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Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures

Author : Michael F. Oppenheimer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199397104
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (993 download)

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Book Synopsis Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures by : Michael F. Oppenheimer

Download or read book Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures written by Michael F. Oppenheimer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China, Syria, and the Iran nuclear crisis. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.

Vedtægt (i Medfør Af Lov Af 29. Marts 1924) Om Beværtning, Gæstgiveri M. M. for Storehedinge Kommune

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (463 download)

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Book Synopsis Vedtægt (i Medfør Af Lov Af 29. Marts 1924) Om Beværtning, Gæstgiveri M. M. for Storehedinge Kommune by :

Download or read book Vedtægt (i Medfør Af Lov Af 29. Marts 1924) Om Beværtning, Gæstgiveri M. M. for Storehedinge Kommune written by and published by . This book was released on 1912 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures

Author : Michael F. Oppenheimer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199397090
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (993 download)

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Book Synopsis Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures by : Michael F. Oppenheimer

Download or read book Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures written by Michael F. Oppenheimer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China and Syria. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.

The Future of War

Author : Lawrence Freedman
Publisher : PublicAffairs
ISBN 13 : 1610393066
Total Pages : 503 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis The Future of War by : Lawrence Freedman

Download or read book The Future of War written by Lawrence Freedman and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2017-10-10 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An award-winning military historian, professor, and political adviser delivers the definitive story of warfare in all its guises and applications, showing what has driven and continues to drive this uniquely human form of political violence. Questions about the future of war are a regular feature of political debate, strategic analysis, and popular fiction. Where should we look for new dangers? What cunning plans might an aggressor have in mind? What are the best forms of defense? How might peace be preserved or conflict resolved? From the French rout at Sedan in 1870 to the relentless contemporary insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, Lawrence Freedman, a world-renowned military thinker, reveals how most claims from the military futurists are wrong. But they remain influential nonetheless. Freedman shows how those who have imagined future war have often had an idealized notion of it as confined, brief, and decisive, and have regularly taken insufficient account of the possibility of long wars-hence the stubborn persistence of the idea of a knockout blow, whether through a dashing land offensive, nuclear first strike, or cyberattack. He also notes the lack of attention paid to civil wars until the West began to intervene in them during the 1990s, and how the boundaries between peace and war, between the military, the civilian, and the criminal are becoming increasingly blurred. Freedman's account of a century and a half of warfare and the (often misconceived) thinking that precedes war is a challenge to hawks and doves alike, and puts current strategic thinking into a bracing historical perspective.

The Pivotal Generation

Author : Henry Shue
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691226261
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis The Pivotal Generation by : Henry Shue

Download or read book The Pivotal Generation written by Henry Shue and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2024-08-20 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An eminent philosopher explains why we owe it to future generations to take immediate action on global warming Climate change is the supreme challenge of our time. Yet despite growing international recognition of the unfolding catastrophe, global carbon emissions continue to rise, hitting an all-time high in 2019. Unless humanity rapidly transitions to renewable energy, it may be too late to stop irreversible ecological damage. In The Pivotal Generation, renowned political philosopher Henry Shue makes an impassioned case for taking immediate, radical action to combat global warming. Shue grounds his argument in a rigorous philosophical analysis of climate change’s moral implications. Unlike previous generations, which didn’t fully understand the danger of burning carbon, we have the knowledge to comprehend and control rising carbon dioxide levels. And unlike future generations, we still have time to mitigate the worst effects of global warming. This generation has the power, and thus the responsibility, to save the planet. Shirking that responsibility only leaves the next generation with an even heavier burden—one they may find impossible to bear. Written in direct, accessible language, The Pivotal Generation approaches the latest scientific research with a singular moral clarity. It’s an urgently needed call to action for anyone concerned about the planet’s future.

