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Measuring Forecasting Genera
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Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Book Synopsis Intermittent Demand Forecasting by : John E. Boylan
Download or read book Intermittent Demand Forecasting written by John E. Boylan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-06-02 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
Book Synopsis Making Climate Forecasts Matter by : National Research Council
Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Sebastian Gell
Download or read book Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Sebastian Gell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Book Synopsis Time-Series Forecasting by : Chris Chatfield
Download or read book Time-Series Forecasting written by Chris Chatfield and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2000-10-25 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space
Book Synopsis Statistics for the Social Sciences by : Rand R. Wilcox
Download or read book Statistics for the Social Sciences written by Rand R. Wilcox and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book not only provides a simple description of the basic concepts and principles of statistical analysis for the social sciences, it also points to failures of methods and offers ways to correct such problems. For example, it was once thought that standard hypothesis testing procedures for means have relatively high power under nonnormality. Many studies have since demonstrated that power can be very low even with very slight departures from normality. This bookexplains how and why such departures can occur. Statistics for the Social Sciences goes beyond the typical introductory material on probability and statistical inference to incorporate modern topics of critical importance in social science research. The text includes coverage of such topics asrobust methods for comparing measures of location; modern regression techniques; recent developments associated with heteroscedastic procedures; the latest developments in nonparametric statistics; and a full chapter on multiple comparison procedures. The accompanying disk contains more than 150 easy-to-use Minitab macros that provide the student with state-of-the-art statistical methods not available in standard statistical packages. Once the data are read into Minitab, a single command provides access to more powerful, more flexible, and more accurate statistical procedures. Extensive use of real data in examples and exercises Includes a disk with 150 Minitab macros for all the modern, nonstandard procedures Explains why certain methods might fail and what to do to correct such problems Provides exercises at the end of each chapter
Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Economic Time Series by : Michael Clements
Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-10-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Book Synopsis Assessment, Measurement, and Prediction for Personnel Decisions by : Robert M. Guion
Download or read book Assessment, Measurement, and Prediction for Personnel Decisions written by Robert M. Guion and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2011-02-25 with total page 649 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert Guion’s best seller is now available in this new second edition. This noted book offers a comprehensive and practical view of assessment –based personnel decisions not available elsewhere in a single source. This edition more frankly evaluates the current research and practice and presents challenges that will change the basic thinking about staffing systems. This new edition suggests new directions for research and practice, includes emphasis on modern computers and technology useful in assessment, and pays more attention to prediction of individual growth and globalization challenges in the assessment process. The book will be of interest to faculty and students in Industrial Organizational psychology, human resource management and business. IO psychologists in private business and public sector organizations who have responsibilities for staffing and an interest in measurement and statistics will find this book useful.
Book Synopsis Forecast Verification by : Ian T. Jolliffe
Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on General Government Matters, Department of Commerce, and Related Agencies Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :1188 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis General Government Matters, Department of Commerce, and Related Agencies Appropriations for 1962 by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on General Government Matters, Department of Commerce, and Related Agencies
Download or read book General Government Matters, Department of Commerce, and Related Agencies Appropriations for 1962 written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on General Government Matters, Department of Commerce, and Related Agencies and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 1188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Survey Sampling and Measurement by : N. Krishnan Namboodiri
Download or read book Survey Sampling and Measurement written by N. Krishnan Namboodiri and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-09-03 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Survey Sampling and Measurement contains the invited papers presented at the Second Symposium on Survey Sampling held at Chapel Hill in April 1977. The volume is divided into seven parts. Part I makes a plea towards improving the quality of sample surveys via the creation of a computerized system of information on error estimates associated with the design and execution of surveys. It also suggests a realistic agenda for future work in survey sampling practice and theory. Part II contains papers dealing with specific methodological problems. Part III examines selected problems of analysis of survey data. The papers in Part IV deal with nonresponse, undercoverage, and related problems. Part V focuses on time series analysis. Part VI discusses applications of sample survey data and methods. Part VII addresses the gap between current survey practices and recent theoretical developments. It is hoped that this volume will be of interest to survey statisticians as well as to survey data users. If it stimulates thoughtful and courageous attack on some of the unresolved problems in survey sampling, its mission will have been amply fulfilled
Book Synopsis Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2011 Edition by :
Download or read book Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2011 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2012-01-09 with total page 1338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2011 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ eBook that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about General Economic Research and Application. The editors have built Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2011 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about General Economic Research and Application in this eBook to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2011 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.
Book Synopsis Hazardous Forecasts and Crisis Scenario Generator by : Arnaud Clément-Grandcourt
Download or read book Hazardous Forecasts and Crisis Scenario Generator written by Arnaud Clément-Grandcourt and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2015-10-06 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a crisis scenario generator with black swans, black butterflies and worst case scenarios. It is the most useful scenario generator that can be used to manage assets in a crisis-prone period, offering more reliable values for Value at Risk (VaR), Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and Tail Value at Risk (TVaR). Hazardous Forecasts and Crisis Scenario Generator questions how to manage assets when crisis probability increases, enabling you to adopt a process for using generators in order to be well prepared for handling crises. - Evaluates risk-oriented philosophy, forecast risk-oriented philosophy and its processes - Features scenario-building processes, with an emphasis on main and extreme scenarios - Discusses asset management processes using a generator methodology to avoid risk understatement and increase optimization.
Author :National Council on Marine Resources and Engineering Development (U.S.) Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :756 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (318 download)
Book Synopsis Marine Research, Fiscal Year 1968 by : National Council on Marine Resources and Engineering Development (U.S.)
Download or read book Marine Research, Fiscal Year 1968 written by National Council on Marine Resources and Engineering Development (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 756 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Selected Water Resources Abstracts by :
Download or read book Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book General Technical Report SE written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 748 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: