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Measures Of Potential Output
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Book Synopsis Measurement of the Output Gap by : Pierre St.-Amant
Download or read book Measurement of the Output Gap written by Pierre St.-Amant and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.
Book Synopsis Measures of Potential Output by : Mr.Fabio Scacciavillani
Download or read book Measures of Potential Output written by Mr.Fabio Scacciavillani and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-07-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift toward a slower growth path after the dramatic developments associated with the years of heavy immigration. Israel poses a challenge because traditional methods of measuring potential output assume relatively stable conditions over an extended period of time. We employ five methodologies to derive estimates and find that four of the measures imply the slowdown stems largely from reduced growth of potential output rather than a cyclical slowdown.
Book Synopsis Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications by : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Download or read book Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-06 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.
Book Synopsis A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output by : Patrick Blagrave
Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Book Synopsis Second-Generation Fiscal Rules by : Luc Eyraud
Download or read book Second-Generation Fiscal Rules written by Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog
Book Synopsis Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? by : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Download or read book Beyond GDP written by Marc Fleurbaey and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-04-11 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of recurrent criticism and an impressive production of alternative indicators by scholars and NGOs, GDP remains the central indicator of countries' success. This book revisits the foundations of indicators of social welfare, and critically examines the four main alternatives to GDP that have been proposed: composite indicators, subjective well-being indexes, capabilities (the underlying philosophy of the Human Development Index), and equivalent incomes. Its provocative thesis is that the problem with GDP is not that it uses a monetary metric but that it focuses on a narrow set of aspects of individual lives. It is actually possible to build an alternative, more comprehensive, monetary indicator that takes income as its first benchmark and adds or subtracts corrections that represent the benefit or cost of non-market aspects of individual lives. Such a measure can respect the values and preferences of the people and give as much weight as they do to the non-market dimensions. A further provocative idea is that, in contrast, most of the currently available alternative indicators, including subjective well-being indexes, are not as respectful of people's values because, like GDP, they are too narrow and give specific weights to the various dimensions of life in a more uniform way, without taking account of the diversity of views on life in the population. The popular attraction that such alternative indicators derive from being non-monetary is therefore based on equivocation. Moreover, it is argued in this book that "greening" GDP and relative indicators is not the proper way to incorporate sustainability concerns. Sustainability involves predicting possible future paths, therefore different indicators than those assessing the current situation. While various indicators have been popular (adjusted net savings, ecological footprint), none of them involves the necessary forecasting effort that a proper evaluation of possible futures requires.
Book Synopsis OECD Guidelines on Measuring Subjective Well-being by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Guidelines on Measuring Subjective Well-being written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These Guidelines represent the first attempt to provide international recommendations on collecting, publishing, and analysing subjective well-being data.
Book Synopsis The Great Inflation by : Michael D. Bordo
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Book Synopsis The Predator State by : James K. Galbraith
Download or read book The Predator State written by James K. Galbraith and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2008-08-05 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The cult of the free market has dominated economic policy-talk since the Reagan revolution of nearly thirty years ago. Tax cuts and small government, monetarism, balanced budgets, deregulation, and free trade are the core elements of this dogma, a dogma so successful that even many liberals accept it. But a funny thing happened on the bridge to the twenty-first century. While liberals continue to bow before the free-market altar, conservatives in the style of George W. Bush have abandoned it altogether. That is why principled conservatives -- the Reagan true believers -- long ago abandoned Bush. Enter James K. Galbraith, the iconoclastic economist. In this riveting book, Galbraith first dissects the stale remains of Reaganism and shows how Bush and company had no choice except to dump them into the trash. He then explores the true nature of the Bush regime: a "corporate republic," bringing the methods and mentality of big business to public life; a coalition of lobbies, doing the bidding of clients in the oil, mining, military, pharmaceutical, agribusiness, insurance, and media industries; and a predator state, intent not on reducing government but rather on diverting public cash into private hands. In plain English, the Republican Party has been hijacked by political leaders who long since stopped caring if reality conformed to their message. Galbraith follows with an impertinent question: if conservatives no longer take free markets seriously, why should liberals? Why keep liberal thought in the straitjacket of pay-as-you-go, of assigning inflation control to the Federal Reserve, of attempting to "make markets work"? Why not build a new economic policy based on what is really happening in this country? The real economy is not a free-market economy. It is a complex combination of private and public institutions, including Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, higher education, the housing finance system, and a vast federal research establishment. The real problems and challenges -- inequality, climate change, the infrastructure deficit, the subprime crisis, and the future of the dollar -- are problems that cannot be solved by incantations about the market. They will be solved only with planning, with standards and other policies that transcend and even transform markets. A timely, provocative work whose message will endure beyond this election season, The Predator State will appeal to the broad audience of thoughtful Americans who wish to understand the forces at work in our economy and culture and who seek to live in a nation that is both prosperous and progressive.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Rules by : John B. Taylor
Download or read book Monetary Policy Rules written by John B. Taylor and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.
