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Predictive Inference
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Book Synopsis Predictive Inference by : Seymour Geisser
Download or read book Predictive Inference written by Seymour Geisser and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author's research has been directed towards inference involving observables rather than parameters. In this book, he brings together his views on predictive or observable inference and its advantages over parametric inference. While the book discusses a variety of approaches to prediction including those based on parametric, nonparametric, and nonstochastic statistical models, it is devoted mainly to predictive applications of the Bayesian approach. It not only substitutes predictive analyses for parametric analyses, but it also presents predictive analyses that have no real parametric analogues. It demonstrates that predictive inference can be a critical component of even strict parametric inference when dealing with interim analyses. This approach to predictive inference will be of interest to statisticians, psychologists, econometricians, and sociologists.
Book Synopsis Predictive Inference by : Seymour Geisser
Download or read book Predictive Inference written by Seymour Geisser and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Probably Not by : Lawrence N. Dworsky
Download or read book Probably Not written by Lawrence N. Dworsky and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-09-04 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A revised edition that explores random numbers, probability, and statistical inference at an introductory mathematical level Written in an engaging and entertaining manner, the revised and updated second edition of Probably Not continues to offer an informative guide to probability and prediction. The expanded second edition contains problem and solution sets. In addition, the book’s illustrative examples reveal how we are living in a statistical world, what we can expect, what we really know based upon the information at hand and explains when we only think we know something. The author introduces the principles of probability and explains probability distribution functions. The book covers combined and conditional probabilities and contains a new section on Bayes Theorem and Bayesian Statistics, which features some simple examples including the Presecutor’s Paradox, and Bayesian vs. Frequentist thinking about statistics. New to this edition is a chapter on Benford’s Law that explores measuring the compliance and financial fraud detection using Benford’s Law. This book: Contains relevant mathematics and examples that demonstrate how to use the concepts presented Features a new chapter on Benford’s Law that explains why we find Benford’s law upheld in so many, but not all, natural situations Presents updated Life insurance tables Contains updates on the Gantt Chart example that further develops the discussion of random events Offers a companion site featuring solutions to the problem sets within the book Written for mathematics and statistics students and professionals, the updated edition of Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference, Second Edition combines the mathematics of probability with real-world examples. LAWRENCE N. DWORSKY, PhD, is a retired Vice President of the Technical Staff and Director of Motorola’s Components Research Laboratory in Schaumburg, Illinois, USA. He is the author of Introduction to Numerical Electrostatics Using MATLAB from Wiley.
Book Synopsis Predictive Statistics by : Bertrand S. Clarke
Download or read book Predictive Statistics written by Bertrand S. Clarke and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-04-12 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A bold retooling of statistics to focus directly on predictive performance with traditional and contemporary data types and methodologies.
Book Synopsis The Elements of Statistical Learning by : Trevor Hastie
Download or read book The Elements of Statistical Learning written by Trevor Hastie and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past decade there has been an explosion in computation and information technology. With it have come vast amounts of data in a variety of fields such as medicine, biology, finance, and marketing. The challenge of understanding these data has led to the development of new tools in the field of statistics, and spawned new areas such as data mining, machine learning, and bioinformatics. Many of these tools have common underpinnings but are often expressed with different terminology. This book describes the important ideas in these areas in a common conceptual framework. While the approach is statistical, the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics. Many examples are given, with a liberal use of color graphics. It should be a valuable resource for statisticians and anyone interested in data mining in science or industry. The book’s coverage is broad, from supervised learning (prediction) to unsupervised learning. The many topics include neural networks, support vector machines, classification trees and boosting---the first comprehensive treatment of this topic in any book. This major new edition features many topics not covered in the original, including graphical models, random forests, ensemble methods, least angle regression & path algorithms for the lasso, non-negative matrix factorization, and spectral clustering. There is also a chapter on methods for “wide” data (p bigger than n), including multiple testing and false discovery rates. Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, and Jerome Friedman are professors of statistics at Stanford University. They are prominent researchers in this area: Hastie and Tibshirani developed generalized additive models and wrote a popular book of that title. Hastie co-developed much of the statistical modeling software and environment in R/S-PLUS and invented principal curves and surfaces. Tibshirani proposed the lasso and is co-author of the very successful An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Friedman is the co-inventor of many data-mining tools including CART, MARS, projection pursuit and gradient boosting.
