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On The Evaluation Of Forecasting Performance
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Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Book Synopsis Business Forecasting by : Michael Gilliland
Download or read book Business Forecasting written by Michael Gilliland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.
Book Synopsis Principles of Forecasting by : J.S. Armstrong
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Book Synopsis Renewable Energy Forecasting by : Georges Kariniotakis
Download or read book Renewable Energy Forecasting written by Georges Kariniotakis and published by Woodhead Publishing. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. - Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume - Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries - Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting - Contains chapters on operational applications
Book Synopsis Intermittent Demand Forecasting by : John E. Boylan
Download or read book Intermittent Demand Forecasting written by John E. Boylan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-06-02 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
Book Synopsis Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 567 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Book Synopsis Quality Measures in Data Mining by : Fabrice Guillet
Download or read book Quality Measures in Data Mining written by Fabrice Guillet and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-01-08 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents recent advances in quality measures in data mining.
Book Synopsis Advances in Business and Management Forecasting by : Kenneth D. Lawrence
Download or read book Advances in Business and Management Forecasting written by Kenneth D. Lawrence and published by JAI Press Incorporated. This book was released on 2006-02-17 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aims to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing, and strategic decision making. The topics in this title include: sales and marketing, forecasting, new product forecasting, judgmentally based forecasting, the application of surveys to forecasting, and more.
Book Synopsis Sales Forecasting Management by : John T. Mentzer
Download or read book Sales Forecasting Management written by John T. Mentzer and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2004-11-23 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Incorporating 25 years of sales forecasting management research with more than 400 companies, Sales Forecasting Management, Second Edition is the first text to truly integrate the theory and practice of sales forecasting management. This research includes the personal experiences of John T. Mentzer and Mark A. Moon in advising companies how to improve their sales forecasting management practices. Their program of research includes two major surveys of companies′ sales forecasting practices, a two-year, in-depth study of sales forecasting management practices of 20 major companies, and an ongoing study of how to apply the findings from the two-year study to conducting sales forecasting audits of additional companies. The book provides comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sales forecasting analysis, combined with a managerial focus to give managers and users of the sales forecasting function a clear understanding of the forecasting needs of all business functions. New to This Edition: The author′s well-regarded Multicaster software system demo, previously available on cassette, has been updated and is now available for download from the authors′ Web site New insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting are presented The results of additional surveys done since the publication of the first edition have been added The discussion of the four dimensions of forecasting management has been significantly enhanced Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition. Sales Forecasting Management is an ideal text for graduate courses in sales forecasting management. Practitioners in marketing, sales, finance/accounting, production/purchasing, and logistics will also find this easy-to-understand volume essential.
Book Synopsis Explanatory Model Analysis by : Przemyslaw Biecek
Download or read book Explanatory Model Analysis written by Przemyslaw Biecek and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-02-15 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explanatory Model Analysis Explore, Explain and Examine Predictive Models is a set of methods and tools designed to build better predictive models and to monitor their behaviour in a changing environment. Today, the true bottleneck in predictive modelling is neither the lack of data, nor the lack of computational power, nor inadequate algorithms, nor the lack of flexible models. It is the lack of tools for model exploration (extraction of relationships learned by the model), model explanation (understanding the key factors influencing model decisions) and model examination (identification of model weaknesses and evaluation of model's performance). This book presents a collection of model agnostic methods that may be used for any black-box model together with real-world applications to classification and regression problems.
Book Synopsis Mining Data for Financial Applications by : Valerio Bitetta
Download or read book Mining Data for Financial Applications written by Valerio Bitetta and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-01-14 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes revised selected papers from the 5th Workshop on Mining Data for Financial Applications, MIDAS 2020, held in conjunction with ECML PKDD 2020, in Ghent, Belgium, in September 2020.* The 8 full and 3 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 15 submissions. They deal with challenges, potentialities, and applications of leveraging data-mining tasks regarding problems in the financial domain. *The workshop was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic. “Information Extraction from the GDELT Database to Analyse EU Sovereign Bond Markets” and “Exploring the Predictive Power of News and Neural Machine Learning Models for Economic Forecasting” are available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.
