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Okun In The Euro New Evidence From Structural Okun Laws Estimates For The Euro Area 1979 2019
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Book Synopsis Okun in the Euro: New Evidence from Structural Okun Law’s Estimates for the Euro Area, 1979-2019 by : Nauro F. Campos
Download or read book Okun in the Euro: New Evidence from Structural Okun Law’s Estimates for the Euro Area, 1979-2019 written by Nauro F. Campos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-08-09 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new estimates of Okun’s unemployment-output relationship in euro area countries between 1979 and 2019. We find our structural estimates are stable but substantially lower than the reduced-form estimates that tend to characterise the literature and that the responsiveness of output to unemployment is driven by idiosyncratic factors in both euro core and periphery countries. The results are robust to conditioning on wage bargaining institutional set-ups and, yet, in the euro periphery, we find product market regulation as playing a major role in explaining the significance of Okun’s law estimates across countries.
Book Synopsis Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups by : Zidong An
Download or read book Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups written by Zidong An and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.
Book Synopsis How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Download or read book Okun's Law written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-14 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
Book Synopsis Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers During COVID-19 Times by : Vizhdan Boranova
Download or read book Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers During COVID-19 Times written by Vizhdan Boranova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-01-14 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers during COVID-19 Times
Book Synopsis Gender Budgeting in G20 Countries by : Virginia Alonso-Albarran
Download or read book Gender Budgeting in G20 Countries written by Virginia Alonso-Albarran and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Achieving gender equality remains a significant challenge, that has only deepened with the on-set of the COVID-19 pandemic. Gender budgeting (GB) can help promote gender equality by applying a gender perspective to fiscal policies and the budget process. This paper takes stock of GB practices in G20 countries and benchmarks country performance using a GB index and data gathered from an IMF survey. All G20 countries have enacted gender focused fiscal policies but the public financial management (PFM) tools to operationalize these policies are far less established. We find that notwithstanding heterogeneity across countries, the average G20 level of GB practice is relatively low. More progress has been made establishing GB frameworks and budget preparation tools than with budget execution, monitoring and auditing. Too few countries assess the upfront impact of policies on gender and/or evaluate ex-post the effectiveness of policies and programs. Where GB features are in place, they tend to operate as an ‘add-on’, rather than a strategic and integral part of resource allocation decisions. Progress with GB does not appear to be dependent on the level of country development. Key to future efforts will be harnessing opportunities for integrating GB tools into existing PFM systems and more closely linking GB initiatives with PFM reforms.
Book Synopsis For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation by : Mr. Andrew Berg
Download or read book For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation written by Mr. Andrew Berg and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-16 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many studies predict massive job losses and real wage decline as a result of the ongoing widespread automation of production, a trend that may be further aggravated by the COVID-19 crisis. Yet automation is also expected to raise productivity and output. How can we share the gains from automation more widely, for the benefit of all? And what are the attendant equity-efficiency trade-offs? We analyze this issue by considering the effects of fiscal policies that seek to redistribute the gains from automation and address income inequality. We use a dynamic general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition, including a novel specification linking corporate power to automation. While fiscal policy cannot eliminate the classic equity-efficiency trade-offs, it can help improve them, reducing inequality at small or no loss of output. This is particularly so when policy takes advantage of novel, less distortive transmission channels of fiscal policy created by the empirically observed link between corporate market power and automation.
Book Synopsis Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-10 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various countries. Furthermore, revisions to unemployment forecasts are negatively correlated with revisions to real GDP forecasts. These results are based on forecasts taken from Consensus Economics for nine advanced countries since 1989.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Policy Studies: Review Annual by : Bruce B. Zellner
Download or read book Policy Studies: Review Annual written by Bruce B. Zellner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-01-22 with total page 800 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every editor of the Policy Studies Review Annual brings a unique perspective to bear in selecting articles to be included. This perspective reflects varying methodological and disciplinary judgments, varying judgments on what the field of policy studies or policy analysis is and where it should be going, and varying judgments regarding the quality of articles which are or claim to be in the field. Because it is the objective to assemble a set of essays which are both interesting and topical, there will be varying perspectives on these matters as well. The volume clearly reflects the editors perspectives. They are explicit about these judgments and perspectives, and then let the content of the volume speak for itself. First, we are both economists. As a result, the general topics selected and the articles chosen under each topic tend to emphasize economics more than the other disciplines involved in the field of policy studies—sociology, psychology, political science, law, and so on. This emphasis is clearly seen by comparing the contents of volume I (edited by Stuart Nagel, a political scientist) and volume II (edited by Howard Freeman, a sociologist) with that of this volume. Second, the editors have a particular view of what policy studies or policy analysis is. That view has several aspects. In the first place, they feel that the field of policy studies or policy analysis must define itself, and this definition will develop as researchers do just what the title of the field says—study or analyze policies. A corollary of this view is that we place a low weight on papers which discuss the policy process or reforms in policy-making, relative to papers which analyze a policy, a policy proposal, or a problem which leads to calls for policy action.
