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Modeling Uncertainty In The Earth Sciences
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Book Synopsis Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences by : Jef Caers
Download or read book Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences written by Jef Caers and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-05-25 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences highlights the various issues, techniques and practical modeling tools available for modeling the uncertainty of complex Earth systems and the impact that it has on practical situations. The aim of the book is to provide an introductory overview which covers a broad range of tried-and-tested tools. Descriptions of concepts, philosophies, challenges, methodologies and workflows give the reader an understanding of the best way to make decisions under uncertainty for Earth Science problems. The book covers key issues such as: Spatial and time aspect; large complexity and dimensionality; computation power; costs of 'engineering' the Earth; uncertainty in the modeling and decision process. Focusing on reliable and practical methods this book provides an invaluable primer for the complex area of decision making with uncertainty in the Earth Sciences.
Book Synopsis Spatial Modeling Principles in Earth Sciences by : Zekai Sen
Download or read book Spatial Modeling Principles in Earth Sciences written by Zekai Sen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a revised and updated second edition, including new chapters on temporal and point uncertainty model, as well as on sampling and deterministic modeling. It is a comprehensive presentation of spatial modeling techniques used in the earth sciences, outlining original techniques developed by the author. Data collection in the earth sciences is difficult and expensive, but simple, rational and logical approaches help the reader to appreciate the fundamentals of advanced methodologies. It requires special care to gather accurate geological, hydrogeological, meteorological and hydrological information all with risk assessments. Spatial simulation methodologies in the earth sciences are essential, then, if we want to understand the variability in features such as fracture frequencies, rock quality, and grain size distribution in rock and porous media. This book outlines in a detailed yet accessible way the main spatial modeling techniques, in particular the Kriging methodology. It also presents many unique physical approaches, field cases, and sample interpretations. Since Kriging’s origin in the 1960s it has been developed into a number of new methods such as cumulative SV (CSV), point CSV (PCSV), and spatial dependence function, which have been applied in different aspects of the earth sciences. Each one of these techniques is explained in this book, as well as how they are used to model earth science phenomena such as geology, earthquakes, meteorology, and hydrology. In addition to Kriging and its variants, several alternatives to Kriging methodology are presented and the necessary steps in their applications are clearly explained. Simple spatial variation prediction methodologies are also revised with up-to-date literature, and the ways in which they relate to more advanced spatial modeling methodologies are explained. The book is a valuable resource for students, researchers and professionals of a broad range of disciplines including geology, geography, hydrology, meteorology, environment, image processing, spatial modeling and related topics. Keywords »Data mining - Geo-statistics - Kriging - Regional uncertainty - Spatial dependence - Spatial modeling - geographic data - geoscience - hydrology - image processing
Book Synopsis Random Field Models in Earth Sciences by : George Christakos
Download or read book Random Field Models in Earth Sciences written by George Christakos and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about modeling as a prinicipal component of scientific investigations. In general terms, modeling is the funamental process of combining intellectual creativity with physical knowledge and mathematical techniques in order to learn the properties of the mechanisms underlying a physical phenomenon and make predictions. The book focuses on a specific class of models, namely, random field models and certain of their physical applications in the context of a stochastic data analysis and processing research program. The term application is considered here in the sense wherein the mathematical random field model is shaping, but is also being shaped by, its objects. Key Features * This book explores the application of random field models and stochastic data processing to problems in hydrogeology, geostatistics, climate modeling, and oil reservoir engineering, among others Researchers in the geosciences who work with models of natural processes will find discussion of; * Spatiotemporal random fields * Space transformation * Multidimensional estimation * Simulation * Sampling design * Stochastic partial differential equations
Book Synopsis Value of Information in the Earth Sciences by : Jo Eidsvik
Download or read book Value of Information in the Earth Sciences written by Jo Eidsvik and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-11-19 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a unified framework for assessing the value of potential data-gathering schemes, with a focus on the Earth sciences.
