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Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike Disentangling The Effects Of Demand And Supply Side Policies On Future Oil Prices
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Book Synopsis Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices by : Lukas Boer
Download or read book Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices written by Lukas Boer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-04 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use structural scenario analysis to show that the climate policy mix—supply-side versus demand-side policies—can lead to different oil price paths with diverging distributional consequences in a netzero emissions scenario. When emission reduction is driven by demand-side policies, prices would decline to around 25 USD per barrel in 2030, benefiting consuming countries. Vice versa, supply-side climate policies aimed at curbing oil production would push up prices to above 130 USD per barrel, benefiting those producing countries that take the political decision to keep on producing. Consequently, it is wrong to assume that oil prices will necessarily decline due to the clean energy transition. As policies are mostly formulated at the country level and hard to predict at the global level, the transition will raise uncertainty about the price outlook.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :37 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Colombia by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Colombia written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-28 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues
Book Synopsis Energy Transition Metals by : Lukas Boer
Download or read book Energy Transition Metals written by Lukas Boer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-12 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
Book Synopsis Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters During the Energy Transition by : Diego Mesa Puyo
Download or read book Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters During the Energy Transition written by Diego Mesa Puyo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-27 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global energy transition is affecting fossil fuel exporters from multiple angles. It is adding to longstanding uncertainties on relative movements of fossil fuel demand and supply—which impact fossil fuel-related exports, fiscal flows, investment and subsequently external and fiscal accounts, economic growth, and employment. While policymakers are very familiar with these challenges, they now also face expectations of a permanent decline in the long-run global demand for fossil fuels. Key factors that could determine country-level impacts include (i) the type of fossil fuel a country exports (ii) extraction costs and (iii) country characteristics. The monitoring and mitigation of fiscal risks will need to be stepped up. Fiscal policy also has a role in reducing domestic emissions, encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies, and helping those most vulnerable to changes from the transition. Broader macroeconomic risks can be reduced by accelerating ongoing structural reforms that support alternative engines of growth. Low- or zero-carbon emission energy industries could offer new avenues that build on existing fossil fuel knowledge and infrastructure. Concurrently, improved financial regulation and supervision could reduce financial sector exposures. Finally, international coordination on the design and implementation of climate policy as well as international transfer schemes (financing and capacity development) could reduce uncertainties surrounding the transition path and associated adverse economic consequences.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :105 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Mexico by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Mexico written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A broad-based expansion is underway, with robust domestic demand. Inflation has started to recede, and prudent fiscal policy has kept public debt in check. The changes underway in the global economy—including a shift to a lower carbon economy and the reshaping of supply chains—provide an important opportunity for Mexico. However, a broad set of reforms will be needed to translate this opportunity into improved employment prospects and better living standards.
Book Synopsis World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2024 by : World Bank
Download or read book World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2024 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2024-04 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most economies in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) are growing faster than the rest of the world but slower than before the pandemic. Slowing global growth, still tight financial conditions, and an increase in trade protection and industrial support in large and rich countries are key aspects of the external environment shaping the region's economic performance. Amplified public and private debt, constrained macroeconomic policy, and increased policy uncertainty are the major domestic issues. EAP's current macroeconomic challenges risk obscuring the microeconomic foundations of longer-term growth. Over the last decade, EAP's growth has been driven by investment and capital deepening rather than by increased productivity of firms. Now private investment is weak and productivity declining†“further inhibiting the incentive to invest. Firms are the protagonists of productivity growth. Some of the weaker firms in EAP countries are beginning to catch up with stronger firms. But the stronger firms in the region are failing to take full advantage of new technologies: regional leaders risk becoming global laggards. Bold policy action to unleash competition, improve infrastructure and reform education with measured state support could revitalize the region's economy.
Book Synopsis Shock Waves by : Stephane Hallegatte
Download or read book Shock Waves written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-11-23 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
Book Synopsis China's Energy Revolution in the Context of the Global Energy Transition by : Shell International B.V.
Download or read book China's Energy Revolution in the Context of the Global Energy Transition written by Shell International B.V. and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 734 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book is an encyclopaedic analysis of the current and future energy system of the world’s most populous country and second biggest economy. What happens in China impacts the planet. In the past 40 years China has achieved one of the most remarkable economic growth rates in history. Its GDP has risen by a factor of 65, enabling 850,000 people to rise out of poverty. Growth on this scale comes with consequences. China is the world’s biggest consumer of primary energy and the world’s biggest emitter of CO2 emissions. Creating a prosperous and harmonious society that delivers economic growth and a high quality of life for all will require radical change in the energy sector, and a rewiring of the economy more widely. In China’s Energy Revolution in the Context of the Global Energy Transition, a team of researchers from the Development Research Center of the State Council of China and Shell International examine how China can revolutionise its supply and use of energy. They examine the entire energy system: coal, oil, gas, nuclear, renewables and new energies in production, conversion, distribution and consumption. They compare China with case studies and lessons learned in other countries. They ask which technology, policy and market mechanisms are required to support the change and they explore how international cooperation can smooth the way to an energy revolution in China and across the world. And, they create and compare scenarios on possible pathways to a future energy system that is low-carbon, affordable, secure and reliable.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498363288 Total Pages :135 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-11 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1589068068 Total Pages :252 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (89 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2009 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2009 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04-22 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.
