Predictable Behavior of Security Returns and Tests of Asset Pricing Models

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (225 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictable Behavior of Security Returns and Tests of Asset Pricing Models by : Narasimhan Jegadeesh

Download or read book Predictable Behavior of Security Returns and Tests of Asset Pricing Models written by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Predictable Behavior of Security Returns and Test of Asset Pricing Models

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (57 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictable Behavior of Security Returns and Test of Asset Pricing Models by : Narasimhan Jegadeesh

Download or read book Predictable Behavior of Security Returns and Test of Asset Pricing Models written by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Restrictions on Predictability Implied by Rational Asset Pricing Models

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Restrictions on Predictability Implied by Rational Asset Pricing Models by : Chris Kirby

Download or read book The Restrictions on Predictability Implied by Rational Asset Pricing Models written by Chris Kirby and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article shows how rational asset pricing models restrict the regression-based criteria commonly used to measure return predictability. Specifically, it invokes no arbitrage arguments to show that the intercept, slope coefficients, and R-squared in predictive regressions must take specific values. These restrictions provide a way to directly assess whether the predictability uncovered using regression analysis is consistent with rational pricing. Empirical tests reveal that the returns on the CRSP size deciles are too predictable to be compatible with a number of well-known pricing models. However, the overall pattern of predictability across these portfolios is reasonably consistent with what we would expect under circumstances where predictability is rational.

Asset Pricing Theory

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400830141
Total Pages : 363 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Pricing Theory by : Costis Skiadas

Download or read book Asset Pricing Theory written by Costis Skiadas and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-02-09 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asset Pricing Theory is an advanced textbook for doctoral students and researchers that offers a modern introduction to the theoretical and methodological foundations of competitive asset pricing. Costis Skiadas develops in depth the fundamentals of arbitrage pricing, mean-variance analysis, equilibrium pricing, and optimal consumption/portfolio choice in discrete settings, but with emphasis on geometric and martingale methods that facilitate an effortless transition to the more advanced continuous-time theory. Among the book's many innovations are its use of recursive utility as the benchmark representation of dynamic preferences, and an associated theory of equilibrium pricing and optimal portfolio choice that goes beyond the existing literature. Asset Pricing Theory is complete with extensive exercises at the end of every chapter and comprehensive mathematical appendixes, making this book a self-contained resource for graduate students and academic researchers, as well as mathematically sophisticated practitioners seeking a deeper understanding of concepts and methods on which practical models are built. Covers in depth the modern theoretical foundations of competitive asset pricing and consumption/portfolio choice Uses recursive utility as the benchmark preference representation in dynamic settings Sets the foundations for advanced modeling using geometric arguments and martingale methodology Features self-contained mathematical appendixes Includes extensive end-of-chapter exercises

Empirical Asset Pricing

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262039370
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

The Predictable and Misleading Consequences When Using Periodic Returns in Traditional Tests of the Capital Asset Pricing Model

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Predictable and Misleading Consequences When Using Periodic Returns in Traditional Tests of the Capital Asset Pricing Model by : Carl R. Schwinn

Download or read book The Predictable and Misleading Consequences When Using Periodic Returns in Traditional Tests of the Capital Asset Pricing Model written by Carl R. Schwinn and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper offers a new understanding of the statistical results obtained by Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972) and Miller and Scholes (1972) in their tests of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Numerical examples and simulations are used to illustrate how the empirical results of both papers are what we should expect to observe under the null hypothesis that the CAPM does not hold and the returns, either periodic or continuous, are variable. This paper employs geometric Brownian motion (GBM) as a reasonable first-order approximation for the return generating process to capture the predictable, asymmetrical effects of compounding variable returns. The empirical results of the cross-section and time-series tests in both papers can be explained by the simple mathematical dependence of periodic returns upon the underlying variance of the continuously compounded returns. The numerical examples and simulations reproduce the empirical results by matching the variance of the continuously compounded returns on the market factor in the model of GBM to the variance of the returns on the market portfolio in each sample period, although the securities are not priced in the model to reflect aversion to either beta or the variance of the continuously compounded returns.

Predictability and the Cross-section of Expected Returns

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (119 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictability and the Cross-section of Expected Returns by : Christian Schlag

Download or read book Predictability and the Cross-section of Expected Returns written by Christian Schlag and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test for the ability of such a model to explain the cross-section of expected returns by sorting stocks based on the sensitivity of expected returns to these quantities. Models with only one uncertainty-related state variable, like the habit model or the long-run risks model, cannot pass this test. However, even extensions with more state variables mostly fail. We derive conditions under which models would be able to produce expected return patterns in line with the data and discuss various examples.

