Practical A B Testing

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Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments

Author : Ron Kohavi
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108590098
Total Pages : 291 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments by : Ron Kohavi

Download or read book Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments written by Ron Kohavi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-04-02 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Getting numbers is easy; getting numbers you can trust is hard. This practical guide by experimentation leaders at Google, LinkedIn, and Microsoft will teach you how to accelerate innovation using trustworthy online controlled experiments, or A/B tests. Based on practical experiences at companies that each run more than 20,000 controlled experiments a year, the authors share examples, pitfalls, and advice for students and industry professionals getting started with experiments, plus deeper dives into advanced topics for practitioners who want to improve the way they make data-driven decisions. Learn how to • Use the scientific method to evaluate hypotheses using controlled experiments • Define key metrics and ideally an Overall Evaluation Criterion • Test for trustworthiness of the results and alert experimenters to violated assumptions • Build a scalable platform that lowers the marginal cost of experiments close to zero • Avoid pitfalls like carryover effects and Twyman's law • Understand how statistical issues play out in practice.

Statistical Methods in Online A/B Testing

Author : Georgi Zdravkov Georgiev
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781694079725
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (797 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Methods in Online A/B Testing by : Georgi Zdravkov Georgiev

Download or read book Statistical Methods in Online A/B Testing written by Georgi Zdravkov Georgiev and published by . This book was released on 2019-09-28 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Statistical Methods in Online A/B Testing" is a comprehensive guide to statistics in online controlled experiments, a.k.a. A/B tests, that tackles the difficult matter of statistical inference in a way accessible to readers with little to no prior experience with it. Each concept is built from the ground up, explained thoroughly, and illustrated with practical examples from website testing. The presentation is straight to the point and practically oriented so you can apply the takeaways in your daily work.It is a must-read for anyone looking for a deep understanding of how to make data-driven business decisions through experimentation: conversion rate optimizers, product managers, growth experts, data analysts, marketing managers, experts in user experience and design. The new research presented and the fresh perspective on how to apply statistics and experimentation to achieve business goals make for an interesting read even for experienced statisticians.The book deals with scientific methods, but their introductions and explanations are grounded in the business goals they help achieve, such as innovating under controlled risk, and estimating the effect of proposed business actions before committing to them. While the book doesn't shy away from math and formulas, it is to the extent to which these are essential for understanding and applying the underlying concepts. The presentation is friendly to readers with little to no prior knowledge in statistics. Artificial and impractical examples like dice rolling and betting are absent, instead statistical concepts are illustrated through scenarios which might well be mistaken with the last couple of A/B tests you managed.This book also doesn't shy away from the fact that much of the current statistical theory and practice in online A/B testing is misguided, misinterpreted, or misapplied. It also addresses the issue of blind copying of scientific applications without due consideration of the unique features of online business, which is widespread. The book will help you avoid these malpractices by explicitly pointing out frequent mistakes, while also helping you align your usage of statistics and experimentation with any business goals you might want to pursue.

A / B Testing

Author : Dan Siroker
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118792416
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis A / B Testing by : Dan Siroker

Download or read book A / B Testing written by Dan Siroker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-07-27 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How Your Business Can Use the Science That Helped Win the White House The average conversion rate—the rate at which visitors convert into customers—across the web is only 2%. That means it's likely that 98% of visitors to your website won't end up converting into customers. What's the solution? A/B testing. A/B testing is the simple idea of showing several different versions of a web page to live traffic, and then measuring the effect each version has on visitors. Using A/B testing, companies can improve the effectiveness of their marketing and user experience and, in doing so, can sometimes double or triple their conversion rates. Testing has been fundamental in driving the success of Google, Amazon, Netflix, and other top tech companies. Even Barack Obama and Mitt Romney had dedicated teams A/B testing their campaign websites during the 2012 Presidential race. In the past, marketing teams were unable to unleash the power of A/B testing because it required costly engineering and IT resources. Today, a new generation of technology that enables marketers to run A/B tests without depending on engineers is emerging and quickly becoming one of the most powerful tools for making data-driven decisions. Authors Dan Siroker and Pete Koomen are cofounders of Optimizely, the leading A/B testing platform used by more than 5,000 organizations across the world. A/B Testing: The Most Powerful Way to Turn Clicks Into Customers offers best practices and lessons learned from more than 300,000 experiments run by Optimizely customers. You'll learn: What to test How to choose the testing solution that's right for your organization How to assemble an A/B testing dream team How to create personalized experiences for every visitor And much more Marketers and web professionals will become obsolete if they don't embrace a data-driven approach to decision making. This book shows you how, no matter your technical expertise.

Designing with Data

Author : Rochelle King
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 1449334954
Total Pages : 275 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (493 download)

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Book Synopsis Designing with Data by : Rochelle King

Download or read book Designing with Data written by Rochelle King and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2017-03-29 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the surface, design practices and data science may not seem like obvious partners. But these disciplines actually work toward the same goal, helping designers and product managers understand users so they can craft elegant digital experiences. While data can enhance design, design can bring deeper meaning to data. This practical guide shows you how to conduct data-driven A/B testing for making design decisions on everything from small tweaks to large-scale UX concepts. Complete with real-world examples, this book shows you how to make data-driven design part of your product design workflow. Understand the relationship between data, business, and design Get a firm grounding in data, data types, and components of A/B testing Use an experimentation framework to define opportunities, formulate hypotheses, and test different options Create hypotheses that connect to key metrics and business goals Design proposed solutions for hypotheses that are most promising Interpret the results of an A/B test and determine your next move

Experimentation for Engineers

Author : David Sweet
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1638356904
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (383 download)

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Book Synopsis Experimentation for Engineers by : David Sweet

Download or read book Experimentation for Engineers written by David Sweet and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2023-03-21 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Optimize the performance of your systems with practical experiments used by engineers in the world’s most competitive industries. In Experimentation for Engineers: From A/B testing to Bayesian optimization you will learn how to: Design, run, and analyze an A/B test Break the "feedback loops" caused by periodic retraining of ML models Increase experimentation rate with multi-armed bandits Tune multiple parameters experimentally with Bayesian optimization Clearly define business metrics used for decision-making Identify and avoid the common pitfalls of experimentation Experimentation for Engineers: From A/B testing to Bayesian optimization is a toolbox of techniques for evaluating new features and fine-tuning parameters. You’ll start with a deep dive into methods like A/B testing, and then graduate to advanced techniques used to measure performance in industries such as finance and social media. Learn how to evaluate the changes you make to your system and ensure that your testing doesn’t undermine revenue or other business metrics. By the time you’re done, you’ll be able to seamlessly deploy experiments in production while avoiding common pitfalls. About the technology Does my software really work? Did my changes make things better or worse? Should I trade features for performance? Experimentation is the only way to answer questions like these. This unique book reveals sophisticated experimentation practices developed and proven in the world’s most competitive industries that will help you enhance machine learning systems, software applications, and quantitative trading solutions. About the book Experimentation for Engineers: From A/B testing to Bayesian optimization delivers a toolbox of processes for optimizing software systems. You’ll start by learning the limits of A/B testing, and then graduate to advanced experimentation strategies that take advantage of machine learning and probabilistic methods. The skills you’ll master in this practical guide will help you minimize the costs of experimentation and quickly reveal which approaches and features deliver the best business results. What's inside Design, run, and analyze an A/B test Break the “feedback loops” caused by periodic retraining of ML models Increase experimentation rate with multi-armed bandits Tune multiple parameters experimentally with Bayesian optimization About the reader For ML and software engineers looking to extract the most value from their systems. Examples in Python and NumPy. About the author David Sweet has worked as a quantitative trader at GETCO and a machine learning engineer at Instagram. He teaches in the AI and Data Science master's programs at Yeshiva University. Table of Contents 1 Optimizing systems by experiment 2 A/B testing: Evaluating a modification to your system 3 Multi-armed bandits: Maximizing business metrics while experimenting 4 Response surface methodology: Optimizing continuous parameters 5 Contextual bandits: Making targeted decisions 6 Bayesian optimization: Automating experimental optimization 7 Managing business metrics 8 Practical considerations

Fundamentals of A/B Testing

Author : Alex Dombrowski
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 183 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (183 download)

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Book Synopsis Fundamentals of A/B Testing by : Alex Dombrowski