Book Synopsis World Development Report 2019 by : World Bank
Download or read book World Development Report 2019 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2018-10-31 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Work is constantly reshaped by technological progress. New ways of production are adopted, markets expand, and societies evolve. But some changes provoke more attention than others, in part due to the vast uncertainty involved in making predictions about the future. The 2019 World Development Report will study how the nature of work is changing as a result of advances in technology today. Technological progress disrupts existing systems. A new social contract is needed to smooth the transition and guard against rising inequality. Significant investments in human capital throughout a person’s lifecycle are vital to this effort. If workers are to stay competitive against machines they need to train or retool existing skills. A social protection system that includes a minimum basic level of protection for workers and citizens can complement new forms of employment. Improved private sector policies to encourage startup activity and competition can help countries compete in the digital age. Governments also need to ensure that firms pay their fair share of taxes, in part to fund this new social contract. The 2019 World Development Report presents an analysis of these issues based upon the available evidence.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498344658 Total Pages :257 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-20 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Book Synopsis Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-23 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Download or read book World Development Report 1994 written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1994 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World Development Report 1994 examines the link between infrastructure and development and explores ways in which developing countries can improve both the provision and the quality of infrastructure services. In recent decades, developing countries have made substantial investments in infrastructure, achieving dramatic gains for households and producers by expanding their access to services such as safe water, sanitation, electric power, telecommunications, and transport. Even more infrastructure investment and expansion are needed in order to extend the reach of services - especially to people living in rural areas and to the poor. But as this report shows, the quantity of investment cannot be the exclusive focus of policy. Improving the quality of infrastructure service also is vital. Both quantity and quality improvements are essential to modernize and diversify production, help countries compete internationally, and accommodate rapid urbanization. The report identifies the basic cause of poor past performance as inadequate institutional incentives for improving the provision of infrastructure. To promote more efficient and responsive service delivery, incentives need to be changed through commercial management, competition, and user involvement. Several trends are helping to improve the performance of infrastructure. First, innovation in technology and in the regulatory management of markets makes more diversity possible in the supply of services. Second, an evaluation of the role of government is leading to a shift from direct government provision of services to increasing private sector provision and recent experience in many countries with public-private partnerships is highlighting new ways to increase efficiency and expand services. Third, increased concern about social and environmental sustainability has heightened public interest in infrastructure design and performance.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN 13 :9781616351199 Total Pages :0 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (511 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, September 2011 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, September 2011 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The September 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which is now in a dangerous new phase. Global activity has weakened and become more uneven, confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing. Against a backdrop of unresolved structural fragilities, a barrage of shocks hit the international economy this year, including the devastating Japanese earthquake and tsunami, unrest in some oil-producing countries, and the major financial turbulence in the euro area. Two of the forces now shaping the global economy are high and rising commodity prices and the need for many economies to address large budget deficits. Chapter 3 examines the inflationary effects of commodity price movements and the appropriate monetary policy response. Chapter 4 explores the implications of efforts by advanced economies to restore fiscal sustainability and by emerging and developing economies to tighten fiscal policy to rebuild fiscal policy room and in some cases to restrain overheating pressures.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498378005 Total Pages :884 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-14 with total page 884 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth remains moderate and uneven, and a number of complex forces are shaping the outlook. These include medium- and long-term trends, global shocks, and many country- or region-specific factors. The April 2015 WEO examines the causes and implications of recent trends, including lower oil prices, which are providing a boost to growth globally and in many oil-importing countries but are weighing on activity in oil-exporting countries, and substantial changes in exchange rates for major currencies, reflecting variations in country growth rates and in exchange rate policies and the lower price of oil. Additionally, analytical chapters explore the growth rate of potential output across advanced and emerging market economies, assessing its recent track and likely future course; and the performance of private fixed investment in advanced economies, which has featured prominently in the public policy debate in recent years, focusing on the role of overall economic weakness in accounting for this performance.
Book Synopsis World Development Report 2020 by : World Bank
Download or read book World Development Report 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-11-19 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
