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On The Optimal Adherence To Money Targets In A New Keynesian Framework
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Book Synopsis On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework by : Ms.Filiz Unsal
Download or read book On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework written by Ms.Filiz Unsal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with most practice. We extend the new-Keynesian model to provide a role for “M” in the conduct of monetary policy, and examine the conditions under which some adherence to money targets is optimal. In the spirit of Poole (1970), this role is based on the incompleteness of information available to the central bank, a pervasive issues in these countries. Ex-ante announcements/forecasts for money growth are consistent with a Taylor rule for the relevant short-term interest rate. Ex-post, the policy maker must choose his relative adherence to interest rate and money growth targets. Drawing on the method in Svensson and Woodford (2004), we show that the optimal adherence to ex-ante targets is equivalent to a signal extraction problem where the central bank uses the money market information to update its estimate of the state of the economy. We estimate the model, using Bayesian methods, for Tanzania, Uganda (both de jure money targeters), and Ghana (a de jure inflation targeter), and compare the de facto adherence to targets with the optimal use of money market information in each country.
Book Synopsis Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System by : Michal Andrle
Download or read book Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-25 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc). In the case of Kenya, we find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex-post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility. Our findings highlight the benefits of a model-based approach to monetary policy analysis in LICs, including in countries with money-targeting frameworks.
Book Synopsis Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-23 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Andrew Berg
Download or read book Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Andrew Berg and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-04-27 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa present unique monetary policy challenges, from the high share of volatile food in consumption to underdeveloped financial markets. This book draws on the International Monetary Fund's research and practice to uncover how monetary policy in this region currently operates, and what changes should be made.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics by : Célestin Monga
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics written by Célestin Monga and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 993 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A popular myth about the travails of Africa holds that the continent's long history of poor economic performance reflects the inability of its leaders and policymakers to fulfill the long list of preconditions to be met before sustained growth can be achieved. These conditions are said to vary from the necessary quantity and quality of physical and human capital to the appropriate institutions and business environments. While intellectually charming and often elegantly formulated, that conventional wisdom is actually contradicted by historical evidence and common sense. It also suggests a form of intellectual mimicry that posits a unique path to prosperity for all countries regardless of their level of development and economic structure. In fact, the argument underlining that reasoning is tautological, and the policy prescriptions derived from it are fatally teleological: low-income countries are by definition those where such ingredients are missing. None of today's high-income countries started its growth process with the "required" and complete list of growth ingredients. Unless one truly believes that the continent of Africa-and most developing countries-are ruled predominantly if not exclusively by plutocrats with a high propensity for sadomasochism, the conventional view must be re-examined, debated, and questioned. This volume-the second of the lOxford Handbook of Africa and Economics-reassesses the economic policies and practices observed across the continent since independence. It offers a collection of analyses by some of the leading economists and development thinkers of our time, and reflects a wide range of perspectives and viewpoints. Africa's emergence as a potential economic powerhouse in the years and decades ahead amply justifies the scope and ambition of the book.
Book Synopsis A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo by : Victor Musa
Download or read book A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo written by Victor Musa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-06-21 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper introduces a semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) tailored for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), highlighting its resource richness and high degree of dollarization. We provide an overview of the model's specifications to elucidate key features of the DRC economy and present its properties, evaluating its alignment with DRC data and assessing its goodness of fit. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the QPM's practical application through a counterfactual scenario, comparing policy recommendations with the actual policy responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Congo to observed exchange rate and inflation pressures in 2023. Beyond the QPM, the paper showcases supplementary tools that enhance its utility for generating medium-term forecasts and developiong narratives in support of monetary policymaking. Specifically, we introduce the Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecast models, designed to assess the economy in real-time and predict short-term inflationary trends.
Download or read book VAR meets DSGE written by Bin Grace Li and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-11 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: VAR methods suggest that the monetary transmission mechanism may be weak and unreliable in low-income countries (LICs). But are structural VARs identified via short-run restrictions capable of detecting a transmission mechanism when one exists, under research conditions typical of these countries? Using small DSGEs as data-generating processes, we assess the impact on VAR-based inference of short data samples, measurement error, high-frequency supply shocks, and other features of the LIC environment. The impact of these features on finite-sample bias appears to be relatively modest when identification is valid—a strong caveat, especially in LICs. However, many of these features undermine the precision of estimated impulse responses to monetary policy shocks, and cumulatively they suggest that “insignificant” results can be expected even when the underlying transmission mechanism is strong.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy in Low Financial Development Countries by : Juan-Antonio Morales
Download or read book Monetary Policy in Low Financial Development Countries written by Juan-Antonio Morales and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2021 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book gives a broad coverage of the monetary policy issues in Low Financial Development Countries (LFDCs). These low and lower middle income countries are characterized by a predominance of bank finance, shallow financial markets, low financial inclusion, weak integration with world capital markets and a high degree of informality in economic activity. Monetary policy acquires special twists, making it different in many aspects from the policies followed in advanced and emerging market economies. The book covers the main facets of monetary policy making, using an approach that combines the discussion of theoretical arguments, of results from empirical studies and of policy experiences relevant for LFDCs. The book presents the monetary policy instruments they use and assesses the specificities of their monetary transmission mechanism. It evaluates the advantages, drawbacks and challenges of the different nominal anchors they may choose from: exchange rate targeting, monetary targeting and inflation targeting. This discussion is set against the background of the three main goals pursued by central banks: price, output and financial stability. Particular attention is devoted to the issue of the credibility of central banks and to the trade-offs they face when external shocks, to which these countries are very vulnerable, lead to conflicts among the three goals they pursue. The book also covers more specific topics, such as the challenges raised by fiscal dominance and by dollarization, the implications of informal labor markets and of microfinance institutions for monetary policy-making and the role of models for forecasting and policy evaluation.
Book Synopsis Money As Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest by : Mr.Helge Berger
Download or read book Money As Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest written by Mr.Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The natural interest rate is of great relevance to central banks, but it is difficult to measure. We show that in a standard microfounded monetary model, the natural interest rate co-moves with a transformation of the money demand that can be computed from actual data. The co-movement is of a considerable magnitude and independent of monetary policy. An optimizing central bank that does not observe the natural interest rate can take advantage of this co-movement by incorporating the transformed money demand, in addition to the observed output gap and inflation, into a simple but optimal interest rate rule. Combining the transformed money demand and the observed output gap provides the best information about the natural interest rate.
Book Synopsis Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries by : Michal Andrle
Download or read book Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-07 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps)—including for the international and domestic relative price of food. Second, we use the filtration exercise to recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. Third, we perform an out-of-sample forecast to identify where the economy—and therefore policy—was likely headed given the inflationary pressures at the end of our sample (2011Q2). We find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate. The model correctly predicted that a policy tightening was required, although the actual interest rate increase was larger. We discuss implications for the use of model-based policy analysis in low income countries.
Book Synopsis Risk and the Rupee in Pakistan's New Economy by : Antonia Settle
Download or read book Risk and the Rupee in Pakistan's New Economy written by Antonia Settle and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-10-29 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores how economic liberalisation impacts the everyday economic life of ordinary people and why it undermines the development agenda.
Book Synopsis Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics by : Vladik Kreinovich
Download or read book Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics written by Vladik Kreinovich and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-24 with total page 1167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents recent research on probabilistic methods in economics, from machine learning to statistical analysis. Economics is a very important – and at the same a very difficult discipline. It is not easy to predict how an economy will evolve or to identify the measures needed to make an economy prosper. One of the main reasons for this is the high level of uncertainty: different difficult-to-predict events can influence the future economic behavior. To make good predictions and reasonable recommendations, this uncertainty has to be taken into account. In the past, most related research results were based on using traditional techniques from probability and statistics, such as p-value-based hypothesis testing. These techniques led to numerous successful applications, but in the last decades, several examples have emerged showing that these techniques often lead to unreliable and inaccurate predictions. It is therefore necessary to come up with new techniques for processing the corresponding uncertainty that go beyond the traditional probabilistic techniques. This book focuses on such techniques, their economic applications and the remaining challenges, presenting both related theoretical developments and their practical applications.
Book Synopsis The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics by : Mr.Andrew Berg
Download or read book The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics written by Mr.Andrew Berg and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-09-20 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary transmission in such countries. Here we take a narrative approach, following Romer and Romer (1989), and center on a significant tightening of monetary policy that took place in 2011 in four members of the East African Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. We find clear evidence of the transmission mechanism in most of the countries, and argue that deviations can be explained by differences in the policy regime in place.
Book Synopsis Interest and Prices by : Michael Woodford
Download or read book Interest and Prices written by Michael Woodford and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-12 with total page 805 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure "fiat" currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime--one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the "New Classical" critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.
Book Synopsis Money: Theory and Practice by : Jin Cao
Download or read book Money: Theory and Practice written by Jin Cao and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-12-07 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook provides an introduction to modern monetary economics for advanced undergraduates, highlighting the lessons learned from the recent financial crisis. The book presents both the core New Keynesian model and recent advances, taking into account financial frictions, and discusses recent research on an intuitive level based on simple static and two-period models, but also prepares readers for an extension to a truly dynamic analysis. Further, it offers a systematic perspective on monetary policy, covering a wide range of models to help readers gain a better understanding of controversial issues. Part I examines the long-run perspective, addressing classical monetary policy issues such as determination of the price level and interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Part II introduces the core New Keynesian model, characterizing optimal monetary policy to stabilize short-term shocks. It discusses rules vs. discretion and the challenges arising from control errors, imperfect information and robustness issues. It also analyzes optimal control in the presence of an effective lower bound. Part III focuses on modelling financial frictions. It identifies the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy via banking and introduces models with incomplete markets, principal-agent problems, maturity mismatch and leverage cycles, to show why investors’ and intermediaries’ own stakes play a key role in lending with pro-cyclical features. In addition, it presents a tractable model for handling liquidity management and demonstrates that the need to sell assets in crisis amplifies the volatility of the real economy. Lastly, the book discusses the relation between monetary policy and financial stability, addressing systemic risk and the role of macro-prudential regulation.
