Demographic Forecasting

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691186782
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Demographic Forecasting by : Federico Girosi

Download or read book Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more

Multistate Analysis of Life Histories with R

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331908383X
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Multistate Analysis of Life Histories with R by : Frans Willekens

Download or read book Multistate Analysis of Life Histories with R written by Frans Willekens and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-09-11 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an introduction to multistate event history analysis. It is an extension of survival analysis, in which a single terminal event (endpoint) is considered and the time-to-event is studied. Multistate models focus on life histories or trajectories, conceptualized as sequences of states and sequences of transitions between states. Life histories are modeled as realizations of continuous-time Markov processes. The model parameters, transition rates, are estimated from data on event counts and populations at risk, using the statistical theory of counting processes. The Comprehensive R Network Archive (CRAN) includes several packages for multistate modeling. This book is about Biograph. The package is designed to (a) enhance exploratory analysis of life histories and (b) make multistate modeling accessible. The package incorporates utilities that connect to several packages for multistate modeling, including survival, eha, Epi, mvna,, mstate, msm, and TraMineR for sequence analysis. The book is a ‘hands-on’ presentation of Biograph and the packages listed. It is written from the perspective of the user. To help the user master the techniques and the software, a single data set is used to illustrate the methods and software. It is the subsample of the German Life History Survey, which was also used by Blossfeld and Rohwer in their popular textbook on event history modeling. Another data set, the Netherlands Family and Fertility Survey, is used to illustrate how Biograph can assist in answering questions on life paths of cohorts and individuals. The book is suitable as a textbook for graduate courses on event history analysis and introductory courses on competing risks and multistate models. It may also be used as a self-study book. The R code used in the book is available online. Frans Willekens is affiliated with the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock, Germany. He is Emeritus Professor of Demography at the University of Groningen, a Honorary Fellow of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) in the Hague, and a Research Associate of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. He is a member of Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). He has contributed to the modeling and simulation of life histories, mainly in the context of population forecasting.

Emerging Issues in Demographic Research

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Publisher : Elsevier Publishing Company
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Emerging Issues in Demographic Research by : Cornelius A. Hazeu

Download or read book Emerging Issues in Demographic Research written by Cornelius A. Hazeu and published by Elsevier Publishing Company. This book was released on 1990 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030105342
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology by : Hal Caswell

Download or read book Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology written by Hal Caswell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-02 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book shows how to use sensitivity analysis in demography. It presents new methods for individuals, cohorts, and populations, with applications to humans, other animals, and plants. The analyses are based on matrix formulations of age-classified, stage-classified, and multistate population models. Methods are presented for linear and nonlinear, deterministic and stochastic, and time-invariant and time-varying cases. Readers will discover results on the sensitivity of statistics of longevity, life disparity, occupancy times, the net reproductive rate, and statistics of Markov chain models in demography. They will also see applications of sensitivity analysis to population growth rates, stable population structures, reproductive value, equilibria under immigration and nonlinearity, and population cycles. Individual stochasticity is a theme throughout, with a focus that goes beyond expected values to include variances in demographic outcomes. The calculations are easily and accurately implemented in matrix-oriented programming languages such as Matlab or R. Sensitivity analysis will help readers create models to predict the effect of future changes, to evaluate policy effects, and to identify possible evolutionary responses to the environment. Complete with many examples of the application, the book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in human demography and population biology. The material will also appeal to those in mathematical biology and applied mathematics.

Mathematical Demography

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642358586
Total Pages : 341 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (423 download)

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Book Synopsis Mathematical Demography by : David P. Smith

Download or read book Mathematical Demography written by David P. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-07-23 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mathematical demography is the centerpiece of quantitative social science. The founding works of this field from Roman times to the late Twentieth Century are collected here, in a new edition of a classic work by David R. Smith and Nathan Keyfitz. Commentaries by Smith and Keyfitz have been brought up to date and extended by Kenneth Wachter and Hervé Le Bras, giving a synoptic picture of the leading achievements in formal population studies. Like the original collection, this new edition constitutes an indispensable source for students and scientists alike, and illustrates the deep roots and continuing vitality of mathematical demography.

Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400940114
Total Pages : 376 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences by : Kenneth C. Land

Download or read book Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences written by Kenneth C. Land and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social and natural scientists often are called upon to produce, or participate, in the pro duction of forecasts. This volume assembles essays that (a) describe the organizational and political context of applied forecasting, (b) review the state-of-the-art for many fore casting models and methods, and (c) discuss issues of predictability, the implications of forecaSt errors, and model construction, linkage and verification. The essays should be of particular interest to social and natural scientists concerned with forecasting large-scale systems. This project had its origins in discussions of social forecasts and forecasting method ologies initiated a few years ago by several social and natural science members of the Social Science Research Council's Committee on Social Indicators. It became appar ent in these discussions that certain similar problems were confronted in forecasting large-scale systems-be they social or natural. In response, the Committee hypothesized that much could be learned through more extended and systematic interchanges among social and natural scientists focusing on the formal methodologies applied in forecasting. To put this conjecture to the test, the Committee sponsored a conference at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, on June 10-13, 1984, on forecasting in the social and natural sciences. The conference was co-chaired by Committee members Kenneth C. Land and Stephen H. Schneider representing, respectively, the social and natural science mem bership of the Committee. Support for the conference was provided by a grant to the Council from the Division of Social and Economic Science of the National Science Foundation.

Applied Multiregional Demography: Migration and Population Redistribution

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319223186
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Multiregional Demography: Migration and Population Redistribution by : Andrei Rogers

Download or read book Applied Multiregional Demography: Migration and Population Redistribution written by Andrei Rogers and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-09-04 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows the effectiveness of multiregional demography for studying the spatial dynamics of migration and population redistribution. It examines important questions in demographic analysis and shows how the techniques of multiregional analysis can lead to answers that sometimes contradict conventional wisdom. The book reconsiders conclusions reached in the literature regarding several fundamental common sense demographic questions in migration and population redistribution, including: Is it mostly migration or “aging-in-place” that has been driving Florida’s elderly population growth? Do the elderly return “home” after retirement more than the non-elderly do? Does longer life lead to longer ill-health? Do simple population projection models outperform complex ones? For each demographic question it reconsiders, the book begins with a simple empirical numerical example and with it illustrates how a uniregional specification can bias findings to favor a particular, and possibly incorrect, conclusion. It then goes on to show how a multiregional analysis can better illuminate the dynamics that underlie the observed population totals and lead to a more informed conclusion. Offering insights into the effectiveness of multiregional demography, this book serves as a valuable resource for students and researchers searching for a better way to answer questions in demographic analysis and population dynamics.​

Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0306475626
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries by : E. Tabeau

Download or read book Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries written by E. Tabeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-11 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

Population Structures and Models

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Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1000929132
Total Pages : 460 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Population Structures and Models by : Robert Woods

Download or read book Population Structures and Models written by Robert Woods and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-10-02 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1986, this volume brings together geographical modelling of population change and demographic analysis of population structures and pattern. These 2 strands are interwoven in 3 key review chapters that summarize the study of spatial and temporal patterns of population, the modelling of spatial populations and the estimation of population processes. Findings reported include: An account of demographic transition; an exposé of the myth of ‘no fertility rises’ in the developing world in the 20th Century; a theory of population accounting; predicting migration flows for a system of regions; microsimulation methods to model population change; and demographic and economic processes integrated in an urban region model.

Developments in Demographic Forecasting

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030424723
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Developments in Demographic Forecasting by : Stefano Mazzuco

Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

National Population Forecasting in Industrialized Countries

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 388 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis National Population Forecasting in Industrialized Countries by : Nico Keilman

Download or read book National Population Forecasting in Industrialized Countries written by Nico Keilman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1992-06 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on a review conducted in 1988 of national population forecasting processes applied by statistical agencies in 30 countries.

