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Process Based Evaluation Of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies On Ensemble Forecasts Of Heavy Rainfall Events
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Book Synopsis The Global Monsoon System by : Chih-Pei Chang
Download or read book The Global Monsoon System written by Chih-Pei Chang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 609 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a current review of the science of monsoon research and forecasting. The contents are based on the invited reviews presented at the World Meteorological Organization''s Fourth International Workshop on Monsoons in late 2008, with subsequent manuscripts revised from 2009 to early 2010. The book builds on the concept that the monsoons in various parts of the globe can be viewed as components of an integrated global monsoon system, while emphasizing that significant region-specific characteristics are present in individual monsoon regions. The topics covered include all major monsoon regions and time scales (mesoscale, synoptic, intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and climate change). It is intended to provide an updated comprehensive review of the current status of knowledge, modeling capability, and future directions in the research of monsoon systems around the world.
Book Synopsis Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts by : Stéphane Vannitsem
Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. - Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place - Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts - Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner
Book Synopsis East Asian Monsoon by : Chih-Pei Chang
Download or read book East Asian Monsoon written by Chih-Pei Chang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2004 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The East Asian summer monsoon has complex space and time structures that are distinct from the South Asian summer monsoon. It covers both subtropics and midlatitudes and its rainfall tends to be concentrated in rain belts that stretch for many thousands of kilometers and affect China, Japan, Korea, and the surrounding areas. The circulation of the East Asian winter monsoon encompasses a large meridional domain with cold air outbreaks emanating from the Siberian high and penetrates deeply into the equatorial Maritime Continent region, where the center of maximum rainfall has long been recognized as a major planetary scale heat source that provides a significant amount of energy which drives the global circulation during boreal winter. The East Asian summer monsoon is also closely linked with the West Pacific summer monsoon. Both are part of the global climate system and are affected by El Nino?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and surface temperature variations in the western Pacific and surrounding oceans, the tropospheric biennial oscillation, and the South Asian summer monsoon. In addition, typhoons in the western North Pacific are most active during the East Asian summer monsoon. They may be considered as a component of the East Asian summer monsoon as they contribute substantial amounts of rainfall and have major impacts on the region. Because of its impacts on nearly one-third of the worldOCOs population and on the global climate system (including effects on the climate change), the study of the East Asian monsoon has received increased attention both in East Asian countries and in the United States. This book presents reviews of recent research on the subject."
Book Synopsis Hailstorms of the Central High Plains: The National Hail Research Experiment by : Charles A. Knight
Download or read book Hailstorms of the Central High Plains: The National Hail Research Experiment written by Charles A. Knight and published by University Press of Colorado. This book was released on 1982 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction by : Andrew Robertson
Download or read book Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Book Synopsis The National Meteorological Center by : National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
Download or read book The National Meteorological Center written by National Meteorological Center (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309388805 Total Pages :351 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (93 download)
Book Synopsis Next Generation Earth System Prediction by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Book Synopsis Fundamentals of Numerical Weather Prediction by : Jean Coiffier
Download or read book Fundamentals of Numerical Weather Prediction written by Jean Coiffier and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Numerical models have become essential tools in environmental science, particularly in weather forecasting and climate prediction. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the techniques used in these fields, with emphasis on the design of the most recent numerical models of the atmosphere. It presents a short history of numerical weather prediction and its evolution, before describing the various model equations and how to solve them numerically. It outlines the main elements of a meteorological forecast suite, and the theory is illustrated throughout with practical examples of operational models and parameterizations of physical processes. This book is founded on the author's many years of experience, as a scientist at Météo-France and teaching university-level courses. It is a practical and accessible textbook for graduate courses and a handy resource for researchers and professionals in atmospheric physics, meteorology and climatology, as well as the related disciplines of fluid dynamics, hydrology and oceanography.
