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Probability Theory With Simulations
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Book Synopsis Probability and Simulation by : Giray Ökten
Download or read book Probability and Simulation written by Giray Ökten and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-10-15 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This undergraduate textbook presents an inquiry-based learning course in stochastic models and computing designed to serve as a first course in probability. Its modular structure complements a traditional lecture format, introducing new topics chapter by chapter with accompanying projects for group collaboration. The text addresses probability axioms leading to Bayes’ theorem, discrete and continuous random variables, Markov chains, and Brownian motion, as well as applications including randomized algorithms, randomized surveys, Benford’s law, and Monte Carlo methods. Adopting a unique application-driven approach to better study probability in action, the book emphasizes data, simulation, and games to strengthen reader insight and intuition while proving theorems. Additionally, the text incorporates codes and exercises in the Julia programming language to further promote a hands-on focus in modelling. Students should have prior knowledge of single variable calculus. Giray Ökten received his PhD from Claremont Graduate University. He has held academic positions at University of Alaska Fairbanks, Ball State University, and Florida State University. He received a Fulbright U.S. Scholar award in 2015. He is the author of an open access textbook in numerical analysis, First Semester in Numerical Analysis with Julia, published by Florida State University Libraries, and a co-author of a children’s math book, The Mathematical Investigations of Dr. O and Arya, published by Tumblehome. His research interests include Monte Carlo methods and computational finance.
Book Synopsis Understanding Probability by : Henk Tijms
Download or read book Understanding Probability written by Henk Tijms and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-07-26 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this fully revised second edition of Understanding Probability, the reader can learn about the world of probability in an informal way. The author demystifies the law of large numbers, betting systems, random walks, the bootstrap, rare events, the central limit theorem, the Bayesian approach and more. This second edition has wider coverage, more explanations and examples and exercises, and a new chapter introducing Markov chains, making it a great choice for a first probability course. But its easy-going style makes it just as valuable if you want to learn about the subject on your own, and high school algebra is really all the mathematical background you need.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Probability by : David F. Anderson
Download or read book Introduction to Probability written by David F. Anderson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-11-02 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.
Book Synopsis Paradoxes in Probability Theory by : William Eckhardt
Download or read book Paradoxes in Probability Theory written by William Eckhardt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-09-26 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.
Book Synopsis Probability Theory and Statistical Inference by : Aris Spanos
Download or read book Probability Theory and Statistical Inference written by Aris Spanos and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-09-19 with total page 787 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This empirical research methods course enables informed implementation of statistical procedures, giving rise to trustworthy evidence.
Book Synopsis Theory of Games and Statistical Decisions by : David A. Blackwell
Download or read book Theory of Games and Statistical Decisions written by David A. Blackwell and published by Courier Corporation. This book was released on 2012-06-14 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evaluating statistical procedures through decision and game theory, as first proposed by Neyman and Pearson and extended by Wald, is the goal of this problem-oriented text in mathematical statistics. First-year graduate students in statistics and other students with a background in statistical theory and advanced calculus will find a rigorous, thorough presentation of statistical decision theory treated as a special case of game theory. The work of Borel, von Neumann, and Morgenstern in game theory, of prime importance to decision theory, is covered in its relevant aspects: reduction of games to normal forms, the minimax theorem, and the utility theorem. With this introduction, Blackwell and Professor Girshick look at: Values and Optimal Strategies in Games; General Structure of Statistical Games; Utility and Principles of Choice; Classes of Optimal Strategies; Fixed Sample-Size Games with Finite Ω and with Finite A; Sufficient Statistics and the Invariance Principle; Sequential Games; Bayes and Minimax Sequential Procedures; Estimation; and Comparison of Experiments. A few topics not directly applicable to statistics, such as perfect information theory, are also discussed. Prerequisites for full understanding of the procedures in this book include knowledge of elementary analysis, and some familiarity with matrices, determinants, and linear dependence. For purposes of formal development, only discrete distributions are used, though continuous distributions are employed as illustrations. The number and variety of problems presented will be welcomed by all students, computer experts, and others using statistics and game theory. This comprehensive and sophisticated introduction remains one of the strongest and most useful approaches to a field which today touches areas as diverse as gambling and particle physics.
Book Synopsis Probability and Games by : Bowen Kerins
Download or read book Probability and Games written by Bowen Kerins and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 2018-01-24 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Designed for precollege teachers by a collaborative of teachers, educators, and mathematicians, Probability and Games is based on a course offered in the Summer School Teacher Program at the Park City Mathematics Institute. This course leads participants through an introduction to probability and statistics, with particular focus on conditional probability, hypothesis testing, and the mathematics of election analysis. These ideas are tied together through low-threshold entry points including work with real and fake coin-flipping data, short games that lead to key concepts, and inroads to connecting the topics to number theory and algebra. But this book isn't a “course” in the traditional sense. It consists of a carefully sequenced collection of problem sets designed to develop several interconnected mathematical themes. These materials provide participants with the opportunity for authentic mathematical discovery—participants build mathematical structures by investigating patterns, use reasoning to test and formalize their ideas, offer and negotiate mathematical definitions, and apply their theories and mathematical machinery to solve problems. Probability and Games is a volume of the book series “IAS/PCMI—The Teacher Program Series” published by the American Mathematical Society. Each volume in this series covers the content of one Summer School Teacher Program year and is independent of the rest.