Multi-State Survival Models for Interval-Censored Data

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1315356732
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (153 download)

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Book Synopsis Multi-State Survival Models for Interval-Censored Data by : Ardo van den Hout

Download or read book Multi-State Survival Models for Interval-Censored Data written by Ardo van den Hout and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-11-25 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Multi-State Survival Models for Interval-Censored Data introduces methods to describe stochastic processes that consist of transitions between states over time. It is targeted at researchers in medical statistics, epidemiology, demography, and social statistics. One of the applications in the book is a three-state process for dementia and survival in the older population. This process is described by an illness-death model with a dementia-free state, a dementia state, and a dead state. Statistical modelling of a multi-state process can investigate potential associations between the risk of moving to the next state and variables such as age, gender, or education. A model can also be used to predict the multi-state process. The methods are for longitudinal data subject to interval censoring. Depending on the definition of a state, it is possible that the time of the transition into a state is not observed exactly. However, when longitudinal data are available the transition time may be known to lie in the time interval defined by two successive observations. Such an interval-censored observation scheme can be taken into account in the statistical inference. Multi-state modelling is an elegant combination of statistical inference and the theory of stochastic processes. Multi-State Survival Models for Interval-Censored Data shows that the statistical modelling is versatile and allows for a wide range of applications.

New Directions in the Sociology of Aging

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Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309293006
Total Pages : 310 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis New Directions in the Sociology of Aging by : National Research Council

Download or read book New Directions in the Sociology of Aging written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-12-26 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aging of the population of the United States is occurring at a time of major economic and social changes. These economic changes include consideration of increases in the age of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare and possible changes in benefit levels. Furthermore, changes in the social context in which older individuals and families function may well affect the nature of key social relationships and institutions that define the environment for older persons. Sociology offers a knowledge base, a number of useful analytic approaches and tools, and unique theoretical perspectives that can facilitate understanding of these demographic, economic, and social changes and, to the extent possible, their causes, consequences and implications. New Directions in the Sociology of Aging evaluates the recent contributions of social demography, social epidemiology and sociology to the study of aging and identifies promising new research directions in these sub-fields. Included in this study are nine papers prepared by experts in sociology, demography, social genomics, public health, and other fields, that highlight the broad array of tools and perspectives that can provide the basis for further advancing the understanding of aging processes in ways that can inform policy. This report discusses the role of sociology in what is a wide-ranging and diverse field of study; a proposed three-dimensional conceptual model for studying social processes in aging over the life cycle; a review of existing databases, data needs and opportunities, primarily in the area of measurement of interhousehold and intergenerational transmission of resources, biomarkers and biosocial interactions; and a summary of roadblocks and bridges to transdisciplinary research that will affect the future directions of the field of sociology of aging.

Journal of the American Statistical Association

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 694 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (321 download)

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Book Synopsis Journal of the American Statistical Association by : American Statistical Association

Download or read book Journal of the American Statistical Association written by American Statistical Association and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 694 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Model Migration Schedules

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (243 download)

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Book Synopsis Model Migration Schedules by : Andrei Rogers

Download or read book Model Migration Schedules written by Andrei Rogers and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Integrated Population Models

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Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128209151
Total Pages : 640 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (282 download)

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Book Synopsis Integrated Population Models by : Michael Schaub

Download or read book Integrated Population Models written by Michael Schaub and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Integrated Population Models: Theory and Ecological Applications with R and JAGS is the first book on integrated population models, which constitute a powerful framework for combining multiple data sets from the population and the individual levels to estimate demographic parameters, and population size and trends. These models identify drivers of population dynamics and forecast the composition and trajectory of a population. Written by two population ecologists with expertise on integrated population modeling, this book provides a comprehensive synthesis of the relevant theory of integrated population models with an extensive overview of practical applications, using Bayesian methods by means of case studies. The book contains fully-documented, complete code for fitting all models in the free software, R and JAGS. It also includes all required code for pre- and post-model-fitting analysis. Integrated Population Models is an invaluable reference for researchers and practitioners involved in population analysis, and for graduate-level students in ecology, conservation biology, wildlife management, and related fields. The text is ideal for self-study and advanced graduate-level courses. - Offers practical and accessible ecological applications of IPMs (integrated population models) - Provides full documentation of analyzed code in the Bayesian framework - Written and structured for an easy approach to the subject, especially for non-statisticians

Readings in Population Research Methodology: Population models, projections and estimates

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 496 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Readings in Population Research Methodology: Population models, projections and estimates by : Donald J. Bogue

Download or read book Readings in Population Research Methodology: Population models, projections and estimates written by Donald J. Bogue and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: