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Modeling Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Paths In A Selection Of European Countries
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Book Synopsis Modeling Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Paths in a Selection of European Countries by : Mr.Daniel Kanda
Download or read book Modeling Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Paths in a Selection of European Countries written by Mr.Daniel Kanda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For a number of countries - Italy, Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, Ireland, and France - this paper develops an inter-temporal model that elicits the implied country-preferences over balancing the conflicting objectives of fiscal consolidation and reduction of economic slack. The model suggests that some front-loading of adjustment is desirable, although the extent would vary by country preferences. It also finds that proposed consolidations may prove to be stronger than acceptable, especially if somewhat larger than anticipated fiscal multipliers lead to a sizeable economic deceleration.
Book Synopsis Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries by : Mr.Daniel Kanda
Download or read book Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries written by Mr.Daniel Kanda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper first attempts to quantify the natural resource wealth of Suriname from the perspective of its impact on the fiscal position, and then assesses the fiscal sustainability gap in that context. It then presents models to address the question of the optimal path of fiscal consolidation given the outlook for natural resource wealth, macroeconomic conditions, and country authority preferences.
Book Synopsis A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability by : Jean-Marc Fournier
Download or read book A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability written by Jean-Marc Fournier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-22 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fiscal reaction function to debt and the cycle is built on a buffer-stock model for the government. This model inspired by the buffer-stock model of the consumer (Deaton 1991; Carroll 1997) includes a debt limit instead of the Intertemporal Budget Constraint (IBC). The IBC is weak (Bohn, 2007), a debt limit is more realistic as it reflects the risk of losing market access. This risk increases the welfare cost of fiscal stimulus at high debt. As a result, the higher the debt, the less governments should smooth the cycle. A larger reaction of interest rates to debt and higher hysteresis magnify this interaction between the debt level and the appropriate reaction to shocks. With very persistent shocks, the appropriate reaction to negative shocks in highly indebted countries can even be procyclical.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1455286648 Total Pages :144 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (552 download)
Book Synopsis Kingdom of Netherlands by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Kingdom of Netherlands written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-21 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Important issues of the Netherlands are discussed. Openness to trade has benefited the Netherlands before the crisis and has supported the recent recovery process. However, both financial openness and trade linkages have also been a transmission channel for the financial crisis. Synchronized fiscal tightening across Europe has important spillover effects for GDP growth. The improvement on the supply side of credit has contributed to a normalization of the credit market. However, the recent increase in the financial stress index indicates that the situation is still fragile.
Book Synopsis The Fiscal Stance in Japan: A Model-based Analysis by : Jean-Marc Fournier
Download or read book The Fiscal Stance in Japan: A Model-based Analysis written by Jean-Marc Fournier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-08-19 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses Japan’s fiscal stance in the past and the future with a stochastic structural model called the Buffer-Stock Model of the Government. Our retrospective analysis suggests that the fiscal stance in the 1990s and the early 2000s was overall looser than the model recommendations. As for the future, the model advises the near-term fiscal policy to be supportive with a view to narrowing the output gap and minimizing hysteresis, while recommending a fiscal consolidation over the medium-term at a gradual pace.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498335985 Total Pages :48 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Guatemala by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Guatemala written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-09-18 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues note estimates Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using the production function approach, univariate statistical filters, and multivariate models based on the Kalman filter method. In the production function approach, potential output is modeled as a function of potential labor and capital inputs, and total factor productivity (TFP). Results are robust to different methodologies and suggest that its potential output growth is about 3.5 percent and the output gap is on average closed. Structural breaks in potential output were identified in 1994, 2003, and 2008, which coincide to the Mexican tequila crisis, the free trade agreement with the US, and the financial crisis. Going forward, it is critical to undertake structural reforms to strengthen capital, labor, and TFP growth in order to accelerate potential growth. Univariate statistical methods provide a simple measure of potential output. The production function approach also indicates that the absence of productivity growth is a significant barrier to potential output growth.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475578253 Total Pages :39 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Guatemala by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Guatemala written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-02 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost closed. Results are highly robust among different methodologies. Among the methods used, several well-known time series filters and two different estimations of a state-space model are included. Additionally, a test for structural breaks in the series of potential GDP is presented. All methodologies conclude that the output gap at the end of 2012 is almost closed at -0.2 percent of potential GDP.
