated under COVID and now pervade the administration of public good everywhere: an intolerance for incrementalism, an intolerance of tradeoffs, an expectation of absolutism and moral purity. Galea challenges this recent intellectual drift while articulating how it has undermined much of the progress of earlier eras. With his trademark incision, he makes a case for a return to critical, unbeholden inquiry as a guiding principle for the future we want-and will have to work in order to achieve"--

Sustainable Finance in Europe

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031536967
Total Pages : 732 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Sustainable Finance in Europe by : Danny Busch

Download or read book Sustainable Finance in Europe written by Danny Busch and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: