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News Driven Business Cycles Insights And Challenges
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Book Synopsis News Driven Business Cycles by : Paul Beaudry
Download or read book News Driven Business Cycles written by Paul Beaudry and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating its relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of its role in business cycles can be established.
Book Synopsis News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges by : Paul Beaudry
Download or read book News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges written by Paul Beaudry and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : James Arthur Estey
Download or read book Business Cycles written by James Arthur Estey and published by . This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 562 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Business Cycle - Simple Steps to Win, Insights and Opportunities for Maxing Out Success by : Gerard Blokdijk
Download or read book Business Cycle - Simple Steps to Win, Insights and Opportunities for Maxing Out Success written by Gerard Blokdijk and published by Complete Publishing. This book was released on 2015-07-21 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The one-stop-source powering Business Cycle success, jam-packed with ready to use insights for success, loaded with all the data you need to decide how to gain and move ahead. An one-of-a-kind book, based on extensive research, this reveals the best practices of the most successful Business Cycle knowledge mavens, those who are adept at continually innovating and seeing opportunity where others do not. This is the first place to go for Business Cycle innovation, in today's knowledge-driven business environment, professionals face particular challenges as their purpose is to discover or develop new concepts, products, or processes; the pressure to perform is intense. This title is the entryway to a single source for innovation. BONUS: Included with the book come numerous real-world Business Cycle blueprints, presentations and templates ready for you to download and use. This book addresses the crucial issue of Business Cycle adoption by presenting the facts to move beyond general observation. The model underpinning this book has been used as a predictive decision tool, tracking thousands of innovations for over more than a decade. And...this all-encompassing analysis focuses on key areas of future Business Cycle growth.
Book Synopsis Labor Markets and Business Cycles by : Robert Shimer
Download or read book Labor Markets and Business Cycles written by Robert Shimer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-12 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.
Book Synopsis New Evidence on News-Driven Business Cycles by : Thomas Haertel
Download or read book New Evidence on News-Driven Business Cycles written by Thomas Haertel and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis News Shocks in Open Economies by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Macroeconomics by : John B. Taylor
Download or read book Handbook of Macroeconomics written by John B. Taylor and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-11-12 with total page 2744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Macroeconomics Volumes 2A and 2B surveys major advances in macroeconomic scholarship since the publication of Volume 1 (1999), carefully distinguishing between empirical, theoretical, methodological, and policy issues, including fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies to deal with crises, unemployment, and economic growth. As this volume shows, macroeconomics has undergone a profound change since the publication of the last volume, due in no small part to the questions thrust into the spotlight by the worldwide financial crisis of 2008. With contributions from the world’s leading macroeconomists, its reevaluation of macroeconomic scholarship and assessment of its future constitute an investment worth making. Serves a double role as a textbook for macroeconomics courses and as a gateway for students to the latest research Acts as a one-of-a-kind resource as no major collections of macroeconomic essays have been published in the last decade Builds upon Volume 1 by using its section headings to illustrate just how far macroeconomic thought has evolved
Book Synopsis News Shocks in Open Economies by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013 by : Jonathan A. Parker
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013 written by Jonathan A. Parker and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2014-05-22 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The twenty-eighth edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual continues its tradition of featuring theoretical and empirical research on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. As in previous years, this volume not only addresses recent developments in macroeconomics, but also takes up important policy-relevant questions and opens new debates that will continue for years to come. The first two papers in this year’s issue tackle fiscal and monetary policy, asking how interest rates and inflation can remain low despite fiscal policy behavior that appears inconsistent with a monetary policy regime focused only on inflation and output and not on fiscal balances as recently observed in the U.S. The third examines the implications of reference-dependent preferences and moral hazard in employment fluctuations in the labor market. The fourth paper addresses money and inflation, analyzing the long run inflation rate, the coexistence of money with pledgeable and money-like assets, and why inflation did not increase in response to business-cycle fluctuations in productivity. And the fifth looks at the stock market and how it relates to the real economy. The final chapter discusses the large and public shift towards more expansionary monetary policy that has recently occurred in Japan.
Book Synopsis Essays in Business Cycles by : Ningru Zhao
Download or read book Essays in Business Cycles written by Ningru Zhao and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this dissertation is to explain several phenomena in business cycles. The first chapter serves to introduce the aims and methods of the subsequent chapters. Chapter 2 incorporates empirical methodology and a proposed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Epstein-Zin preferences and several real rigidities to investigate and explain the differing effects of surprise and anticipated government spending shocks. Chapter 3 studies the implication of asset pricing under news-driven business cycles. This chapter achieves a desirable equity premium and risk-free rate under news-driven business cycles with a lower relative risk aversion (RRA) and an intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) slightly larger than one. Chapter 4 addresses aggregate labor market fluctuations through a proposed family-labor-supply model with efficient leisure in the real business cycle (RBC) frame to capture the facts of aggregate labor market fluctuations.
Book Synopsis Growth and Business Cycles with Equilibrium Indeterminacy by : Kazuo Mino
Download or read book Growth and Business Cycles with Equilibrium Indeterminacy written by Kazuo Mino and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-07-11 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, the issue of equilibrium indeterminacy has been one of the major research concerns in macroeconomic dynamics. Growth and Business Cycles with Equilibrium Indeterminacy discusses the main topics in this literature. Based on comprehensive surveys and the author’s original research, this book explores sunspot-driven fluctuations in real business cycle models, multiple equilibria in endogenous growth models, and the stabilization effects of fiscal and monetary policy rules. The book also considers equilibrium indeterminacy in open economy models.
Book Synopsis The Long Shadow of Informality by : Franziska Ohnsorge
Download or read book The Long Shadow of Informality written by Franziska Ohnsorge and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2022-02-09 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.
Book Synopsis News-driven Business Cycles in SVARs by : Patrick Bunk
Download or read book News-driven Business Cycles in SVARs written by Patrick Bunk and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent studies proposed news about future technology growth as the main driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. The identification of these news through stock prices in SVARs has been criticized in the past. Therefore, I propose a series of experiments to test that hypothesis by examining its implications. If business cycles are mainly driven by news then these shocks should be captured by other time series as well. I find that news shocks identified through S & P 500 prices exhibit the same dynamics as news identified through a broader stock price index, patent applications, the relative price of investment or shocks to the real interest rate. The common theme among these identifications is a technological change in productivity that demands time to build, economic activity and natural resources to come into effect. -- Business Cycles ; News Shocks ; Technological Progress
Book Synopsis Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations by : Gabriel Di Bella
Download or read book Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations written by Gabriel Di Bella and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-05 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.
Book Synopsis Narrative Economics by : Robert J. Shiller
Download or read book Narrative Economics written by Robert J. Shiller and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-01 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From Nobel Prize–winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller, a groundbreaking account of how stories help drive economic events—and why financial panics can spread like epidemic viruses Stories people tell—about financial confidence or panic, housing booms, or Bitcoin—can go viral and powerfully affect economies, but such narratives have traditionally been ignored in economics and finance because they seem anecdotal and unscientific. In this groundbreaking book, Robert Shiller explains why we ignore these stories at our peril—and how we can begin to take them seriously. Using a rich array of examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that influence individual and collective economic behavior—what he calls "narrative economics"—may vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises and other major economic events. The result is nothing less than a new way to think about the economy, economic change, and economics. In a new preface, Shiller reflects on some of the challenges facing narrative economics, discusses the connection between disease epidemics and economic epidemics, and suggests why epidemiology may hold lessons for fighting economic contagions.
