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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 98 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (938 download)
Download or read book On the Prediction Error in Several Claims Reserves Estimation Methods written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mario V. Wüthrich
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470772727
Total Pages : 438 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)
Download or read book Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods in Insurance written by Mario V. Wüthrich and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Claims reserving is central to the insurance industry. Insurance liabilities depend on a number of different risk factors which need to be predicted accurately. This prediction of risk factors and outstanding loss liabilities is the core for pricing insurance products, determining the profitability of an insurance company and for considering the financial strength (solvency) of the company. Following several high-profile company insolvencies, regulatory requirements have moved towards a risk-adjusted basis which has lead to the Solvency II developments. The key focus in the new regime is that financial companies need to analyze adverse developments in their portfolios. Reserving actuaries now have to not only estimate reserves for the outstanding loss liabilities but also to quantify possible shortfalls in these reserves that may lead to potential losses. Such an analysis requires stochastic modeling of loss liability cash flows and it can only be done within a stochastic framework. Therefore stochastic loss liability modeling and quantifying prediction uncertainties has become standard under the new legal framework for the financial industry. This book covers all the mathematical theory and practical guidance needed in order to adhere to these stochastic techniques. Starting with the basic mathematical methods, working right through to the latest developments relevant for practical applications; readers will find out how to estimate total claims reserves while at the same time predicting errors and uncertainty are quantified. Accompanying datasets demonstrate all the techniques, which are easily implemented in a spreadsheet. A practical and essential guide, this book is a must-read in the light of the new solvency requirements for the whole insurance industry.
Author : James N. Stanard
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (777 download)
Download or read book A Simulation Test of Prediction Errors of Loss Reserve Estimation Techniques written by James N. Stanard and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Cira Perna
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319050141
Total Pages : 190 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance written by Cira Perna and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume aims to collect new ideas presented in the form of 4 page papers dedicated to mathematical and statistical methods in actuarial sciences and finance. The cooperation between mathematicians and statisticians working in insurance and finance is a very fruitful field and provides interesting scientific products in theoretical models and practical applications, as well as in scientific discussion of problems of national and international interest. This work reflects the results discussed at the biennial conference on Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance (MAF), born at the University of Salerno in 2004.
Author : David Hindley
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107076935
Total Pages : 513 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Claims Reserving in General Insurance written by David Hindley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a single comprehensive reference source covering the key material on this subject, and describing both theoretical and practical aspects.
Author : Greg Taylor
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780996889704
Total Pages : 100 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (897 download)
Download or read book Stochastic Loss Reserving Using Generalized Linear Models written by Greg Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2016-05-04 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this monograph, authors Greg Taylor and Gráinne McGuire discuss generalized linear models (GLM) for loss reserving, beginning with strong emphasis on the chain ladder. The chain ladder is formulated in a GLM context, as is the statistical distribution of the loss reserve. This structure is then used to test the need for departure from the chain ladder model and to consider natural extensions of the chain ladder model that lend themselves to the GLM framework.
Author : Mathias Lindholm
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Estimation of Conditional Mean Squared Error of Prediction for Claims Reserving written by Mathias Lindholm and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies estimation of conditional mean squared error of prediction, conditional on what is known at the time of prediction. The particular problem considered is the assessment of actuarial reserving methods given data in the form of runoff triangles (trapezoids), where the use of prediction assessment based on out-of-sample performance is not an option. The prediction assessment principle advocated here can be viewed as a generalization of Akaike's final prediction error. A direct application of this simple principle in the setting of a data generating process given in terms of a sequence of general linear models yields an estimator of conditional mean square error of prediction that can be computed explicitly for a wide range of models within this model class. Mack's distribution-free chain ladder model and the corresponding estimator of the prediction error for the ultimate claim amount is shown to be a special case. It is demonstrated that the prediction assessment principle easily applies to quite different data generating processes and results in estimators that have been studied in the literature.
Author : Greg Taylor
Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3039286641
Total Pages : 108 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (392 download)
Download or read book Claim Models written by Greg Taylor and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-04-15 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles addresses the most modern forms of loss reserving methodology: granular models and machine learning models. New methodologies come with questions about their applicability. These questions are discussed in one article, which focuses on the relative merits of granular and machine learning models. Others illustrate applications with real-world data. The examples include neural networks, which, though well known in some disciplines, have previously been limited in the actuarial literature. This volume expands on that literature, with specific attention to their application to loss reserving. For example, one of the articles introduces the application of neural networks of the gated recurrent unit form to the actuarial literature, whereas another uses a penalized neural network. Neural networks are not the only form of machine learning, and two other papers outline applications of gradient boosting and regression trees respectively. Both articles construct loss reserves at the individual claim level so that these models resemble granular models. One of these articles provides a practical application of the model to claim watching, the action of monitoring claim development and anticipating major features. Such watching can be used as an early warning system or for other administrative purposes. Overall, this volume is an extremely useful addition to the libraries of those working at the loss reserving frontier.
Author : David Hindley
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108514847
Total Pages : 514 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (85 download)
Download or read book Claims Reserving in General Insurance written by David Hindley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a comprehensive and accessible reference source that documents the theoretical and practical aspects of all the key deterministic and stochastic reserving methods that have been developed for use in general insurance. Worked examples and mathematical details are included, along with many of the broader topics associated with reserving in practice. The key features of reserving in a range of different contexts in the UK and elsewhere are also covered. The book contains material that will appeal to anyone with an interest in claims reserving. It can be used as a learning resource for actuarial students who are studying the relevant parts of their professional bodies' examinations, as well as by others who are new to the subject. More experienced insurance and other professionals can use the book to refresh or expand their knowledge in any of the wide range of reserving topics covered in the book.
