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Nonstationary Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests And The Great Moderation
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Book Synopsis Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation by : Christoph Hanck
Download or read book Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation written by Christoph Hanck and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper argues that typical applications of panel unit root tests should take possible nonstationarity in the volatility process of the innovations of the panel time series into account. Nonstationarity volatility arises for instance when there are structural breaks in the innovation variances. A prominent example is the reduction in GDP growth variances enjoyed by many industrialized countries, known as the “Great Moderation”. It also proposes a new testing approach for panel unit roots that is, unlike many previously suggested tests, robust to such volatility processes. The panel test is based on Simes' (1986) classical multiple test, which combines evidence from time series unit root tests of the series in the panel. As time series unit root tests, we employ recently proposed tests of Cavaliere and Taylor (2008b). The panel test is robust to general patterns of cross-sectional dependence and yet is straightforward to implement, only requiring valid p-values of time series unit root tests, and no resampling. Monte Carlo experiments show that other panel unit root tests suff er from sometimes severe size distortions in the presence of nonstationary volatility, and that this defect can be remedied using the test proposed here. We use the methods developed here to test for unit roots in OECD panels of gross domestic products and inflation rates, yielding inference robust to the “Great Moderation”. We find little evidence of trend stationarity, and mixed evidence regarding inflation stationarity.
Book Synopsis Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change by : G. S. Maddala
Download or read book Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change written by G. S. Maddala and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive review of unit roots, cointegration and structural change from a best-selling author.
Book Synopsis Time Series, Unit Roots, and Cointegration by : Phoebus J. Dhrymes
Download or read book Time Series, Unit Roots, and Cointegration written by Phoebus J. Dhrymes and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 1998 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addresses the need for a high-level analysis of unit roots and cointegration. This work integrates the theory of stationary sequences and issues arising in the estimation of their parameters, distributed lags, spectral density function, and cointegration.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics by : John Geweke
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics written by John Geweke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-29 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as state space models and particle filtering. It also includes chapters on Bayesian principles and methodology.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data by : Peter Fuleky
Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data written by Peter Fuleky and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-28 with total page 716 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.
Book Synopsis The Economics and Econometrics of the Energy-Growth Nexus by : Angeliki Menegaki
Download or read book The Economics and Econometrics of the Energy-Growth Nexus written by Angeliki Menegaki and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2018-03-29 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economics and Econometrics of the Energy-Growth Nexus recognizes that research in the energy-growth nexus field is heterogeneous and controversial. To make studies in the field as comparable as possible, chapters cover aggregate energy and disaggregate energy consumption and single country and multiple country analysis. As a foundational resource that helps researchers answer fundamental questions about their energy-growth projects, it combines theory and practice to classify and summarize the literature and explain the econometrics of the energy-growth nexus. The book provides order and guidance, enabling researchers to feel confident that they are adhering to widely accepted assumptions and procedures. Provides guidance about selecting and implementing econometric tools and interpreting empirical findings Equips researchers to get clearer pictures of the most robust relationships between variables Covers up-to-date empirical and econometric methods Combines theory and practice to classify and summarize the literature and explain the econometrics of the energy-growth nexus
Book Synopsis Econometrics of Structural Change by : Walter Krämer
Download or read book Econometrics of Structural Change written by Walter Krämer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric models are made up of assumptions which never exactly match reality. Among the most contested ones is the requirement that the coefficients of an econometric model remain stable over time. Recent years have therefore seen numerous attempts to test for it or to model possible structural change when it can no longer be ignored. This collection of papers from Empirical Economics mirrors part of this development. The point of departure of most studies in this volume is the standard linear regression model Yt = x;fJt + U (t = I, ... , 1), t where notation is obvious and where the index t emphasises the fact that structural change is mostly discussed and encountered in a time series context. It is much less of a problem for cross section data, although many tests apply there as well. The null hypothesis of most tests for structural change is that fJt = fJo for all t, i.e. that the same regression applies to all time periods in the sample and that the disturbances u are well behaved. The well known Chow test for instance assumes t that there is a single structural shift at a known point in time, i.e. that fJt = fJo (t
Book Synopsis Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data by : Gilles Dufrénot
Download or read book Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data written by Gilles Dufrénot and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-21 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a comprehensive overview of the latest econometric methods for studying the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It examines alternative methodological approaches and concepts, including quantile spectra and co-spectra, and explores topics such as non-linear and non-stationary behavior, stochastic volatility models, and the econometrics of commodity markets and globalization. Furthermore, it demonstrates the application of recent techniques in various fields: in the frequency domain, in the analysis of persistent dynamics, in the estimation of state space models and new classes of volatility models. The book is divided into two parts: The first part applies econometrics to the field of macroeconomics, discussing trend/cycle decomposition, growth analysis, monetary policy and international trade. The second part applies econometrics to a wide range of topics in financial economics, including price dynamics in equity, commodity and foreign exchange markets and portfolio analysis. The book is essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners in government and financial institutions interested in applying recent econometric time series methods to financial and economic data.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) by : Burcu Özcan
Download or read book Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) written by Burcu Özcan and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-05-13 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC): A Manual provides a comprehensive summary of the EKC, summarizing work on this economic tool that can analyze environmental pollution problems. By enabling users to reconcile environmental and economic development policies, Environmental Kuznets Curve studies lend themselves to the investigation of the energy-growth and finance-energy nexus. The book obviates a dependence on outmoded tools, such as carrying capacity, externalities, ecosystem valuation and cost benefit analysis, while also encouraging flexible approaches to a variety of challenges. - Provides a comprehensive summary of EKC studies, including advances in econometrics, literature reviews and historical perspectives - Outlines solutions to common problems in applying EKC techniques by reviewing major case studies - Explores frequently-utilized proxies for environmental quality
Book Synopsis Emerging Markets and the Global Economy by : Mohammed El Hedi Arouri
Download or read book Emerging Markets and the Global Economy written by Mohammed El Hedi Arouri and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-12-26 with total page 927 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging Markets and the Global Economy investigates analytical techniques suited to emerging market economies, which are typically prone to policy shocks. Despite the large body of emerging market finance literature, their underlying dynamics and interactions with other economies remain challenging and mysterious because standard financial models measure them imprecisely. Describing the linkages between emerging and developed markets, this collection systematically explores several crucial issues in asset valuation and risk management. Contributors present new theoretical constructions and empirical methods for handling cross-country volatility and sudden regime shifts. Usually attractive for investors because of the superior growth they can deliver, emerging markets can have a low correlation with developed markets. This collection advances your knowledge about their inherent characteristics. Foreword by Ali M. Kutan - Concentrates on post-crisis roles of emerging markets in the global economy - Reports on key theoretical and technical developments in emerging financial markets - Forecasts future developments in linkages among developed and emerging economies
Book Synopsis Unit Roots and Structural Breaks by : Pierre Perron
Download or read book Unit Roots and Structural Breaks written by Pierre Perron and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unit Roots and Structural Breaks.
Book Synopsis Nonparametric Econometric Methods and Application by : Thanasis Stengos
Download or read book Nonparametric Econometric Methods and Application written by Thanasis Stengos and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-05-20 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present Special Issue collects a number of new contributions both at the theoretical level and in terms of applications in the areas of nonparametric and semiparametric econometric methods. In particular, this collection of papers that cover areas such as developments in local smoothing techniques, splines, series estimators, and wavelets will add to the existing rich literature on these subjects and enhance our ability to use data to test economic hypotheses in a variety of fields, such as financial economics, microeconomics, macroeconomics, labor economics, and economic growth, to name a few.
Download or read book Time Series Models written by D.R. Cox and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-26 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis prediction and interpolation of economic and other time series has a long history and many applications. Major new developments are taking place, driven partly by the need to analyze financial data. The five papers in this book describe those new developments from various viewpoints and are intended to be an introduction accessible to readers from a range of backgrounds. The book arises out of the second Seminaire European de Statistique (SEMSTAT) held in Oxford in December 1994. This brought together young statisticians from across Europe, and a series of introductory lectures were given on topics at the forefront of current research activity. The lectures form the basis for the five papers contained in the book. The papers by Shephard and Johansen deal respectively with time series models for volatility, i.e. variance heterogeneity, and with cointegration. Clements and Hendry analyze the nature of prediction errors. A complementary review paper by Laird gives a biometrical view of the analysis of short time series. Finally Astrup and Nielsen give a mathematical introduction to the study of option pricing. Whilst the book draws its primary motivation from financial series and from multivariate econometric modelling, the applications are potentially much broader.
Book Synopsis Climate Econometrics by : Jennifer L. Castle
Download or read book Climate Econometrics written by Jennifer L. Castle and published by Now Publishers. This book was released on 2020-08-18 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate Econometrics: An Overview provides a review of the research in this new and growing field. The structure of the monograph is as follows: First, section 2 describes econometric methods for empirical climate modeling that can account for wide-sense non-stationarity, namely both stochastic trends and location shifts, with possibly large outliers, as well as dynamics and non-linearities. Section 3 considers hazards confronting empirical modeling of nonstationary time-series data using an example where a counter-intuitive finding is hard to resolve. The framework has a clear subject-matter theory, so is not mere 'data mining', yet the empirical result flatly contradicts the well-based theory. Section 4 provides a brief excursion into climate science, mainly concerned with the composition of the Earth's atmosphere and the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas. Section 5 considers the consequences, both good and bad, of the Industrial Revolution raising living standards beyond the wildest dreams of those living in the 17th century, but leading to dangerous levels of CO2 emissions from using fossil fuels and consider applications of climate econometrics against that background. Section 6 illustrates the approach by modeling past climate variability over the Ice Ages. Section 7 models UK annual CO2 emissions over 1860-2017 to walk through the stages of modeling empirical time series that manifest all the problems of wide-sense non-stationarity. Section 8 concludes and summarizes a number of other empirical applications.
Book Synopsis Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations by : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Book Synopsis A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street by : Andrew W. Lo
Download or read book A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-11-14 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles, Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into the financial technologies of the future. The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.