Book Synopsis Likehoods & Sufficiencies in Predictive Inference by : Lichun Zhang
Download or read book Likehoods & Sufficiencies in Predictive Inference written by Lichun Zhang and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Nonparametric Predictive Inference by : Frank Coolen
Download or read book Nonparametric Predictive Inference written by Frank Coolen and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 2012-06-15 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book will be the first on NPI and will provide an introduction to and overview of, the approach′s current state of the art. It will be a self-contained treatment of the subject, introducing it to readers, and leading them on to a more advanced and specialist understanding. The Author compares and contrasts NPI theory with classical statistical theory, pointing out the ways in which NPI can enhance current research in areas ranging from operations research to engineering and artificial intelligence. After the initial introductory chapter, the book provides a series of chapters outlining the use of NPI in specific settings, e.g. for real-valued random quantities or for multinomial data. This will be followed by chapters detailing further applications in statistics, providing examples such as NPI for statistical quality and process control, reliability and operations research, with a variety of examples such as maintenance and replacement problems, queuing situations and risk reliability inferences. The foundations and ideas behind NPI will be presented along with an examination and comparison of more traditional approaches of classical and Bayesian statistics, providing further insights into the advantages of NPI. Future directions and the accommodation of multivariate data will also be discussed.
Book Synopsis Modes of Parametric Statistical Inference by : Seymour Geisser
Download or read book Modes of Parametric Statistical Inference written by Seymour Geisser and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-01-27 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fascinating investigation into the foundations of statistical inference This publication examines the distinct philosophical foundations of different statistical modes of parametric inference. Unlike many other texts that focus on methodology and applications, this book focuses on a rather unique combination of theoretical and foundational aspects that underlie the field of statistical inference. Readers gain a deeper understanding of the evolution and underlying logic of each mode as well as each mode's strengths and weaknesses. The book begins with fascinating highlights from the history of statistical inference. Readers are given historical examples of statistical reasoning used to address practical problems that arose throughout the centuries. Next, the book goes on to scrutinize four major modes of statistical inference: * Frequentist * Likelihood * Fiducial * Bayesian The author provides readers with specific examples and counterexamples of situations and datasets where the modes yield both similar and dissimilar results, including a violation of the likelihood principle in which Bayesian and likelihood methods differ from frequentist methods. Each example is followed by a detailed discussion of why the results may have varied from one mode to another, helping the reader to gain a greater understanding of each mode and how it works. Moreover, the author provides considerable mathematical detail on certain points to highlight key aspects of theoretical development. The author's writing style and use of examples make the text clear and engaging. This book is fundamental reading for graduate-level students in statistics as well as anyone with an interest in the foundations of statistics and the principles underlying statistical inference, including students in mathematics and the philosophy of science. Readers with a background in theoretical statistics will find the text both accessible and absorbing.
Book Synopsis Large-Scale Inference by : Bradley Efron
Download or read book Large-Scale Inference written by Bradley Efron and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-11-29 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live in a new age for statistical inference, where modern scientific technology such as microarrays and fMRI machines routinely produce thousands and sometimes millions of parallel data sets, each with its own estimation or testing problem. Doing thousands of problems at once is more than repeated application of classical methods. Taking an empirical Bayes approach, Bradley Efron, inventor of the bootstrap, shows how information accrues across problems in a way that combines Bayesian and frequentist ideas. Estimation, testing and prediction blend in this framework, producing opportunities for new methodologies of increased power. New difficulties also arise, easily leading to flawed inferences. This book takes a careful look at both the promise and pitfalls of large-scale statistical inference, with particular attention to false discovery rates, the most successful of the new statistical techniques. Emphasis is on the inferential ideas underlying technical developments, illustrated using a large number of real examples.