Risk Aversion and the Structure of Asset Prices

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Aversion and the Structure of Asset Prices by : Robert Rudolph Grauer

Download or read book Risk Aversion and the Structure of Asset Prices written by Robert Rudolph Grauer and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Stock Return Predictability and Conditional Asset Pricing Models

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Stock Return Predictability and Conditional Asset Pricing Models by : Ane Miren Tamayo

Download or read book Stock Return Predictability and Conditional Asset Pricing Models written by Ane Miren Tamayo and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A Test of the Role of Behavioral Factors for Asset Pricing

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781321964943
Total Pages : 83 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (649 download)

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Book Synopsis A Test of the Role of Behavioral Factors for Asset Pricing by : Lin Sun

Download or read book A Test of the Role of Behavioral Factors for Asset Pricing written by Lin Sun and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theories suggest that both risk and mispricing are associated with commonality in returns, and information associated with this commonality can be used to predict future returns. However, empirically implemented factor pricing models rarely incorporate psychological factors. I propose to augment standard factor models with behavioral factors to capture commonality in mispricing caused by psychological biases. Specifically, I form risk-and-behavioral composite models and examine whether considering jointly both sources of return predictability better explains known return anomalies. I propose two behavioral factors motivated by overconfidence and limited attention, respectively, and show that behavioral factors differ from standard risk factors in several important respects. I find that the risk-and-behavioral composite models outperform both standard models and other recent models and fully explain a number of well-known anomalies, particularly growth-related anomalies. The evidence suggests that behavioral factors play a prominent role in capturing commonality in mispricing and should be incorporated into asset pricing models.

Two Essays on Time-series Patterns in Security Returns

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 234 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Two Essays on Time-series Patterns in Security Returns by : David Kenji Heike

Download or read book Two Essays on Time-series Patterns in Security Returns written by David Kenji Heike and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Predictability Implied by Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis The Predictability Implied by Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models by : Jiun-Lin Chen

Download or read book The Predictability Implied by Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models written by Jiun-Lin Chen and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The consumption-based models have a lack of predictive power for explaining variability of stock returns. This paper examines two well-known models, Campbell and Cochrane (1999)'s habit model and Bansal and Yaron (2004)'s long-run risks model, to see whether they produce a significant power of return predictability. For the habit model, empirical tests reveal that the state variable, the surplus consumption ratio, explains counter-cyclical time-varying expected returns. The long-run risks model also proves to explain that main sources of volatility in price-dividend ratio are a persistent and predictable consumption growth rate and fluctuating economic uncertainty. The models are also tested by following the work of Kirby (1998) whether they can explain the observed return predictability. Both models fail to generate any significant predictive power. The habit model is relatively strong in volatility, which implies that variation in expected excess return is largely attributable to the time-varying risk aversion.

Risk or Mispricing? From the Mouths of Professionals

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk or Mispricing? From the Mouths of Professionals by : Robert J. Bloomfield

Download or read book Risk or Mispricing? From the Mouths of Professionals written by Robert J. Bloomfield and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most tests of asset pricing models rely on realized returns as a proxy for expected returns, and cannot determine whether security characteristics are associated with returns because they affect risk or because they reflect mispricing. This paper avoids these problems by conducting two experiments in which we directly elicit how Beta, Market-to-Book ratios and firm size affect the returns expected by Wall Street professionals, and how those factors affect perceived risk and mispricing. Consistent with traditional asset pricing models, professionals expect firms with higher Betas to be riskier investments and generate higher returns. Consistent with behavioral models, professionals expect firms with higher Market-to-Book ratios to be over-priced (and riskier). Professionals expect large firms to be less risky, but do not view firm size to be a sign of mispricing.

Learning, Asset-Pricing Tests, and Market Efficiency

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Learning, Asset-Pricing Tests, and Market Efficiency by : Jonathan Lewellen

Download or read book Learning, Asset-Pricing Tests, and Market Efficiency written by Jonathan Lewellen and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the asset-pricing implications of parameter uncertainty. We show that, when investors must learn about expected cash flows, empirical tests can find patterns in the data that differ from those perceived by rational investors. Returns might appear predictable to an econometrician, or appear to deviate from the Capital Asset Pricing Model, but investors can neither perceive nor exploit this predictability. Returns may also appear excessively volatile even though prices react efficiently to cash-flow news. We conclude that parameter uncertainty can be important for characterizing and testing market efficiency.

Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model to Predict Security Returns

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (248 download)

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Book Synopsis Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model to Predict Security Returns by : R. Richardson Pettit

Download or read book Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model to Predict Security Returns written by R. Richardson Pettit and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Stock Return Predictability and Asset Pricing Models

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Stock Return Predictability and Asset Pricing Models by : Doron Avramov

Download or read book Stock Return Predictability and Asset Pricing Models written by Doron Avramov and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops an asset allocation framework that incorporates prior beliefs about the extent of stock return predictability explained by asset pricing models. We find that when prior beliefs allow even minor deviations from pricing model implications, the resulting asset allocations depart considerably from and substantially outperform allocations dictated by either the underlying models or the sample evidence on return predictability. Under a wide range of beliefs about model pricing abilities, asset allocations based on conditional models outperform their unconditional counterparts that exclude return predictability.

Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Changing Expectations

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (287 download)

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Book Synopsis Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Changing Expectations by : Wayne Ferson

Download or read book Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Changing Expectations written by Wayne Ferson and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: