Predicting Risk

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The Wiley Handbook of What Works in Violence Risk Management

Author : J. Stephen Wormith
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119315719
Total Pages : 608 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis The Wiley Handbook of What Works in Violence Risk Management by : J. Stephen Wormith

Download or read book The Wiley Handbook of What Works in Violence Risk Management written by J. Stephen Wormith and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-02-10 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive guide to the theory, research and practice of violence risk management The Wiley Handbook of What Works in Violence Risk Management: Theory, Research and Practice offers a comprehensive guide to the theory, research and practice of violence risk management. With contributions from a panel of noted international experts, the book explores the most recent advances to the theoretical understanding, assessment and management of violent behavior. Designed to be an accessible resource, the highly readable chapters address common issues associated with violent behavior such as alcohol misuse and the less common issues for example offenders with intellectual disabilities. Written for both those new to the field and professionals with years of experience, the book offers a wide-ranging review of who commit acts of violence, their prevalence in society and the most recent explanations for their behavior. The contributors explore various assessment approaches and highlight specialized risk assessment instruments. The Handbook provides the latest evidence on effective treatment and risk management and includes a number of well-established and effective treatment interventions for violent offenders. This important book: Contains an authoritative and comprehensive guide to the topic Includes contributions from an international panel of experts Offers information on violence risk formulation Reveals the most recent techniques in violence risk assessment Explains what works in violence intervention Reviews specialty clinical assessments Written for clinicians and other professionals in the field of violence prevention and assessment, The Wiley Handbook of What Works in Violence Risk Management is unique in its approach because it offers a comprehensive review of the topic rather than like other books on the market that take a narrower view.

Financial Risk Forecasting

Author : Jon Danielsson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119977118
Total Pages : 307 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson

Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.

Clinical Prediction Models

Author : Ewout W. Steyerberg
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030163997
Total Pages : 574 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Clinical Prediction Models by : Ewout W. Steyerberg

Download or read book Clinical Prediction Models written by Ewout W. Steyerberg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-07-22 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second edition of this volume provides insight and practical illustrations on how modern statistical concepts and regression methods can be applied in medical prediction problems, including diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. Many advances have been made in statistical approaches towards outcome prediction, but a sensible strategy is needed for model development, validation, and updating, such that prediction models can better support medical practice. There is an increasing need for personalized evidence-based medicine that uses an individualized approach to medical decision-making. In this Big Data era, there is expanded access to large volumes of routinely collected data and an increased number of applications for prediction models, such as targeted early detection of disease and individualized approaches to diagnostic testing and treatment. Clinical Prediction Models presents a practical checklist that needs to be considered for development of a valid prediction model. Steps include preliminary considerations such as dealing with missing values; coding of predictors; selection of main effects and interactions for a multivariable model; estimation of model parameters with shrinkage methods and incorporation of external data; evaluation of performance and usefulness; internal validation; and presentation formatting. The text also addresses common issues that make prediction models suboptimal, such as small sample sizes, exaggerated claims, and poor generalizability. The text is primarily intended for clinical epidemiologists and biostatisticians. Including many case studies and publicly available R code and data sets, the book is also appropriate as a textbook for a graduate course on predictive modeling in diagnosis and prognosis. While practical in nature, the book also provides a philosophical perspective on data analysis in medicine that goes beyond predictive modeling. Updates to this new and expanded edition include: • A discussion of Big Data and its implications for the design of prediction models • Machine learning issues • More simulations with missing ‘y’ values • Extended discussion on between-cohort heterogeneity • Description of ShinyApp • Updated LASSO illustration • New case studies

Regression Modeling Strategies

Author : Frank E. Harrell
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 147573462X
Total Pages : 583 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Regression Modeling Strategies by : Frank E. Harrell

Download or read book Regression Modeling Strategies written by Frank E. Harrell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 583 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many texts are excellent sources of knowledge about individual statistical tools, but the art of data analysis is about choosing and using multiple tools. Instead of presenting isolated techniques, this text emphasizes problem solving strategies that address the many issues arising when developing multivariable models using real data and not standard textbook examples. It includes imputation methods for dealing with missing data effectively, methods for dealing with nonlinear relationships and for making the estimation of transformations a formal part of the modeling process, methods for dealing with "too many variables to analyze and not enough observations," and powerful model validation techniques based on the bootstrap. This text realistically deals with model uncertainty and its effects on inference to achieve "safe data mining".

Against Prediction

Author : Bernard E. Harcourt
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226315991
Total Pages : 345 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Against Prediction by : Bernard E. Harcourt

Download or read book Against Prediction written by Bernard E. Harcourt and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-09-15 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From random security checks at airports to the use of risk assessment in sentencing, actuarial methods are being used more than ever to determine whom law enforcement officials target and punish. And with the exception of racial profiling on our highways and streets, most people favor these methods because they believe they’re a more cost-effective way to fight crime. In Against Prediction, Bernard E. Harcourt challenges this growing reliance on actuarial methods. These prediction tools, he demonstrates, may in fact increase the overall amount of crime in society, depending on the relative responsiveness of the profiled populations to heightened security. They may also aggravate the difficulties that minorities already have obtaining work, education, and a better quality of life—thus perpetuating the pattern of criminal behavior. Ultimately, Harcourt shows how the perceived success of actuarial methods has begun to distort our very conception of just punishment and to obscure alternate visions of social order. In place of the actuarial, he proposes instead a turn to randomization in punishment and policing. The presumption, Harcourt concludes, should be against prediction.

Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability

Author : Andrea Deghi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513525832
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability by : Andrea Deghi

Download or read book Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability written by Andrea Deghi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-17 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.

Department of Health departmental report 2007

Author : Great Britain: Department of Health
Publisher : The Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 0101709323
Total Pages : 243 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Department of Health departmental report 2007 by : Great Britain: Department of Health

Download or read book Department of Health departmental report 2007 written by Great Britain: Department of Health and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2007-05-17 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dated May 2007. On cover: Departmental report. The health and personal social services programmes

Predicting Ecosystem Risk

Author : John Cairns
Publisher : Princeton Scientific Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 376 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Ecosystem Risk by : John Cairns

Download or read book Predicting Ecosystem Risk written by John Cairns and published by Princeton Scientific Publishing. This book was released on 1992 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

International Handbook of Suicide Prevention

Author : Rory C. O'Connor
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119996147
Total Pages : 947 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis International Handbook of Suicide Prevention by : Rory C. O'Connor

Download or read book International Handbook of Suicide Prevention written by Rory C. O'Connor and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-06-01 with total page 947 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The International Handbook of Suicide Prevention showcases the latest cutting-edge research from the world’s leading authorities, and highlights policy and practice implications for the prevention of suicide. Brings together the world’s leading authorities on suicidal behaviour, renowned for their suicide prevention research, policy and practice Addresses the key questions of why people attempt suicide, the best interventions, treatments and care for those at risk, and the key international challenges in trying to prevent suicide Describes up-to-date, theoretically-derived and evidence-based research and practice from across the globe, which will have implications across countries, cultures and the lifespan

Clinical Epidemiology

Author : Robert H. Fletcher
Publisher : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
ISBN 13 : 1451144474
Total Pages : 275 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (511 download)

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Book Synopsis Clinical Epidemiology by : Robert H. Fletcher

Download or read book Clinical Epidemiology written by Robert H. Fletcher and published by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. This book was released on 2012-12-17 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its Fifth Edition, Clinical Epidemiology: The Essentials is a comprehensive, concise, and clinically oriented introduction to the subject of epidemiology. Written by expert educators, this text introduces students to the principles of evidence-based medicine that will help them develop and apply methods of clinical observation in order to form accurate conclusions. The Fifth Edition includes more complete coverage of systematic reviews and knowledge management, as well as other key topics such as abnormality, diagnosis, frequency and risk, prognosis, treatment, prevention, chance, studying cases and cause.

Computational Methods in Predicting Complex Disease Associated Genes and Environmental Factors

Author : Yudong Cai
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 2889668754
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (896 download)

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Book Synopsis Computational Methods in Predicting Complex Disease Associated Genes and Environmental Factors by : Yudong Cai

Download or read book Computational Methods in Predicting Complex Disease Associated Genes and Environmental Factors written by Yudong Cai and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-06-11 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Risk Assessment and Evaluation of Predictions

Author : Mei-Ling Ting Lee
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461489814
Total Pages : 446 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (614 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Assessment and Evaluation of Predictions by : Mei-Ling Ting Lee