Book Synopsis Optimal Fiscal Path Considerations by : Mr. Ippei Shibata
Download or read book Optimal Fiscal Path Considerations written by Mr. Ippei Shibata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-07-11 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite achieving a rapid reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years, Portugal's debt ratio remains relatively high at 113.9 percent of GDP in end-2022. This paper employs an analytical model to determine the appropriate trajectory for structural consolidation to sustain ambitious debt reduction over the medium term, taking into account the uncertainties in the economic landscape. The model points to a need for continued fiscal tightening between 2024 and 2028. Optimal consolidation would be higher under higher longterm interest rates, lower medium-term growth prospects, or increased market sensitivity to debt.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :29 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Kuwait by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Kuwait written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-09-18 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kuwait: Selected Issues
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498305571 Total Pages :100 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Costa Rica by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Costa Rica written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-05 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper examines several real sector issues, including estimates of potential output, the effect of Intel’s withdrawal on gross domestic product (GDP), labor market and inequality and electricity prices in Costa Rica. The production function approach shows that the main drivers of fluctuations in GDP growth are total factor productivity (TFP) and labor supply. These results on TFP, however, should be interpreted with caution. The TFP measure is a residual—the difference between output growth and the growth in the quantity (and quality) of inputs. Estimates suggest that potential GDP growth is about 4.3 percent, the output gap is broadly closed, and Intel’s withdrawal will lower real GDP growth in about 1/2 percentage point. Significant wage premia are identified across public versus private sectors and some evidence of intergenerational inequality is also presented. Electricity tariffs are found to be regionally competitive albeit with inefficiencies in their determination.
Book Synopsis Finland by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Finland written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-31 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues and Analytical Note on Finland discusses the potential spillovers to Finland from various shocks associated with cross-country interlinkages. The note provides an overview of the trade and financial linkages, assesses the impact of global fiscal consolidation on Finland via trade links, quantifies dynamic contributions from external sources to growth, and uses these contributions to forecast the potential loss to Finnish GDP from a growth slowdown in other European countries; and analyzes the potential impact from the banking sector or sovereign stress.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475562357 Total Pages :46 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Suriname by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Suriname written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-04 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper focuses on constructing a high-frequency economic growth indicator for Suriname. Most economic data for Suriname are available only with a substantial time lag and on a low-frequency basis, impeding such analyses. This paper presents a simple econometric model that closely approximates GDP in recent years. The model estimates are used to construct a monthly indicator of economic activity for Suriname. The indicator provides information about the pace of economic activity close to real time, typically with a one- to two-month lag.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484397037 Total Pages :72 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis El Salvador by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book El Salvador written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-22 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Book Synopsis The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity by : Richard Hemming
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-11 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp increase in fiscal deficits and public debt in most advanced and several developing economies has raised concerns about the sustainability of public finances and highlighted the need for a significant adjustment over the medium term. This paper assesses the usefulness of fiscal rules in supporting fiscal consolidation, discusses the design and implementation of rules based on a new data base spanning the whole Fund membership, and explores the fiscal framework that could be adopted as countries emerge from the crisis.
Book Synopsis Will Corporate Tax Consolidation Improve Efficiency in the EU? by : Albert van der Horst
Download or read book Will Corporate Tax Consolidation Improve Efficiency in the EU? written by Albert van der Horst and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Consolidation of the tax base in the European Union is expected to curve compliance costs and reduce prodit shifting. A number of proposals for consolidation from the European Commission are simulated wirh the aplied general equilibrim model CORTAX. We show that benefits from consolidation are offset by two weaknesses in theproposals for a common consolidated tax base. Formula apportionment, which is neede to allocate the cosolidated taxable profits across jurisdiction, creates new tax planning possibilities for MNEs and allows them to benefit from existing tax rate differentials in the European Union. In addition, it triggers tax competition as member states may attract foreign investment by reducing their tax rates. the socond distorition is an unlevel playing field, which is introduced if only part of the firm participate in the consolidation. The gains from consolidation can be fully grasped if it is obliged for all firms and is it is accompanied by a harmonisation of the tax rate.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy in the Context of Financial Crisis by : Fredj Jawadi
Download or read book Monetary Policy in the Context of Financial Crisis written by Fredj Jawadi and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2015-07-02 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is Volume 24 of the monograph series International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics. ISETE publishes proceedings of conferences and symposia, as well as research monographs of the highest quality and importance.