Contest for the Indo-Pacific

Author : Rory Medcalf
Publisher : La Trobe University Press
ISBN 13 : 1743821042
Total Pages : 363 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (438 download)

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Book Synopsis Contest for the Indo-Pacific by : Rory Medcalf

Download or read book Contest for the Indo-Pacific written by Rory Medcalf and published by La Trobe University Press. This book was released on 2022-01-31 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The definitive guide to the world's most contested region Updated edition covering the strategic impacts of Covid-19, China's economic coercion against Australia, the Afghanistan withdrawal, Joe Biden, the Quad and US-China rivalry. The Indo-Pacific is both a place and an idea. It is the region central to global prosperity and security. It is also a metaphor for collective action. If diplomacy fails, it will be the theatre of the first general war since 1945. But if its future can be secured, the Indo-Pacific will flourish as a shared space, the centre of gravity in a connected world. What we call different parts of the world - Asia, Europe, the Middle East - seems innocuous. But the name of a region is totemic- a mental map that guides the decisions of leaders and the story of international order, war and peace. In recent years, the label 'Indo-Pacific' has gained wide use, including among the leaders of the United States, India, Japan, Australia, Indonesia and France. But what does it really mean? Written by a recognised expert and regional policy insider, Contest for the Indo-Pacific is the definitive guide to tensions in the region. It deftly weaves together history, geopolitics, cartography, military strategy, economics, games and propaganda to address a vital question- how can China's dominance be prevented without war? 'The complexities of our region can easily bewilder those used to the Manichaean simplicity of the Cold War. Rory Medcalf's book is an elegant, keenly insightful tour of the Indo-Pacific's strategic horizon.' -Malcolm Turnbull

Platforms and Cultural Production

Author : Thomas Poell
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1509540520
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (95 download)

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Book Synopsis Platforms and Cultural Production by : Thomas Poell

Download or read book Platforms and Cultural Production written by Thomas Poell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-10-14 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The widespread uptake of digital platforms – from YouTube and Instagram to Twitch and TikTok – is reconfiguring cultural production in profound, complex, and highly uneven ways. Longstanding media industries are experiencing tremendous upheaval, while new industrial formations – live-streaming, social media influencing, and podcasting, among others – are evolving at breakneck speed. Poell, Nieborg, and Duffy explore both the processes and the implications of platformization across the cultural industries, identifying key changes in markets, infrastructures, and governance at play in this ongoing transformation, as well as pivotal shifts in the practices of labor, creativity, and democracy. The authors foreground three particular industries – news, gaming, and social media creation – and also draw upon examples from music, advertising, and more. Diverse in its geographic scope, Platforms and Cultural Production builds on the latest research and accounts from across North America, Western Europe, Southeast Asia, and China to reveal crucial differences and surprising parallels in the trajectories of platformization across the globe. Offering a novel conceptual framework grounded in illuminating case studies, this book is essential for students, scholars, policymakers, and practitioners seeking to understand how the institutions and practices of cultural production are transforming – and what the stakes are for understanding platform power.

Pivot Point

Author : Kasie West
Publisher : Harper Collins
ISBN 13 : 0062117408
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (621 download)

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Book Synopsis Pivot Point by : Kasie West

Download or read book Pivot Point written by Kasie West and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2013-02-12 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Perfect for fans of Sliding Doors, Kasie West's riveting novel Pivot Point follows a girl with the power to see her potential futures. Addison Coleman's life is one big "What if?" As a Searcher, a special type of clairvoyant, whenever Addie is faced with a choice, she is able to look into the future and see both outcomes. So when her parents tell her they are getting a divorce and she has to pick who she wants to live with, a Search has never been more important. In one future Addie is living with her mom in the life she's always known and is being pursued by the most popular guy in school. In the other she is the new girl in school, where she falls for a cute, quiet artist. Then Addie finds herself drawn into a murder investigation, and her fate takes a darker turn. With so much to lose in either future, Addie must decide which reality she's willing to live through . . . and who she's willing to live without.

Monsoon

Author : Robert D. Kaplan
Publisher : Random House Trade Paperbacks
ISBN 13 : 0812979206
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Monsoon by : Robert D. Kaplan

Download or read book Monsoon written by Robert D. Kaplan and published by Random House Trade Paperbacks. This book was released on 2011-09-13 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the world maps common in America, the Western Hemisphere lies front and center, while the Indian Ocean region all but disappears. This convention reveals the geopolitical focus of the now-departed twentieth century, but in the twenty-first century that focus will fundamentally change. In this pivotal examination of the countries known as “Monsoon Asia”—which include India, Pakistan, China, Indonesia, Burma, Oman, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Tanzania—bestselling author Robert D. Kaplan shows how crucial this dynamic area has become to American power. It is here that the fight for democracy, energy independence, and religious freedom will be lost or won, and it is here that American foreign policy must concentrate if the United States is to remain relevant in an ever-changing world. From the Horn of Africa to the Indonesian archipelago and beyond, Kaplan exposes the effects of population growth, climate change, and extremist politics on this unstable region, demonstrating why Americans can no longer afford to ignore this important area of the world.

