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Network Effects Of International Shocks And Spillovers
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Book Synopsis Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers by : Mr.Alexei Kireyev
Download or read book Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers written by Mr.Alexei Kireyev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-07 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effects in shock spillovers can be substantial, comparable, and often exceed the initial shock. Individual countries may amplify, absorb, or block spillovers. Most developed countries pass-through shocks, whereas low-income countries and oil exporters tend to block shock spillovers. The method is used to study demand shocks originating from a large and medium country, China and Ukraine respectively.
Book Synopsis Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers by : Alexei Kireyev
Download or read book Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers written by Alexei Kireyev and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effects in shock spillovers can be substantial, comparable, and often exceed the initial shock. Individual countries may amplify, absorb, or block spillovers. Most developed countries pass-through shocks, whereas low-income countries and oil exporters tend to block shock spillovers. The method is used to study demand shocks originating from a large and medium country, China and Ukraine res
Book Synopsis Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19 by : Mr. Sonali Das
Download or read book Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19 written by Mr. Sonali Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-30 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.
Book Synopsis Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade by : Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko
Download or read book Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade written by Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-13 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.
Book Synopsis Stock Market Spillovers Via the Global Production Network by : Julian Di Giovanni
Download or read book Stock Market Spillovers Via the Global Production Network written by Julian Di Giovanni and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We quantify the role of global production linkages in explaining spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks to stock returns across countries and sectors using a newly constructed dataset. Our estimation strategy is based on a standard open-economy production network model that delivers a spillover pattern consistent with a spatial autoregression (SAR) process. We use the SAR model to decompose the overall impact of U.S. monetary policy on global stock returns into a direct and a network effect. We find that nearly 70% of the total impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on country-sector stock returns are due to the network effect of global production linkages. Our results are robust to changes in the definitions of stock returns and monetary policy shocks, to controlling for correlates of the global financial cycle, foreign monetary policy shocks, and to alternative empirical specifications.
Book Synopsis China’s Imports Slowdown by : Mr.Alexei Kireyev
Download or read book China’s Imports Slowdown written by Mr.Alexei Kireyev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-07 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify initial shock, and change the direction of its propagation. The impact on Asia and Pacific will be the strongest followed by the Middle East and Central Asia. The impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be noticeable only for some countries. Spillovers on Europe, including the Euro area, will be moderate, and spillovers on the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, would be very marginal. Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact.
Book Synopsis A Network Model of Multilaterally Equilibrium Exchange Rates by : Mr.Alexei P Kireyev
Download or read book A Network Model of Multilaterally Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Mr.Alexei P Kireyev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-06 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a network model of multilaterally equilibrium exchange rates. The model introduces a topological component into the exchange rate analysis, consistently taking into account simultaneous higher-order interactions among all currencies. The paper defines the currency demand indicator. On its base, it derives a multilateral exchange rate network, finds its dynamically stationary position, and identifies the multilaterally equilibrium levels of bilateral exchanges rates. Potentially, the model can be developed further to calculate the deviations of the observed bilateral exchange rates from their multilaterally equilibrium levels, which can be interpreted as their over- or undervaluation. For illustration, the model is applied to daily 1995-2016 exchange rates among 130 currencies sourced from the Thomson Reuters Datastream.
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-03 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years, though with large variation among countries in the region. The sharp decline in commodity prices has severely strained many of the largest economies, including oil exporters Angola and Nigeria, and other commodity exporters, such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia. At the same time, the decline in oil prices has helped other countries continue to show robust growth, including Kenya and Senegal. A strong policy response to the terms-of-trade shocks is critical and urgent in many countries. This report also examines sub-Saharan Africa’s vulnerability to commodity price shocks, and documents the substantial progress made in financial develop, especially financial services based on mobile technologies.
Book Synopsis Output Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy by : Falk Bräuning
Download or read book Output Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy written by Falk Bräuning and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate that U.S. monetary policy has sizable spillover effects on global economic activity. In response to a surprise increase in the federal funds rate of 25 basis points, real output in our sample of 44 countries declines on average by 0.9% after three years. We find that international trade is a more important factor than international finance in explaining these spillovers. In particular, countries with a high share of exports and imports in output have 79% larger responses than countries with a low share, whereas we do not find significant heterogeneity depending on a country's financial openness. Bilateral trade linkages appear to be quantitatively important, as the network amplification effect accounts for 45% of the total spillover effect at the peak horizon. We conclude that trade networks could be an important ingredient of theoretical models focusing on the international effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks.