Book Synopsis Forecast Verification by : Ian T. Jolliffe
Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
Book Synopsis Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting by : Qingyun Duan
Download or read book Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting written by Qingyun Duan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hydrometeorological prediction involves the forecasting of the state and variation of hydrometeorological elements -- including precipitation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater, etc.-- at different space and time scales. Such forecasts form an important scientific basis for informing public of natural hazards such as cyclones, heat waves, frosts, droughts and floods. Traditionally, and at most currently operational centers, hydrometeorological forecasts are deterministic, “single-valued” outlooks: i.e., the weather and hydrological models provide a single best guess of the magnitude and timing of the impending events. These forecasts suffer the obvious drawback of lacking uncertainty information that would help decision-makers assess the risks of forecast use. Recently, hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approaches have begun to be developed and used by operational collection of hydrometeorological services. In contrast to deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are a multiple forecasts of the same events. The ensemble forecasts are generated by perturbing uncertain factors such as model forcings, initial conditions, and/or model physics. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they not only offer an estimate of the most probable future state of the hydrometeorological system, but also quantify the predictive uncertainty of a catastrophic hydrometeorological event occurring. The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), initiated in 2004, has signaled a new era of collaboration toward the development of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. By bringing meteorologists, hydrologists and hydrometeorological forecast users together, HEPEX aims to improve operational hydrometeorological forecast approaches to a standard that can be used with confidence by emergencies and water resources managers. HEPEX advocates a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework that consists of several basic building blocks. These components include:(a) an approach (typically statistical) for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs and generating statistically consistent space/time meteorological inputs for hydrological applications; (b) a land data assimilation approach for leveraging observation to reduce uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the hydrological system; (c) approaches that address uncertainty in model parameters (also called ‘calibration’); (d) a hydrologic model or other approach for converting meteorological inputs into hydrological outputs; and finally (e) approaches for characterizing hydrological model output uncertainty. Also integral to HEPS is a verification system that can be used to evaluate the performance of all of its components. HEPS frameworks are being increasingly adopted by operational hydrometeorological agencies around the world to support risk management related to flash flooding, river and coastal flooding, drought, and water management. Real benefits of ensemble forecasts have been demonstrated in water emergence management decision making, optimization of reservoir operation, and other applications.
Book Synopsis Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by : National Research Council
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Book Synopsis Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards by : Jonathan Rougier
Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards written by Jonathan Rougier and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-21 with total page 587 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.
Book Synopsis Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling by : Roger A. Pielke
Download or read book Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling written by Roger A. Pielke and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 625 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To effectively utilize mesoscale dynamical simulations of the atmosphere, it is necessary to have an understanding the basic physical and mathematical foundations of the models and to have an appreciation of how a particular atmospheric system works. Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling provides such an overview of mesoscale numerical modeling. Starting with fundamental concepts, this text can be used to evaluate the scientific basis of any simulation model that has been or will be developed. Basic material is provided for the beginner as well as more in-depth treatment for the specialist. This text is useful to both the practitioner and the researcher of the mesoscale phenomena.
Book Synopsis Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk by : Alberto Troccoli
Download or read book Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-29 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.
Author :Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Publisher :Cambridge University Press ISBN 13 :1107025060 Total Pages :593 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (7 download)
Book Synopsis Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation by : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Download or read book Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-05-28 with total page 593 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Book Synopsis Marine Fog: Challenges and Advancements in Observations, Modeling, and Forecasting by : Darko Koračin
Download or read book Marine Fog: Challenges and Advancements in Observations, Modeling, and Forecasting written by Darko Koračin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-01-28 with total page 540 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the history of marine fog research and applications, and discusses the physical processes leading to fog's formation, evolution, and dissipation. A special emphasis is on the challenges and advancements of fog observation and modeling as well as on efforts toward operational fog forecasting and linkages and feedbacks between marine fog and the environment.
Book Synopsis Modeling of Atmospheric Chemistry by : Guy P. Brasseur
Download or read book Modeling of Atmospheric Chemistry written by Guy P. Brasseur and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-06-19 with total page 631 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mathematical modeling of atmospheric composition is a formidable scientific and computational challenge. This comprehensive presentation of the modeling methods used in atmospheric chemistry focuses on both theory and practice, from the fundamental principles behind models, through to their applications in interpreting observations. An encyclopaedic coverage of methods used in atmospheric modeling, including their advantages and disadvantages, makes this a one-stop resource with a large scope. Particular emphasis is given to the mathematical formulation of chemical, radiative, and aerosol processes; advection and turbulent transport; emission and deposition processes; as well as major chapters on model evaluation and inverse modeling. The modeling of atmospheric chemistry is an intrinsically interdisciplinary endeavour, bringing together meteorology, radiative transfer, physical chemistry and biogeochemistry, making the book of value to a broad readership. Introductory chapters and a review of the relevant mathematics make this book instantly accessible to graduate students and researchers in the atmospheric sciences.
