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Author : Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 81 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (165 download)
Download or read book Perspectives on high world real interest rates written by Olivier J. Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates written by Olivier J. Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real interest rates in the United States have reached extremely high levels in the last several years. This surge in real rates at all maturities has not lacked explanations. Large current and prospective deficits, tight money, better profit prospects, financial deregulation, and increased uncertainty are among the factors than have been blamed for high real rates. If one looks only at the performance of the U.S. bond market, it is difficult to discriminate among possible explanations for the behavior of real interest rates. This paper examines the worldwide behavior of interest rates and the performance of other asset markets besides the U.S. bond market in order to better explain high real rates.
Author : Nemat Shafik
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book Are High Real Interest Rates Bad for World Economic Growth? written by Nemat Shafik and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1991 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The conventional wisdom says yes. But close examination suggests the answer is not nearly so clear-cut.
Author : Luis Catão
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Perspectives on Low Global Interest Rates written by Luis Catão and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper looks at the dramatic decline in global real interest rates in recent years from a historical perspective and examines the various factors that may account for this trend. We show that current levels of real interest rates on long-term bonds in advanced economies are not low by historical standards and that it is the real long bond rates of the early 1980s through much of the 1990s that look anomalous. We also find that current global long-term interest rates are roughly in line with what one would predict given current price-earnings (P/E) ratios and under reasonable assumptions about the equity risk premia and the expected rate of growth of earnings in advanced countries. Finally, we provide econometric evidence that global long-term interest rates are significantly affected by commodity prices, expected productivity growth, and fiscal consolidation in advanced countries.
Author : Prakash Kannan
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781451871098
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (71 download)
Download or read book Perspectives on High Real Interest Rates in Turkey written by Prakash Kannan and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-10-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Turkish economy is typically characterized as having particularly high real interest rates. Fundamental considerations, such as high growth rates or high returns to capital, do not provide a satisfactory resolution of this puzzle. Instead, we find that two other factors- doubts about the sustainability of disinflation and the existence of a risk premium-have a significant impact on the level of real interest rates in Turkey. Importantly, fiscal policy variables are shown to affect both these factors, suggesting that a more credible and prudent fiscal policy can help reduce real interest rates in Turkey.
Author : Mr.Abhisek Banerjee
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781451865097
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (65 download)
Download or read book Testing Real Interest Parity in Emerging Markets written by Mr.Abhisek Banerjee and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper finds significant deviations between short-term emerging market real interest rates and world real interest rates primarily due to the inflationary expectations of the local investor base. We test for long-run real interest convergence in emerging markets using a time varying panel unit root test proposed by Pesaran to capture the improved macro-economic fundamentals since early 1990s. We also estimate the speed of convergence in the presence of a shock. The paper suggests that real interest rates in the emerging markets show some convergence in the long run but real interest parity does not hold. Our results also find that the speed of adjustment of real rates to a shock is estimated to differ significantly across the emerging markets. Measured by their half-life, some emerging markets in Asia, E.Europe and S.Africa, where real interest rates are generally low, take much longer to adjust than where real interest rates are generally high (Latin America, Turkey). From a policy perspective, encouraging foreign investors to take direct exposure at the short end of the local debt market could lower the real interest rates in some emerging markets.
Author : Michael D. Bordo
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226066959
Total Pages : 545 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Author : Laurent Ferrara
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319790757
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Author : Robert E. Cumby
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book The International Linkage of Real Interest Rates written by Robert E. Cumby and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Casual observation indicates that in recent years real interest rates in the United States appear to have risen sharply and have remained high relative to historical standards. Many observers have claimed that these high real rates have been transmitted abroad and have lead to high real rates in the rest of the industrialized countries. Concern over the level of real rates has been widespread in the analyses by economic policymakers both in Europe and in the United States. In this paper we present evidence on several questions regarding the movement in short term real interest rates in eight countries that have been raised by the recent policy debates in Europe and the United States: Have ex ante real rates in the United States and Europe been high during recent years? Has there been a link between U.S. real rates and those in other countries? Can this link be quantified?The basic finding in this paper is that real rates have climbed dramatically from the 1970s to the 1980s in both the European countries and the United States. Indeed, real interest rates in the United States are currently at high levels unprecedented in the post war period, which rival the levels that occurred during the Great Depression. Complaints that real interest rates in the United States are exceedingly high seem to be well justified. There is also strong evidence that there is a positive association between movements in U.S. real rates and those in Europe. However,European real rates typically do not move one-for-one with U.S. real rates,still leaving open the possibility that European monetary policy can influence domestic economic activity.
Author : Li Lian Ong
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780864228246
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (282 download)
Download or read book The World Real Interest Rate written by Li Lian Ong and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ms.Jahanara Zaman
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451859007
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Correlations Between Real Interest Rates and Output in a Dynamic International Model written by Ms.Jahanara Zaman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-12-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the extent to which a dynamic international general equilibrium model can account for observed movements in real interest rates and interest rate differentials. Using data for Group of Seven, the study finds that measured real interest rates are countercyclical in a single country and that the contemporaneous cross-correlations between international real interest differentials and output growth spreads are negative. Predictions of the baseline model are, however, inconsistent with the data. Extending the benchmark model to include habit persistence in consumption improves the match between theory and data.
Author : Richard Hemming
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Author : Brigitte Desroches
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (86 download)
Download or read book World Real Interest Rates written by Brigitte Desroches and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Prakash Kannan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (842 download)
Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Prakash Kannan and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Charles Goodhart
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030426572
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)
Download or read book The Great Demographic Reversal written by Charles Goodhart and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-08 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
Author : Robert J. Barro
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 88 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 ( download)
Download or read book Real World Interest Rates written by Robert J. Barro and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Robert J. Barro
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)
Download or read book World Real Interest Rates written by Robert J. Barro and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We think of the expected real interest rate for ten OECD countries (our counterpart of the world economy) as determined by the equation of aggregate investment demand to aggregate desired saving. Stock-market returns isolate shifts to investment demand, and changes in oil prices, monetary growth, and fiscal variables isolate shifts to desired saving. We estimated the reduced form for CDP-weighted world averages of the expected short-term real interest rate and the investment ratio over the period 1959-88. The estimates reveal significant effects in the predicted direction for world stock returns, oil prices, and world monetary growth, but fiscal variables turned out to be unimportant. Structural estimation implies that an increase by one percentage point in the expected real interest rate raises the desired saving rate by onethird of a percentage point. Simulations of the model indicated that fluctuations in world stock returns and oil prices explain a good deal of the time series for the world average of expected real interest rates; specifically, why the rates were low in 1974-79 and high in 1981-86. The model also explains the fall in real rates in 1987-88 and the subsequent upturn in 1989. The fitted relation forecasts an increase in the world average of real interest rates in 1990 to a value, 5.6 %, that is nearly a full percentage point above the highest value attained in the entire prior sample, 1958-89. We estimated systems of equations for individual countries' expected real interest rates and investment ratios. One finding is that each country's expected real interest rate depends primarily on world factors, rather than own-country factors, thereby suggesting a good deal of integration of world capital and goods markets.