Book Synopsis Modeling Uncertainty in Metric Space by : Kwangwon Park
Download or read book Modeling Uncertainty in Metric Space written by Kwangwon Park and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2011 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling uncertainty for future prediction requires drawing multiple posterior models. Such drawing within a Bayesian framework is dependent on the likelihood (data-model relationship) as well as prior distribution of the model variables, For the uncertainty assessment in the Earth models, we propose the framework of Modeling Uncertainty in Metric Space (MUMS) to achieve this in a general way. MUMS constructs a metric space where the models are represented exclusively by a distance correlated with or equal to the difference in their responses (application-tailored distance). In the framework of MUMS, various operations are available: projection of metric space by multi-dimensional scaling, model expansion by kernel Karhunen-Loeve expansion, generation of additional prior model by solving the pre-image problem, and generation of multiple posterior models by solving the post-image problem. We propose a robust solution for the pre-image problem: geologically constrained optimization, which utilizes the probability perturbation method from the solution of the fixed-point iteration algorithm. Additionally, we introduce a so-called post-image problem for obtaining the feature expansion of the ''true Earth'' by defining a distance as the difference in their responses. The combination of geologically constrained optimization and the post-image problem efficiently generates multiple posterior Earth models constrained to prior geologic information, hard data, and nonlinear time-dependent data. The proposed method provides a realistic uncertainty model for future prediction, compared with the result of the rejection sampler. We also propose a metric ensemble Kalman filter (Metric EnKF), which applies the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to the parameterizations by the kernel KL expansion in metric space. Metric EnKF overcomes some critical limitations of EnKF: it preserves prior geologic information; it creates a stable and consistent filtering. However, the results of Metric EnKF applied to various cases including the Brugge field-scale synthetic reservoir show the same problem as with the EnKF in general, that is, it does not provide a realistic uncertainty model.
Book Synopsis Models and Modeling by : Jerry P. Fairley
Download or read book Models and Modeling written by Jerry P. Fairley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-03-03 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Introduction to Models and Modeling in the Earth and Environmental Sciences offers students and professionals the opportunity to learn about groundwater modeling, starting from the basics. Using clear, physically-intuitive examples, the author systematically takes us on a tour that begins with the simplest representations of fluid flow and builds through the most important equations of groundwater hydrology. Along the way, we learn how to develop a conceptual understanding of a system, how to choose boundary and initial conditions, and how to exploit model symmetry. Other important topics covered include non-dimensionalization, sensitivity, and finite differences. Written in an eclectic and readable style that will win over even math-phobic students, this text lays the foundation for a successful career in modeling and is accessible to anyone that has completed two semesters of Calculus. Although the popular image of a geologist or environmental scientist may be the rugged adventurer, heading off into the wilderness with a compass and a hand level, the disciplines of geology, hydrogeology, and environmental sciences have become increasingly quantitative. Today’s earth science professionals routinely work with mathematical and computer models, and career success often demands a broad range of analytical and computational skills. An Introduction to Models and Modeling in the Earth and Environmental Sciencesis written for students and professionals who want to learn the craft of modeling, and do more than just run “black box” computer simulations.
Book Synopsis Environmental Modelling by : Keith Beven
Download or read book Environmental Modelling written by Keith Beven and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-09-03 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty in the predictions of science when applied to the environment is an issue of great current relevance in relation to the impacts of climate change, protecting against natural and man-made disasters, pollutant transport and sustainable resource management. However, it is often ignored both by scientists and decision makers, or interpreted as a conflict or disagreement between scientists. This is not necessarily the case, the scientists might well agree, but their predictions would still be uncertain and knowledge of that uncertainty might be important in decision making. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? introduces students, scientists and decision makers to: the different concepts and techniques of uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction the philosophical background to different concepts of uncertainty the constraint of uncertainties by the collection of observations and data assimilation in real-time forecasting techniques for decision making under uncertainty. This book will be relevant to environmental modellers, practitioners and decision makers in hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, meteorology and oceanography, geomorphology, geochemistry, soil science, pollutant transport and climate change. A companion website for the book can be found at www.uncertain-future.org.uk
Book Synopsis Demystifying Climate Models by : Andrew Gettelman
Download or read book Demystifying Climate Models written by Andrew Gettelman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-09 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.
Book Synopsis Reservoir Model Design by : Philip Ringrose
Download or read book Reservoir Model Design written by Philip Ringrose and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives practical advice and ready to use tips on the design and construction of subsurface reservoir models. The design elements cover rock architecture, petrophysical property modelling, multi-scale data integration, upscaling and uncertainty analysis. Philip Ringrose and Mark Bentley share their experience, gained from over a hundred reservoir modelling studies in 25 countries covering clastic, carbonate and fractured reservoir types, and for a range of fluid systems – oil, gas and CO2, production and injection, and effects of different mobility ratios. The intimate relationship between geology and fluid flow is explored throughout, showing how the impact of fluid type, displacement mechanism and the subtleties of single- and multi-phase flow combine to influence reservoir model design. The second edition updates the existing sections and adds sections on the following topics: · A new chapter on modelling for CO2 storage · A new chapter on modelling workflows · An extended chapter on fractured reservoir modelling · An extended chapter on multi-scale modelling · An extended chapter on the quantification of uncertainty · A revised section on the future of modelling based on recently published papers by the authors The main audience for this book is the community of applied geoscientists and engineers involved in understanding fluid flow in the subsurface: whether for the extraction of oil or gas or the injection of CO2 or the subsurface storage of energy in general. We will always need to understand how fluids move in the subsurface and we will always require skills to model these quantitatively. The second edition of this reference book therefore aims to highlight the modelling skills developed for the current energy industry which will also be required for the energy transition of the future. The book is aimed at technical-professional practitioners in the energy industry and is also suitable for a range of Master’s level courses in reservoir characterisation, modelling and engineering. • Provides practical advice and guidelines for users of 3D reservoir modelling packages • Gives advice on reservoir model design for the growing world-wide activity in subsurface reservoir modelling • Covers rock modelling, property modelling, upscaling, fluid flow and uncertainty handling • Encompasses clastic, carbonate and fractured reservoirs • Applies to multi-fluid cases and applications: hydrocarbons and CO2, production and storage; rewritten for use in the Energy Transition.
Book Synopsis Springer Handbook of Model-Based Science by : Lorenzo Magnani
Download or read book Springer Handbook of Model-Based Science written by Lorenzo Magnani and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-05-22 with total page 1180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook offers the first comprehensive reference guide to the interdisciplinary field of model-based reasoning. It highlights the role of models as mediators between theory and experimentation, and as educational devices, as well as their relevance in testing hypotheses and explanatory functions. The Springer Handbook merges philosophical, cognitive and epistemological perspectives on models with the more practical needs related to the application of this tool across various disciplines and practices. The result is a unique, reliable source of information that guides readers toward an understanding of different aspects of model-based science, such as the theoretical and cognitive nature of models, as well as their practical and logical aspects. The inferential role of models in hypothetical reasoning, abduction and creativity once they are constructed, adopted, and manipulated for different scientific and technological purposes is also discussed. Written by a group of internationally renowned experts in philosophy, the history of science, general epistemology, mathematics, cognitive and computer science, physics and life sciences, as well as engineering, architecture, and economics, this Handbook uses numerous diagrams, schemes and other visual representations to promote a better understanding of the concepts. This also makes it highly accessible to an audience of scholars and students with different scientific backgrounds. All in all, the Springer Handbook of Model-Based Science represents the definitive application-oriented reference guide to the interdisciplinary field of model-based reasoning.
Book Synopsis Characterization of Ore-Forming Systems from Geological, Geochemical and Geophysical Studies by : K. Gessner
Download or read book Characterization of Ore-Forming Systems from Geological, Geochemical and Geophysical Studies written by K. Gessner and published by Geological Society of London. This book was released on 2018-08-07 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economically viable concentrations of mineral resources are uncommon in Earth’s crust. Most ore deposits that were mined in the past or are currently being extracted were found at or near Earth’s surface, often serendipitously. To meet the future demand for mineral resources, exploration success hinges on identifying targets at depth. Achieving this requires accurate and informed models of the Earth's crust that are consistent with all available geological, geochemical and geophysical information, paired with an understanding of how ore-forming systems relate to Earth’s evolving structure. Contributions to this volume address the future resources challenge by (i) applying advanced microscale geochemical detection and characterization methods, (ii) introducing more rigorous 3D Earth models, (iii) exploring critical behaviour and coupled processes, (iv) evaluating the role of geodynamic and tectonic setting and (v) applying 3D structural models to characterize specific ore-forming systems.
Book Synopsis Computational Challenges in the Geosciences by : Clint Dawson
Download or read book Computational Challenges in the Geosciences written by Clint Dawson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-09-17 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Computational Challenges in the Geosciences addresses a cross-section of grand challenge problems arising in geoscience applications, including groundwater and petroleum reservoir simulation, hurricane storm surge, oceanography, volcanic eruptions and landslides, and tsunamis. Each of these applications gives rise to complex physical and mathematical models spanning multiple space-time scales, which can only be studied through computer simulation. The data required by the models is often highly uncertain, and the numerical solution of the models requires sophisticated algorithms which are mathematically accurate, computationally efficient and yet must preserve basic physical properties of the models. This volume summarizes current methodologies and future research challenges in this broad and important field.