Book Synopsis Probability, Decisions and Games by : Abel Rodríguez
Download or read book Probability, Decisions and Games written by Abel Rodríguez and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-04-24 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INTRODUCES THE FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY, STATISTICS, DECISION THEORY, AND GAME THEORY, AND FEATURES INTERESTING EXAMPLES OF GAMES OF CHANCE AND STRATEGY TO MOTIVATE AND ILLUSTRATE ABSTRACT MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS Covering both random and strategic games, Probability, Decisions and Games features a variety of gaming and gambling examples to build a better understanding of basic concepts of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory. The authors present fundamental concepts such as random variables, rational choice theory, mathematical expectation and variance, fair games, combinatorial calculus, conditional probability, Bayes Theorem, Bernoulli trials, zero-sum games and Nash equilibria, as well as their application in games such as Roulette, Craps, Lotto, Blackjack, Poker, Rock-Paper-Scissors, the Game of Chicken and Tic-Tac-Toe. Computer simulations, implemented using the popular R computing environment, are used to provide intuition on key concepts and verify complex calculations. The book starts by introducing simple concepts that are carefully motivated by the same historical examples that drove their original development of the field of probability, and then applies those concepts to popular contemporary games. The first two chapters of Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R feature an introductory discussion of probability and rational choice theory in finite and discrete spaces that builds upon the simple games discussed in the famous correspondence between Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Subsequent chapters utilize popular casino games such as Roulette and Blackjack to expand on these concepts illustrate modern applications of these methodologies. Finally, the book concludes with discussions on game theory using a number of strategic games. This book: · Features introductory coverage of probability, statistics, decision theory and game theory, and has been class-tested at University of California, Santa Cruz for the past six years · Illustrates basic concepts in probability through interesting and fun examples using a number of popular casino games: roulette, lotto, craps, blackjack, and poker · Introduces key ideas in game theory using classic games such as Rock-Paper-Scissors, Chess, and Tic-Tac-Toe. · Features computer simulations using R throughout in order to illustrate complex concepts and help readers verify complex calculations · Contains exercises and approaches games and gambling at a level that is accessible for readers with minimal experience · Adopts a unique approach by motivating complex concepts using first simple games and then moving on to more complex, well-known games that illustrate how these concepts work together Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R is a unique and helpful textbook for undergraduate courses on statistical reasoning, introduction to probability, statistical literacy, and quantitative reasoning for students from a variety of disciplines. ABEL RODRÍGUEZ, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC), CA, USA. The author of 40 journal articles, his research interests include Bayesian nonparametric methods, machine learning, spatial temporal models, network models, and extreme value theory. BRUNO MENDES, PhD, is Lecturer in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA. BRUNO MENDES, PhD, is Lecturer in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.INTRODUCES THE FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY, STATISTICS, DECISION THEORY, AND GAME THEORY, AND FEATURES INTERESTING EXAMPLES OF GAMES OF CHANCE AND STRATEGY TO MOTIVATE AND ILLUSTRATE ABSTRACT MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS Covering both random and strategic games, Probability, Decisions and Games features a variety of gaming and gambling examples to build a better understanding of basic concepts of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory. The authors present fundamental concepts such as random variables, rational choice theory, mathematical expectation and variance, fair games, combinatorial calculus, conditional probability, Bayes Theorem, Bernoulli trials, zero-sum games and Nash equilibria, as well as their application in games such as Roulette, Craps, Lotto, Blackjack, Poker, Rock-Paper-Scissors, the Game of Chicken and Tic-Tac-Toe. Computer simulations, implemented using the popular R computing environment, are used to provide intuition on key concepts and verify complex calculations. The book starts by introducing simple concepts that are carefully motivated by the same historical examples that drove their original development of the field of probability, and then applies those concepts to popular contemporary games. The first two chapters of Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R feature an introductory discussion of probability and rational choice theory in finite and discrete spaces that builds upon the simple games discussed in the famous correspondence between Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Subsequent chapters utilize popular casino games such as Roulette and Blackjack to expand on these concepts illustrate modern applications of these methodologies. Finally, the book concludes with discussions on game theory using a number of strategic games. This book: • Features introductory coverage of probability, statistics, decision theory and game theory, and has been class-tested at University of California, Santa Cruz for the past six years • Illustrates basic concepts in probability through interesting and fun examples using a number of popular casino games: roulette, lotto, craps, blackjack, and poker • Introduces key ideas in game theory using classic games such as Rock-Paper-Scissors, Chess, and Tic-Tac-Toe. • Features computer simulations using R throughout in order to illustrate complex concepts and help readers verify complex calculations • Contains exercises and approaches games and gambling at a level that is accessible for readers with minimal experience • Adopts a unique approach by motivating complex concepts using first simple games and then moving on to more complex, well-known games that illustrate how these concepts work together Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R is a unique and helpful textbook for undergraduate courses on statistical reasoning, introduction to probability, statistical literacy, and quantitative reasoning for students from a variety of disciplines. ABEL RODRÍGUEZ, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC), CA, USA. The author of 40 journal articles, his research interests include Bayesian nonparametric methods, machine learning, spatial temporal models, network models, and extreme value theory. BRUNO MENDES, PhD, is Lecturer in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