Book Synopsis How Will You Measure Your Life? (Harvard Business Review Classics) by : Clayton M. Christensen
Download or read book How Will You Measure Your Life? (Harvard Business Review Classics) written by Clayton M. Christensen and published by Harvard Business Review Press. This book was released on 2017-01-17 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the spring of 2010, Harvard Business School’s graduating class asked HBS professor Clay Christensen to address them—but not on how to apply his principles and thinking to their post-HBS careers. The students wanted to know how to apply his wisdom to their personal lives. He shared with them a set of guidelines that have helped him find meaning in his own life, which led to this now-classic article. Although Christensen’s thinking is rooted in his deep religious faith, these are strategies anyone can use. Since 1922, Harvard Business Review has been a leading source of breakthrough ideas in management practice. The Harvard Business Review Classics series now offers you the opportunity to make these seminal pieces a part of your permanent management library. Each highly readable volume contains a groundbreaking idea that continues to shape best practices and inspire countless managers around the world.
Book Synopsis How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy in the European Union by : Jesus Ferreiro
Download or read book Fiscal Policy in the European Union written by Jesus Ferreiro and published by Palgrave MacMillan. This book was released on 2008-11-27 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book offers a comprehensive analysis of current national fiscal policies in the European Union and European Monetary Union, and provides insights into the consequences of these fiscal policies on economic activity. With contributions from a range of experts, the book focuses on the coordination problems between the single monetary policy and national fiscal policies, and the negative impact on the capacity of fiscal policy to correct short-term economic fluctuations and to accelerate economic growth in the long-term in European economies. This book is an essential read for all interested in the role of fiscal policy in the European Union."--BOOK JACKET.
Book Synopsis General Theory Of Employment , Interest And Money by : John Maynard Keynes
Download or read book General Theory Of Employment , Interest And Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Atlantic Publishers & Dist. This book was released on 2016-04 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Maynard Keynes is the great British economist of the twentieth century whose hugely influential work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and * is undoubtedly the century's most important book on economics--strongly influencing economic theory and practice, particularly with regard to the role of government in stimulating and regulating a nation's economic life. Keynes's work has undergone significant revaluation in recent years, and "Keynesian" views which have been widely defended for so long are now perceived as at odds with Keynes's own thinking. Recent scholarship and research has demonstrated considerable rivalry and controversy concerning the proper interpretation of Keynes's works, such that recourse to the original text is all the more important. Although considered by a few critics that the sentence structures of the book are quite incomprehensible and almost unbearable to read, the book is an essential reading for all those who desire a basic education in economics. The key to understanding Keynes is the notion that at particular times in the business cycle, an economy can become over-productive (or under-consumptive) and thus, a vicious spiral is begun that results in massive layoffs and cuts in production as businesses attempt to equilibrate aggregate supply and demand. Thus, full employment is only one of many or multiple macro equilibria. If an economy reaches an underemployment equilibrium, something is necessary to boost or stimulate demand to produce full employment. This something could be business investment but because of the logic and individualist nature of investment decisions, it is unlikely to rapidly restore full employment. Keynes logically seizes upon the public budget and government expenditures as the quickest way to restore full employment. Borrowing the * to finance the deficit from private households and businesses is a quick, direct way to restore full employment while at the same time, redirecting or siphoning
Book Synopsis A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States by : Ali Alichi
Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Book Synopsis Concepts and Methods of the U.S. Input-Output Accounts - Scholar's Choice Edition by : Karen J. Horowitz
Download or read book Concepts and Methods of the U.S. Input-Output Accounts - Scholar's Choice Edition written by Karen J. Horowitz and published by . This book was released on 2015-02-16 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