Author : Guangyuan Gao
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9811336091
Total Pages : 210 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (113 download)
Download or read book Bayesian Claims Reserving Methods in Non-life Insurance with Stan written by Guangyuan Gao and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-31 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book first provides a review of various aspects of Bayesian statistics. It then investigates three types of claims reserving models in the Bayesian framework: chain ladder models, basis expansion models involving a tail factor, and multivariate copula models. For the Bayesian inferential methods, this book largely relies on Stan, a specialized software environment which applies Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method and variational Bayes.
Author : Marco Corazza
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331902499X
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance written by Marco Corazza and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-08-06 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The interaction between mathematicians and statisticians has been shown to be an effective approach for dealing with actuarial, insurance and financial problems, both from an academic perspective and from an operative one. The collection of original papers presented in this volume pursues precisely this purpose. It covers a wide variety of subjects in actuarial, insurance and finance fields, all treated in the light of the successful cooperation between the above two quantitative approaches. The papers published in this volume present theoretical and methodological contributions and their applications to real contexts. With respect to the theoretical and methodological contributions, some of the considered areas of investigation are: actuarial models; alternative testing approaches; behavioral finance; clustering techniques; coherent and non-coherent risk measures; credit scoring approaches; data envelopment analysis; dynamic stochastic programming; financial contagion models; financial ratios; intelligent financial trading systems; mixture normality approaches; Monte Carlo-based methods; multicriteria methods; nonlinear parameter estimation techniques; nonlinear threshold models; particle swarm optimization; performance measures; portfolio optimization; pricing methods for structured and non-structured derivatives; risk management; skewed distribution analysis; solvency analysis; stochastic actuarial valuation methods; variable selection models; time series analysis tools. As regards the applications, they are related to real problems associated, among the others, to: banks; collateralized fund obligations; credit portfolios; defined benefit pension plans; double-indexed pension annuities; efficient-market hypothesis; exchange markets; financial time series; firms; hedge funds; non-life insurance companies; returns distributions; socially responsible mutual funds; unit-linked contracts. This book is aimed at academics, Ph.D. students, practitioners, professionals and researchers. But it will also be of interest to readers with some quantitative background knowledge.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 396 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book ASTIN Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470035498
Total Pages : 2163 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment written by and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-02 with total page 2163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.
Author : Edward W. Frees
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139484931
Total Pages : 584 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)
Download or read book Regression Modeling with Actuarial and Financial Applications written by Edward W. Frees and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-11-30 with total page 584 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text gives budding actuaries and financial analysts a foundation in multiple regression and time series. They will learn about these statistical techniques using data on the demand for insurance, lottery sales, foreign exchange rates, and other applications. Although no specific knowledge of risk management or finance is presumed, the approach introduces applications in which statistical techniques can be used to analyze real data of interest. In addition to the fundamentals, this book describes several advanced statistical topics that are particularly relevant to actuarial and financial practice, including the analysis of longitudinal, two-part (frequency/severity), and fat-tailed data. Datasets with detailed descriptions, sample statistical software scripts in 'R' and 'SAS', and tips on writing a statistical report, including sample projects, can be found on the book's Web site: http://research.bus.wisc.edu/RegActuaries.
Author : Antonio Simone Laganà
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 2832553257
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (325 download)
Download or read book Ovarian Aging: Pathophysiology and Recent Development of Maintaining Ovarian Reserve, volume III written by Antonio Simone Laganà and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2024-08-16 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Age-related fertility decline is a striking phenomenon for women and there is an increasing tendency for later marriage and the postponement of childbearing in industrial countries. Many epidemiological observations also point out that almost one-tenth of reproductive-aged women require infertility treatment in these countries. Although the uterus is somewhat affected by ageing, the ageing ovary is considered a major but inevitable phenomenon. Consequently, preserving future fecundity is generally understood as preserving ovarian function; this is becoming a major concern for physicians specialized in reproductive medicine. Several chemicals have proved to improve or maintain the ovarian follicular pool, though the efficacy is still limited.
Author : Jens Perch Nielsen
Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3039364472
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (393 download)
Download or read book Machine Learning in Insurance written by Jens Perch Nielsen and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-12-02 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning is a relatively new field, without a unanimous definition. In many ways, actuaries have been machine learners. In both pricing and reserving, but also more recently in capital modelling, actuaries have combined statistical methodology with a deep understanding of the problem at hand and how any solution may affect the company and its customers. One aspect that has, perhaps, not been so well developed among actuaries is validation. Discussions among actuaries’ “preferred methods” were often without solid scientific arguments, including validation of the case at hand. Through this collection, we aim to promote a good practice of machine learning in insurance, considering the following three key issues: a) who is the client, or sponsor, or otherwise interested real-life target of the study? b) The reason for working with a particular data set and a clarification of the available extra knowledge, that we also call prior knowledge, besides the data set alone. c) A mathematical statistical argument for the validation procedure.
Author : Rob Kaas
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540867368
Total Pages : 394 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (48 download)
Download or read book Modern Actuarial Risk Theory written by Rob Kaas and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-12-03 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern Actuarial Risk Theory contains what every actuary needs to know about non-life insurance mathematics. It starts with the standard material like utility theory, individual and collective model and basic ruin theory. Other topics are risk measures and premium principles, bonus-malus systems, ordering of risks and credibility theory. It also contains some chapters about Generalized Linear Models, applied to rating and IBNR problems. As to the level of the mathematics, the book would fit in a bachelors or masters program in quantitative economics or mathematical statistics. This second and.
