Output Growth And Output Variability

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How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?

Author : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513512544
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by : Mr.Alvar Kangur

Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Crop Output Growth

Author : Daniel Spoerri
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Crop Output Growth by : Daniel Spoerri

Download or read book Crop Output Growth written by Daniel Spoerri and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870

Author : Moses Abramovitz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870 by : Moses Abramovitz

Download or read book Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870 written by Moses Abramovitz and published by . This book was released on 1956 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Author : Mr.Alexander Chudik
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513555901
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth? by : Mr.Alexander Chudik

Download or read book Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth? written by Mr.Alexander Chudik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-08 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent errors and illustrate, by means of Monte Carlo experiments, that they perform well in small samples. On the empirical side, using data on a sample of 40 countries (grouped into advanced and developing) over the 1965- 2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth, once we account for the impact of global factors and their spillover effects. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt build-up on output growth. Provided that public debt is on a downward trajectory, a country with a high level of debt can grow just as fast as its peers in the long run.

A Tea Reader

Author : Katrina Avila Munichiello
Publisher : Tuttle Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9780804848992
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (489 download)

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Book Synopsis A Tea Reader by : Katrina Avila Munichiello

Download or read book A Tea Reader written by Katrina Avila Munichiello and published by Tuttle Publishing. This book was released on 2017-03-21 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Tea Reader contains a selection of stories that cover the spectrum of life. This anthology shares the ways that tea has changed lives through personal, intimate stories. Read of deep family moments, conquered heartbreak, and peace found in the face of loss. A Tea Reader includes stories from all types of tea people: people brought up in the tea tradition, those newly discovering it, classic writings from long-ago tea lovers and those making tea a career. Together these tales create a new image of a tea drinker. They show that tea is not simply something you drink, but it also provides quiet moments for making important decisions, a catalyst for conversation, and the energy we sometimes need to operate in our lives. The stories found in A Tea Reader cover the spectrum of life, such as the development of new friendships, beginning new careers, taking dream journeys, and essentially sharing the deep moments of life with friends and families. Whether you are a tea lover or not, here you will discover stories that speak to you and inspire you. Sit down, grab a cup, and read on.

Why Inflation Targeting?

Author : Charles Freedman
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 145187233X
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Inflation Targeting? by : Charles Freedman

Download or read book Why Inflation Targeting? written by Charles Freedman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.

New Developments in Productivity Analysis

Author : Charles R. Hulten
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226360644
Total Pages : 648 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis New Developments in Productivity Analysis by : Charles R. Hulten

Download or read book New Developments in Productivity Analysis written by Charles R. Hulten and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 648 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1980s and the resumption of productivity growth in the 1990s have provoked controversy among policymakers and researchers. Economists have been forced to reexamine fundamental questions of measurement technique. Some researchers argue that econometric approaches to productivity measurement usefully address shortcomings of the dominant index number techniques while others maintain that current productivity statistics underreport damage to the environment. In this book, the contributors propose innovative approaches to these issues. The result is a state-of-the-art exposition of contemporary productivity analysis. Charles R. Hulten is professor of economics at the University of Maryland. He has been a senior research associate at the Urban Institute and is chair of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Michael Harper is chief of the Division of Productivity Research at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Edwin R. Dean, formerly associate commissioner for Productivity and Technology at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is adjunct professor of economics at The George Washington University.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment

Author : Mr.Abdul Abiad
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484361555
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment by : Mr.Abdul Abiad

Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-04 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.

Global Business Cycles

Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451870019
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Business Cycles by : Mr.Ayhan Kose

Download or read book Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Economic Growth, second edition

Author : Robert J. Barro
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262025539
Total Pages : 676 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (255 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Growth, second edition by : Robert J. Barro

Download or read book Economic Growth, second edition written by Robert J. Barro and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003-10-10 with total page 676 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The long-awaited second edition of an important textbook on economic growth—a major revision incorporating the most recent work on the subject. This graduate level text on economic growth surveys neoclassical and more recent growth theories, stressing their empirical implications and the relation of theory to data and evidence. The authors have undertaken a major revision for the long-awaited second edition of this widely used text, the first modern textbook devoted to growth theory. The book has been expanded in many areas and incorporates the latest research. After an introductory discussion of economic growth, the book examines neoclassical growth theories, from Solow-Swan in the 1950s and Cass-Koopmans in the 1960s to more recent refinements; this is followed by a discussion of extensions to the model, with expanded treatment in this edition of heterogenity of households. The book then turns to endogenous growth theory, discussing, among other topics, models of endogenous technological progress (with an expanded discussion in this edition of the role of outside competition in the growth process), technological diffusion, and an endogenous determination of labor supply and population. The authors then explain the essentials of growth accounting and apply this framework to endogenous growth models. The final chapters cover empirical analysis of regions and empirical evidence on economic growth for a broad panel of countries from 1960 to 2000. The updated treatment of cross-country growth regressions for this edition uses the new Summers-Heston data set on world income distribution compiled through 2000.

The Economics of Input-Output Analysis

Author : Thijs ten Raa
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139447807
Total Pages : 211 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economics of Input-Output Analysis by : Thijs ten Raa

Download or read book The Economics of Input-Output Analysis written by Thijs ten Raa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-01-19 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Input-output analysis is the main tool of applied equilibrium analysis. This textbook provides a systematic survey of the most recent developments in input-output analysis and their applications, helping us to examine questions such as: which industries are competitive? What are the multiplier effects of an investment program? How do environmental restrictions impact on prices? Linear programming and national accounting are introduced and used to resolve issues such as the choice of technique, the comparative advantage of a national economy, its efficiency and dynamic performance. Technological and environmental spillovers are analysed, both at the national level (between industries) and the international level (the measurement of globalisation effects). The book is self-contained, but assumes some familiarity with calculus, matrix algebra, and the microeconomic principle of optimizing behaviour. Exercises and review questions are included at the end of each chapter, and solutions at the end of the book.

Frontiers of Business Cycle Research

Author : Thomas F. Cooley
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780691043234
Total Pages : 452 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (432 download)

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Book Synopsis Frontiers of Business Cycle Research by : Thomas F. Cooley

Download or read book Frontiers of Business Cycle Research written by Thomas F. Cooley and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1995-02-26 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t

Relative Prices and Economic Adjustment in the U.S. and the EU

Author : Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451848633
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Relative Prices and Economic Adjustment in the U.S. and the EU by : Mr.Tamim Bayoumi

Download or read book Relative Prices and Economic Adjustment in the U.S. and the EU written by Mr.Tamim Bayoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-06-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural vector autoregressions are used to analyze the relationship between real output and relative prices within the EU and the United States, Relative price variability appears to be more important for adjustment within the EU than the United States, reflecting the lower integration of goods and factor markets. In the absence of higher market integration, the lower relative price variability implied by the introduction of a single currency in the EU could well cause significant economic disruption.

Uncertainty and Unemployment

Author : Sangyup Choi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498356303
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Unemployment by : Sangyup Choi

Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

Global Productivity

Author : Alistair Dieppe
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464816093
Total Pages : 552 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Productivity by : Alistair Dieppe

Download or read book Global Productivity written by Alistair Dieppe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD

Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks

Author : Davide Debortoli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484309278
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks by : Davide Debortoli

Download or read book Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks written by Davide Debortoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-19 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.