Book Synopsis Predictive Inference by : James Miller
Download or read book Predictive Inference written by James Miller and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bayes Rules! written by Alicia A. Johnson and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-03-03 with total page 606 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling “A thoughtful and entertaining book, and a great way to get started with Bayesian analysis.” Andrew Gelman, Columbia University “The examples are modern, and even many frequentist intro books ignore important topics (like the great p-value debate) that the authors address. The focus on simulation for understanding is excellent.” Amy Herring, Duke University “I sincerely believe that a generation of students will cite this book as inspiration for their use of – and love for – Bayesian statistics. The narrative holds the reader’s attention and flows naturally – almost conversationally. Put simply, this is perhaps the most engaging introductory statistics textbook I have ever read. [It] is a natural choice for an introductory undergraduate course in applied Bayesian statistics." Yue Jiang, Duke University “This is by far the best book I’ve seen on how to (and how to teach students to) do Bayesian modeling and understand the underlying mathematics and computation. The authors build intuition and scaffold ideas expertly, using interesting real case studies, insightful graphics, and clear explanations. The scope of this book is vast – from basic building blocks to hierarchical modeling, but the authors’ thoughtful organization allows the reader to navigate this journey smoothly. And impressively, by the end of the book, one can run sophisticated Bayesian models and actually understand the whys, whats, and hows.” Paul Roback, St. Olaf College “The authors provide a compelling, integrated, accessible, and non-religious introduction to statistical modeling using a Bayesian approach. They outline a principled approach that features computational implementations and model assessment with ethical implications interwoven throughout. Students and instructors will find the conceptual and computational exercises to be fresh and engaging.” Nicholas Horton, Amherst College An engaging, sophisticated, and fun introduction to the field of Bayesian statistics, Bayes Rules!: An Introduction to Applied Bayesian Modeling brings the power of modern Bayesian thinking, modeling, and computing to a broad audience. In particular, the book is an ideal resource for advanced undergraduate statistics students and practitioners with comparable experience. Bayes Rules! empowers readers to weave Bayesian approaches into their everyday practice. Discussions and applications are data driven. A natural progression from fundamental to multivariable, hierarchical models emphasizes a practical and generalizable model building process. The evaluation of these Bayesian models reflects the fact that a data analysis does not exist in a vacuum. Features • Utilizes data-driven examples and exercises. • Emphasizes the iterative model building and evaluation process. • Surveys an interconnected range of multivariable regression and classification models. • Presents fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. • Integrates R code, including RStan modeling tools and the bayesrules package. • Encourages readers to tap into their intuition and learn by doing. • Provides a friendly and inclusive introduction to technical Bayesian concepts. • Supports Bayesian applications with foundational Bayesian theory.
Download or read book Active Inference written by Thomas Parr and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-03-29 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first comprehensive treatment of active inference, an integrative perspective on brain, cognition, and behavior used across multiple disciplines. Active inference is a way of understanding sentient behavior—a theory that characterizes perception, planning, and action in terms of probabilistic inference. Developed by theoretical neuroscientist Karl Friston over years of groundbreaking research, active inference provides an integrated perspective on brain, cognition, and behavior that is increasingly used across multiple disciplines including neuroscience, psychology, and philosophy. Active inference puts the action into perception. This book offers the first comprehensive treatment of active inference, covering theory, applications, and cognitive domains. Active inference is a “first principles” approach to understanding behavior and the brain, framed in terms of a single imperative to minimize free energy. The book emphasizes the implications of the free energy principle for understanding how the brain works. It first introduces active inference both conceptually and formally, contextualizing it within current theories of cognition. It then provides specific examples of computational models that use active inference to explain such cognitive phenomena as perception, attention, memory, and planning.