Download or read book Risk Assessment and Evaluation of Predictions written by Mei-Ling Ting Lee and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-11 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Methods of risk analysis and the outcome of particular evaluations and predictions are covered in detail in this proceedings volume, whose contributions are based on invited presentations from Professor Mei-Ling Ting Lee's 2011 symposium on Risk Analysis and the Evaluation of Predictions. This symposium was held at the University of Maryland in October of 2011. Risk analysis is the science of evaluating health, environmental, and engineering risks resulting from past, current, or anticipated, future activities. The use of these evaluations include to provide information for determining regulatory actions to limit risk, present scientific evidence in legal settings, evaluate products and potential liabilities within private organizations, resolve World Trade disputes amongst nations, and educate the public concerning particular risk issues. Risk analysis is an interdisciplinary science that relies on epidemiology and laboratory studies, collection of exposure and other field data, computer modeling, and related social, economic and communication considerations. In addition, social dimensions of risk are addressed by social scientists.

Artificial Intelligence for Risk Management

Author : Archie Addo
Publisher : Business Expert Press
ISBN 13 : 1949443523
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (494 download)

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Book Synopsis Artificial Intelligence for Risk Management by : Archie Addo

Download or read book Artificial Intelligence for Risk Management written by Archie Addo and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2020-03-13 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Risk Management is about using AI to manage risk in the corporate environment. The content of this work focuses on concepts, principles, and practical applications that are relevant to the corporate and technology environments. The authors introduce AI and discuss the different types, capabilities, and purposes–including challenges. With AI also comes risk. This book defines risk, provides examples, and includes information on the risk-management process. Having a solid knowledge base for an AI project is key and this book will help readers define the knowledge base needed for an AI project by developing and identifying objectives of the risk-knowledge base and knowledge acquisition for risk. This book will help you become a contributor on an AI team and learn how to tell a compelling story with AI to drive business action on risk.

Cardiovascular Care

Author : Louise Quinn
Publisher : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
ISBN 13 : 9781582557045
Total Pages : 516 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (57 download)

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Book Synopsis Cardiovascular Care by : Louise Quinn

Download or read book Cardiovascular Care written by Louise Quinn and published by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. This book was released on 2007-06-25 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This quick-reference handbook presents the principles and practices of cardiovascular care in a clear, concise, easy-to-follow bulleted format enhanced by abundant illustrations and tables. Recurring icons include Red Flag, Age Aware, Discharge Teaching, and Up Close. The book also includes an extensive list of important selected references.

Occupational Health and Safety in the Care and Use of Nonhuman Primates

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309167949
Total Pages : 180 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Occupational Health and Safety in the Care and Use of Nonhuman Primates by : National Research Council

Download or read book Occupational Health and Safety in the Care and Use of Nonhuman Primates written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-06-13 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of occupational health and safety constantly changes, especially as it pertains to biomedical research. New infectious hazards are of particular importance at nonhuman-primate facilities. For example, the discovery that B virus can be transmitted via a splash on a mucous membrane raises new concerns that must be addressed, as does the discovery of the Reston strain of Ebola virus in import quarantine facilities in the U.S. The risk of such infectious hazards is best managed through a flexible and comprehensive Occupational Health and Safety Program (OHSP) that can identify and mitigate potential hazards. Occupational Health and Safety in the Care and Use of Nonhuman Primates is intended as a reference for vivarium managers, veterinarians, researchers, safety professionals, and others who are involved in developing or implementing an OHSP that deals with nonhuman primates. The book lists the important features of an OHSP and provides the tools necessary for informed decision-making in developing an optimal program that meets all particular institutional needs.

Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science

Author : Pieter Kubben
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319997130
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science by : Pieter Kubben

Download or read book Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science written by Pieter Kubben and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-21 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book comprehensively covers the fundamentals of clinical data science, focusing on data collection, modelling and clinical applications. Topics covered in the first section on data collection include: data sources, data at scale (big data), data stewardship (FAIR data) and related privacy concerns. Aspects of predictive modelling using techniques such as classification, regression or clustering, and prediction model validation will be covered in the second section. The third section covers aspects of (mobile) clinical decision support systems, operational excellence and value-based healthcare. Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science is an essential resource for healthcare professionals and IT consultants intending to develop and refine their skills in personalized medicine, using solutions based on large datasets from electronic health records or telemonitoring programmes. The book’s promise is “no math, no code”and will explain the topics in a style that is optimized for a healthcare audience.

Predictive Analytics

Author : Eric Siegel
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119153654
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictive Analytics by : Eric Siegel

Download or read book Predictive Analytics written by Eric Siegel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-12 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a