Download or read book Fundamentals of A/B Testing written by Alex Dombrowski and published by . This book was released on 2020-03-22 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The A/B Testing mindset at a company evolves through four stages. Intuition: In the beginning, intuition drives decisions. The company acknowledges the user, but does not solicit feedback. Data is sparse. Data driven: Decision makers use data to supplement their intuition in cases when they are less confident. The data lacks richness and methods for processing data are crude. Causal statements are drawn from situations that do not warrant them. Data is not respected. A/B Testing: The company unearths the practice of A/B Testing and embarks on the well-trodden path of successful companies. A/B Testing gains followers, however infrastructure is nascent and statistical methods are questionable. The goal is to get a number, not necessarily a correct number. The thought is that a number from an A/B Test must be trustworthy because, well, it's from an A/B Test! Sound A/B Testing: The company is educated on the fundamentals of A/B Testing. The company adopts sounds practices, produces trustworthy numbers, and makes informed go/no-go decisions. Regardless where your company is on the journey, this book will guide you to the last stage.

Experimentation Works

Author : Stefan H. Thomke
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1633697118
Total Pages : 266 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (336 download)

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Book Synopsis Experimentation Works by : Stefan H. Thomke

Download or read book Experimentation Works written by Stefan H. Thomke and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2020-02-18 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Don't fly blind. See how the power of experiments works for you. When it comes to improving customer experiences, trying out new business models, or developing new products, even the most experienced managers often get it wrong. They discover that intuition, experience, and big data alone don't work. What does? Running disciplined business experiments. And what if companies roll out new products or introduce new customer experiences without running these experiments? They fly blind. That's what Harvard Business School professor Stefan Thomke shows in this rigorously researched and eye-opening book. It guides you through best practices in business experimentation, illustrates how these practices work at leading companies, and answers some fundamental questions: What makes a good experiment? How do you test in online and brick-and-mortar businesses? In B2B and B2C? How do you build an experimentation culture? Also, best practice means running many experiments. Indeed, some hugely successful companies, such as Amazon, Booking.com, and Microsoft, run tens of thousands of controlled experiments annually, engaging millions of users. Thomke shows us how these and many other organizations prove that experimentation provides significant competitive advantage. How can managers create this capability at their own companies? Essential is developing an experimentation organization that prizes the science of testing and puts the discipline of experimentation at the center of its innovation process. While it once took companies years to develop the tools for such large-scale experiments, advances in technology have put these tools at the fingertips of almost any business professional. By combining the power of software and the rigor of controlled experiments, today's managers can make better decisions, create magical customer experiences, and generate big financial returns. Experimentation Works is your guidebook to a truly new way of thinking and innovating.

Bandit Algorithms for Website Optimization

Author : John Myles White
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 1449341586
Total Pages : 88 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (493 download)

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Book Synopsis Bandit Algorithms for Website Optimization by : John Myles White

Download or read book Bandit Algorithms for Website Optimization written by John Myles White and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2012-12-10 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When looking for ways to improve your website, how do you decide which changes to make? And which changes to keep? This concise book shows you how to use Multiarmed Bandit algorithms to measure the real-world value of any modifications you make to your site. Author John Myles White shows you how this powerful class of algorithms can help you boost website traffic, convert visitors to customers, and increase many other measures of success. This is the first developer-focused book on bandit algorithms, which were previously described only in research papers. You’ll quickly learn the benefits of several simple algorithms—including the epsilon-Greedy, Softmax, and Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithms—by working through code examples written in Python, which you can easily adapt for deployment on your own website. Learn the basics of A/B testing—and recognize when it’s better to use bandit algorithms Develop a unit testing framework for debugging bandit algorithms Get additional code examples written in Julia, Ruby, and JavaScript with supplemental online materials

Experiment!

Author : Colin McFarland
Publisher : New Riders
ISBN 13 : 0133040089
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Experiment! by : Colin McFarland

Download or read book Experiment! written by Colin McFarland and published by New Riders. This book was released on 2012-08-17 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Testing is a surefire way to dramatically improve your website’s conversion rate and increase revenue. When you run experiments with changes to design or content, you’ll quickly discover which changes better motivate your users to take action. This book shows how to learn from your customers’ behavior and decisions, and how their responses reveal the strengths and weaknesses of your site. It will show you how to make websites that work harder and convert better. Experiment! will inspire you to challenge assumptions and start experimenting right now. You will: Learn how to approach experiments to improve conversion Understand the various methods of testing including A/B and multivariate Discover experiment ideas, and go beyond optimization to innovation Recognize the UX and design implications of experimenting Learn to analyze data and deliver results Experimenting changes the way you think about design and the way you work. It helps prevent the loudest voice from deciding direction; instead, through an experiment, you’ll ask the most important voices--your customers--“What do you think?”