Book Synopsis What Can Low-Income Countries Expect From Adopting Inflation Targeting? by : Mr.Edward R. Gemayel
Download or read book What Can Low-Income Countries Expect From Adopting Inflation Targeting? written by Mr.Edward R. Gemayel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation targeting (IT) is a relatively new monetary policy framework for low-income countries (LICs). The limited number of LICs with an IT framework and the short time that has elapsed since the adoption of this framework explains why there are no previous empirical studies on the performance of IT in LICs. This paper has made a first attempt at filling this gap. It finds that inflation targeting appears to be associated with lower inflation and inflation volatility. At the same time, there is no robust evidence of an adverse impact on output. This may explain the appeal of IT for many LICs, where building credibility of monetary policy is difficult and minimizing output costs of reducing inflation is imperative for social and political reasons.
Book Synopsis Keynes, the Keynesians and Monetarism by : Tim Congdon
Download or read book Keynes, the Keynesians and Monetarism written by Tim Congdon and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2007 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''Keynes, the Keynesians and Monetarism is an intriguing miscellaneous of essays by one of Britain''s leading monetarist economists in the 1980s and in the 1990s. The book indeed brings together the main academic papers written by the author revising and up-to-dating the previous collection titled, Reflections on Monetarism, with the new papers published in the first years of 2000. The book by this "advocate" of monetarism is very often appealing and provocative, covering topics that are fundamental to macroeconomic thinking and policy-making. . . certainly appealing for macroeconomists and researchers. . .'' Lino Sau, History of Economic Ideas ''In the context of the current economic climate, this volume provides an excellent opportunity for reappraising the arguments on both sides of the debate. . . The importance of this volume is that it provides the interested reader with an excellent summary of the monetarist position prior to the current crisis.'' Economic Outlook and Business Review ''Tim Congdon has been Britain''s leading monetarist for about three decades. . . He has a sharp eye for statistics, for history, for the twists and flows of intellectual fads, and for the political arena where debate hardens suddenly into the stone of decision. He is subtle, practical, bellicose and highly articulate. This volume is vintage Congdon in every sense.'' Peter Sinclair, The Business Economist ''Tim Congdon''s book revisits the intellectual battlefields of British monetary theory and policy. A doughty advocate of monetarism, he is stimulating, controversial and entertaining.'' Charles Goodhart, London School of Economics and Political Science, UK ''Whether rescuing Keynes from the "Keynesians" or finding support in his earlier works for a distinctly British version of Monetarism, Tim Congdon writes with engaging and provocative enthusiasm. This is a timely collection too, coming from a long-standing exponent of ideas that policy makers are once again beginning to take seriously. It deserves the careful attention of anyone interested in British monetary policy.'' David Laidler, University of Western Ontario, Canada ''As with all Tim Congdon''s writing, beautifully written and vigorously argued.'' Robert Sidelsky, author of the biography John Maynard Keynes: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman Keynes, the Keynesians and Monetarism is a major contribution to the continuing debate on macroeconomic policy-making. Tim Congdon has been a strong supporter of monetarist economic principles for over 30 years. His writings in the newspapers and for parliamentary committees, as well as in academic journals played an influential role in the transformation of British macroeconomic policy in the 1980s and 1990s. This book brings together the main papers written by the author since his 1992 collection, Reflections on Monetarism. It challenges several ''conventional wisdoms'' about UK macroeconomic policy (and thinking about policy), arguing for example that the Keynesians'' advocacy of incomes policy and fiscal activism in the immediate post-war decades did not have a clear basis in Keynes''s own writings. The book denies that the UK had a ''Keynesian revolution'', in the sense of a deliberately pursued fiscal activism to promote ''full employment''. Implicit throughout the volume is a distinctive view of how the economy works, with an account of the transmission mechanism (from money to the economy) in which movements in asset prices and aggregate demand are strongly influenced by the quantity of money. Congdon uses this approach to demonstrate that monetary policy has had more powerful effects on macroeconomic activity in the post-war period than fiscal policy. He also suggests that the now fashionable ''New Keynesian'' view of policy-making acknowledges the primacy of monetary policy and would be better termed ''output gap monetarism''. In short, Keynes, the Keynesians and Monetarism contends that monetarism defeated Keynesianism in the battle of ideas in the 1970s and 1980s. The achievement of greater macroeconomic stability in the last 15 years is largely due to the impact of monetarist thinking on policy-making. The book is clearly and attractively written, and covers topics that are fundamental to macroeconomic thinking and policy-making. It will be a provocative and appealing read for scholars at all levels of economics, macroeconomics and monetary theory. It will also find an audience among policymakers in central banks and finance ministries, business economists working in companies, and financial economists in the City of London and other centres.
