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Mortality Assumptions And Longevity Risk
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Book Synopsis Mortality Assumptions and Longevity Risk Implications for pension funds and annuity providers by : OECD
Download or read book Mortality Assumptions and Longevity Risk Implications for pension funds and annuity providers written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2014-12-08 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The publication assess how pension funds, annuity providers such as life insurance companies, and the regulatory framework incorporate future improvements in mortality and life expectancy.
Book Synopsis Mortality Assumptions and Longevity Risk by : OECD. OCDE
Download or read book Mortality Assumptions and Longevity Risk written by OECD. OCDE and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Modelling Longevity Dynamics for Pensions and Annuity Business by : Ermanno Pitacco
Download or read book Modelling Longevity Dynamics for Pensions and Annuity Business written by Ermanno Pitacco and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2009-01-29 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mortality improvements, uncertainty in future mortality trends and the relevant impact on life annuities and pension plans constitute important topics in the field of actuarial mathematics and life insurance techniques. In particular, actuarial calculations concerning pensions, life annuities and other living benefits (provided, for example, by long-term care insurance products and whole life sickness covers) are based on survival probabilities which necessarily extend over a long time horizon. In order to avoid underestimation of the related liabilities, the insurance company (or the pension plan) must adopt an appropriate forecast of future mortality. Great attention is currently being devoted to the management of life annuity portfolios, both from a theoretical and a practical point of view, because of the growing importance of annuity benefits paid by private pension schemes. In particular, the progressive shift from defined benefit to defined contribution pension schemes has increased the interest in life annuities with a guaranteed annual amount. This book provides a comprehensive and detailed description of methods for projecting mortality, and an extensive introduction to some important issues concerning longevity risk in the area of life annuities and pension benefits. It relies on research work carried out by the authors, as well as on a wide teaching experience and in CPD (Continuing Professional Development) initiatives. The following topics are dealt with: life annuities in the framework of post-retirement income strategies; the basic mortality model; recent mortality trends that have been experienced; general features of projection models; discussion of stochastic projection models, with numerical illustrations; measuring and managing longevity risk.
Book Synopsis Mortality Assumptions and Longevity Risk - Implications for Pension Funds and Annuity Providers by : OECD. Publishing
Download or read book Mortality Assumptions and Longevity Risk - Implications for Pension Funds and Annuity Providers written by OECD. Publishing and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Mortality assumptions and longevity risk : implications for pension funds and annuity providers by :
Download or read book Mortality assumptions and longevity risk : implications for pension funds and annuity providers written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Impact of Longevity Improvements on U.S. Corporate Defined Benefit Pension Plans by : Mr.John Kiff
Download or read book The Impact of Longevity Improvements on U.S. Corporate Defined Benefit Pension Plans written by Mr.John Kiff and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides the first empirical assessment of the impact of life expectancy assumptions on the liabilities of private U.S. defined benefit (DB) pension plans. Using detailed actuarial and financial information provided by the U.S. Department of Labor, we construct a longevity variable for each pension plan and then measure the impact of varying life expectancy assumptions across plans and over time on pension plan liabilities. The results indicate that each additional year of life expectancy increases pension liabilities by about 3 to 4 percent. This effect is not only statistically highly significant but also economically: each year of additional life expectancy would increase private U.S. DB pension plan liabilities by as much as $84 billion.
Book Synopsis Longevity Risk and Retirement Income Planning by : Patrick J. Collins
Download or read book Longevity Risk and Retirement Income Planning written by Patrick J. Collins and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2015-12-28 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past 50 years have seen an abundance of research on retirement planning and longevity risk. Reviewed here is the academic side of the research and its varied viewpoints and nuances. The evolution of retirement risk models, retirement portfolio problems and solutions, and annuities are some of the many topics covered.
Book Synopsis Life Settlements and Longevity Structures by : Geoff Chaplin
Download or read book Life Settlements and Longevity Structures written by Geoff Chaplin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-08-06 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent turbulence in the financial markets has highlighted the need for diversified portfolios with lower correlations between the different investments. Life settlements meet this need, offering investors the prospect of high, stable returns, uncorrelated with the broader financial markets. This book provides readers of all levels of experience with essential information on the process surrounding the acquisition and management of a portfolio of life settlements; the assessment, modelling and mitigation of the associated longevity, interest rate and credit risks; and practical approaches to financing and risk management structures. It begins with the history of life insurance and looks at how the need for new financing sources has led to the growth of the life settlements market in the United States. The authors provide a detailed exploration of the mathematical formulae surrounding the generation of mortality curves, drawing a parallel between the tools deployed in the credit derivatives market and those available to model longevity risk. Structured products and securitisation techniques are introduced and explained, starting with simple vanilla products and models before illustrating some of the investment structures associated with life settlements. Capital market mechanisms available to assist the investor in limiting the risks associated with life settlement portfolios are outlined, as are opportunities to use life settlement portfolios to mitigate the risks of traditional capital markets. The last section of the book covers derivative products, either available now or under consideration, that will reduce or potentially eliminate longevity risks within life settlement portfolios. It then reviews hedging and risk management strategies and considers how to measure the effectiveness of risk mitigation.