Book Synopsis Applied Predictive Modeling by : Max Kuhn
Download or read book Applied Predictive Modeling written by Max Kuhn and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-05-17 with total page 595 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied Predictive Modeling covers the overall predictive modeling process, beginning with the crucial steps of data preprocessing, data splitting and foundations of model tuning. The text then provides intuitive explanations of numerous common and modern regression and classification techniques, always with an emphasis on illustrating and solving real data problems. The text illustrates all parts of the modeling process through many hands-on, real-life examples, and every chapter contains extensive R code for each step of the process. This multi-purpose text can be used as an introduction to predictive models and the overall modeling process, a practitioner’s reference handbook, or as a text for advanced undergraduate or graduate level predictive modeling courses. To that end, each chapter contains problem sets to help solidify the covered concepts and uses data available in the book’s R package. This text is intended for a broad audience as both an introduction to predictive models as well as a guide to applying them. Non-mathematical readers will appreciate the intuitive explanations of the techniques while an emphasis on problem-solving with real data across a wide variety of applications will aid practitioners who wish to extend their expertise. Readers should have knowledge of basic statistical ideas, such as correlation and linear regression analysis. While the text is biased against complex equations, a mathematical background is needed for advanced topics.
Book Synopsis Combining Soft Computing and Statistical Methods in Data Analysis by : Christian Borgelt
Download or read book Combining Soft Computing and Statistical Methods in Data Analysis written by Christian Borgelt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last forty years there has been a growing interest to extend probability theory and statistics and to allow for more flexible modelling of imprecision, uncertainty, vagueness and ignorance. The fact that in many real-life situations data uncertainty is not only present in the form of randomness (stochastic uncertainty) but also in the form of imprecision/fuzziness is but one point underlining the need for a widening of statistical tools. Most such extensions originate in a "softening" of classical methods, allowing, in particular, to work with imprecise or vague data, considering imprecise or generalized probabilities and fuzzy events, etc. About ten years ago the idea of establishing a recurrent forum for discussing new trends in the before-mentioned context was born and resulted in the first International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS) that was held in Warsaw in 2002. In the following years the conference took place in Oviedo (2004), in Bristol (2006) and in Toulouse (2008). In the current edition the conference returns to Oviedo. This edited volume is a collection of papers presented at the SMPS 2010 conference held in Mieres and Oviedo. It gives a comprehensive overview of current research into the fusion of soft methods with probability and statistics.
Book Synopsis Invariant Predictive Inferences with Applications by : Haihong Zhu
Download or read book Invariant Predictive Inferences with Applications written by Haihong Zhu and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Personnel Assessment and Selection by : Neal Schmitt
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Personnel Assessment and Selection written by Neal Schmitt and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-03-28 with total page 992 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Employee selection has long stood at the practical forefront of industrial/organizational psychology. Today's social, business, and economic climates require ongoing adaptations by those who select organizations' personnel, and research on the topic helps gauge the impact of these adaptations and their implications for human performance and potential. The Oxford Handbook of Personnel Assessment and Selection codifies the wealth of new research surrounding employee selection (web-based assessments, social networking, globalization of organizations), situating them alongside more traditional practices to establish the best and most relevant research for both professionals and academics. Comprising chapters from authors in both the private sector and academia, this volume is organized into seven parts: (1) historical and social context of the field of assessment and selection; (2) research strategies; (3) individual difference constructs that underlie effective performance; (4) measures of predictor constructs; (5) employee performance and outcome assessment; (6) societal and organizational constraints on selection practice; and (7) implementation and sustainability of selection systems. While providing a comprehensive review of current research and practice, the purpose of this handbook is to provide an up-to-date profile of each of the areas addressed and highlight current questions that deserve additional attention from researchers and practitioners. This compendium is essential reading for industrial/organizational psychologists and human resource managers.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Engineering by : Louis J. M. Aslett
Download or read book Uncertainty in Engineering written by Louis J. M. Aslett and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book provides an introduction to uncertainty quantification in engineering. Starting with preliminaries on Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods, followed by material on imprecise probabilities, it then focuses on reliability theory and simulation methods for complex systems. The final two chapters discuss various aspects of aerospace engineering, considering stochastic model updating from an imprecise Bayesian perspective, and uncertainty quantification for aerospace flight modelling. Written by experts in the subject, and based on lectures given at the Second Training School of the European Research and Training Network UTOPIAE (Uncertainty Treatment and Optimization in Aerospace Engineering), which took place at Durham University (United Kingdom) from 2 to 6 July 2018, the book offers an essential resource for students as well as scientists and practitioners.