Book Synopsis Models for Probability and Statistical Inference by : James H. Stapleton
Download or read book Models for Probability and Statistical Inference written by James H. Stapleton and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-12-14 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This concise, yet thorough, book is enhanced with simulations and graphs to build the intuition of readers Models for Probability and Statistical Inference was written over a five-year period and serves as a comprehensive treatment of the fundamentals of probability and statistical inference. With detailed theoretical coverage found throughout the book, readers acquire the fundamentals needed to advance to more specialized topics, such as sampling, linear models, design of experiments, statistical computing, survival analysis, and bootstrapping. Ideal as a textbook for a two-semester sequence on probability and statistical inference, early chapters provide coverage on probability and include discussions of: discrete models and random variables; discrete distributions including binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and Poisson; continuous, normal, gamma, and conditional distributions; and limit theory. Since limit theory is usually the most difficult topic for readers to master, the author thoroughly discusses modes of convergence of sequences of random variables, with special attention to convergence in distribution. The second half of the book addresses statistical inference, beginning with a discussion on point estimation and followed by coverage of consistency and confidence intervals. Further areas of exploration include: distributions defined in terms of the multivariate normal, chi-square, t, and F (central and non-central); the one- and two-sample Wilcoxon test, together with methods of estimation based on both; linear models with a linear space-projection approach; and logistic regression. Each section contains a set of problems ranging in difficulty from simple to more complex, and selected answers as well as proofs to almost all statements are provided. An abundant amount of figures in addition to helpful simulations and graphs produced by the statistical package S-Plus(r) are included to help build the intuition of readers.
Book Synopsis Elementary Applications of Probability Theory by : Henry C. Tuckwell
Download or read book Elementary Applications of Probability Theory written by Henry C. Tuckwell and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-02-06 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a clear and straightforward introduction to applications of probability theory with examples given in the biological sciences and engineering. The first chapter contains a summary of basic probability theory. Chapters two to five deal with random variables and their applications. Topics covered include geometric probability, estimation of animal and plant populations, reliability theory and computer simulation. Chapter six contains a lucid account of the convergence of sequences of random variables, with emphasis on the central limit theorem and the weak law of numbers. The next four chapters introduce random processes, including random walks and Markov chains illustrated by examples in population genetics and population growth. This edition also includes two chapters which introduce, in a manifestly readable fashion, the topic of stochastic differential equations and their applications.
Book Synopsis Probability Theory by : Achim Klenke
Download or read book Probability Theory written by Achim Klenke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-12-31 with total page 621 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aimed primarily at graduate students and researchers, this text is a comprehensive course in modern probability theory and its measure-theoretical foundations. It covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the chapters on measure theory interlaced with the probabilistic chapters in order to display the power of the abstract concepts in the world of probability theory. In addition, plenty of figures, computer simulations, biographic details of key mathematicians, and a wealth of examples support and enliven the presentation.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Theory of Mean Field Games with Applications I by : René Carmona
Download or read book Probabilistic Theory of Mean Field Games with Applications I written by René Carmona and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-03-01 with total page 728 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two-volume book offers a comprehensive treatment of the probabilistic approach to mean field game models and their applications. The book is self-contained in nature and includes original material and applications with explicit examples throughout, including numerical solutions. Volume I of the book is entirely devoted to the theory of mean field games without a common noise. The first half of the volume provides a self-contained introduction to mean field games, starting from concrete illustrations of games with a finite number of players, and ending with ready-for-use solvability results. Readers are provided with the tools necessary for the solution of forward-backward stochastic differential equations of the McKean-Vlasov type at the core of the probabilistic approach. The second half of this volume focuses on the main principles of analysis on the Wasserstein space. It includes Lions' approach to the Wasserstein differential calculus, and the applications of its results to the analysis of stochastic mean field control problems. Together, both Volume I and Volume II will greatly benefit mathematical graduate students and researchers interested in mean field games. The authors provide a detailed road map through the book allowing different access points for different readers and building up the level of technical detail. The accessible approach and overview will allow interested researchers in the applied sciences to obtain a clear overview of the state of the art in mean field games.
