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Overview Of The New Calibrated Dsge Model Of The Economy Of North Macedonia
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Book Synopsis Overview of the New Calibrated DSGE Model of the Economy of North Macedonia by : Tibor Hlédik
Download or read book Overview of the New Calibrated DSGE Model of the Economy of North Macedonia written by Tibor Hlédik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-08-30 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a calibrated DSGE model of the economy of North Macedonia that was developed at the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia (NBRNM) within a technical assistance project delivered jointly by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Czech National Bank (CNB). The model structure reflects the specific characteristics of the economy of North Macedonia. Namely, it is a small open economy DSGE model featuring a fixed exchange rate regime functioning in an economy experiencing structural changes over time. The paper provides a detailed overview of the theoretical structure of the model, including optimization problems of economic agents and first-order optimality conditions. A particular emphasis is put on model calibration, as well as on model evaluation, including the analysis of impulse responses, shock decompositions and historical in-sample simulation. Compared to other empirical papers focusing on DSGE models, our approach explicitly includes additional trends and wedges needed to capture non-stationary great ratios as well as the Balassa-Samuelson effect. The model has been developed to complement the existing analytic tools used at the NBRNM for policy analyses and to improve the understanding of the underlying drivers of the business cycle of the domestic economy.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises in DSGE Models by : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Download or read book Financial Crises in DSGE Models written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-04 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents the theoretical structure of MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions, and to support macroprudential policy analysis. In MAPMOD, bank loans create purchasing power that facilitates adjustments in the real economy. But excessively large and risky loans can impair balance sheets and sow the seeds of a financial crisis. Banks respond to losses through higher spreads and rapid credit cutbacks, with adverse effects for the real economy. These features allow the model to capture the basic facts of financial cycles. A companion paper studies the simulation properties of MAPMOD.
Book Synopsis Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis by : Ms. Edda Zoli
Download or read book Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis written by Ms. Edda Zoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the use of public resources is critical to cushion the impact of the financial crisis on the euro-area economy, it is key that the entailed fiscal costs not be seen by markets as undermining fiscal sustainability. From this perspective, to what extent do movements in euro area sovereign spreads reflect country-specific solvency concerns? In line with previous studies, the paper suggests that euro area sovereign risk premium differentials tend to comove over time and are mainly driven by a common time-varying factor, mimicking global risk repricing. Since October 2008, however, there is evidence that markets have become progressively more concerned about the potential fiscal implications of national financial sectors'' frailty and future debt dynamics. The liquidity of sovereign bond markets still seems to play a significant (albeit fairly limited) role in explaining changes in euro area spreads.
Book Synopsis Assessing Dsge Models with Capital Accumulation and Indeterminacy by : Mr.Vadim Khramov
Download or read book Assessing Dsge Models with Capital Accumulation and Indeterminacy written by Mr.Vadim Khramov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The simulated results of this paper show that New Keynesian DSGE models with capital accumulation can generate substantial persistencies in the dynamics of the main economic variables, due to the stock nature of capital. Empirical estimates on U.S. data from 1960:I to 2008:I show the response of monetary policy to inflation was almost twice lower than traditionally considered, as capital accumulation creates an additional channel of influence through real interest rates in the production sector. Versions of the model with indeterminacy empirically outperform determinate versions. This paper allows for the reconsideration of previous findings and has significant monetary policy implications.
Book Synopsis Managing Reductions in Aid Inflows: Assessing Policy Choices in Haiti by : Ioana Moldovan
Download or read book Managing Reductions in Aid Inflows: Assessing Policy Choices in Haiti written by Ioana Moldovan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-11 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A low-income country such as Haiti that confronts an environment of diminishing aid inflows must assess tradeoffs among the available policy options: spending cuts, monetization, sales of debt, or use of foreign reserves. To provide the analytical tools for this task, the paper draws from a set of DSGE models recently developed to evaluate policy choices in low-income countries for which external aid flows represent an important revenue source. Two simplified stylized variations of the main model are used to gain intuition and initially assess the trdeaoffs. Subsequenctly a full-scale small open economy DSGE model, calibrated to match conditions in Haiti and in similar low-income countries, is employed. Several key results are common to all model versions. While sales of foreign exchange reserves can compensate for the loss of aid inflows, this strategy is not sustainable. The remaining policy choices entail larger welfare costs, involving lower consumption levels and real depreciation. The results suggest that a mixture of spending cuts and depreciation is the best strategy, when use of foreign reserves is constrained.
Book Synopsis Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations by : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :151354103X Total Pages :27 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis Republic of North Macedonia by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Republic of North Macedonia written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-04-21 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights the Republic of North Macedonia’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). North Macedonia’s economic outlook has deteriorated substantially due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Real GDP is expected to decline by 4 percent in 2020 due to a fall in both domestic and external demand. This, together with negative shocks to confidence and spill-overs from global financial channels, has created an urgent balance of payments need. The authorities quickly responded with targeted and temporary fiscal policy support to limit the social and economic impact of the health emergency by protecting the liquidity of companies, preserving jobs and providing social care for the jobless and vulnerable households. The authorities have also expressed their strong commitment, once the COVID-19 crisis is over, to rebuilding fiscal buffers and implementing the structural reform agenda to help preserve debt sustainability and speed up income convergence to European Union countries.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Technology and the Future of Work by : Balwant Singh Mehta
Download or read book Technology and the Future of Work written by Balwant Singh Mehta and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2024-10-07 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines how the progress of digital technology is transforming the world of work, skill demand, labour market institutions, and regulations in countries like India. It studies the challenges, opportunities, and current and future contributions of digital technologies. The volume poses salient questions regarding the ICT sector, I4.0 technologies, the gig economy, remote work, and the regulatory environment, and interrogates the policy and regulatory measures needed to promote more inclusive and decent work in the future. Part of the Towards Sustainable Futures series, this book will be an essential read for scholars and researchers of economics, sustainable development, sociology of work, labour economics, Indian economy, public policy, and human resource management. It will also be extremely useful to policymakers, government organisations, civil society organisations, and those in the corporate sector.
Book Synopsis No Business Taxation Without Model Representation by : Benjamin Carton
Download or read book No Business Taxation Without Model Representation written by Benjamin Carton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-17 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper documents the incorporation of corporate income, cash-flow and destination based cash-flow taxes into the model. The analysis presented considers the transmission mechanism of these taxes and details how financial frictions interact with each of the taxes.
Book Synopsis The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios by : Aya Achour
Download or read book The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios written by Aya Achour and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-30 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Morocco Policy Analysis model (MOPAM) was created in the Bank Al-Maghrib to simulate the impact of external developments, domestic macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We describe its structure and demonstrate its operation on two medium-term scenarios: (1) fiscal consolidation to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio and (2) the effects of the COVID-19 shock, including the endogenous fiscal and monetary policy response.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Book Synopsis China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach by : Min Zhu
Download or read book China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach written by Min Zhu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-27 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
Book Synopsis Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk by : Tobias Adrian
Download or read book Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk written by Tobias Adrian and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Book Synopsis An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka by : Chandranath Amarasekara
Download or read book An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka written by Chandranath Amarasekara and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-25 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s move towards flexible inflation targeting. The model includes a forward-looking endogenous interest rate and foreign exchange rate policy rules allowing for flexible change in policy behavior. It is a gap model that allows for simultaneous identification of business cycle position and long-term equilibrium. The model was first calibrated and then its data-fit was improved using Bayesian estimation technique with relatively tight priors.
Download or read book The ASEAN Way written by Ms.Ana Corbacho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-02 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.