Book Synopsis New Models for Managing Longevity Risk by : Olivia S. Mitchell
Download or read book New Models for Managing Longevity Risk written by Olivia S. Mitchell and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2022 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. Notwithstanding the terrible price the world has paid in the coronavirus pandemic, the fact remains that longevity at older ages is likely to continue to rise in the medium and longer term. This volume explores how the private and public sectors can collaborate via public-private partnerships (PPPs) to develop new mechanisms to reduce older people's risk of outliving their assets in later life. As this volume shows, PPPs typically involve shared government financing alongside private sector partner expertise, management responsibility, and accountability. In addition to offering empirical evidence on examples where this is working well, contributors provide case studies, discuss survey results, and examine a variety of different financial and insurance products to better meet the needs of the aging population. This volume will be informative to researchers, plan sponsors, students, and policymakers seeking to enhance retirement plan offerings.
Book Synopsis Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries by : National Research Council
Download or read book Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-06-27 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last 25 years, life expectancy at age 50 in the United States has been rising, but at a slower pace than in many other high-income countries, such as Japan and Australia. This difference is particularly notable given that the United States spends more on health care than any other nation. Concerned about this divergence, the National Institute on Aging asked the National Research Council to examine evidence on its possible causes. According to Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries, the nation's history of heavy smoking is a major reason why lifespans in the United States fall short of those in many other high-income nations. Evidence suggests that current obesity levels play a substantial part as well. The book reports that lack of universal access to health care in the U.S. also has increased mortality and reduced life expectancy, though this is a less significant factor for those over age 65 because of Medicare access. For the main causes of death at older ages-cancer and cardiovascular disease-available indicators do not suggest that the U.S. health care system is failing to prevent deaths that would be averted elsewhere. In fact, cancer detection and survival appear to be better in the U.S. than in most other high-income nations, and survival rates following a heart attack also are favorable. Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries identifies many gaps in research. For instance, while lung cancer deaths are a reliable marker of the damage from smoking, no clear-cut marker exists for obesity, physical inactivity, social integration, or other risks considered in this book. Moreover, evaluation of these risk factors is based on observational studies, which-unlike randomized controlled trials-are subject to many biases.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Mortality Trends Allowing for Cause-of-Death Mortality Dependence by : Severine Arnold (-Gaille)
Download or read book Forecasting Mortality Trends Allowing for Cause-of-Death Mortality Dependence written by Severine Arnold (-Gaille) and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Longevity risk is amongst the most important factors to consider for pricing and risk management of longevity products. Past improvements in mortality over many years, and the uncertainty of these improvements, have attracted the attention of experts, both practitioners and academics. Since aggregate mortality rates reflect underlying trends in causes of death, insurers and demographers are increasingly considering cause-of-death data to better understand risks in their mortality assumptions. The relative importance of causes of death has changed over many years. As one cause reduces, others increase or decrease. The dependence between mortality for different causes of death is important when projecting future mortality. However, for scenario analysis based on causes of death, the assumption usually made is that causes of death are independent. Recent models, in the form of Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), have been developed for multivariate dynamic systems and capture time dependency with common stochastic trends. These models include long-run stationary relations between the variables, and thus allow a better understanding of the nature of this dependence. This paper applies VECM to cause-of-death mortality rates in order to assess the dependence between these competing risks. We analyze the five main causes of death in Switzerland. Our analysis confirms the existence of a long-run stationary relationship between these five causes. This estimated relationship is then used to forecast mortality rates, which are shown to be an improvement over forecasts from more traditional ARIMA processes, that do not allow for cause-of-death dependencies.
Book Synopsis Apocalyptic Demography? Putting Longevity Risk in Perspective by : David P. Blake
Download or read book Apocalyptic Demography? Putting Longevity Risk in Perspective written by David P. Blake and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Apocalyptic demography? Putting longevity risk in perspective' which was published on 29 April 2008 has been funded by, and produced in association with, the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA), the only international accountancy body with a sole focus on business. This report and checklist allows finance directors to put longevity risk in perspective by focusing on issues such as current life expectancy, projected life expectancy and the types of longevity risk to which their organisation may be susceptible. It will also help them when discussing, with their actuary, the basis of mortality assumptions used in estimating their scheme liabilities.