Book Synopsis Issues in Earth Sciences, Geology, and Geophysics: 2013 Edition by :
Download or read book Issues in Earth Sciences, Geology, and Geophysics: 2013 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2013-05-01 with total page 1149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in Earth Sciences, Geology, and Geophysics: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. The editors have built Issues in Earth Sciences, Geology, and Geophysics: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Geomagnetism and Aeronomy in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Earth Sciences, Geology, and Geophysics: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.
Book Synopsis Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment by : Karin Riley
Download or read book Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment written by Karin Riley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Book Synopsis Applied Statistical Modeling and Data Analytics by : Srikanta Mishra
Download or read book Applied Statistical Modeling and Data Analytics written by Srikanta Mishra and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2017-10-27 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied Statistical Modeling and Data Analytics: A Practical Guide for the Petroleum Geosciences provides a practical guide to many of the classical and modern statistical techniques that have become established for oil and gas professionals in recent years. It serves as a "how to" reference volume for the practicing petroleum engineer or geoscientist interested in applying statistical methods in formation evaluation, reservoir characterization, reservoir modeling and management, and uncertainty quantification. Beginning with a foundational discussion of exploratory data analysis, probability distributions and linear regression modeling, the book focuses on fundamentals and practical examples of such key topics as multivariate analysis, uncertainty quantification, data-driven modeling, and experimental design and response surface analysis. Data sets from the petroleum geosciences are extensively used to demonstrate the applicability of these techniques. The book will also be useful for professionals dealing with subsurface flow problems in hydrogeology, geologic carbon sequestration, and nuclear waste disposal. Authored by internationally renowned experts in developing and applying statistical methods for oil & gas and other subsurface problem domains Written by practitioners for practitioners Presents an easy to follow narrative which progresses from simple concepts to more challenging ones Includes online resources with software applications and practical examples for the most relevant and popular statistical methods, using data sets from the petroleum geosciences Addresses the theory and practice of statistical modeling and data analytics from the perspective of petroleum geoscience applications
Book Synopsis Quantitative Analysis and Modeling of Earth and Environmental Data by : Jiaping Wu
Download or read book Quantitative Analysis and Modeling of Earth and Environmental Data written by Jiaping Wu and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2021-12-04 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative Analysis and Modeling of Earth and Environmental Data: Space-Time and Spacetime Data Considerations introduces the notion of chronotopologic data analysis that offers a systematic, quantitative analysis of multi-sourced data and provides information about the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of natural attributes (physical, biological, health, social). It includes models and techniques for handling data that may vary by space and/or time, and aims to improve understanding of the physical laws of change underlying the available numerical datasets, while taking into consideration the in-situ uncertainties and relevant measurement errors (conceptual, technical, computational). It considers the synthesis of scientific theory-based methods (stochastic modeling, modern geostatistics) and data-driven techniques (machine learning, artificial neural networks) so that their individual strengths are combined by acting symbiotically and complementing each other. The notions and methods presented in Quantitative Analysis and Modeling of Earth and Environmental Data: Space-Time and Spacetime Data Considerations cover a wide range of data in various forms and sources, including hard measurements, soft observations, secondary information and auxiliary variables (ground-level measurements, satellite observations, scientific instruments and records, protocols and surveys, empirical models and charts). Including real-world practical applications as well as practice exercises, this book is a comprehensive step-by-step tutorial of theory-based and data-driven techniques that will help students and researchers master data analysis and modeling in earth and environmental sciences (including environmental health and human exposure applications). Explores the analysis and processing of chronotopologic (i.e., space-time and spacetime) data that varies spatially and/or temporally, which is the case with the majority of data in scientific and engineering disciplines Studies the synthesis of scientific theory and empirical evidence (in its various forms) that offers a mathematically rigorous and physically meaningful assessment of real-world phenomena Covers a wide range of data describing a variety of attributes characterizing physical phenomena and systems including earth, ocean and atmospheric variables, environmental and ecological parameters, population health states, disease indicators, and social and economic characteristics Includes case studies and practice exercises at the end of each chapter for both real-world applications and deeper understanding of the concepts presented
Book Synopsis Advances in Geophysics by : Cedric Schmelzbach
Download or read book Advances in Geophysics written by Cedric Schmelzbach and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2018-11-13 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Geophysics is a highly-respected publication in the field of geophysics. Since 1952, each volume has been eagerly awaited, frequently consulted, and praised by researchers and reviewers alike. Now with over 50 volumes, the series contains much material still relevant today – truly an essential publication for researchers in all fields of geophysics. Provides high-level reviews of the latest innovations in geophysics Written by recognized experts in the field Presents an essential publication for researchers in all fields of geophysics
