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Measuring The Output Gap Using Stochastic Model Specification Search
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Book Synopsis A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States by : Ali Alichi
Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Econometric Methods by : Joshua Chan
Download or read book Bayesian Econometric Methods written by Joshua Chan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-08-15 with total page 491 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Illustrates Bayesian theory and application through a series of exercises in question and answer format.
Book Synopsis Statistical Modeling and Computation by : Dirk P. Kroese
Download or read book Statistical Modeling and Computation written by Dirk P. Kroese and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-18 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This textbook on statistical modeling and statistical inference will assist advanced undergraduate and graduate students. Statistical Modeling and Computation provides a unique introduction to modern Statistics from both classical and Bayesian perspectives. It also offers an integrated treatment of Mathematical Statistics and modern statistical computation, emphasizing statistical modeling, computational techniques, and applications. Each of the three parts will cover topics essential to university courses. Part I covers the fundamentals of probability theory. In Part II, the authors introduce a wide variety of classical models that include, among others, linear regression and ANOVA models. In Part III, the authors address the statistical analysis and computation of various advanced models, such as generalized linear, state-space and Gaussian models. Particular attention is paid to fast Monte Carlo techniques for Bayesian inference on these models. Throughout the book the authors include a large number of illustrative examples and solved problems. The book also features a section with solutions, an appendix that serves as a MATLAB primer, and a mathematical supplement.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy in the Southern European Union Countries by : Milan Bednář
Download or read book Fiscal Policy in the Southern European Union Countries written by Milan Bednář and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-05-10 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines public debt hoarding within the Euro Area, which is one of the most complicated challenges regarding modern fiscal policy-making. The author offers an up-to-date analysis of the fiscal situations of Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece. The book describes key mechanisms of debt transmission, discusses the potential establishment of fiscal and debt union in the EU, identifies numerous implications, and connects the fiscal positions of the examined countries with the structural flaws of the Euro Area and the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Moreover, the work presents an estimation of structural budget balances, including a comparison with the estimates of major international institutions such as the IMF, OECD, and European Commission. A separate chapter is devoted to analysing the fiscal policy determinants, using time series since the late 19th century, and the issue of fiscal policy efficiency. Finally, the work provides an overview of debt resolution options. Overall, this book offers eight core chapters intended for the public, professional economists, and policymakers.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models by : Edward P. Herbst
Download or read book Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models written by Edward P. Herbst and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-29 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations by : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Book Synopsis The Inflation-Targeting Debate by : Ben S. Bernanke
Download or read book The Inflation-Targeting Debate written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
Book Synopsis A Practitioner's Guide to Stochastic Frontier Analysis Using Stata by : Subal C. Kumbhakar
Download or read book A Practitioner's Guide to Stochastic Frontier Analysis Using Stata written by Subal C. Kumbhakar and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-01-26 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Practitioner's Guide to Stochastic Frontier Analysis Using Stata provides practitioners in academia and industry with a step-by-step guide on how to conduct efficiency analysis using the stochastic frontier approach. The authors explain in detail how to estimate production, cost, and profit efficiency and introduce the basic theory of each model in an accessible way, using empirical examples that demonstrate the interpretation and application of models. This book also provides computer code, allowing users to apply the models in their own work, and incorporates the most recent stochastic frontier models developed in academic literature. Such recent developments include models of heteroscedasticity and exogenous determinants of inefficiency, scaling models, panel models with time-varying inefficiency, growth models, and panel models that separate firm effects and persistent and transient inefficiency. Immensely helpful to applied researchers, this book bridges the chasm between theory and practice, expanding the range of applications in which production frontier analysis may be implemented.
Book Synopsis Measurement of Productivity and Efficiency by : Robin C. Sickles
Download or read book Measurement of Productivity and Efficiency written by Robin C. Sickles and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 631 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a comprehensive approach to productivity and efficiency analysis using economic and econometric theory.
Book Synopsis Applied Nonparametric Econometrics by : Daniel J. Henderson
Download or read book Applied Nonparametric Econometrics written by Daniel J. Henderson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-01-19 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The majority of empirical research in economics ignores the potential benefits of nonparametric methods, while the majority of advances in nonparametric theory ignores the problems faced in applied econometrics. This book helps bridge this gap between applied economists and theoretical nonparametric econometricians. It discusses in depth, and in terms that someone with only one year of graduate econometrics can understand, basic to advanced nonparametric methods. The analysis starts with density estimation and motivates the procedures through methods that should be familiar to the reader. It then moves on to kernel regression, estimation with discrete data, and advanced methods such as estimation with panel data and instrumental variables models. The book pays close attention to the issues that arise with programming, computing speed, and application. In each chapter, the methods discussed are applied to actual data, paying attention to presentation of results and potential pitfalls.
Book Synopsis Empirical Asset Pricing by : Wayne Ferson
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Frontier Analysis by : Subal C. Kumbhakar
Download or read book Stochastic Frontier Analysis written by Subal C. Kumbhakar and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-03-10 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern textbook presentations of production economics typically treat producers as successful optimizers. Conventional econometric practice has generally followed this paradigm, and least squares based regression techniques have been used to estimate production, cost, profit and other functions. In such a framework deviations from maximum output, from minimum cost and cost minimizing input demands, and from maximum profit and profit maximizing output supplies and input demands, are attributed exclusively to random statistical noise. However casual empiricism and the business press both make persuasive cases for the argument that, although producers may indeed attempt to optimize, they do not always succeed. This book develops econometric techniques for the estimation of production, cost and profit frontiers, and for the estimation of the technical and economic efficiency with which producers approach these frontiers. Since these frontiers envelop rather than intersect the data, and since the authors continue to maintain the traditional econometric belief in the presence of external forces contributing to random statistical noise, the work is titled Stochastic Frontier Analysis.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics by : John Geweke
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics written by John Geweke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-29 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as state space models and particle filtering. It also includes chapters on Bayesian principles and methodology.
Book Synopsis Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks by : Davide Debortoli
Download or read book Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks written by Davide Debortoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-21 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Book Synopsis What Did Monetary Policy Do? by : Carmine Trecroci
Download or read book What Did Monetary Policy Do? written by Carmine Trecroci and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