The Innovator's Hypothesis

Author : Michael Schrage
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262323052
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis The Innovator's Hypothesis by : Michael Schrage

Download or read book The Innovator's Hypothesis written by Michael Schrage and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-09-12 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Achieving faster, better, cheaper, and more creative innovation outcomes with the 5x5 framework: 5 people, 5 days, 5 experiments, $5,000, and 5 weeks What is the best way for a company to innovate? Advice recommending “innovation vacations” and the luxury of failure may be wonderful for organizations with time to spend and money to waste. The Innovator’s Hypothesis addresses the innovation priorities of companies that live in the real world of limits. Michael Schrage advocates a cultural and strategic shift: small teams, collaboratively—and competitively—crafting business experiments that make top management sit up and take notice. He introduces the 5x5 framework: giving diverse teams of five people up to five days to come up with portfolios of five business experiments costing no more than $5,000 each and taking no longer than five weeks to run. Successful 5x5s, Schrage shows, make people more effective innovators, and more effective innovators mean more effective innovations.

Smart Persuasion

Author : Philippe AIMÉ
Publisher : Convertize
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Smart Persuasion by : Philippe AIMÉ

Download or read book Smart Persuasion written by Philippe AIMÉ and published by Convertize. This book was released on 2019-03-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conversions begin in the brain. Every purchase starts with a decision, and every decision is shaped by consumer psychology. This book explains how mental shortcuts (cognitive biases) affect your customers' decision making and shows you how to be more persuasive online. Philippe Aimé and Jochen Grünbeck are optimisation addicts and have been at the forefront of digital marketing since the beginning. Inspired by behavioural economists like Daniel Kahneman, Dan Ariely and Richard Thaler, the techniques described in Smart Persuasion leverage powerful decision-making biases to make marketing more effective. Alongside these behavioural insights, Smart Persuasion incorporates research from marketing experts such as Jonah Berger, Robert Cialdini and Roger Dooley. Principles relating to attention and perception, as well as the cognitive effects that make consumers predictably irrational, are distilled into concrete website optimisation strategies. Drawing from hundreds of unique studies, Smart Persuasion lists proven effects such as Anchoring and Framing. Each one is illustrated with case-studies, examples and ideas that you can apply immediately. Using the persuasive strategies outlined in this book will allow you to influence consumers more effectively, unlocking your website's potential. All profits from the sale of this book help provide educational resources for children in Africa.

You Should Test That

Author : Chris Goward
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118463838
Total Pages : 389 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (184 download)

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Book Synopsis You Should Test That by : Chris Goward

Download or read book You Should Test That written by Chris Goward and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-12-21 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn how to convert website visitors into customers Part science and part art, conversion optimization is designed to turn visitors into customers. Carefully developed testing procedures are necessary to help you fine-tune images, headlines, navigation, colors, buttons, and every other element, creating a website that encourages visitors to take the action you seek. This book guides you through creating an optimization strategy that supports your business goals, using appropriate analytics tools, generating quality testing ideas, running online experiments, and making the adjustments that work. Conversion optimization is part science and part art; this guide provides step-by-step guidance to help you optimize your website for maximum conversion rates Explains how to analyze data, prioritize experiment opportunities, and choose the right testing methods Helps you learn what to adjust, how to do it, and how to analyze the results Features hands-on exercises, case studies, and a full-color insert reinforcing key tactics Author has used these techniques to assist Fortune 500 clients You Should Test That explains both the "why" and the "how" of conversion optimization, helping you maximize the value of your website.

Landing Page Optimization

Author : Tim Ash
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118234537
Total Pages : 480 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis Landing Page Optimization by : Tim Ash

Download or read book Landing Page Optimization written by Tim Ash and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-29 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fully updated guide to making your landing pages profitable Effective Internet marketing requires that you test and optimize your landing pages to maximize exposure and conversion rate. This second edition of a bestselling guide to landing page optimization includes case studies with before-and-after results as well as new information on web site usability. It covers how to prepare all types of content for testing, how to interpret results, recognize the seven common design mistakes, and much more. Included is a gift card for Google AdWords. Features fully updated information and case studies on landing page optimization Shows how to use Google's Website Optimizer tool, what to test and how to prepare your site for testing, the pros and cons of different test strategies, how to interpret results, and common site design mistakes Provides a step-by-step implementation plan and advice on getting support and resources Landing Page Optimization, Second Edition is a comprehensive guide to increasing conversions and improving profits.