China's Economic Transition, 1978-2000 -- an Alternative Institutional Analysis

Author : Stanley Zhao-xiong Yang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 824 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis China's Economic Transition, 1978-2000 -- an Alternative Institutional Analysis by : Stanley Zhao-xiong Yang

Download or read book China's Economic Transition, 1978-2000 -- an Alternative Institutional Analysis written by Stanley Zhao-xiong Yang and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 824 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A History of Knowledge

Author : Charles Van Doren
Publisher : Ballantine Books
ISBN 13 : 0345373162
Total Pages : 449 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (453 download)

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Book Synopsis A History of Knowledge by : Charles Van Doren

Download or read book A History of Knowledge written by Charles Van Doren and published by Ballantine Books. This book was released on 1992-03-17 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A one-voume reference to the history of ideas that is a compendium of everything that humankind has thought, invented, created, considered, and perfected from the beginning of civilization into the twenty-first century. Massive in its scope, and yet totally accessible, A HISTORY OF KNOWLEDGE covers not only all the great theories and discoveries of the human race, but also explores the social conditions, political climates, and individual men and women of genius that brought ideas to fruition throughout history. "Crystal clear and concise...Explains how humankind got to know what it knows." Clifton Fadiman Selected by the Book-of-the-Month Club and the History Book Club

What We Owe the Future

Author : William MacAskill
Publisher : Basic Books
ISBN 13 : 1541618637
Total Pages : 423 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (416 download)

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Book Synopsis What We Owe the Future by : William MacAskill

Download or read book What We Owe the Future written by William MacAskill and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2022-08-16 with total page 423 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Instant New York Times Bestseller “This book will change your sense of how grand the sweep of human history could be, where you fit into it, and how much you could do to change it for the better. It's as simple, and as ambitious, as that.” —Ezra Klein An Oxford philosopher makes the case for “longtermism” — that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time. The fate of the world is in our hands. Humanity’s written history spans only five thousand years. Our yet-unwritten future could last for millions more — or it could end tomorrow. Astonishing numbers of people could lead lives of great happiness or unimaginable suffering, or never live at all, depending on what we choose to do today. In What We Owe The Future, philosopher William MacAskill argues for longtermism, that idea that positively influencing the distant future is a key moral priority of our time. From this perspective, it’s not enough to reverse climate change or avert the next pandemic. We must ensure that civilization would rebound if it collapsed; counter the end of moral progress; and prepare for a planet where the smartest beings are digital, not human. If we make wise choices today, our grandchildren’s grandchildren will thrive, knowing we did everything we could to give them a world full of justice, hope and beauty.

Alternative Educational Futures

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Alternative Educational Futures by :

Download or read book Alternative Educational Futures written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Global Trends 2030

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646797721
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (977 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Trends 2030 by : National Intelligence Council

Download or read book Global Trends 2030 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2018-02-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important report, Global Trends 2030-Alternative Worlds, released in 2012 by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. Among the megatrends, it analyzes: - increased individual empowerment - the diffusion of power among states and the ascent of a networked multi-polar world - a world's population growing to 8.3 billion people, of which sixty percent will live in urbanized areas, and surging cross-border migration - expanding demand for food, water, and energy It furthermore describes potential game changers, including: - a global economy that could thrive or collapse - increased global insecurity due to regional instability in the Middle East and South Asia - new technologies that could solve the problems caused by the megatrends - the possibility, but by no means the certainty, that the U.S. with new partners will reinvent the international system Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.

Why the West Rules - For Now

Author : Ian Morris
Publisher : McClelland & Stewart
ISBN 13 : 1551995816
Total Pages : 767 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Why the West Rules - For Now by : Ian Morris

Download or read book Why the West Rules - For Now written by Ian Morris and published by McClelland & Stewart. This book was released on 2011-01-14 with total page 767 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why does the West rule? In this magnum opus, eminent Stanford polymath Ian Morris answers this provocative question, drawing on 50,000 years of history, archeology, and the methods of social science, to make sense of when, how, and why the paths of development differed in the East and West — and what this portends for the 21st century. There are two broad schools of thought on why the West rules. Proponents of "Long-Term Lock-In" theories such as Jared Diamond suggest that from time immemorial, some critical factor — geography, climate, or culture perhaps — made East and West unalterably different, and determined that the industrial revolution would happen in the West and push it further ahead of the East. But the East led the West between 500 and 1600, so this development can't have been inevitable; and so proponents of "Short-Term Accident" theories argue that Western rule was a temporary aberration that is now coming to an end, with Japan, China, and India resuming their rightful places on the world stage. However, as the West led for 9,000 of the previous 10,000 years, it wasn't just a temporary aberration. So, if we want to know why the West rules, we need a whole new theory. Ian Morris, boldly entering the turf of Jared Diamond and Niall Ferguson, provides the broader approach that is necessary, combining the textual historian's focus on context, the anthropological archaeologist's awareness of the deep past, and the social scientist's comparative methods to make sense of the past, present, and future — in a way no one has ever done before.

Upheaval

Author : Jared Diamond
Publisher : Little, Brown
ISBN 13 : 0316409154
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (164 download)

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Book Synopsis Upheaval by : Jared Diamond

Download or read book Upheaval written by Jared Diamond and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2019-05-07 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A "riveting and illuminating" Bill Gates Summer Reading pick about how and why some nations recover from trauma and others don't (Yuval Noah Harari), by the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of the landmark bestseller Guns, Germs, and Steel. In his international bestsellers Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse, Jared Diamond transformed our understanding of what makes civilizations rise and fall. Now, in his third book in this monumental trilogy, he reveals how successful nations recover from crises while adopting selective changes -- a coping mechanism more commonly associated with individuals recovering from personal crises. Diamond compares how six countries have survived recent upheavals -- ranging from the forced opening of Japan by U.S. Commodore Perry's fleet, to the Soviet Union's attack on Finland, to a murderous coup or countercoup in Chile and Indonesia, to the transformations of Germany and Austria after World War Two. Because Diamond has lived and spoken the language in five of these six countries, he can present gut-wrenching histories experienced firsthand. These nations coped, to varying degrees, through mechanisms such as acknowledgment of responsibility, painfully honest self-appraisal, and learning from models of other nations. Looking to the future, Diamond examines whether the United States, Japan, and the whole world are successfully coping with the grave crises they currently face. Can we learn from lessons of the past? Adding a psychological dimension to the in-depth history, geography, biology, and anthropology that mark all of Diamond's books, Upheaval reveals factors influencing how both whole nations and individual people can respond to big challenges. The result is a book epic in scope, but also his most personal yet.

Anthropological Futures

Author : Michael M. J. Fischer
Publisher : Duke University Press
ISBN 13 : 0822390795
Total Pages : 426 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (223 download)

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Book Synopsis Anthropological Futures by : Michael M. J. Fischer

Download or read book Anthropological Futures written by Michael M. J. Fischer and published by Duke University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-26 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Anthropological Futures, Michael M. J. Fischer explores the uses of anthropology as a mode of philosophical inquiry, an evolving academic discipline, and a means for explicating the complex and shifting interweaving of human bonds and social interactions on a global level. Through linked essays, which are both speculative and experimental, Fischer seeks to break new ground for anthropology by illuminating the field’s broad analytical capacity and its attentiveness to emergent cultural systems. Fischer is particularly concerned with cultural anthropology’s interactions with science studies, and throughout the book he investigates how emerging knowledge formations in molecular biology, environmental studies, computer science, and bioengineering are transforming some of anthropology’s key concepts including nature, culture, personhood, and the body. In an essay on culture, he uses the science studies paradigm of “experimental systems” to consider how the social scientific notion of culture has evolved as an analytical tool since the nineteenth century. Charting anthropology’s role in understanding and analyzing the production of knowledge within the sciences since the 1990s, he highlights anthropology’s aptitude for tracing the transnational collaborations and multisited networks that constitute contemporary scientific practice. Fischer investigates changing ideas about cultural inscription on the human body in a world where genetic engineering, robotics, and cybernetics are constantly redefining our understanding of biology. In the final essay, Fischer turns to Kant’s philosophical anthropology to reassess the object of study for contemporary anthropology and to reassert the field’s primacy for answering the largest questions about human beings, societies, culture, and our interactions with the world around us. In Anthropological Futures, Fischer continues to advance what Clifford Geertz, in reviewing Fischer’s earlier book Emergent Forms of Life and the Anthropological Voice, called “a broad new agenda for cultural description and political critique.”