Models For Sp 500 Dynamics

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Models for S&P 500 Dynamics

Author : Peter Christoffersen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Models for S&P 500 Dynamics by : Peter Christoffersen

Download or read book Models for S&P 500 Dynamics written by Peter Christoffersen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most recent empirical option valuation studies build on the affine square root (SQR) stochastic volatility model. The SQR model is a convenient choice, because it yields closed-form solutions for option prices. However, relatively little is known about the resulting biases. We investigate alternatives to the SQR model, by comparing its empirical performance with that of five different but equally parsimonious stochastic volatility models. We provide empirical evidence from three different sources. We first use realized volatilities to assess the properties of the SQR model and to guide us in the search for alternative specifications. We then estimate the models using maximum likelihood on Samp;P 500 returns. Finally, we employ nonlinear least squares on a panel of option data. In comparison with earlier studies that explicitly solve the filtering problem, we analyze a more comprehensive option data set. The scope of our analysis is feasible because of our use of the particle filter. The three sources of data we employ all point to the same conclusion: the SQR model is misspecified. Overall, the best of the alternative volatility specifications is a model with linear rather than square root diffusion for variance which we refer to as the VAR model. This model captures the stylized facts in realized volatilities, it performs well in fitting various samples of index returns, and it has the lowest option implied volatility mean squared errors in- and out-of-sample.

Sv Mixture Models with Application to S&P 500 Index Returns

Author : Garland Durham
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Sv Mixture Models with Application to S&P 500 Index Returns by : Garland Durham

Download or read book Sv Mixture Models with Application to S&P 500 Index Returns written by Garland Durham and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding both the dynamics of volatility as well as the shape of the distribution of returns conditional on the volatility state are important for many financial applications. A simple single-factor SV model appears to be sufficient to capture most of the dynamics; it is the shape of the conditional distribution that is the problem. This paper examines the idea of modeling this distribution as a discrete mixture of normals. The flexibility of this class of distributions provides a transparent look into the tails of the returns distribution. Model diagnostics suggest that the model, SV-mix, does a good job of capturing the salient features of the data. In a direct comparison against several affine-jump models, SV-mix is strongly preferred by Akaike and Schwarz information criteria.

Modelling the Value of the S&P 500 - a System Dynamics Perspective

Author : Carl Chiarella
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling the Value of the S&P 500 - a System Dynamics Perspective by : Carl Chiarella

Download or read book Modelling the Value of the S&P 500 - a System Dynamics Perspective written by Carl Chiarella and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper seeks to model the adjustment process in the stock market by a continuous time state space model focusing on input-out relations. The value of the Samp;P 500 is generated as the output of the model with earnings and the interest rate as input. The model is found to fit the data well, and indicates that the stock price dynamics can be considered as a price-following-value process. The value determines the time varying trend of price, and random buy-sell pressure drives price fluctuations about value. The 1987 stock price bubble shows up clearly as a gap between price and value.

Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails

Author : Andrew C. Harvey
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107034728
Total Pages : 281 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails by : Andrew C. Harvey

Download or read book Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails written by Andrew C. Harvey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of financial returns changes over time and, for the last thirty years, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have provided the principal means of analyzing, modeling and monitoring such changes. Taking into account that financial returns typically exhibit heavy tails - that is, extreme values can occur from time to time - Andrew Harvey's new book shows how a small but radical change in the way GARCH models are formulated leads to a resolution of many of the theoretical problems inherent in the statistical theory. The approach can also be applied to other aspects of volatility. The more general class of Dynamic Conditional Score models extends to robust modeling of outliers in the levels of time series and to the treatment of time-varying relationships. The statistical theory draws on basic principles of maximum likelihood estimation and, by doing so, leads to an elegant and unified treatment of nonlinear time-series modeling.

Modeling Financial Time Series with S-PLUS

Author : Eric Zivot
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780387955490
Total Pages : 648 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (554 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling Financial Time Series with S-PLUS by : Eric Zivot

Download or read book Modeling Financial Time Series with S-PLUS written by Eric Zivot and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2003-09-12 with total page 648 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of financial econometrics has exploded since the early 1990s. This book represents an integration of theory, methods and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics. It shows the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data. It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance. Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts.

Jump and Volatility Dynamics for the S&P 500

Author : Hanxue Yang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Jump and Volatility Dynamics for the S&P 500 by : Hanxue Yang

Download or read book Jump and Volatility Dynamics for the S&P 500 written by Hanxue Yang and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Relatively little is known about the empirical performance of infinite-activity Levy jump models, especially with non-affine volatility dynamics. We use extensive empirical data sets to study how infinite-activity Variance Gamma and Normal Inverse Gaussian jumps with affine and non-affine volatility dynamics improve goodness of fit and option pricing performance. With Markov Chain Monte Carlo, different model specifications are estimated using the joint information of the S&P 500 index and the VIX. Our paper provides clear evidence that a parsimonious non-affine model with Normal Inverse Gaussian return jumps and a linear variance specification is particularly competitive, even during the recent crisis.

NBS Special Publication

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 452 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis NBS Special Publication by :

Download or read book NBS Special Publication written by and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Predictable Dynamics in the S&P 500 Index Options Implied Volatility Surface

Author : Sílvia Gonçalves
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictable Dynamics in the S&P 500 Index Options Implied Volatility Surface by : Sílvia Gonçalves

Download or read book Predictable Dynamics in the S&P 500 Index Options Implied Volatility Surface written by Sílvia Gonçalves and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One key stylized fact in the empirical option pricing literature is the existence of an implied volatility surface (IVS). The usual approach consists of fitting a linear model linking the implied volatility to the time to maturity and the moneyness, for each cross section of options data. However, recent empirical evidence suggests that the parameters characterizing the IVS change over time. In this paper, we study whether the resulting predictability patterns in the IVS coefficients may be exploited in practice. We propose a two-stage approach to modeling and forecasting the Samp;P 500 index options IVS. In the first stage, we model the surface along the cross-sectional moneyness and time-to-maturity dimensions, similarly to Dumas, et. al., (1998). In the second-stage, we model the dynamics of the cross-sectional first-stage implied volatility surface coefficients by means of vector autoregression models. We find that not only the Samp;P 500 implied volatility surface can be successfully modeled, but also that its movements over time are highly predictable in a statistical sense. We then examine the economic significance of this statistical predictability with mixed findings. Whereas profitable delta-hedged positions can be set up that exploit the dynamics captured by the model under moderate transaction costs and when trading rules are selective in terms of expected gains from the trades, most of this profitability disappears when we increase the level of transaction costs and trade multiple contracts off wide segments of the IVS. This suggests that predictability of the time-varying Samp;P 500 implied volatility surface may be not inconsistent with market efficiency.

A New Approach to Modeling the Dynamics of Implied Distributions

Author : Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis A New Approach to Modeling the Dynamics of Implied Distributions by : Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou

Download or read book A New Approach to Modeling the Dynamics of Implied Distributions written by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a new approach to modeling the dynamics of implied distributions. First, we obtain a parsimonious description of the dynamics of the Samp;P 500 implied cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) by applying Principal Components Analysis. Subsequently, we develop new arbitrage-free Monte-Carlo simulation methods that model the evolution of the whole distribution through time as a diffusion process. Our approach generalizes the conventional approaches of modeling only the first two moments as diffusion processes, and it has important implications for smile-consistent option pricing and for risk management. The out-of-sample performance within a Value-at-Risk framework is examined.

Pricing Models of Volatility Products and Exotic Variance Derivatives

Author : Yue Kuen Kwok
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000584259
Total Pages : 283 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Pricing Models of Volatility Products and Exotic Variance Derivatives by : Yue Kuen Kwok

Download or read book Pricing Models of Volatility Products and Exotic Variance Derivatives written by Yue Kuen Kwok and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-05-08 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pricing Models of Volatility Products and Exotic Variance Derivatives summarizes most of the recent research results in pricing models of derivatives on discrete realized variance and VIX. The book begins with the presentation of volatility trading and uses of variance derivatives. It then moves on to discuss the robust replication strategy of variance swaps using portfolio of options, which is one of the major milestones in pricing theory of variance derivatives. The replication procedure provides the theoretical foundation of the construction of VIX. This book provides sound arguments for formulating the pricing models of variance derivatives and establishes formal proofs of various technical results. Illustrative numerical examples are included to show accuracy and effectiveness of analytic and approximation methods. Features Useful for practitioners and quants in the financial industry who need to make choices between various pricing models of variance derivatives Fabulous resource for researchers interested in pricing and hedging issues of variance derivatives and VIX products Can be used as a university textbook in a topic course on pricing variance derivatives

Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications

Author : Luc Bauwens
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470872519
Total Pages : 566 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (78 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications by : Luc Bauwens

Download or read book Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications written by Luc Bauwens and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-04-17 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Publications

Author : United States. National Bureau of Standards
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 620 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Publications by : United States. National Bureau of Standards

Download or read book Publications written by United States. National Bureau of Standards and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Financial Econometrics Modeling: Market Microstructure, Factor Models and Financial Risk Measures

Author : G. Gregoriou
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230298109
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (32 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Econometrics Modeling: Market Microstructure, Factor Models and Financial Risk Measures by : G. Gregoriou

Download or read book Financial Econometrics Modeling: Market Microstructure, Factor Models and Financial Risk Measures written by G. Gregoriou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-12-13 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book proposes new methods to build optimal portfolios and to analyze market liquidity and volatility under market microstructure effects, as well as new financial risk measures using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular, it investigates the market microstructure of foreign exchange and futures markets.

Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics IV

Author : Alberto Pinto
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030781631
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (37 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics IV by : Alberto Pinto

Download or read book Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics IV written by Alberto Pinto and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-09-29 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, following the three published volumes of the book, provides the main purpose to collect research papers and review papers to provide an overview of the main issues, results, and open questions in the cutting-edge research on the fields of modeling, optimization, and dynamics and their applications to biology, economy, energy, industry, physics, psychology and finance. Assuming the scientific relevance of the presenting innovative applications as well as merging issues in these areas, the purpose of this book is to collect papers of the world experts in mathematics, economics, and other applied sciences that is seminal to the future research developments. The majority of the papers presented in this book is authored by the participants in The Joint Meeting 6th International Conference on Dynamics, Games, and Science – DGSVI – JOLATE and in the 21st ICABR Conference. The scientific scope of the conferences is focused on the fields of modeling, optimization, and dynamics and their applications to biology, economy, energy, industry, physics, psychology, and finance. Assuming the scientific relevance of the presenting innovative applications as well as merging issues in these areas, the purpose of the conference is to bring together some of the world experts in mathematics, economics, and other applied sciences that reinforce ongoing projects and establish future works and collaborations.

Publications of the National Institute of Standards and Technology ... Catalog

Author : National Institute of Standards and Technology (U.S.)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 680 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Publications of the National Institute of Standards and Technology ... Catalog by : National Institute of Standards and Technology (U.S.)

Download or read book Publications of the National Institute of Standards and Technology ... Catalog written by National Institute of Standards and Technology (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Options - 45 Years Since The Publication Of The Black-scholes-merton Model: The Gershon Fintech Center Conference

Author : David Gershon
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811259151
Total Pages : 554 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Options - 45 Years Since The Publication Of The Black-scholes-merton Model: The Gershon Fintech Center Conference by : David Gershon

Download or read book Options - 45 Years Since The Publication Of The Black-scholes-merton Model: The Gershon Fintech Center Conference written by David Gershon and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2022-12-21 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains contributions by the best-known and consequential researchers who, over several decades, shaped the field of financial engineering. It presents a comprehensive and unique perspective on the historical development and the current state of derivatives research. The book covers classical and modern approaches to option pricing, realized and implied volatilities, classical and rough stochastic processes, and contingent claims analysis in corporate finance. The book is invaluable for students, academic researchers, and practitioners working with financial derivatives, market regulation, trading, risk management, and corporate decision-making.

Market Risk and Financial Markets Modeling

Author : Didier Sornette
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642279317
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (422 download)

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Book Synopsis Market Risk and Financial Markets Modeling by : Didier Sornette

Download or read book Market Risk and Financial Markets Modeling written by Didier Sornette and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-02-03 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current financial crisis has revealed serious flaws in models, measures and, potentially, theories, that failed to provide forward-looking expectations for upcoming losses originated from market risks. The Proceedings of the Perm Winter School 2011 propose insights on many key issues and advances in financial markets modeling and risk measurement aiming to bridge the gap. The key addressed topics include: hierarchical and ultrametric models of financial crashes, dynamic hedging, arbitrage free modeling the term structure of interest rates, agent based modeling of order flow, asset pricing in a fractional market, hedge funds performance and many more.