Website Optimization

Author : Rich Page
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 111824060X
Total Pages : 495 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis Website Optimization by : Rich Page

Download or read book Website Optimization written by Rich Page and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-04-23 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Step-by-step instructions for executing a website testing and optimization plan Website optimization is can be an overwhelming endeavor due to the fact that it encompasses so many strategic and technical issues. However, this hands-on, task-based book demystifies this potentially intimidating topic by offering smart, practical, and tested instructions for developing, implementing, managing, and tracking website optimization efforts. After you learn how to establish an optimization framework, you then dive into learning how to develop a plan, test appropriately and accurately, interpret the results, and optimize in order to maximize conversion rates and improve profits. Zeroes in on fundamentals such as understanding key metrics, choosing analytics tools, researching visitors and their onsite behavior, and crafting a plan for what to test and optimize Walks you through testing and optimizing specific web pages including the homepage, entry and exit pages, product and pricing pages, as well as the shopping cart and check-out process Guides you through important optimization areas such as optimizing text and images Addresses advanced topics including paid search optimization, Facebook fan page optimization, rich media, and more Includes a companion website that features expanded examples, additional resources, tool reviews, and other related information Full of interesting case studies and helpful examples drawn from the author's own experience, Website Optimization: An Hour a Day is the complete solution for anyone who wants to get the best possible results from their web page.

Always Be Testing

Author : Bryan Eisenberg
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470612665
Total Pages : 476 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)

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Book Synopsis Always Be Testing by : Bryan Eisenberg

Download or read book Always Be Testing written by Bryan Eisenberg and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-12-30 with total page 476 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stop guessing, start testing, and enjoy greater success with your website. If you’re looking for more leads, sales, and profit from your website, then look no further than this expert guide to Google’s free A/B and multivariate website testing tool, Google Website Optimizer. Recognized online marketing guru and New York Times bestselling author, Bryan Eisenberg, and his chief scientist, John Quarto-vonTivadar, show you how to test and tune your site to get more visitors to contact you, buy from you, subscribe to your services, or take profitable actions on your site. This practical and easy-to-follow reference will help you: Develop a testing framework to meet your goals and objectives Improve your website and move more of your customers to action Select and categorize your products and services with a customer-centric view Optimize your landing pages and create copy that sells Choose the best test for a given application Reap the fullest benefits from your testing experience Increase conversions with over 250 testing ideas Take the guesswork out of your online marketing efforts. Let Always Be Testing: The Complete Guide to Google Website Optimizer show you why you should test, how to test, and what to test on your site, and ultimately, help you discover what is best for your site and your bottom line.

How We Test Software at Microsoft

Author : Alan Page
Publisher : Microsoft Press
ISBN 13 : 0735638314
Total Pages : 592 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (356 download)

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Book Synopsis How We Test Software at Microsoft by : Alan Page

Download or read book How We Test Software at Microsoft written by Alan Page and published by Microsoft Press. This book was released on 2008-12-10 with total page 592 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It may surprise you to learn that Microsoft employs as many software testers as developers. Less surprising is the emphasis the company places on the testing discipline—and its role in managing quality across a diverse, 150+ product portfolio. This book—written by three of Microsoft’s most prominent test professionals—shares the best practices, tools, and systems used by the company’s 9,000-strong corps of testers. Learn how your colleagues at Microsoft design and manage testing, their approach to training and career development, and what challenges they see ahead. Most important, you’ll get practical insights you can apply for better results in your organization. Discover how to: Design effective tests and run them throughout the product lifecycle Minimize cost and risk with functional tests, and know when to apply structural techniques Measure code complexity to identify bugs and potential maintenance issues Use models to generate test cases, surface unexpected application behavior, and manage risk Know when to employ automated tests, design them for long-term use, and plug into an automation infrastructure Review the hallmarks of great testers—and the tools they use to run tests, probe systems, and track progress efficiently Explore the challenges of testing services vs. shrink-wrapped software

Forecasting: principles and practice

Author : Rob J Hyndman
Publisher : OTexts
ISBN 13 : 0987507117
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (875 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman

Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.