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Probably Overthinking It
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Book Synopsis Probably Overthinking It by : Allen B. Downey
Download or read book Probably Overthinking It written by Allen B. Downey and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2023-12-06 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An essential guide to the ways data can improve decision making. Statistics are everywhere: in news reports, at the doctor’s office, and in every sort of forecast, from the stock market to the weather. Blogger, teacher, and computer scientist Allen B. Downey knows well that people have an innate ability both to understand statistics and to be fooled by them. As he makes clear in this accessible introduction to statistical thinking, the stakes are big. Simple misunderstandings have led to incorrect medical prognoses, underestimated the likelihood of large earthquakes, hindered social justice efforts, and resulted in dubious policy decisions. There are right and wrong ways to look at numbers, and Downey will help you see which are which. Probably Overthinking It uses real data to delve into real examples with real consequences, drawing on cases from health campaigns, political movements, chess rankings, and more. He lays out common pitfalls—like the base rate fallacy, length-biased sampling, and Simpson’s paradox—and shines a light on what we learn when we interpret data correctly, and what goes wrong when we don’t. Using data visualizations instead of equations, he builds understanding from the basics to help you recognize errors, whether in your own thinking or in media reports. Even if you have never studied statistics—or if you have and forgot everything you learned—this book will offer new insight into the methods and measurements that help us understand the world.
Download or read book Think DSP written by Allen B. Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2016-07-12 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you understand basic mathematics and know how to program with Python, you’re ready to dive into signal processing. While most resources start with theory to teach this complex subject, this practical book introduces techniques by showing you how they’re applied in the real world. In the first chapter alone, you’ll be able to decompose a sound into its harmonics, modify the harmonics, and generate new sounds. Author Allen Downey explains techniques such as spectral decomposition, filtering, convolution, and the Fast Fourier Transform. This book also provides exercises and code examples to help you understand the material. You’ll explore: Periodic signals and their spectrums Harmonic structure of simple waveforms Chirps and other sounds whose spectrum changes over time Noise signals and natural sources of noise The autocorrelation function for estimating pitch The discrete cosine transform (DCT) for compression The Fast Fourier Transform for spectral analysis Relating operations in time to filters in the frequency domain Linear time-invariant (LTI) system theory Amplitude modulation (AM) used in radio Other books in this series include Think Stats and Think Bayes, also by Allen Downey.
Download or read book Think Stats written by Allen B. Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2014-10-16 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you know how to program, you have the skills to turn data into knowledge, using tools of probability and statistics. This concise introduction shows you how to perform statistical analysis computationally, rather than mathematically, with programs written in Python. By working with a single case study throughout this thoroughly revised book, you’ll learn the entire process of exploratory data analysis—from collecting data and generating statistics to identifying patterns and testing hypotheses. You’ll explore distributions, rules of probability, visualization, and many other tools and concepts. New chapters on regression, time series analysis, survival analysis, and analytic methods will enrich your discoveries. Develop an understanding of probability and statistics by writing and testing code Run experiments to test statistical behavior, such as generating samples from several distributions Use simulations to understand concepts that are hard to grasp mathematically Import data from most sources with Python, rather than rely on data that’s cleaned and formatted for statistics tools Use statistical inference to answer questions about real-world data
Download or read book Think Bayes written by Allen B. Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you know how to program, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical formulas, using discrete probability distributions rather than continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer and you'll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but there aren't many resources available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen B. Downey, this book's computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and Bayesian hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, dice, and a bowl of cookies Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems
Download or read book Think Stats written by Allen B. Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you know how to program, you have the skills to turn data into knowledge using the tools of probability and statistics. This concise introduction shows you how to perform statistical analysis computationally, rather than mathematically, with programs written in Python. You'll work with a case study throughout the book to help you learn the entire data analysis process—from collecting data and generating statistics to identifying patterns and testing hypotheses. Along the way, you'll become familiar with distributions, the rules of probability, visualization, and many other tools and concepts. Develop your understanding of probability and statistics by writing and testing code Run experiments to test statistical behavior, such as generating samples from several distributions Use simulations to understand concepts that are hard to grasp mathematically Learn topics not usually covered in an introductory course, such as Bayesian estimation Import data from almost any source using Python, rather than be limited to data that has been cleaned and formatted for statistics tools Use statistical inference to answer questions about real-world data
Book Synopsis Modeling and Simulation in Python by : Allen B. Downey
Download or read book Modeling and Simulation in Python written by Allen B. Downey and published by No Starch Press. This book was released on 2023-05-30 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling and Simulation in Python teaches readers how to analyze real-world scenarios using the Python programming language, requiring no more than a background in high school math. Modeling and Simulation in Python is a thorough but easy-to-follow introduction to physical modeling—that is, the art of describing and simulating real-world systems. Readers are guided through modeling things like world population growth, infectious disease, bungee jumping, baseball flight trajectories, celestial mechanics, and more while simultaneously developing a strong understanding of fundamental programming concepts like loops, vectors, and functions. Clear and concise, with a focus on learning by doing, the author spares the reader abstract, theoretical complexities and gets right to hands-on examples that show how to produce useful models and simulations.
