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Author : Lewis Mandell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (134 download)
Download or read book Optimal Contributions Under Uncertainty when Benefits are Substantial written by Lewis Mandell and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author : Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309310032
Total Pages : 123 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty in the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Pharmaceutical Products written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the extensive body of evidence that informs regulatory decisions on pharmaceutical products, significant uncertainties persist, including the underlying variability in human biology, factors associated with the chemistry of a drug, and limitations in the research and clinical trial process itself that might limit the generalizability of results. As a result, regulatory reviewers are consistently required to draw conclusions about a drug's safety and efficacy from imperfect data. Efforts are underway within the drug development community to enhance the evaluation and communication of the benefits and risks associated with pharmaceutical products, aimed at increasing the predictability, transparency, and efficiency of pharmaceutical regulatory decision making. Effectively communicating regulatory decisions necessarily includes explanation of the impact of uncertainty on decision making. On February 12 and May 12, 2014, the Institute of Medicine's Forum on Drug Discovery, Development, and Translation held public workshops to advance the development of more systematic and structured approaches to characterize and communicate the sources of uncertainty in the assessment of benefits and risks, and to consider their implications for pharmaceutical regulatory decisions. Workshop presentations and discussions on February 12 were convened to explore the science of identifying and characterizing uncertainty in scientific evidence and approaches to translate uncertainties into decisions that reflect the values of stakeholders. The May 12 workshop presentations and discussions explored tools and approaches to communicating about scientific uncertainties to a range of stakeholders in the drug development process. Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty in the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Pharmaceutical Products summarizes the presentation and discussion of both events. This report explores potential analytical and communication approaches and identifies key considerations on their development, evaluation, and incorporation into pharmaceutical benefit- risk assessment throughout the entire drug development lifecycle.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030904894X
Total Pages : 668 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Author : Robert K. Dixit
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400830176
Total Pages : 484 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Author : Giorgio Consigli
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319416138
Total Pages : 310 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)
Download or read book Optimal Financial Decision Making under Uncertainty written by Giorgio Consigli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-17 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scope of this volume is primarily to analyze from different methodological perspectives similar valuation and optimization problems arising in financial applications, aimed at facilitating a theoretical and computational integration between methods largely regarded as alternatives. Increasingly in recent years, financial management problems such as strategic asset allocation, asset-liability management, as well as asset pricing problems, have been presented in the literature adopting formulation and solution approaches rooted in stochastic programming, robust optimization, stochastic dynamic programming (including approximate SDP) methods, as well as policy rule optimization, heuristic approaches and others. The aim of the volume is to facilitate the comprehension of the modeling and methodological potentials of those methods, thus their common assumptions and peculiarities, relying on similar financial problems. The volume will address different valuation problems common in finance related to: asset pricing, optimal portfolio management, risk measurement, risk control and asset-liability management. The volume features chapters of theoretical and practical relevance clarifying recent advances in the associated applied field from different standpoints, relying on similar valuation problems and, as mentioned, facilitating a mutual and beneficial methodological and theoretical knowledge transfer. The distinctive aspects of the volume can be summarized as follows: Strong benchmarking philosophy, with contributors explicitly asked to underline current limits and desirable developments in their areas. Theoretical contributions, aimed at advancing the state-of-the-art in the given domain with a clear potential for applications The inclusion of an algorithmic-computational discussion of issues arising on similar valuation problems across different methods. Variety of applications: rarely is it possible within a single volume to consider and analyze different, and possibly competing, alternative optimization techniques applied to well-identified financial valuation problems. Clear definition of the current state-of-the-art in each methodological and applied area to facilitate future research directions.
Author : A. De Filippo
Publisher : IOS Press
ISBN 13 : 1643682636
Total Pages : 126 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (436 download)
Download or read book Hybrid Offline/Online Methods for Optimization Under Uncertainty written by A. De Filippo and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2022-04-12 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Balancing the solution-quality/time trade-off and optimizing problems which feature offline and online phases can deliver significant improvements in efficiency and budget control. Offline/online integration yields benefits by achieving high quality solutions while reducing online computation time. This book considers multi-stage optimization problems under uncertainty and proposes various methods that have broad applicability. Due to the complexity of the task, the most popular approaches depend on the temporal granularity of the decisions to be made and are, in general, sampling-based methods and heuristics. Long-term strategic decisions that may have a major impact are typically solved using these more accurate, but expensive, sampling-based approaches. Short-term operational decisions often need to be made over multiple steps within a short time frame and are commonly addressed via polynomial-time heuristics, with the more advanced sampling-based methods only being applicable if their computational cost can be carefully managed. Despite being strongly interconnected, these 2 phases are typically solved in isolation. In the first part of the book, general methods based on a tighter integration between the two phases are proposed and their applicability explored, and these may lead to significant improvements. The second part of the book focuses on how to manage the cost/quality trade-off of online stochastic anticipatory algorithms, taking advantage of some offline information. All the methods proposed here provide multiple options to balance the quality/time trade-off in optimization problems that involve offline and online phases, and are suitable for a variety of practical application scenarios.