Download or read book Longevity Risk written by Emma McWilliam and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Mortality Risk, Insurance, and the Value of Life by : Daniel Bauer (Professor of risk and insurance)
Download or read book Mortality Risk, Insurance, and the Value of Life written by Daniel Bauer (Professor of risk and insurance) and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop and apply a generalized framework for valuing health and longevity improvements that departs from conventional assumptions of full annuitization and deterministic mortality. In contrast to conventional theory, we find a given mortality improvement may be worth more, not less, to patients facing shorter lives. Using real-world data, we calculate that severe illness can increase the value of statistical life by over $1 million. This result reconciles an anomaly in the research on preferences for life-extension. Moreover, our framework can value the prevention of mortality and of illness. We calculate that treating illness is up to an order of magnitude more valuable to consumers than prevention, even when both extend life equally. This asymmetry helps explain low observed investment in preventive care. Finally, we show that retirement annuities boost aggregate demand for life-extension. For instance, Social Security adds $11.5 trillion (10.5 percent) to the value of post-1940 longevity gains.
Download or read book Life is Cheap written by Leora Friedberg and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using the widely-cited Lee-Carter mortality model, we quantify aggregate mortality risk as the risk that the average annuitant lives longer than is predicted by the model, and we conclude that annuity business exposes insurance companies to substantial mortality risk. We calculate that a markup of 3.7% on an annuity premium (or else shareholders' capital equal to 3.7% of the expected present value of annuity payments) would reduce the probability of insolvency resulting from uncertain aggregate mortality trends to 5% and a markup of 5.4% would reduce the probability of insolvency to 1%. Using the same model, we find that a projection scale commonly referred to by the insurance industry underestimates aggregate mortality improvements. Annuities that are priced on that projection scale without any conservative margin appear to be substantially underpriced. Insurance companies could deal with aggregate mortality risk by transferring it to financial markets through mortality-contingent bonds, one of which has recently been offered. We calculate the returns that investors would have obtained on such bonds had they been available over a long period. Using both the Capital and the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Models, we determine the risk premium that investors would have required on such bonds. At plausible coefficients of risk aversion, annuity providers should be able to hedge aggregate mortality risk via such bonds at a very low cost.
Book Synopsis The Quest for Immortality: Science at the Frontiers of Aging by : Bruce A. Carnes
Download or read book The Quest for Immortality: Science at the Frontiers of Aging written by Bruce A. Carnes and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2002-07-17 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This is by far the best book I've read on the science of aging."—Andrew Weil, M.D. "Life-span Truth Will Set You Free from Age-old Worries," announced the Chicago Tribune upon the first publication of this book. The New England Journal of Medicine confirmed, "For readers interested in aging and longevity, this small book clearly explains the major concepts...extremely enjoyable to read." From NBC Nightly News with Tom Brokaw to Scientific American to the New York Times, S. Jay Olshansky and Bruce A. Carnes have stirred up controversy and brought clarity to an issue often muddled by exaggeration and pseudoscience. Medical science has uncovered a host of answers to the problems of aging, but many of the most exciting discoveries are buried in scientific journals or overshadowed by popular quick-fix treatments. The Quest for Immortality explains the real science of aging and shows which treatments offered by today's multi-billion-dollar anti-aging industries offer real hope, and which are a waste of money and time.
Book Synopsis Longevity Risk and the Econometric Analysis of Mortality Trends and Volatility by : Michael Sherris
Download or read book Longevity Risk and the Econometric Analysis of Mortality Trends and Volatility written by Michael Sherris and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Longevity risk and the modeling of trends and volatility for mortality improvement has attracted increased attention driven by ageing populations around the world and the expected financial implications. The original Lee-Carter model that was used for longevity risk assessment included a single improvement factor with differential impacts by age. Financial models that allow for risk pricing and risk management have attracted increasing attention along with multiple factor models. This paper investigates trends, including common trends through co-integration, and the factors driving the volatility of mortality using principal components analysis for a number of developed countries including Australia, England, Japan, Norway and USA. The results demonstrate the need for multiple factors for modeling mortality rates across all these countries. The basic structure of the Lee-Carter model can not adequately model the random variation and the full risk structure of mortality changes. Trends by country are found to be stochastic. Common trends and co-integrating relationships are found across ages highlighting the benefits from modeling mortality rates as a system in a Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model and capturing long run equilibrium relationships in a Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM) framework.