Book Synopsis Concepts of Probability Theory by : Paul E. Pfeiffer
Download or read book Concepts of Probability Theory written by Paul E. Pfeiffer and published by Courier Corporation. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.
Download or read book Probability Theory written by R.G. Laha and published by Courier Dover Publications. This book was released on 2020-05-21 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive presentation of the basic concepts of probability theory examines both classical and modern methods. The treatment emphasizes the relationship between probability theory and mathematical analysis, and it stresses applications to statistics as well as to analysis. Topics include: • The laws of large numbers • Distribution and characteristic functions • The central limit problem • Dependence • Random variables taking values in a normed linear space Each chapter features worked examples in addition to problems, and bibliographical references to supplementary reading material enhance the text. For advanced undergraduates and graduate students in mathematics.
Book Synopsis Probability, Stochastic Processes, and Queueing Theory by : Randolph Nelson
Download or read book Probability, Stochastic Processes, and Queueing Theory written by Randolph Nelson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 595 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We will occasionally footnote a portion of text with a "**,, to indicate Notes on the that this portion can be initially bypassed. The reasons for bypassing a Text portion of the text include: the subject is a special topic that will not be referenced later, the material can be skipped on first reading, or the level of mathematics is higher than the rest of the text. In cases where a topic is self-contained, we opt to collect the material into an appendix that can be read by students at their leisure. The material in the text cannot be fully assimilated until one makes it Notes on "their own" by applying the material to specific problems. Self-discovery Problems is the best teacher and although they are no substitute for an inquiring mind, problems that explore the subject from different viewpoints can often help the student to think about the material in a uniquely per sonal way. With this in mind, we have made problems an integral part of this work and have attempted to make them interesting as well as informative.
Book Synopsis Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance by : Glenn Shafer
Download or read book Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance written by Glenn Shafer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-03-21 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Game-theoretic probability and finance come of age Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk’s Probability and Finance, published in 2001, showed that perfect-information games can be used to define mathematical probability. Based on fifteen years of further research, Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance presents a mature view of the foundational role game theory can play. Its account of probability theory opens the way to new methods of prediction and testing and makes many statistical methods more transparent and widely usable. Its contributions to finance theory include purely game-theoretic accounts of Ito’s stochastic calculus, the capital asset pricing model, the equity premium, and portfolio theory. Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance is a book of research. It is also a teaching resource. Each chapter is supplemented with carefully designed exercises and notes relating the new theory to its historical context. Praise from early readers “Ever since Kolmogorov's Grundbegriffe, the standard mathematical treatment of probability theory has been measure-theoretic. In this ground-breaking work, Shafer and Vovk give a game-theoretic foundation instead. While being just as rigorous, the game-theoretic approach allows for vast and useful generalizations of classical measure-theoretic results, while also giving rise to new, radical ideas for prediction, statistics and mathematical finance without stochastic assumptions. The authors set out their theory in great detail, resulting in what is definitely one of the most important books on the foundations of probability to have appeared in the last few decades.” – Peter Grünwald, CWI and University of Leiden “Shafer and Vovk have thoroughly re-written their 2001 book on the game-theoretic foundations for probability and for finance. They have included an account of the tremendous growth that has occurred since, in the game-theoretic and pathwise approaches to stochastic analysis and in their applications to continuous-time finance. This new book will undoubtedly spur a better understanding of the foundations of these very important fields, and we should all be grateful to its authors.” – Ioannis Karatzas, Columbia University
Book Synopsis Probability: Theory, Examples, Problems, Simulations by : Hannelore Lisei
Download or read book Probability: Theory, Examples, Problems, Simulations written by Hannelore Lisei and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-02-20 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A key pedagogical feature of the textbook is the accessible approach to probability concepts through examples with explanations and problems with solutions. The reader is encouraged to simulate in Matlab random experiments and to explore the theoretical aspects of the probabilistic models behind the studied experiments. By this appropriate balance between simulations and rigorous mathematical approach, the reader can experience the excitement of comprehending basic concepts and can develop the intuitive thinking in solving problems. The current textbook does not contain proofs for the stated theorems, but corresponding references are given. Moreover, the given Matlab codes and detailed solutions make the textbook accessible to researchers and undergraduate students, by learning various techniques from probability theory and its applications in other fields. This book is intended not only for students of mathematics but also for students of natural sciences, engineering, computer science and for science researchers, who possess the basic knowledge of calculus for the mathematical concepts of the textbook and elementary programming skills for the Matlab simulations.