Author : Jerzy A. Filar
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441911308
Total Pages : 347 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making written by Jerzy A. Filar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-05-03 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 21st century promises to be an era dominated by international response to c- tain global environmental challenges such as climate change, depleting biodiversity and biocapacity as well as general atmospheric, water and soil pollution problems. Consequently, Environmental decision making (EDM) is a socially important ?eld of development for Operations Research and Management Science (OR/MS). - certainty is an important feature of these decision problems and it intervenes at very different time and space scales. The Handbook on “Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making” provides a guided tour of selected methods and tools that OR/MS offer to deal with these issues. Below, we brie?y introduce, peer reviewed, chapters of this handbook and the topics that are treated by the invited authors. The ?rst chapter is a general introduction to the challenges of environmental decision making, the use of OR/MS techniques and a range of tools that are used to deal with uncertainty in this domain.
Author : Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309290236
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)
Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Author : Charles Yoe
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439857504
Total Pages : 576 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)
Download or read book Principles of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i
Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author : Franklin G. Miller
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199896208
Total Pages : 347 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)
Download or read book The Ethical Challenges of Human Research written by Franklin G. Miller and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-11-15 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains 22 essays on the ethics of research involving human subjects written over a 15-year period. Topics addressed include the ethics of clinical trials, controversial study designs, and informed consent.
Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Author : Yannis Tsompanakis
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0203938526
Total Pages : 670 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (39 download)
Download or read book Structural Design Optimization Considering Uncertainties written by Yannis Tsompanakis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-02-07 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties play a dominant role in the design and optimization of structures and infrastructures. In optimum design of structural systems due to variations of the material, manufacturing variations, variations of the external loads and modelling uncertainty, the parameters of a structure, a structural system and its environment are not given, fi
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309120462
Total Pages : 422 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Science and Decisions written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-24 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 252 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book 108-1 Hearing: H.R. 2432, Paperwork and Regulatory Improvements Act of 2003, July 22, 2003, * written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ivan Ukhov
Publisher : Linköping University Electronic Press
ISBN 13 : 9176854264
Total Pages : 194 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (768 download)
Download or read book System-Level Analysis and Design under Uncertainty written by Ivan Ukhov and published by Linköping University Electronic Press. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One major problem for the designer of electronic systems is the presence of uncertainty, which is due to phenomena such as process and workload variation. Very often, uncertainty is inherent and inevitable. If ignored, it can lead to degradation of the quality of service in the best case and to severe faults or burnt silicon in the worst case. Thus, it is crucial to analyze uncertainty and to mitigate its damaging consequences by designing electronic systems in such a way that they effectively and efficiently take uncertainty into account. We begin by considering techniques for deterministic system-level analysis and design of certain aspects of electronic systems. These techniques do not take uncertainty into account, but they serve as a solid foundation for those that do. Our attention revolves primarily around power and temperature, as they are of central importance for attaining robustness and energy efficiency. We develop a novel approach to dynamic steady-state temperature analysis of electronic systems and apply it in the context of reliability optimization. We then proceed to develop techniques that address uncertainty. The first technique is designed to quantify the variability of process parameters, which is induced by process variation, across silicon wafers based on indirect and potentially incomplete and noisy measurements. The second technique is designed to study diverse system-level characteristics with respect to the variability originating from process variation. In particular, it allows for analyzing transient temperature profiles as well as dynamic steady-state temperature profiles of electronic systems. This is illustrated by considering a problem of design-space exploration with probabilistic constraints related to reliability. The third technique that we develop is designed to efficiently tackle the case of sources of uncertainty that are less regular than process variation, such as workload variation. This technique is exemplified by analyzing the effect that workload units with uncertain processing times have on the timing-, power-, and temperature-related characteristics of the system under consideration. We also address the issue of runtime management of electronic systems that are subject to uncertainty. In this context, we perform an early investigation of the utility of advanced prediction techniques for the purpose of finegrained long-range forecasting of resource usage in large computer systems. All the proposed techniques are assessed by extensive experimental evaluations, which demonstrate the superior performance of our approaches to analysis and design of electronic systems compared to existing techniques.