Book Synopsis Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics by : Carlo Giannini
Download or read book Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics written by Carlo Giannini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. Introduction 1 2. Identification Analysis and F.I.M.L. Estimation for the K-Mode1 10 3. Identification Analysis and F.I.ML. Estimation for the C-Model 23 4. Identification Analysis and F.I.M.L. Estimation for the AB-Model 32 5. Impulse Response Analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition in SVAR Modeling 44 5 .a Impulse Response Analysis 44 5.b Variance Decomposition (by Antonio Lanzarotti) 51 6. Long-run A-priori Information. Deterministic Components. Cointegration 58 6.a Long-run A-priori Information 58 6.b Deterministic Components 62 6.c Cointegration 65 7. The Working of an AB-Model 71 Annex 1: The Notions ofReduced Form and Structure in Structural VAR Modeling 83 Annex 2: Some Considerations on the Semantics, Choice and Management of the K, C and AB-Models 87 Appendix A 93 Appendix B 96 Appendix C (by Antonio Lanzarotti and Mario Seghelini) 99 Appendix D (by Antonio Lanzarotti and Mario Seghelini) 109 References 128 Foreword In recent years a growing interest in the structural VAR approach (SVAR) has followed the path-breaking works by Blanchard and Watson (1986), Bemanke (1986) and Sims (1986), especially in U.S. applied macroeconometric literature. The approach can be used in two different, partially overlapping directions: the interpretation ofbusiness cycle fluctuations of a small number of significantmacroeconomic variables and the identification of the effects of different policies.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Econometrics of Structural Change by : Walter Krämer
Download or read book Econometrics of Structural Change written by Walter Krämer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric models are made up of assumptions which never exactly match reality. Among the most contested ones is the requirement that the coefficients of an econometric model remain stable over time. Recent years have therefore seen numerous attempts to test for it or to model possible structural change when it can no longer be ignored. This collection of papers from Empirical Economics mirrors part of this development. The point of departure of most studies in this volume is the standard linear regression model Yt = x;fJt + U (t = I, ... , 1), t where notation is obvious and where the index t emphasises the fact that structural change is mostly discussed and encountered in a time series context. It is much less of a problem for cross section data, although many tests apply there as well. The null hypothesis of most tests for structural change is that fJt = fJo for all t, i.e. that the same regression applies to all time periods in the sample and that the disturbances u are well behaved. The well known Chow test for instance assumes t that there is a single structural shift at a known point in time, i.e. that fJt = fJo (t
Book Synopsis Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks by : Davide Debortoli
Download or read book Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks written by Davide Debortoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-21 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Book Synopsis The European Central Bank between the Financial Crisis and Populisms by : Corrado Macchiarelli
Download or read book The European Central Bank between the Financial Crisis and Populisms written by Corrado Macchiarelli and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-25 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In light of the handover from the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to Christine Lagarde in November 2019, this book provides an in-depth analysis of the events which unfolded since the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2010 up until today. The book focuses on the far-reaching implications of the last decade, shedding light on a wide spectrum of political, economic and financial aspects of the European poly-crises and how monetary policy reacted to these challenges. The book places particular emphasis on the tensions that the supranational central bank was subject to during this period, and on their outcomes in terms of the policies, their legitimacy, and their public reception. As such, this book will be relevant not only to understand the political implications of the past crisis but also, and foremost, in understanding "what is next".
Book Synopsis Making Globalization Work by : Joseph E. Stiglitz
Download or read book Making Globalization Work written by Joseph E. Stiglitz and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2007-08-28 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nobel Prize winner Stiglitz focuses on policies that truly work and offers fresh, new thinking about the questions that shape the globalization debate.
Book Synopsis Non-linear Time Series by : Howell Tong
Download or read book Non-linear Time Series written by Howell Tong and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1990 with total page 592 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by an internationally recognized expert in the field, this book provides a valuable introduction to the rapidly growing area of non-linear time series. Because developments in the study of dynamical systems have motivated many of the advances discussed here, the author's coverage includes such fundamental concepts of dynamical systems theory as limit cycles, Lyapunov functions, thresholds, and stability, with detailed descriptions of their role in the analysis of non-linear time series data. As the first accessible and comprehensive account of these exciting new developments, this unique volume bridges the gap between linear and chaotic time series analysis. Both statisticians and dynamical systems theorists will value its survey of recent developments and the present state of research, as well as the discussion of a number of unsolved problems in the field.
