Predictions Nonlinearities And Portfolio Choice

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Predictions, Nonlinearities and Portfolio Choice

Author : Friedrich Christian Kruse
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 3844101853
Total Pages : 222 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (441 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictions, Nonlinearities and Portfolio Choice by : Friedrich Christian Kruse

Download or read book Predictions, Nonlinearities and Portfolio Choice written by Friedrich Christian Kruse and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2012 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance researchers and asset management practitioners put a lot of effort into the question of optimal asset allocation. With this respect, a lot of research has been conducted on portfolio decision making as well as quantitative modeling and prediction models. This study brings together three fields of research, which are usually analyzed in an isolated manner in the literature: - Predictability of asset returns and their covariance matrix - Optimal portfolio decision making - Nonlinear modeling, performed by artificial neural networks, and their impact on predictions as well as optimal portfolio construction Including predictability in asset allocation is the focus of this work and it pays special attention to issues related to nonlinearities. The contribution of this study to the portfolio choice literature is twofold. First, motivated by the evidence of linear predictability, the impact of nonlinear predictions on portfolio performances is analyzed. Predictions are empirically performed for an investor who invests in equities (represented by the DAX index), bonds (represented by the REXP index) and a risk-free rate. Second, a solution to the dynamic programming problem for intertemporal portfolio choice is presented. The method is based on functional approximations of the investor's value function with artificial neural networks. The method is easily capable of handling multiple state variables. Hence, the effect of adding predictive parameters to the state space is the focus of analysis as well as the impacts of estimation biases and the view of a Bayesian investor on intertemporal portfolio choice. One important empirical result shows that residual correlation among state variables have an impact on intertemporal portfolio decision making.

Strategic Asset Allocation

Author : John Y. Campbell
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 019160691X
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (916 download)

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Book Synopsis Strategic Asset Allocation by : John Y. Campbell

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

Empirical Asset Pricing

Author : Wayne Ferson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262039370
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Biological Systems: Nonlinear Dynamics Approach

Author : Jorge Carballido-Landeira
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 303016585X
Total Pages : 111 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Biological Systems: Nonlinear Dynamics Approach by : Jorge Carballido-Landeira

Download or read book Biological Systems: Nonlinear Dynamics Approach written by Jorge Carballido-Landeira and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-29 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects recent advances in the field of nonlinear dynamics in biological systems. Focusing on medical applications as well as more fundamental questions in biochemistry, it presents recent findings in areas such as control in chemically driven reaction-diffusion systems, electrical wave propagation through heart tissue, neural network growth, chiral symmetry breaking in polymers and mechanochemical pattern formation in the cytoplasm, particularly in the context of cardiac cells. It is a compilation of works, including contributions from international scientists who attended the “2nd BCAM Workshop on Nonlinear Dynamics in Biological Systems,” held at the Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Bilbao in September 2016. Embracing diverse disciplines and using multidisciplinary approaches – including theoretical concepts, simulations and experiments – these contributions highlight the nonlinear nature of biological systems in order to be able to reproduce their complex behavior. Edited by the conference organizers and featuring results that represent recent findings and not necessarily those presented at the conference, the book appeals to applied mathematicians, biophysicists and computational biologists.

Third-Order Risk Preferences and Cumulative Prospect Theory

Author : Michael Borß
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN 13 : 384410500X
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (441 download)

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Book Synopsis Third-Order Risk Preferences and Cumulative Prospect Theory by : Michael Borß

Download or read book Third-Order Risk Preferences and Cumulative Prospect Theory written by Michael Borß and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is broad theoretical and empirical evidence that investors exhibit a preference for skewness. However, there is little research regarding the extent to which individuals really favor positive skewness in individual decision making. In this dissertation, a controlled laboratory experiment is used to test for skewness preferences and prudence – a broader third-order risk preference that is closely linked to skewness preferences. Skewness and prudence preferences are further analyzed both within an Expected Utility Theory framework as well as with Cumulative Prospect Theory. For this, a sound experimental setup is used that also excludes any potentially distortionary effects from loss aversion. This dissertation therefore contributes to better understanding of individual risk preferences and other impact factors, such as a more “rational” vs. a more “intuitive” decision making process in individual decision making.