Book Synopsis Think Data Structures by : Allen B. Downey
Download or read book Think Data Structures written by Allen B. Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2017-07-07 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you’re a student studying computer science or a software developer preparing for technical interviews, this practical book will help you learn and review some of the most important ideas in software engineering—data structures and algorithms—in a way that’s clearer, more concise, and more engaging than other materials. By emphasizing practical knowledge and skills over theory, author Allen Downey shows you how to use data structures to implement efficient algorithms, and then analyze and measure their performance. You’ll explore the important classes in the Java collections framework (JCF), how they’re implemented, and how they’re expected to perform. Each chapter presents hands-on exercises supported by test code online. Use data structures such as lists and maps, and understand how they work Build an application that reads Wikipedia pages, parses the contents, and navigates the resulting data tree Analyze code to predict how fast it will run and how much memory it will require Write classes that implement the Map interface, using a hash table and binary search tree Build a simple web search engine with a crawler, an indexer that stores web page contents, and a retriever that returns user query results Other books by Allen Downey include Think Java, Think Python, Think Stats, and Think Bayes.
Book Synopsis Think Complexity by : Allen B. Downey
Download or read book Think Complexity written by Allen B. Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2012-02-23 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expand your Python skills by working with data structures and algorithms in a refreshing context—through an eye-opening exploration of complexity science. Whether you’re an intermediate-level Python programmer or a student of computational modeling, you’ll delve into examples of complex systems through a series of exercises, case studies, and easy-to-understand explanations. You’ll work with graphs, algorithm analysis, scale-free networks, and cellular automata, using advanced features that make Python such a powerful language. Ideal as a text for courses on Python programming and algorithms, Think Complexity will also help self-learners gain valuable experience with topics and ideas they might not encounter otherwise. Work with NumPy arrays and SciPy methods, basic signal processing and Fast Fourier Transform, and hash tables Study abstract models of complex physical systems, including power laws, fractals and pink noise, and Turing machines Get starter code and solutions to help you re-implement and extend original experiments in complexity Explore the philosophy of science, including the nature of scientific laws, theory choice, realism and instrumentalism, and other topics Examine case studies of complex systems submitted by students and readers
Download or read book Think Java written by Allen B. Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2016-05-06 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currently used at many colleges, universities, and high schools, this hands-on introduction to computer science is ideal for people with little or no programming experience. The goal of this concise book is not just to teach you Java, but to help you think like a computer scientist. You’ll learn how to program—a useful skill by itself—but you’ll also discover how to use programming as a means to an end. Authors Allen Downey and Chris Mayfield start with the most basic concepts and gradually move into topics that are more complex, such as recursion and object-oriented programming. Each brief chapter covers the material for one week of a college course and includes exercises to help you practice what you’ve learned. Learn one concept at a time: tackle complex topics in a series of small steps with examples Understand how to formulate problems, think creatively about solutions, and write programs clearly and accurately Determine which development techniques work best for you, and practice the important skill of debugging Learn relationships among input and output, decisions and loops, classes and methods, strings and arrays Work on exercises involving word games, graphics, puzzles, and playing cards
Download or read book Think Bayes written by Allen Downey and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2013-09-12 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you know how to program with Python, and know a little about probability, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. This book shows you how to use Python code instead of math to help you learn Bayesian fundamentals. Once you get the math out of the way, you'll be able to apply these techniques to real-world problems.
Book Synopsis Statistical Rethinking by : Richard McElreath
Download or read book Statistical Rethinking written by Richard McElreath and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-01-03 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.
Book Synopsis Bernoulli's Fallacy by : Aubrey Clayton
Download or read book Bernoulli's Fallacy written by Aubrey Clayton and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 641 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach—that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information—in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.
Book Synopsis Physical Modeling in MATLAB by : Allen Downey
Download or read book Physical Modeling in MATLAB written by Allen Downey and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2008-01-01 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introductory textbook for people who have not programmed before. Covers basic MATLAB programming with emphasis on modeling and simulation of physical systems.
Book Synopsis The Creator’s Game by : Allan Downey
Download or read book The Creator’s Game written by Allan Downey and published by UBC Press. This book was released on 2018-02-15 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A gift from the Creator – that is where it all began. The game of lacrosse has been a central element of many Indigenous cultures for centuries, but once non-Indigenous players entered the sport, it became a site of appropriation – then reclamation – of Indigenous identities. Focusing on the history of lacrosse in Indigenous communities from the 1860s to the 1990s, The Creator’s Game explores Indigenous-non-Indigenous relations and Indigenous identity formation. While the game was being stripped of its cultural and ceremonial significance and being appropriated to construct a new identity for the nation-state of Canada, it was also being used by Indigenous peoples for multiple ends: to resist residential school experiences; initiate pan-Indigenous political mobilization; and articulate Indigenous sovereignty and nationhood on the world stage. The multilayered story of lacrosse serves as a potent illustration of how identity and nationhood are formed and reformed. Engaging and innovative, The Creator’s Game provides a unique view of Indigenous self-determination in the face of settler-colonialism.
Book Synopsis HT THINK LIKE A COMPUTER SCIEN by : Jeffrey Elkner
Download or read book HT THINK LIKE A COMPUTER SCIEN written by Jeffrey Elkner and published by Samurai Media Limited. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goal of this book is to teach you to think like a computer scientist. This way of thinking combines some of the best features of mathematics, engineering, and natural science. Like mathematicians, computer scientists use formal languages to denote ideas (specifically computations). Like engineers, they design things, assembling components into systems and evaluating tradeoffs among alternatives. Like scientists, they observe the behavior of complex systems, form hypotheses, and test predictions. The single most important skill for a computer scientist is problem solving. Problem solving means the ability to formulate problems, think creatively about solutions, and express a solution clearly and accurately. As it turns out, the process of learning to program is an excellent opportunity to practice problem-solving skills. That's why this chapter is called, The way of the program. On one level, you will be learning to program, a useful skill by itself. On another level, you will use programming as a means to an end. As we go along, that end will become clearer.
Download or read book Don't Overthink It written by Anne Bogel and published by Baker Books. This book was released on 2020-03-03 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Wall Street Journal bestseller! *** We've all been there: stuck in a cycle of what-ifs, plagued by indecision, paralyzed by the fear of getting it wrong. Nobody wants to live a life of constant overthinking, but it doesn't feel like something we can choose to stop doing. It feels like something we're wired to do, something we just can't escape. But is it? Anne Bogel's answer is no. Not only can you overcome negative thought patterns that are repetitive, unhealthy, and unhelpful, you can replace them with positive thought patterns that will bring more peace, joy, and love into your life. In Don't Overthink It, you'll find actionable strategies that can make an immediate and lasting difference in how you deal with questions both small--Should I buy these flowers?--and large--What am I doing with my life? More than a book about making good decisions, Don't Overthink It offers you a framework for making choices you'll be comfortable with, using an appropriate amount of energy, freeing you to focus on all the other stuff that matters in life.
