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Author : Paul Brace
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 476 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Probability Models of Congressional Career Decisions written by Paul Brace and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 476 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Roger B. Myerson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262355604
Total Pages : 569 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)
Download or read book Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition written by Roger B. Myerson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-12-17 with total page 569 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.
Author : Kevin A. Clarke
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 019538220X
Total Pages : 234 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (953 download)
Download or read book A Model Discipline written by Kevin A. Clarke and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2012-02-16 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political scientists use models to investigate and illuminate causal mechanisms, generate comparative data, and more. But how do we justify and rationalize the method? Why test predictions from a deductive, and thus truth-preserving, system? Primo and Clarke tackle these central questions in this novel work of methodology.
Author : Patrick W. Hopfensperfer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781572322400
Total Pages : 100 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (224 download)
Download or read book Probability Models written by Patrick W. Hopfensperfer and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Robert Goehlert
Publisher : CQ-Roll Call Group Books
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 680 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book The United States Congress written by Robert Goehlert and published by CQ-Roll Call Group Books. This book was released on 1994 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Kenneth Train
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521766559
Total Pages : 399 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (217 download)
Download or read book Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation written by Kenneth Train and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-06 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.
Author : Jan E. Leighley
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191607991
Total Pages : 795 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (916 download)
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior written by Jan E. Leighley and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2010-02-25 with total page 795 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics are a set of reference books offering authoritative and engaging critical overviews of the state of scholarship on American politics. Each volume focuses on a particular aspect of the field. The project is under the General Editorship of George C. Edwards III, and distinguished specialists in their respective fields edit each volume. The Handbooks aim not just to report on the discipline, but also to shape it as scholars critically assess the scholarship on a topic and propose directions in which it needs to move. The series is an indispensable reference for anyone working in American politics. This Handbook offers comprehensive coverage of the various theoretical approaches to the study of American elections and political behavior. The chapters are thoughtful and creative, providing broad overviews of intellectual developments and challenges, as well as incisive commentary on the accomplishments of, and challenges facing, scholars of American politics. Substantively, the Handbook includes chapters focusing on various approaches and issues in research design, political participation, vote choice, presidential and non-presidential elections, and issues, interests and elites as influences on individuals' political behaviour. Each of the chapters offers a working research bibliography, as well as retrospective evaluations of research and discussions of fruitful paths for future research. General Editor for The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics: George C. Edwards III
Author : Jim Albert
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351030132
Total Pages : 553 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (51 download)
Download or read book Probability and Bayesian Modeling written by Jim Albert and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-12-06 with total page 553 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.
Author : Moira B. MacKinnon
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135935815
Total Pages : 330 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (359 download)
Download or read book Representation and Effectiveness in Latin American Democracies written by Moira B. MacKinnon and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-03-14 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Legislatures, the judiciary and civil society are important actors in representative democracies. In what ways and how well do they represent? And how effectively do they carry out their institutional and social roles? Both questions refer to the key dimensions of democracy analyzed in this book: representativeness and effectiveness, respectively. While they have been developed separately in scholarly work on institutions and regimes, there is little work considering them simultaneously, and on their interaction. Using quantitative and/or qualitative methods, contributions from top scholars in the field of legislatures, the judiciary and civil society examine these two concepts and their relationships in four Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. Designed to guide the reader through the complexities of this debate, each expert engages in a larger set of theoretical debates about different approaches to representation in each sphere. In doing so, they debate how effectively these spheres carry out their roles in each country: whether a congress is institutionalized, its accountability, and its performance as a lawmaker; whether a judicial system is independent, carries out oversight, and protects citizen rights; and the role of civil society in a representative democracy. Representation and Effectiveness in Latin American Democracies is a timely and welcomed contribution to the to the growing debate about the quality of democracy in Latin America, and the developing world more generally.
Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Special Committee on Aging
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 952 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (36 download)
Download or read book Hearings, Reports and Prints of the Senate Special Committee on Aging written by United States. Congress. Senate. Special Committee on Aging and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 952 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Norman Fenton
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351978977
Total Pages : 661 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks written by Norman Fenton and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-09-03 with total page 661 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1248 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Monthly Catalog of United States Government Publications written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 1248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : William H. Greene
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139485954
Total Pages : 383 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)
Download or read book Modeling Ordered Choices written by William H. Greene and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-08 with total page 383 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is increasingly common for analysts to seek out the opinions of individuals and organizations using attitudinal scales such as degree of satisfaction or importance attached to an issue. Examples include levels of obesity, seriousness of a health condition, attitudes towards service levels, opinions on products, voting intentions, and the degree of clarity of contracts. Ordered choice models provide a relevant methodology for capturing the sources of influence that explain the choice made amongst a set of ordered alternatives. The methods have evolved to a level of sophistication that can allow for heterogeneity in the threshold parameters, in the explanatory variables (through random parameters), and in the decomposition of the residual variance. This book brings together contributions in ordered choice modeling from a number of disciplines, synthesizing developments over the last fifty years, and suggests useful extensions to account for the wide range of sources of influence on choice.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1252 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Monthly Catalogue, United States Public Documents written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 1252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1056 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book The American Economic Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2005-03 with total page 1056 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes annual List of doctoral dissertations in political economy in progress in American universities and colleges; and the Hand book of the American Economic Association.
Author : United States. Employment Standards Administration
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 438 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Interim Report to Congress on Age Discrimination in Employment Act Studies written by United States. Employment Standards Administration and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jeffrey Lazarus
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472123599
Total Pages : 237 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (721 download)
Download or read book Gendered Vulnerability written by Jeffrey Lazarus and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2018-03-02 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gendered Vulnerability examines the factors that make women politicians more electorally vulnerable than their male counterparts. These factors combine to convince women that they must work harder to win elections—a phenomenon that Jeffrey Lazarus and Amy Steigerwalt term “gendered vulnerability.” Since women feel constant pressure to make sure they can win reelection, they devote more of their time and energy to winning their constituents’ favor. Lazarus and Steigerwalt examine different facets of legislative behavior, finding that female members do a better job of representing their constituents than male members.