Neural Networks and the Financial Markets

Author : Jimmy Shadbolt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1447101510
Total Pages : 266 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (471 download)

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Book Synopsis Neural Networks and the Financial Markets by : Jimmy Shadbolt

Download or read book Neural Networks and the Financial Markets written by Jimmy Shadbolt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume looks at financial prediction from a broad range of perspectives. It covers: - the economic arguments - the practicalities of the markets - how predictions are used - how predictions are made - how predictions are turned into something usable (asset locations) It combines a discussion of standard theory with state-of-the-art material on a wide range of information processing techniques as applied to cutting-edge financial problems. All the techniques are demonstrated with real examples using actual market data, and show that it is possible to extract information from very noisy, sparse data sets. Aimed primarily at researchers in financial prediction, time series analysis and information processing, this book will also be of interest to quantitative fund managers and other professionals involved in financial prediction.

Chaos & Nonlinear Dynamics in the Financial Markets

Author : Robert R. Trippi
Publisher : Robert Trippi
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 546 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Chaos & Nonlinear Dynamics in the Financial Markets by : Robert R. Trippi

Download or read book Chaos & Nonlinear Dynamics in the Financial Markets written by Robert R. Trippi and published by Robert Trippi. This book was released on 1995 with total page 546 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Computer disk illustrates behavior of several of the chaotic processes discussed in text. Assists the user in viewing the change in a system from unstable to stable states.

Missing Data Methods

Author : David M. Drukker
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1780525273
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Missing Data Methods by : David M. Drukker

Download or read book Missing Data Methods written by David M. Drukker and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2011-11-30 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part of the "Advances in Econometrics" series, this title contains chapters covering topics such as: Missing-Data Imputation in Nonstationary Panel Data Models; Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance; Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Sample Selection Models Using Gaussian Copulas; and, Consistent Estimation and Orthogonality.

Business Applications of Artificial Intelligence

Author : Vijay S. Desai
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 266 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Business Applications of Artificial Intelligence by : Vijay S. Desai

Download or read book Business Applications of Artificial Intelligence written by Vijay S. Desai and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Computational Intelligence and Data Analytics

Author : Rajkumar Buyya
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 981193391X
Total Pages : 616 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (119 download)

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Book Synopsis Computational Intelligence and Data Analytics by : Rajkumar Buyya

Download or read book Computational Intelligence and Data Analytics written by Rajkumar Buyya and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-09-01 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents high-quality research papers presented at the International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Data Analytics (ICCIDA 2022), organized by the Department of Information Technology, Vasavi College of Engineering, Hyderabad, India in January 2022. ICCIDA provides an excellent platform for exchanging knowledge with the global community of scientists, engineers, and educators. This volume covers cutting-edge research in two prominent areas – computational intelligence and data analytics, and allied research areas.

Option Pricing, Interest Rates and Risk Management

Author : Elyès Jouini
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521792370
Total Pages : 324 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (923 download)

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Book Synopsis Option Pricing, Interest Rates and Risk Management by : Elyès Jouini

Download or read book Option Pricing, Interest Rates and Risk Management written by Elyès Jouini and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2001 handbook surveys the state of practice, method and understanding in the field of mathematical finance. Every chapter has been written by leading researchers and each starts by briefly surveying the existing results for a given topic, then discusses more recent results and, finally, points out open problems with an indication of what needs to be done in order to solve them. The primary audiences for the book are doctoral students, researchers and practitioners who already have some basic knowledge of mathematical finance. In sum, this is a comprehensive reference work for mathematical finance and will be indispensable to readers who need to find a quick introduction or reference to a specific topic, leading all the way to cutting edge material.

Financial Risk Management

Author : Steven Allen
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780471219774
Total Pages : 428 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Risk Management by : Steven Allen

Download or read book Financial Risk Management written by Steven Allen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-02-27 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Table of contents

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data

Author : Philip Rothman
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0792383796
Total Pages : 394 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (923 download)

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Book Synopsis Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data by : Philip Rothman

Download or read book Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data written by Philip Rothman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1999-01-31 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data provides an examination of the flourishing interest that has developed in this area over the past decade. The constant theme throughout this work is that standard linear time series tools leave unexamined and unexploited economically significant features in frequently used data sets. The book comprises original contributions written by specialists in the field, and offers a combination of both applied and methodological papers. It will be useful to both seasoned veterans of nonlinear time series analysis and those searching for an informative panoramic look at front-line developments in the area.

Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540684360
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (46 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by : Mohammed Abdellaoui

Download or read book Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-29 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

A Selected Annotated Bibliography on the Analysis of Water Resource Systems

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis A Selected Annotated Bibliography on the Analysis of Water Resource Systems by :

Download or read book A Selected Annotated Bibliography on the Analysis of Water Resource Systems written by and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Complex Nonlinearity

Author : Vladimir G. Ivancevic
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540793577
Total Pages : 855 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Complex Nonlinearity by : Vladimir G. Ivancevic

Download or read book Complex Nonlinearity written by Vladimir G. Ivancevic and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-05-31 with total page 855 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complex Nonlinearity: Chaos, Phase Transitions, Topology Change and Path Integrals is a book about prediction & control of general nonlinear and chaotic dynamics of high-dimensional complex systems of various physical and non-physical nature and their underpinning geometro-topological change. The book starts with a textbook-like expose on nonlinear dynamics, attractors and chaos, both temporal and spatio-temporal, including modern techniques of chaos–control. Chapter 2 turns to the edge of chaos, in the form of phase transitions (equilibrium and non-equilibrium, oscillatory, fractal and noise-induced), as well as the related field of synergetics. While the natural stage for linear dynamics comprises of flat, Euclidean geometry (with the corresponding calculation tools from linear algebra and analysis), the natural stage for nonlinear dynamics is curved, Riemannian geometry (with the corresponding tools from nonlinear, tensor algebra and analysis). The extreme nonlinearity – chaos – corresponds to the topology change of this curved geometrical stage, usually called configuration manifold. Chapter 3 elaborates on geometry and topology change in relation with complex nonlinearity and chaos. Chapter 4 develops general nonlinear dynamics, continuous and discrete, deterministic and stochastic, in the unique form of path integrals and their action-amplitude formalism. This most natural framework for representing both phase transitions and topology change starts with Feynman’s sum over histories, to be quickly generalized into the sum over geometries and topologies. The last Chapter puts all the previously developed techniques together and presents the unified form of complex nonlinearity. Here we have chaos, phase transitions, geometrical dynamics and topology change, all working together in the form of path integrals. The objective of this book is to provide a serious reader with a serious scientific tool that will enable them to actually perform a competitive research in modern complex nonlinearity. It includes a comprehensive bibliography on the subject and a detailed index. Target readership includes all researchers and students of complex nonlinear systems (in physics, mathematics, engineering, chemistry, biology, psychology, sociology, economics, medicine, etc.), working both in industry/clinics and academia.

Handbook of Portfolio Construction

Author : John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387774394
Total Pages : 796 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (877 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Portfolio Construction by : John B. Guerard, Jr.

Download or read book Handbook of Portfolio Construction written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-12-12 with total page 796 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio construction is fundamental to the investment management process. In the 1950s, Harry Markowitz demonstrated the benefits of efficient diversification by formulating a mathematical program for generating the "efficient frontier" to summarize optimal trade-offs between expected return and risk. The Markowitz framework continues to be used as a basis for both practical portfolio construction and emerging research in financial economics. Such concepts as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), for example, provide the foundation for setting benchmarks, for predicting returns and risk, and for performance measurement. This volume showcases original essays by some of today’s most prominent academics and practitioners in the field on the contemporary application of Markowitz techniques. Covering a wide spectrum of topics, including portfolio selection, data mining tests, and multi-factor risk models, the book presents a comprehensive approach to portfolio construction tools, models, frameworks, and analyses, with both practical and theoretical implications.