Book Synopsis Elements of Forecasting by : Francis X. Diebold
Download or read book Elements of Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and published by South-Western Pub. This book was released on 2007 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ELEMENTARY FORECASTING focuses on the core techniques of widest applicability. The author illustrates all methods with detailed real-world applications, many of them international in flavor, designed to mimic typical forecasting situations.
Book Synopsis Soft Computing and Industry by : Rajkumar Roy
Download or read book Soft Computing and Industry written by Rajkumar Roy and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 862 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Soft computing embraces various methodologies for the development of intelligent systems that have been successfully applied to a large number of real-world problems. Soft Computing in Industry contains a collection of papers that were presented at the 6th On-line World Conference on Soft Computing in Industrial Applications that was held in September 2001. It provides a comprehensive overview of recent theoretical developments in soft computing as well as of successful industrial applications. It is divided into seven parts covering material on: keynote papers on various subjects ranging from computing with autopoietic systems to the effects of the Internet on education; intelligent control; classification, clustering and optimization; image and signal processing; agents, multimedia and Internet; theoretical advances; prediction, design and diagnosis. The book is aimed at researchers and professional engineers who develop and apply intelligent systems in computer engineering.
Book Synopsis Neural Networks in Business Forecasting by : G. Peter Zhang
Download or read book Neural Networks in Business Forecasting written by G. Peter Zhang and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is one of the most important activities that form the basis for strategic, tactical, and operational decisions in all business organizations. Recently, neural networks have emerged as an important tool for business forecasting. Neural Networks in Business Forecasting provides researchers and practitioners with some recent advances in applying neural networks to business forecasting. A number of case studies demonstrating the innovative or successful applications of neural networks to many areas of business as well as methods to improve neural network forecasting performance are presented.
Book Synopsis Applied Economic Forecasting by : Henri Theil
Download or read book Applied Economic Forecasting written by Henri Theil and published by . This book was released on 1966 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subjects covered include econometric macromodels, preliminary estimates of recent changes input-outputs, forecast applications of information concepts and various survey techniques dealing ...
Book Synopsis Regression and Time Series Model Selection by : Allan D. R. McQuarrie
Download or read book Regression and Time Series Model Selection written by Allan D. R. McQuarrie and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1998 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important book describes procedures for selecting a model from a large set of competing statistical models. It includes model selection techniques for univariate and multivariate regression models, univariate and multivariate autoregressive models, nonparametric (including wavelets) and semiparametric regression models, and quasi-likelihood and robust regression models. Information-based model selection criteria are discussed, and small sample and asymptotic properties are presented. The book also provides examples and large scale simulation studies comparing the performances of information-based model selection criteria, bootstrapping, and cross-validation selection methods over a wide range of models.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by : Douglas C. Montgomery
Download or read book Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting written by Douglas C. Montgomery and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts. Seven easy-to-follow chapters provide intuitive explanations and in-depth coverage of key forecasting topics, including: Regression-based methods, heuristic smoothing methods, and general time series models Basic statistical tools used in analyzing time series data Metrics for evaluating forecast errors and methods for evaluating and tracking forecasting performance over time Cross-section and time series regression data, least squares and maximum likelihood model fitting, model adequacy checking, prediction intervals, and weighted and generalized least squares Exponential smoothing techniques for time series with polynomial components and seasonal data Forecasting and prediction interval construction with a discussion on transfer function models as well as intervention modeling and analysis Multivariate time series problems, ARCH and GARCH models, and combinations of forecasts The ARIMA model approach with a discussion on how to identify and fit these models for non-seasonal and seasonal time series The intricate role of computer software in successful time series analysis is acknowledged with the use of Minitab, JMP, and SAS software applications, which illustrate how the methods are imple-mented in practice. An extensive FTP site is available for readers to obtain data sets, Microsoft Office PowerPoint slides, and selected answers to problems in the book. Requiring only a basic working knowledge of statistics and complete with exercises at the end of each chapter as well as examples from a wide array of fields, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting is an ideal text for forecasting and time series courses at the advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate levels. The book also serves as an indispensable reference for practitioners in business, economics, engineering, statistics, mathematics, and the social, environmental, and life sciences.
