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Author : Norman J. Asher
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (28 download)
Download or read book On Estimating the Cost Growth of Weapon Systems written by Norman J. Asher and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mark V. Arena
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833039253
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by Mark V. Arena and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.
Author : Obaid Younossi
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833041355
Total Pages : 142 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)
Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? written by Obaid Younossi and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.
Author : Joseph George Bolten
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833042890
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph George Bolten and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.
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Author : United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Cost Growth in Major Weapon Systems [in The] Department of Defense written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Neil M. Singer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Cost Growth in Weapon Systems written by Neil M. Singer and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Weapons Cost written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (15 download)
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The report complements another document from this project, "Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems," and includes a literature review of cost growth studies and a more extensive analysis of the historical cost growth in acquisition programs than appears in the companion report. Overall, most of the studies reviewed reported that actual costs were greater than estimates of baseline costs. The most common metric used to measure cost growth is the cost growth factor (CGF), which is defined as the ratio of the actual cost to the estimated costs. A CGF of less than 1.0 indicates that the estimate was higher than the actual cost -- an underrun. When the CGF exceeds 1.0, the actual costs were higher than the estimate -- an overrun. Studies of weapon system cost growth have mainly relied on data from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). These reports are prepared annually by all major defense acquisition program (MDAP) offices within the military services to provide the U.S. Congress with cost, schedule, and performance status. The comparison baseline (estimate) typically corresponds to a major acquisition decision milestone. Prior studies have reported Milestone (MS) II CGFs for development costs ranging from 1.16 to 2.26; estimates of procurement CGFs ranging from 1.16 to 1.65; and total program CGFs ranging from 1.20 to 1.54. Regarding the differences among cost growth due to service, weapon, and time period, prior studies tended to find the following: Army weapon systems had higher cost growth than did weapon systems for the Air Force or Navy; cost growth differs by equipment type; and cost growth has declined from the 1960s and 1970s, after it was recognized as an important problem.
Author : Paul G. Hough
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Birth of a Profession written by Paul G. Hough and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 97 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (227 download)
Download or read book An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Governmental Affairs
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (17 download)
Download or read book Management of the Department of Defense: Cost estimating and cost reporting in DOD weapon programs written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Governmental Affairs and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 132 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)
Download or read book DOD Needs to Provide More Credible Weapon Systems Cost Estimates to the Congress written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (227 download)
Download or read book An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
Author : Bobby J. Pannell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (516 download)
Download or read book A Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting Weapon System Cost Growth written by Bobby J. Pannell and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis quantitatively analyzes the factors that affect weapon system cost growth after Milestone 2. The data from nine weapon systems was reconstructed by the Army and Navy from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) with the cost variances reclassified into a new categorization system to more readily determine the causes of cost growth. Each cost variance was classified as to whether it was attributable to a mistake in the cost estimating process or a post-Milestone 2 decision, with further classification into subcategories for a more detailed analysis. The cost variances were divided by the Milestone 2 Decision Estimate (DE) to form a cost growth ratio (CGR). The findings reveal that the Department of Defense has about 10.8% cost growth in the procurement process. Cost growth due to decisions outweigh mistakes by a factor of 2.3:1. A majority of the mistake cost growth is due to errors in the estimation of production costs. A majority of the decision cost growth is due to schedule slippage. Low cost systems have 2.4 times as much mistake cost growth as high cost systems. Newer missile systems have significantly less mistake cost growth when compared to other systems. Lastly, the Army and Navy have approximately equal cost growth on their newer systems. Cost.
Author : United States. Government Accountability Office
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437936547
Total Pages : 73 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)
Download or read book Defense Management: DOD Needs Better Information and Guidance to More Effectively Manage and Reduce Operating and Support Costs of Major Weapon Systems written by United States. Government Accountability Office and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Report examining growth in operating and support (O&S) costs of major DOD weapons systems, and identifying measures to improve DOD ability to manage and reduce O&S costs of weapons systems over their life cycle.
Author : Matthew B. Rossetti
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781423516279
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (162 download)
Download or read book Logistic and Multiple Regression written by Matthew B. Rossetti and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research confirms the usefulness of the logistic and multiple regression two-step procedure for assessing cost growth in major DoD weapon systems. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2002 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the procurement appropriations of the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisitions. We investigate the use of logistic regression in cost growth analysis to predict whether or not cost growth will occur in a program. If applicable, multiple regression is implemented to predict how much cost growth will occur. Our study focuses on the estimating and support SAR cost variance categories within the procurement appropriations. We study each of these categories individually for significant cost growth characteristics and develop predictive models for each.
Author : Paul G. Hough
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Pitfalls in Calculating Cost Growth from Selected Acquisition Reports written by Paul G. Hough and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth is a highly visible phenomenon in the procurement of major weapon systems. In general, cost growth is the ratio of a weapon system's current estimate of cost to that of some earlier estimate. Thus, even given the same current estimate, different measures of cost growth are possible, depending on which prior estimate is selected as the baseline. Most studies of cost growth, however, select the cost estimate made at the time of program entry into full-scale development (the development estimate) as the baseline. Both the current estimate and the development estimate are normally taken from the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR), a legally mandated summary report on the status of major acquisition programs. This Note identifies and explains the type of cost data found in the SAR and reviews the history of the SAR with respect to cost reporting. In spite of changes that have improved the quality and comprehensiveness of the data in the SAR, it still presents difficulties for measuring cost growth. Among the most notable problems are failure of some programs to use a consistent baseline cost estimate, exclusion of some significant elements of cost, exclusion of certain classes of major programs, and constantly changing preparation guidelines. Nevertheless, the author concludes that SAR data are suitable for identifying broad-based trends and temporal patterns across a range of programs.