Book Synopsis Regionalism, Development and the Post-Commodities Boom in South America by : Ernesto Vivares
Download or read book Regionalism, Development and the Post-Commodities Boom in South America written by Ernesto Vivares and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-15 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a critical and multidisciplinary IPE of the unequal structures of South American development and uneven insertions in the global order following the decline of the commodities boom. The work explores the extent to which regional development issues are related to merely a decline of commodities ́ prices and/or to the resilience of the historical structures within an unequal world order. Thus, the authors seek first to analytically explore the regional issues beyond the formal limitations of North American and Eurocentric approaches. Secondly, they empirically scrutinize the complex dimensions of regional inequality and global insertions. Aspects analysed include economic reprimarization, the impact of China, development finance, trade and regional value chains, knowledge and technology, regional and transnational organised crime, cities, economic integration and the Global South.
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-27 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recovered relative to 2016, but the momentum is weak and per capita incomes are expected to barely increase. Further, vulnerabilities have risen in many countries, adding to the urgency of implementing the fiscal consolidations planned in most countries and with stepped up efforts to strengthen growth.
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-25 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa this year is set to drop to its lowest level in more than 20 years, reflecting the adverse external environment, and a lackluster policy response in many countries. However, the aggregate picture is one of multispeed growth: while most of non-resource-intensive countries—half of the countries in the region—continue to perform well, as they benefit from lower oil prices, an improved business environment, and continued strong infrastructure investment, most commodity exporters are under severe economic strains. This is particularly the case for oil exporters whose near-term prospects have worsened significantly in recent months. Sub-Saharan Africa remains a region of immense economic potential, but policy adjustment in the hardest-hit countries needs to be enacted promptly to allow for a growth rebound.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513592424 Total Pages :18 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, September 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, September 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-25 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics. The Research Summaries featured in this issue are “Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States” (Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen) and “Economic Principles for Resource Revenue Management” (Anthony J. Venables and Samuel Wills). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financing for Development” (Amadou Sy) and the global development agenda. The issue also includes special announcements on the 2015 Annual Research Conference and the 2015 IMF Annual Report, as well as new IMF publications. Readers will also find a link to a top-viewed article from the “IMF Economic Review”—the IMF’s official research journal.
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Sub-Saharan Africa by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Sub-Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The region is seeing a modest growth uptick, but this is not uniform and the medium-term outlook remains subdued. Growth is projected to rise to 3.4 percent in 2018, from 2.8 percent in 2017, on the back of improved global growth, higher commodity prices, and continued strong public spending. About 3⁄4 of the countries in the region are predicted to experience faster growth. Beyond 2018, growth is expected to plateau below 4 percent, modestly above population growth, reflecting continued sluggishness in the oil-exporting countries and sustained growth in non-resource-intensive countries. A number of countries (Burundi, DRC, South Sudan, and parts of the Sahel) remain locked in internal conflict resulting in record levels of refugees and Internally Displaced Persons, with adverse spillovers to neighboring countries.
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa by : Céline Allard
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa written by Céline Allard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-09 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth momentum in sub-Saharan Africa remains fragile, marking a break from the rapid expansion witnessed since the turn of the millennium. 2016 was a difficult year for many countries, with regional growth dipping to 1.4 percent—the lowest level of growth in more than two decades. Most oil exporters were in recession, and conditions in other resource-intensive countries remained difficult. Other nonresource-intensive countries however, continued to grow robustly. A modest recovery in growth of about 2.6 percent is expected in 2017, but this falls short of past trends and is too low to put sub-Saharan Africa back on a path of rising living standards. While sub-Saharan Africa remains a region with tremendous growth potential, the deterioration in the overall outlook partly reflects insufficient policy adjustment. In that context, and to reap this potential, strong and sound domestic policy measures are needed to restart the growth engine.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513598406 Total Pages :134 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015 by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-27 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has weakened after more than a decade of solid growth, although this overall outlook masks considerable variation across the region. Some countries have been negatively affected by falling prices of their main commodity exports. Oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria and Angola, have been hit hard by falling revenues and the resulting fiscal adjustments, while middle-income countries such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia are also facing unfavorable conditions. This October 2015 report discusses the fiscal and monetary policy adjustments necessary for these countries to adapt to the new environment. Chapter 2 looks at competitiveness in the region, analyzing the substantial trade integration that accompanied the recent period of high growth, and policy actions to nurture new sources of growth. Chapter 3 looks at the implications for the region of persistently high income and gender inequality and ways to reduce them.
Book Synopsis International Spillovers of Macroeconomic Shocks A Quantitative Exploration by : Douglas Laxton
Download or read book International Spillovers of Macroeconomic Shocks A Quantitative Exploration written by Douglas Laxton and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a quantitative exploration of international spillovers of macroeconomic shocks among the major industrial economies. The particular topical example analyzed here concerns the possible effects on the industrial economies of adverse shocks to the current U.S. economic expansion. The potential spillover effects of U.S. shocks to other industrial economies are found to be quite large. Extant economic conditions, particularly the low levels of nominal interest rates and the consequent possibility of liquidity traps in countries such as Japan, could significantly magnify these spillover effects.
