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Panel Nowcasting For Countries Whose Quarterly Gdps Are Unavailable
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Book Synopsis Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable by : Omer Faruk Akbal
Download or read book Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable written by Omer Faruk Akbal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-04 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Book Synopsis Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies by : Mr.Philip Liu
Download or read book Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies written by Mr.Philip Liu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies by : Edouard Challe
Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies written by Edouard Challe and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2023-09-19 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.
Book Synopsis Guidelines on Producing Leading, Composite and Sentiment Indicators by : United Nations
Download or read book Guidelines on Producing Leading, Composite and Sentiment Indicators written by United Nations and published by United Nations. This book was released on 2019-12-18 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading, composite and sentiment indicators offer a powerful way of communication of statistical information and reaching out to users of statistics. The indicators can provide relevant and timely information on aspects of the economy and the social society that are not covered by other statistics. They can also provide information on complex phenomena in simple and condensed form, for instance on the current or expected economic development or on the well-being or sense of happiness of the citizens. These Guidelines provide guidance to statistical offices on their possible roles in developing and producing leading, composite and sentiment indicators and give practical and operational guidance to statistical offices that produce or consider producing these indicators. Existing examples of good practice are also referenced.
Book Synopsis Europe and the Euro by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book Europe and the Euro written by Alberto Alesina and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-04-15 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is rare for countries to give up their currencies and thus their ability to influence such critical aspects of their economies as interest and exchange rates. Yet ten years ago a number of European countries did exactly that when they adopted the euro. Despite some dissent, there were a number of arguments in favor of this policy change: it would facilitate exchange of goods, money, and people by decreasing costs; it would increase trade; and it would enhance efficiency and competitiveness at the international level. A decade is an ideal time frame over which to evaluate the success of the euro and whether it has lived up to expectations. To that aim, Europe and the Euro looks at a number of important issues, including the effects of the euro on reform of goods and labor markets; its influence on business cycles and trade among members; and whether the single currency has induced convergence or divergence in the economic performance of member countries. While adoption of the euro may not have met the expectations of its most optimistic proponents, the benefits have been many, and there is reason to believe that the euro is robust enough to survive recent economic shocks. This volume is an essential reference on the first ten years of the euro and the workings of a monetary union.
Book Synopsis Zimbabwe by : International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Download or read book Zimbabwe written by International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-20 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of a five-year project of the Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative (EDDI) 2 Government Finance Statistics (GFS) Module on improving GFS and public-sector debt statistics in selected African countries, a mission was conducted in Harare, Zimbabwe during April 15–26, 2019. This mission was a follow up on a 2018 GFS technical assistance (TA) mission under the EDDI 2. The mission’s objective was to review progress made and assisting with outstanding statistical issues that are important for sound policymaking in Zimbabwe. Some of the key outstanding issues raised by the IMF African Department prior to the mission were, the classification of government subsidies to state owned enterprises (SOEs); the identification of extrabudgetary units (EBUs) and classification of their operations; and the correct classification of other government transactions in line with a Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) 2014 framework.
Download or read book U-MIDAS written by Claudia Foroni and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Publisher : ISBN 13 :9789264148086 Total Pages :114 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (48 download)
Book Synopsis The Agricultural Outlook by : Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Download or read book The Agricultural Outlook written by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Agricultural Outlook provides a five-year assessment of trends and prospects in the major agricultural commodity markets
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends’ Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries by : Mr.Futoshi Narita
Download or read book In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends’ Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries written by Mr.Futoshi Narita and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-14 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Timely data availability is a long-standing challenge in policy-making and analysis for low-income developing countries. This paper explores the use of Google Trends’ data to narrow such information gaps and finds that online search frequencies about a country significantly correlate with macroeconomic variables (e.g., real GDP, inflation, capital flows), conditional on other covariates. The correlation with real GDP is stronger than that of nighttime lights, whereas the opposite is found for emerging market economies. The search frequencies also improve out-of-sample forecasting performance albeit slightly, demonstrating their potential to facilitate timely assessments of economic conditions in low-income developing countries.
Book Synopsis Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists by : Maximo Camacho
Download or read book Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists written by Maximo Camacho and published by . This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists seeks to close the gap between research and applied short-term forecasting. The authors review some of the key theoretical results and empirical findings in the recent literature on short-term forecasting, and translate these findings into economically meaningful techniques to facilitate their widespread application to compute short-term forecasts in economics, and to monitor the ongoing business cycle developments in real time.
Book Synopsis The Stiglitz Report by : Joseph E. Stiglitz
Download or read book The Stiglitz Report written by Joseph E. Stiglitz and published by The New Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fact that the global economy is broken may be widely accepted, but what precisely needs to be fixed has become the subject of enormous controversy. In 2008, the President of the United Nations General Assembly convened an international panel, chaired by Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and including 20 leading experts on the international monetary system, to address this crucial issue. This report controversially establishes a bold agenda for policy change, both broad in scope and profound in its ambitions.
Book Synopsis For Good Measure by : Joseph E. Stiglitz
Download or read book For Good Measure written by Joseph E. Stiglitz and published by The New Press. This book was released on 2019-11-19 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's leading economists weigh in with a new "dashboard" of metrics for measuring our economic and social health "What we measure affects what we do. If we focus only on material well-being—on, say, the production of goods, rather than on health, education, and the environment—we become distorted in the same way that these measures are distorted." —Joseph E. Stiglitz A consensus has emerged among key experts that our conventional economic measures are out of sync with how most people live their lives. GDP, they argue, is a poor and outmoded measure of our well-being. The global movement to move beyond GDP has attracted some of the world's leading economists, statisticians, and social thinkers who have worked collectively to articulate new approaches to measuring economic well-being and social progress. In the decade since the 2008 economic crisis, these experts have come together to determine what indicators can actually tell us about people's lives. In the first book of its kind, leading economists from around the world, including Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, Elizabeth Beasely, Jacob Hacker, François Bourguignon, Nora Lustig, Alan B. Krueger, and Joseph E. Stiglitz, describe a range of fascinating metrics—from economic insecurity and environmental sustainability to inequality of opportunity and levels of trust and resilience—that can be used to supplement the simplistic measure of gross domestic product, providing a far more nuanced and accurate account of societal health and well-being. This groundbreaking volume is sure to provide a major source of ideas and inspiration for one of the most important intellectual movements of our time.
Book Synopsis Botswana by : International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Download or read book Botswana written by International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-19 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted by IMF’s Regional Technical Assistance Center for Southern Africa (AFS) during November 2023 to assist Statistics Botswana (SB) in reviewing and finalizing the questionnaires to be used in the Census of Economic Establishments (CEE), sample design and IT processing system in preparation for the rebasing of the national accounts. The draft CEE questionnaires finalized during the previous mission in March 2023, have been tested. The IT system specifications were reviewed, and several improvements were incorporated. The mission and team commenced development of the data collection and data processing manuals. SB are planning to use the tax list to identify the sample frame for this rebase. The deflator issues raised by the IMF country team were discussed.
Book Synopsis Quarterly Economic Commentary by : Terence J. Baker
Download or read book Quarterly Economic Commentary written by Terence J. Baker and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Euro Area Business Cycle by : Lucrezia Reichlin
Download or read book The Euro Area Business Cycle written by Lucrezia Reichlin and published by Centre for Economic Policy Research. This book was released on 2004 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
